Relevance of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) for bulk shipping

Some scholars consider that today’s market conditions are in favor of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) rather than the Suez Canal Route (SCR). However, the number of bulk carriers using the NSR remains extremely limited, despite higher fuel prices since 2009 and subsequent significant fuel savings. In 2013, there were 53 transits via the Arctic, out of which 27 by oil tankers and 6 by bulk carriers. In this article we show that this result might be attributable to a factor, which is not considered in most studies: the spot freight rate to fuel ratio which governs ship owners’ decisions regarding the sailing speed. Due to a low ratio since 2011, the speed of vessels on the SCR is at its lowest level, and potential NSR fuel savings are too limited to provide a viable alternative. We further argue that, contrary to most studies, internalizing NSR environmental benefits marginally improves the attractiveness of the NSR.     

Does a carbon tax affect the feasibility of Arctic shipping?

The Arctic route has huge potential for shipping between Europe and Northeast Asia with significant savings in transit time and distance. However, GHG emissions from shipping would harm the environment of Arctic area. Potential Market Based Measures of GHG emission reduction (such as carbon tax) are under consideration but they may affect the economic viability of Northern Sea Route (NSR) for containerships. This paper investigates the economic viability of NSR against Suez Canal Route (SCR) under 2 proposed carbon tax schemes (fixed vs. progressive). Three different fuel oil types (Heavy Fuel Oil, Light Fuel Oil, Liquified Natural Gas) are used as main bunker fuel for the calculation of economic feasibility. Our result reveals that when there is no carbon tax on NSR nor SCR, or both routes are under a carbon tax scheme, no matter fixed or progressive, NSR is more economically viable, regardless of fuel type choice. When only NSR is under a carbon tax scheme, the viability depends on specific carbon tax scheme and fuel choice, but for the majority of containership sizes, NSR has lower unit cost. The result also suggests that for a given route, a progressive scheme in preferable than a fixed one and LNG would be an appealing fuel with lower unit cost.     

Determinants of the property damage costs of tanker accidents

This study investigates determinants of the vessel, oil cargo spillage, and other-property damage costs of tanker accidents. Tobit estimation of a three-equation recursive model suggests that, among types of tanker accidents, fire/explosion accidents incur the largest vessel damage costs, but the smallest oil cargo spillage costs. Alternatively, grounding accidents incur the smallest vessel damage costs, but the largest oil cargo spillage costs, reflecting the difficulty of controlling oil cargo spillage subsequent to such accidents. Also, oil cargo spillage costs are lower for US flag tanker accidents. A dollar of vessel damage cost increases other-property damage cost by $0.06, whereas a dollar of oil cargo spillage increases this cost by $1.55.     

Maritime routing and speed optimization with emission control areas

Strict limits on the maximum sulphur content in fuel used by ships have recently been imposed in some Emission Control Areas (ECAs). In order to comply with these regulations many ship operators will switch to more expensive low-sulphur fuel when sailing inside ECAs. Since they are concerned about minimizing their costs, it is likely that speed and routing decisions will change because of this. In this paper, we develop an optimization model to be applied by ship operators for determining sailing paths and speeds that minimize operating costs for a ship along a given sequence of ports. We perform a computational study on a number of realistic shipping routes in order to evaluate possible impacts on sailing paths and speeds, and hence fuel consumption and costs, from the ECA regulations. Moreover, the aim is to examine the implications for the society with regards to environmental effects. Comparisons of cases show that a likely effect of the regulations is that ship operators will often choose to sail longer distances to avoid sailing time within ECAs. Another effect is that they will sail at lower speeds within and higher speeds outside the ECAs in order to use less of the more expensive fuel. On some shipping routes, this might give a considerable increase in the total amount of fuel consumed and the CO₂ emissions.     

Robust supply vessel routing and scheduling

We solve the problem of tactical supply vessel planning arising in the upstream offshore petroleum logistics. Supply vessels deliver all the necessary materials and equipment to offshore installations from an onshore supply base according to a delivery schedule. The planning of supply vessels should be done so that their number is minimized and at the same time provide a reliable flow of supplies from the base. The execution of a weekly sailing plan is affected by weather conditions, especially in winter time. Harsh weather conditions increase the number of vessels required to perform the operations as well as the service times at the installations, and thus disrupt the schedule, leading to additional costs and reduced service level. We present a methodology for robust supply vessel planning enabling a trade-off analysis to be made between the schedules’ service level and vessels’ cost. The methodology involves the generation of multiple vessel schedules with different level of robustness using an adaptive large neighbourhood search metaheuristic and a subsequent discrete event simulation procedure for the assessment of the service level. To control the level of robustness we developed a concept of slacks and incorporated it into the metaheuristic algorithm.     

Reducing emissions through speed optimization in supply vessel operations

This paper examines how optimizing sailing speeds can reduce supply vessels emissions in the upstream supply chain to offshore installations. We introduce several speed optimization strategies to be used in construction of periodic vessel schedules. The strategies consider vessel waiting times before the start of service at installations and at supply base. Tests carried out on real instances from Statoil’s activities on the Norwegian continental shelf indicate that a 25% emissions and fuel cost reductions can be achieved without fleet size increase.     

Dynamic optimization of ship energy efficiency considering time-varying environmental factors

Nowadays, optimization of ship energy efficiency attracts increasing attention in order to meet the requirement for energy conservation and emission reduction. Ship operation energy efficiency is significantly influenced by environmental factors such as wind speed and direction, water speed and depth. Owing to inherent time-variety and uncertainty associated with these various factors, it is very difficult to determine optimal sailing speeds accurately for different legs of the whole route using traditional static optimization methods, especially when the weather conditions change frequently over the length of a ship route. Therefore, in this paper, a novel dynamic optimization method adopting the model predictive control (MPC) strategy is proposed to optimize ship energy efficiency accounting for these time-varying environmental factors. Firstly, the dynamic optimization model of ship energy efficiency considering time-varying environmental factors and the nonlinear system model of ship energy efficiency are established. On this basis, the control algorithm and controller for the dynamic optimization of ship energy efficiency (DOSEE) are designed. Finally, a case study is carried out to demonstrate the validity of this optimization method. The results indicate that the optimal sailing speeds at different time steps could be determined through the dynamic optimization method. This method can improve ship energy efficiency and reduce CO₂ emissions effectively.     

A ‘Less-flexibility-first’ Heuristic for the Placement of Inland Vessels in a Lock

Abstract

Inland vessels move goods along waterways (canals and rivers) and they visit ports. Because of their tidal nature, vessels make use of locks to enter ports or waterways. From a port management point of view, fast access to and from the port and high utilization of locks are important objectives. Where the former relates to low inbound and outbound waiting times, the latter relates to the placement of as many vessels as possible in the lock before its operation. This article includes a case study that relates to the operation of the Van Cauwelaert lock in the port of Antwerp, Belgium. Lock operation policy is as follows: vessels wait in front of the lock for a port administrator to assign places in the lock based on knowledge of the vessels’ dimensions. As such, there is no FIFO-discipline, but a ‘group-FIFO’-discipline, i.e. if n vessels are allowed into the lock, they are the first n vessels in the arrival queue. A heuristic algorithm is formulated for the placement of vessels in the lock. This algorithm supports the decision where to place the vessel in the lock, aiming to place as many vessels as possible from the arrival queue. At the same time, it supports the decision to start a locking operation or not, based on information about vessels that are announced but which have not yet arrived at the lock's entrance. The heuristic is called a ‘less-flexibility-first’-heuristic as it looks for pseudo-placements, showing which flexibility is left for the remaining vessels after placing a vessel. This article describes the implementation of the heuristic and provides numerical examples. A comparison is made between the heuristic results and daily practice, based on real-life vessel movements through the Van Cauwelaert lock in 2002.     

风帆助航对船舶主机油耗率的影响

加装风帆是船舶节能的有效途径,但风帆助航会影响船舶主机和其他系统的运行状况,对船舶能效的影响主要来自主机工况的改变。本文通过分析加装风帆后对螺旋桨工作特性的影响,推导出了计算主机油耗率的方法,并使用某超大型油轮(VLCC)的相关参数进行验证计算,证明此方法简单实用,可为计算风帆助航船舶能效指数EEOI等相关参数提供参考。     

Liner container seasonal shipping revenue management

This paper proposes a liner container seasonal shipping revenue management problem for a container shipping company. For a given weekly multi-type shipment demand pattern in a particular season, the proposed problem aims to maximize the total seasonal shipping profit by determining the number of multi-type containers to be transported and assigned on each container route, the number of containerships deployed on each ship route, and the sailing speed of containerships on each shipping leg subject to both the volume and capacity constraints of each containership. By adopting the realistic bunker consumption rate of a containership as a function of its sailing speed and payload (displacement), we develop a mixed-integer nonlinear programing with a nonconvex objective function for the proposed liner container seasonal shipping revenue management problem. A tailored branch and bound (B&B) method is designed to obtain the global ε-optimal solution of the model. Numerical experiments are finally conducted to assess the efficiency of the solution algorithm and to show the applicability of the developed model.     

Do microscopic merging models reproduce the observed priority sharing ratio in congestion?

A classical way to represent vehicle interactions at merges at the microscopic scale is to combine a gap-acceptance model with a car-following algorithm. However, in congested conditions (when a queue spills back on the major road), outputs of such a combination may be irrelevant if anticipatory aspects of vehicle behaviours are disregarded (like in single-level gap-acceptance models). Indeed, the insertion decision outcomes are so closely bound to the car-following algorithm that irrelevant results are produced. On the one hand, the insertion decision choice is sensitive to numerical errors due to the car-following algorithm. On the other hand, the priority sharing process observed in congestion cannot be correctly reproduced because of the constraints imposed by the car-following on the gap-acceptance model. To get over these issues, more sophisticated gap-acceptance algorithms accounting for cooperation and aggressiveness amongst drivers have been recently developed (multi-level gap-acceptance models). Another simpler solution, with fewer parameters, is investigated in this paper. It consists in introducing a relaxation procedure within the car-following rules and proposing a new insertion decision algorithm in order to loosen the links between both model components. This approach will be shown to accurately model the observed flow allocation pattern in congested conditions at an aggregate scale.     

The Northwest Passage: A simulation

We model shipping through the Northwest Passage in northern Canada in order to see if reported recent ice thinning has made this route economic relative to the Panama Canal. Container shipping between Yokohama to New York and St. Johns, Newfoundland is simulated by VSLAM for the two routes using bluewater ships for the Panama Canal and identically sized Canadian Arctic Class 3 (CAC3) ships for the Northwest Passage. Each route is broken into a series of logical legs, and environmental conditions and wait times are assigned. Ice conditions are modeled from historical records. Average speed through the Northwest Passage shows little seasonal variation. Round trips per year are higher through the Northwest Passage. The required freight rate (RFR) to recover all costs including capital recovery is calculated. RFR is slightly lower for the St. Johns to Yokohama transit using the Northwest Passage, and higher for the New York to Yokohama route, as compared to the Panama Canal. Possible future thinning of Arctic ice would further improve the economics of the Northwest Passage.     

Shipping log data based container ship fuel efficiency modeling

Container shipping lines have been initiating various ship fuel efficiency management programs because bunker fuel costs always dominate the daily operating costs of a container ship. As the basis of these kinds of programs, we develop a viable research methodology for modeling the relationship between the fuel consumption rate of a particular container ship and its determinants, including sailing speed, displacement, sea conditions and weather conditions, by using the shipping log data available in practice. The developed methodology consists of an outlier-score-based data preprocessing procedure to tackle the fuzziness, inaccuracy and limited information of shipping logs, and two regression models for container ship fuel efficiency. Real shipping logs from four container ships (two with 13000 TEUs and two with 5000 TEUs) over a six-month sailing period are used to exhibit the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The empirical studies demonstrate the performance of three models for fitting the fuel consumption rate of a ship and the industrial merits of ship fuel efficiency management. In addition, we highlight the potential impacts of the models developed in this study on liner shipping network analysis, as these models can serve as base models for additionally considering the influence of displacement and weather conditions on ship fuel efficiency and exhaust emissions.     

Should chemical tankers' tank cleaning waters be banned from discharging into the sea?

Entering of chemical substances into aquatic environment occurs either by involuntary accidents or discharging of chemical wastes resulting from tank washing operations of tankers carrying chemicals. MARPOL 73/78 Convention strict regulations on discharging of chemical residues left in their tanks to the sea, but permits the discharging of such residues provided certain conditions are met. In the present study; the period from 1996 to 2016 is examined and the number of new tankers participating in the chemical tanker fleet and the distribution of these tankers according to dwt tonnage is shown. The tanker fleet which consisted of 1.882 ships in 1966 reached 3.923 units in 2016. Accordingly, the volume of chemical merchandise carried by sea was 132 million tons in 1996, but it reached 287 million tons in 2016. According to the order books, it is understood that these figures will increase even more. The increase in the number of tankers and the growth of the capacities means that more chemical substances are transported at the same time and the tonnage of the chemical waste discharged to the sea is also on increase. Based on the scientific background which proves that chemicals cause biological accumulation and acute and chronic toxicity on aquatic life, and the results of chemical tanker development over the last 20 years that has been presented; It is necessary for maritime authorities to reconsider the legal arrangements for allowing chemical tankers to discharge chemical wastes from tank washing waters to the sea.     

Open registry tanker operations: a comparative cost analysis

The pull of economic gravity on traditional tanker operators towards open registries has been caused primarily by the need to be cost‐competitive in a market which itself is competitive. By using transcendental logarithmic cost functions to model the cost structures of open and traditional tanker operations, this study highlights the general structure of the production technology of tanker services, the cost differentials between the two flag groupings and provides insights into the comparative statics effects of their production functions in the form of elasticities of factor substitution and demand, and scale economies.     

Spatial decision support system for hazardous material truck routing

Shipping hazardous material (hazmat) places the public at risk. People who live or work near roads commonly traveled by hazmat trucks endure the greatest risk. Careful selection of roads used for a hazmat shipment can reduce the population at risk. On the other hand, a least time route will often consist of urban interstate, thus placing many people in harms way. Route selection is therefore the process of resolving the conflict between population at risk and efficiency considerations. To assist in resolving this conflict, a working spatial decision support system (SDSS) called Hazmat Path is developed. The proposed hazmat routing SDSS overcomes three significant challenges, namely handling a realistic network, offering sophisticated route generating heuristics and functioning on a desktop personal computer. The paper discusses creative approaches to data manipulation, data and solution visualization, user interfaces, and optimization heuristics implemented in Hazmat Path to meet these challenges.     

The impact of transportation alternatives on the decision to cease driving by older adults in Japan

This study investigated whether the availability of transportation alternatives for older drivers is a determinant of the decision to cease driving. We recruited participants from a total of 7827 drivers aged 69 years or older living in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan who were scheduled to renew their driving license between February and April 2011. In November 2010, we distributed questionnaires to collect data on predictors of driving cessation, and again in December 2012 to determine who had actually ceased driving. The relative impacts of factors related to driving cessation were then estimated. Of the 3089 respondents, 157 did not renew their license. The strongest determinants of this decision were having been advised to stop driving and if they had developed less confidence in their ability to drive safely. Even so, respondents were far more likely to have actually stopped driving if they were sure that someone else was available to provide a ride when they needed one. The final decision to stop driving is strongly influenced by personal convenience based on private transport, especially amongst drivers who have been advised to stop. The availability of public transport alternatives is not as important a factor in this decision.     

Real-time optimization of ship energy efficiency based on the prediction technology of working condition

Ship energy efficiency management and control is an effective strategy to improve the marine economy and reduce CO₂ emission. The determination of the best navigation speed under different working conditions is the basis and premise for real-time improvement of ship energy efficiency. In this paper, the working condition in short distance ahead of the ship related to navigation environment factors was predicted by the method of wavelet neural network, and then the best engine speed for the optimal energy efficiency under different working conditions could be determined through the established ship energy efficiency real-time optimization model. Further, by presetting the ship engine at this optimal speed, the ship energy efficiency could be guaranteed at the optimal state when the ship arrived at the navigation environment ahead of the ship, thus achieving real-time optimization of ship energy efficiency under different navigation environment factors. Experimental studies showed that the proposed optimization model was effective in energy saving and emission reduction, which could provide theoretical guidance for optimal sailing of the ship in service. Compared to traditional setting speed navigation methods, our proposed method has more practical significance to the improvement of ship energy efficiency.     

Model uncertainty and the management of a system of infrastructure facilities

The network-level infrastructure management problem involves selecting and scheduling maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation (MR&R) activities on networks of infrastructure facilities so as to maintain the level of service provided by the network in a cost-effective manner. This problem is frequently formulated as a Markov decision problem (MDP) solved via linear programming (LP). The conditions of facilities are represented by elements of discrete condition rating sets, and transition probabilities are employed to describe deterioration processes. Epistemic and parametric uncertainties not considered within the standard MDP/LP framework are associated with the transition probabilities used in infrastructure management optimization routines. This paper contrasts the expected costs incurred when model uncertainty is ignored with those incurred when this uncertainty is explicitly considered using robust optimization. A case study involving a network-level pavement management MDP/LP problem demonstrates how explicitly considering uncertainty may limit worst-case MR&R expenditures. The methods and results can also be used to identify the costs of uncertainty in transition probability matrices used in infrastructure management systems.     

Energy efficiency and time charter rates: Energy efficiency savings recovered by ship owners in the Panamax market

This paper presents the first analysis on how financial savings arising from energy efficient ships are allocated between owners and those hiring the ships. This as an important undertaking as allocation of financial savings is expected to have an impact on the incentives faced by ship owners to invest in more energy efficient vessels. We focus on the dry bulk Panamax segment as it contributes to around 50 Mt (5%) of total CO₂ emissions from shipping in 2007 and therefore its importance in terms of environmental impact should not be neglected. The time charter market represents a classical example of the principal–agent problem similar to the tenant–landlord problem in the buildings sector. We discovered that on average only 40% of the financial savings delivered by energy efficiency accrue to ship owner for the period 2008–2012. The finding that only part of the savings are recouped by shipowners affecting their incentives towards energy efficiency could consequently have implications on the type of emission reduction policies opted at both, global and regional levels.