津城公交"变身"之始

随着2008年奥运会的临近,走过百年历程的天津公交,迫切感受到提升公交质量的必要。作为奥运协办城市,该市提升公交车档次的计划已经纳入议事日程,快速公交1路的开通就是一个重要标志,而中通客车无疑是首轮竞标的最大赢家。     

Behavioral monitoring of public transport users through a mobile communication system

There are various activities now taking place in ITS research and development in Japan. Advanced information and communication technologies have been applied to improve public transport systems, as well as automated highway systems. In the first part of this paper, we show three examples of public transport systems recently developed in ITS environment. These transport systems are operated in local cities and towns in Japan: the travel information system for tram users in Hiroshima, the demand responsive bus system in Nakamura and the co‐operative use of electric vehicle in Ebina. In the second part of the paper, we explain how we have monitored individual passenger on public transport using cellular phones for location positioning. Location positioning technology for mobile object is essential for the operation and management of ITS supported public transport systems. Furthermore, such accurate and detailed positioning data can be utilized for travel behaviour analysis in demand modeling. The mobile instrument and monitoring systems shown in this paper can be combined with any of the case studies of ITS application to public transport systems.     

A dynamic route choice model for public transport networks with boarding queues

Abstract

The concepts of optimal strategy and hyperpath were born within the framework of static frequency-based public transport assignment, where it is assumed that travel times and frequencies do not change over time and no overcrowding occurs. However, the formation of queues at public transport stops can prevent passengers from boarding the first vehicle approaching and can thus lead to additional delays in their trip. Assuming that passengers know from previous experience that for certain stops/lines they will have to wait for the arrival of the 2nd, 3rd, …, k-th vehicle, they may alter their route choices, thus resulting in a different assignment of flows across the network. The aim of this paper is to investigate route choice behaviour changes as a result of the formation and dispersion of queues at stops within the framework of optimal travel strategies. A new model is developed, based on modifications of existing algorithms.     

Optimal scheduling of public transport fleet at network level

This paper deals with the development of a strategic approach for optimizing the operation of public transport system that considers both user's objective and operator's objective. Passengers of public transport are assumed to seek a minimum wait time to conduct the trips, while on the other hand, operators are concerned with the efficient operation such as minimum fleet size. The average minimum wait time is to be achieved by creating an optimal despatching policy for each vehicle from the terminal. As for efficient operation the utilisation of vehicle should be maximised by having a minimum number of vehicles in operation. User's and operator's objectives are optimized within certain operational constraints such as vehicle capacity to maintain acceptable level of service. The i‐model is contructed in a bi‐level programming form in which the user's objective is minimized by dynamic programming and the operator's objective is minimized by various routing strategies. Furthermore, an algorithm and a contrived example are developed to solve and see the performance of the approach.     

Assessment of alternative ventilation schemes at public transport interchange

The provision of mechanical ventilation in a semi-confined public transport interchange is mandatory in Hong Kong. The authority recommends the general use of low-level-supply and high-level-exhaust airflow schemes that different from the traditional ventilation concept in that low-level emitted vehicle pollutants are best removed at source. Analyses of air quality at typical public transport interchange environments are conducted for the two airflow schemes. The CFD simulations are generalized by studying light and heavy traffic conditions with adjusted ventilation rates to match the change in vehicle emission levels to examine pollutant concentrations at passenger waiting areas and the elevated footbridges. While the conventional high-level-supply and low-level-exhaust scheme could perform better during light traffic loads, the difference diminishes with increased traffic loads during peak hours. On the other hand, the high-level exhaust scheme has an advantage of serving as a smoke extraction system during a fire outbreak.     

Estimation of a route choice model for urban public transport using smart card data

This paper describes a logit model of route choice for urban public transport and explains how the archived data from a smart card-based fare payment system can be used for the choice set generation and model estimation. It demonstrates the feasibility and simplicity of applying a trip-chaining method to infer passenger journeys from smart card transactions data. Not only origins and destinations of passenger journeys can be inferred but also the interchanges between the segments of a linked journey can be recognised. The attributes of the corresponding routes, such as in-vehicle travel time, transfer walking time and to get from alighting stop to trip destination, the need to change, and the time headway of the first transportation line, can be determined by the combination of smart card data with other data sources, such as a street map and timetable. The smart card data represent a large volume of revealed preference data that allows travellers' behaviour to be modelled with higher accuracy than by using traditional survey data. A multinomial route choice model is proposed and estimated by the maximum likelihood method, using urban public transport in ?ilina, the Slovak Republic, as a case study     

Treatment of seasonal tickets for public transport in estimation and application of mode/destination choice models

A new model system dealing with trips of length up to 100 km has recently been developed in Norway. A new way of dealing with seasonal passes for public transport is used in the travel-to-work model. The objective was to account for the fact that a respondent that posses a seasonal pass for public transport may behave as if public transport is free on the day they report a travel diary. On the other hand, we can not assume that public transport is free for respondents that used other modes of transport or that public transport is free to alternative destinations. This problem was solved by defining seasonal pass as a separate alternative in the form of a nest that included all modes of travel. The cost of a seasonal pass is a common cost for all modes in the nest and will thus not affect the choice within the nest. The estimation of this specification is compared with the more common approach of assigning an average cost per day based on the cost of a monthly pass and the number of workdays in a month. The comparison indicates that the “average cost per day” approach may produce biased estimates for several parameters. It also turns out that the cost parameter for seasonal pass is higher than the parameter for “out of pocket” cost, probably reflecting that there will be some uncertainty with respect to the actual use of a seasonal pass.     

A non-tradeoff decision making model of residential location choice

This paper presents the results of an application of a non-tradeoff decision making model to residential location choice. The model, referred to as an Elimination-by-Aspects model, provides a behaviourally acceptable mechanism for new residents to sift through the large number of alternatives and attributes that are present in residential location decisions. The mechanism deals with complex multi-attribute choices, by following a tree like decision making process. Using the most important attributes first, the decision maker successively eliminates alternatives which fall below a certain level. The model was applied to the location decisions of a number of new residents in outer suburban Melbourne. It was found to provide a good explanation of the decisions. Furthermore the residents' decisions were found to be sensitive to variations in the accessibility to schools, shops and the type of dwelling the respondent could afford.     

Development of commuter and non-commuter mode choice models for the assessment of new public transport infrastructure projects: A case study

This paper uses state of the art stated choice designs to parameterise modal choice models for commuting and non-commuting travel futures in the presence of new public transport infrastructure (variations of new heavy rail, light rail and dedicated busway systems). D-optimal choice experiments are developed for a set of labelled modal alternatives in which respondents establish a reference benchmark based on the existing service levels (for access, linehaul and egress trip legs) which is used in a computer aided personal interview instrument to generate future scenarios of service levels for current and prospective new modals options. We show that a fully integrated stated choice experiment provides all the information required to obtain behaviourally relevant parameter estimates (within a nested logit framework) for all but the mode-specific constants (MSCs). The MSCs can be calibrated for the current modes within a network model setting, giving the transport planner an appropriate model for predicting the patronage potential for proposed new public transport infrastructure services. A useful by-product is a new set of behavioural values of travel time savings for access, egress, linehaul and wait times.     

Route choice stickiness of public transport passengers: Measuring habitual bus ridership behaviour using smart card data

This paper explores how we can use smart card data for bus passengers to reveal individual and aggregate travel behaviour. More specifically, we measure the extent to which both individual and bus routes exhibit habitual behaviour. To achieve this, we introduce a metric called Stickiness Index to quantify the range of preferences of users that always select to travel on the same route (high stickiness) to those with a more varied patterns of route selection (low stickiness). Adopting a visual analytic and modelling approach using a suite of regression models we find evidence to suggest that stickiness varies across the metropolitan area and over a 24-h period wherein higher stickiness is associated with high frequency users where there is substantial variability of route travel times across all alternatives. We argue that our findings are important in their capacity to contribute to a new evidence base with the potential to inform the (re)-design and scheduling of a public transit systems through unveiling the complexities of transit behaviour.     

Impact of telecommuting and intelligent transportation systems on residential location choice

The impacts of telecommuting and intelligent transportation systems (ITS) on urban development patterns were investigated in terms of households' residential location choice decisions. A discrete choice modelling approach framework was used. A stated preference (SP) logit analysis was carried out to estimate the parameters of the utility function. An attitude survey of employees of selected public and private sector organizations in the Ottawa-Carleton Region (Canada) yielded the required data for model estimation. In addition to obtaining background information, the survey elicited SP responses by presenting a number of hypothetical residential choice scenarios defined according to the principles of SP experimental design. Results show that telecommuting and ITS measures are highly significant factors in the residential choice model. This leads to the conclusion that these reinforce dispersed residential patterns and encourage moves towards outlying sites. Implications of this conclusion for urban land development planning are noted.     

Transportation mode choice and city-suburban public transportation service

A model is presented to describe the dynamics of transportation mode choice in which the interaction between transportation users and a public transportation authority results in self-organization. The model illustrates that a sufficient number of connections between a central city and its suburbs are required for self-organization to occur whereby public transportation use and service will grow.     

The demand for public transport. part II. supply and demand factors of public transport

Abstract

This two‐part article, concerned with the way public transport ridership is affected by the various relevant factors, is based on the Executive Summary of The Demand for Public Transport (Webster and Bly 1980), the report of the TRRL‐sponsored International Collaborative Study on Factors Affecting Public Transport Patronage. Part I of the article, which was concerned with the social and economic conditions in which public transport operates, showed the importance of the background factors such as income, car ownership and land use on public transport usage: it also indicated how the longer‐term impacts of the more direct demand factors (fares, service levels) often show themselves in changes in car ownership levels, activity patterns (i.e. where people live, work, shop, socialize, etc) and land‐use development.

Part II reviews the current state of knowledge on the effects of changes in fare levels and quality of service and of the introduction of various traffic and transport measures (traffic restraint, bus priority, etc): it outlines current methodology on costing public transport services and draws the supply and demand sides together in a consideration of particular strategies which are at the disposal of the operator, the planner and the policy maker.     

Meta-analysis of public transport demand

The present study uses meta-regression in order to explain the wide variation in elasticity estimates obtained in previous demand studies, and provide summaries of several bus demand elasticities.One important finding as to the price elasticity is that the often cited rule of thumb of −0.3 holds good if quality of service represented by vehicle-kilometres is treated as an exogenous variable, but not when it is treated as endogenous.Based on the results it is recommended that demand models should include car ownership, price of petrol, own price, income and some measure of service among the explanatory variables and that the service variable should be treated as endogenous.In previous meta-studies in this field focus has been on own price elasticity only while this study also includes elasticities with respect to, level of service, income, price of petrol and car ownership. The short run for the US are found to be −0.59, 1.05, −0.62, 0.4 and −1.48 respectively.     

Determinants of modal choice in freight transport

In the next few years, exciting developments in the field of freight transport are likely to occur. The Channel Tunnel will be perceived as giving railways much greater distance of operation, compared to the current train ferry to/from Great Britain. The further development of swap-body technology will allow easier modal transfer and the creation, in 1992, of a single market in Europe will transform the pattern of trade. All of these are likely to have significant impacts on modal choice, and hence modal split, in freight transport. Reappraisal by many firms of the modes of transport used is likely but will it result in a net transfer of freight from road to rail and, if so, to what extent? To answer such questions, an accurate and reliable method of predicting modal split is required. Research in the past has concentrated on the development of modal split models based on generalised costs. These fail to explain adequately the prevalence of road freight in the UK. From surveys of freight managers within industry, it is clear that models to date rely too heavily on the economic cost factor and too little on behavioural factors (Jeffs 1985). This paper derives from a recent study of freight transport modal choice from the standpoint of the transport decision-maker within the firm. It attempts to shed light on the actual parameters which should be incorporated into a modal split model. Many variables appear to exert an influence on modal choice decision-making process. However, it is possible to categorise them into six main groups, namely: customer-requirements; product-characteristics; company structure/organisation; government interventions; available transport facilities; and perceptions of the decision-maker him/herself. It is the interactions and inter-relationships between these which ultimately determine freight modal split. This study has shown that the relationship between the outcome of the transport decision process and the values of particular determinants of modal split is not straight-forward, due to the complexity and variety of interactions involved. Perhaps one of the main reasons for researchers' failure hitherto to develop a successful modal-split model has been the preoccupation with techniques that rely on the development of common metric (e.g. generalised cost), which has led to the exclusion of some important explanatory variables along quite different dimensions. Another important issue concerns the appropriate level of aggregation. In order not to reduce the explanatory power of the key variables, it is important to work at a disaggregate level, although this does make substantial demands on data. The use of factor analysis enables both the aggregation of information without loss of behavioural reality and the specification of variables in terms of a common metric. In conclusion, freight transport has usually been examined within too narrow a framework. It must be placed firmly within the context of the total industrial process. The demand for freight transport is directly influenced by the level, composition and geographical distribution of production and consumption activities. Freight flows are complex and so it is highly unlikely that a universal mode-choice model can ever be developed. Future research should, therefore, be directed towards developing partial models in response to specific needs of those involved in decision-taking in the freight sector.     

提高公共客运的投资回报率

无论是发达国家,还是发展中国家,城乡公共汽车,火车和地铁等群体性公共交通行业大多是亏本的买卖,以前我对此不相信,自从我担任一家远洋运输公司的商务监督,跑遍全球38个国家和地区的城市,亲眼目睹了当地的公共群体性交通的状况,我才顿开茅塞.     

A survey of the Swiss public transport system and policy

This paper surveys Swiss public transport structure and policy. The regulatory regime is explained with the division between the two operators working under federal monopoly — the State railways (SBB) and the postbuses (PTT) — and the rest of the system. The rather complicated Swiss subsidy arrangements are described. The federal government's emphasis on introducing cheap public transport fares on environmental grounds through the federal transport measures (BTM) and the use of cheap fares in urban areas are discussed. The paper notes the Swiss people's rejection by a referendum of a federal commission's proposal for an integrated transport policy, though some of the solutions were introduced in their own right: the division of SBB into two parts, and the creation of the concept Rail 2000, later developed into Rail + Bus 2000. Finally, the paper reviews problems of the Swiss policy, including the future of cheap fares, making some comparisons with developments in Scandinavia.     

Unconventional funding of urban public transport

In the past decade public authorities have developed a wealth of creative funding mechanisms to support transit systems. This paper offers a taxonomy of various unconventional funding mechanisms (i.e. outside the domain of charges for transit passengers or general taxation schemes), based on a review of financial arrangements for public transport. The paper identifies which classes of funding are particularly successful for the financing of transit systems. This cross-sectional analysis uses a type of artificial intelligence method, viz. rough set analysis. It appears that the nature of the funding scheme and the degree of public acceptability are mainly responsible for the success of unconventional funding mechanisms.     

ITS applications in public transport: Improving the service to the transport system

This paper examines all the disparate technologies and techniques capable of smoothing the integration of public transport modes and services at both the urban and interurban scale. The paper focuses on the application of information technology and telematics solutions which have been designed to create as seamless a journey as possible from the point of view of the transport system user. The scope of the paper is therefore deliberately wide‐ranging and includes an examination of measures as apparently unconnected as smartcard ticketing, bus priority systems, automatic vehicle locationing, trip planning and on‐board information systems as well as new public transport services offering demand responsive travel and integration with taxi services. The paper intends to show how such technological solutions can be used to increase the attractiveness and competitiveness of fixed public transport networks in comparison to the door‐to‐door flexibility of the private car.