Facing the challenge of the future by strategic planning for public transport in Germany

Dramatic deteriorations in the future development of demographic and socio-economic factors having a decisive impact on public transport demand in 2000 - 2030 are predicted. How can a reasonable public transport service be maintained under these changing conditions? Depending on the entrepreneurial objectives defined individually by each public transport company a range of strategic actions must be taken in the field of offer and performance: Advancing strategies, consolidation strategies and defensive strategies are discussed with the stress laid on improving service in order to attract more ridership.     

Flexibility in planning and development of a container terminal: an application of an American-style call option

The prosperity and social progress of developed and developing economies is highly dependent on the existence of efficient transport infrastructure. Nevertheless, current budgetary constraints are jeopardizing the necessary investments in new or existing infrastructure. New models for planning and managing infrastructure are now necessary to overcome the lack of public economic resources available. Port infrastructure is no exception and, due to the vast number of uncertainties involving these projects, it is relevant to maximize the capture of the latent value of flexible options. Incorporating flexibility in these projects, prior to the implementation phase, can be a solution that allows port managers to address future uncertainties and mitigate risk exposure. This paper analyzes the incorporation of flexibility in port planning through the use of an American call option to the physical capacity expansion problem. The rationale is to implement a flexible expansion plan, through options that can be exercised at any given time, that are able to deal with uncertainty in demand. The paper uses a case study – Terminal Container of Ferrol, in Spain – and the results support the hypothesis that imbedded flexibility will robustly increase the net present value of the project.     

Parking management for promoting sustainable transport in urban neighbourhoods. A review of existing policies and challenges from a German perspective

ABSTRACT

The organisation of parking is a key challenge to more sustainable mobility in urban areas, as its pricing and availability affect the rates of private car ownership and use. However, changing parking policies is a challenging issue for local politicians and planners because residents frequently oppose changes or restrictions to conditions they have taken for granted such as on-street parking in a public space. The aim of this paper is firstly to assess how the parking policy of an urban neighbourhood can be structured to contribute to more sustainable mobility and to increase liveability in the neighbourhood. The second aim is to apply the policies reviewed to an example neighbourhood. For this purpose, we systematically reviewed academic literature and identified five types of relevant parking policies: (i) maximum parking requirements, (ii) physical detachment of residence and parking space, (iii) residential parking permits and the limitation of available parking space, (iv) performance-based pricing and (v) parking as a demand management strategy. We discovered that most research focuses on econometric models about parking and that studies rarely address the effects of parking on the quality of life in neighbourhoods. Therefore, we need further research regarding the relationship of parking and liveability. We conclude that for the implementation of such parking policies in an example neighbourhood, the municipality needs to develop a mobility vision for its city. It has to understand parking as a tool for transportation demand management to increase the acceptance of parking policy concepts and to avoid spillover problems. Finally, in the German case, as in most other countries, states and municipalities need to redesign their legal frameworks to be able to manage parking supply better and to react to changes related to digital developments and parking. The findings have implications for other European neighbourhoods regarding the transfer from research to local circumstances and applications for the whole city.     

Urban spatial location advantage: The dual of the transportation problem and its implications for land-use and transport planning

Numerous recent studies have investigated the relationship between the location of jobs and housing in urban areas and how this relates to urban commuting patterns. Few have utilised the dual of the transportation problem of linear programming (TPLP) to provide insights into these relationships Accordingly, this analysis utilises the TPLP to determine dual variable values (shadow prices) for a study area in Dublin, Ireland. The approach determines the pattern of relative location advantage for the peak and off-peak travel periods and for public and private transport for 1991 and 2001. The results are set against the expected results for hypothetical urban structures. The results show that the pattern of relative location advantage has altered sharply over the study period for off-peak trip-making but has remained more or less the same for trip-making in the peak period. For the off-peak period, the pattern of relative location advantage has shifted from the central area to the periphery specifically for private transport trips; for public transport, the pattern has remained focused on the city centre. This indicates that private transport users can react more quickly to changes in the distribution of land-use activities than their public transport counterparts due to the relatively fixed nature of the latter mode. This implies that the public transport network needs to be reorganized to better reflect the revised pattern of trip-making specifically for the off-peak period. The results demonstrate the value of using the approach for providing information about the spatial organisation of land uses within cities and where future development may be targeted.     

The multi‐actor,multi‐criteria analysis methodology (MAMCA) for the evaluation of transport projects: Theory and practice

In this paper the multi‐actor multi‐criteria analysis (MAMCA) method to evaluate transport projects is presented. This evaluation method specifically focuses on the inclusion of qualitative as well as quantitative criteria with their relative importance, defined by the multiple stakeholders, into one comprehensive evaluation process in order to facilitate the decision making process by the different stakeholders. The MAMCA methodology is introduced by an overview of other evaluation methods for transport projects in the past and is illustrated by means of two practical cases. The introduction will lead us to the theoretical conception of the MAMCA method where we draw the attention to the proven usefulness of the MAMCA for the evaluation of transport projects and the inclusion of different kinds of stakeholders, individuals as well as groups, into the evaluation process.     

Comparison of data envelopment analysis and deterministic parametric frontier approaches: an application in the Norwegian road construction sector

This paper analyzes efficiency in the Norwegian road sector by using two competing methods. The first is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), while the second is Deterministic Frontier Analysis (DFA) with a Cobb‐Douglas kernel specification. Both approaches show similarities with respect to efficiency distribution. The rock‐blasting sectors potential for efficiency improvement is in the range 19–59 percent. Both approaches demonstrate decreasing return to scale properties for the average unit. There is a significant correlation between size and efficiency indicating that larger units perform better than smaller ones. Precautionary blasting mainly performed in densely populated areas is also found to explain much of the variations in efficiency scores. Any policy implication should therefore carefully examine exogenous factors. The main difference between the two approaches, which can be explained by the number of parameters to be determined, concerns level of scores rather than their distribution. However, there are arguments that advocate DEA rather than DFA in the rock‐blasting sector.     

Maximum acceptable gap between urban-guided transport vehicles and platforms for persons with disabilities: the findings of an experimental study conducted to inform policy decisions

The French ministry responsible for transport has commissioned a study aimed at providing data to determine the maximum gap size between vehicle and platform for guided transport vehicles, which would become a legal requirement. Specific experimental conditions were created, with a physical mock-up simulating a tramway and a platform and providing several gap configurations (between 20 and 50?mm for the horizontal gap and between 20 and 75?mm for the vertical step), and an experimental design based on the negotiation of gaps by wheelchairs users (mainly manual or electric powered). The experiment was conducted with 46 participants with different functional abilities. Data were collected on performance and gap negotiation time. The results of this study indicate that despite the failures observed for the 50?×?50?mm gap size during the experiment, most wheelchair users who took part in the test have successfully negotiated this gap.     

基岩完整隧道衬砌环向裂缝成因分析及其防治措施

文章通过向莆铁路线七座完整基岩隧道二次衬砌环向裂缝的统计,对隧道衬砌开裂的原因进行了综合分析,阐述了混凝土结构裂缝的危害大小程度,以及设计及施工管理过程中对衬砌裂缝的控制途径,并对此提出了相应的处理措施和建议.     

深部极软岩巷道补充锚注加固机理及应用

文章采用有限差分软件FLAC~(2D),对深部极软岩巷道进行辅助锚注支护前后围岩变形破坏规律进行了数值模拟,对锚注支护施作前后锚杆的锚固力、围岩的位移及塑性区的变化情况等进行了系统对比。结果表明,辅助锚注支护显著提高了围岩的强度和承载能力,有效地控制了深部极软岩巷道的围岩变形。     

Air transportation in a carbon constrained world: Long-term dynamics of policies and strategies for mitigating the carbon footprint of commercial aviation

With increasing demand for air transportation worldwide and decreasing marginal fuel efficiency improvements, the contribution of aviation to climate change relative to other sectors is projected to increase in the future. As a result, growing public and political pressures are likely to further target air transportation to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The key challenges faced by policy makers and air transportation industry stakeholders is to reduce aviation greenhouse gas emissions while sustaining mobility for passengers and time-sensitive cargo as well as meeting future demand for air transportation in developing and emerging countries. This paper examines five generic policies for reducing the emissions of commercial aviation; (1) technological efficiency improvements, (2) operational efficiency improvements, (3) use of alternative fuels, (4) demand shift and (5) carbon pricing (i.e. market-based incentives). In order to evaluate the impacts of these policies on total emissions, air transport mobility, airfares and airline profitability, a system dynamics modeling approach was used. The Global Aviation Industry Dynamics (GAID) model captures the systemic interactions and the delayed feedbacks in the air transportation system and allows scenarios testing through simulations. For this analysis, a set of 34 scenarios with various levels of aggressiveness along the five generic policies were simulated and tested. It was found that no single policy can maintain emissions levels steady while increasing projected demand for air transportation. Simulation results suggest that a combination of the proposed policies does produce results that are close to a “weak” sustainability definition of increasing supply to meet new demand needs while maintaining constant or increasing slightly emissions levels. A combination of policies that includes aggressive levels of technological and operations efficiency improvements, use of biofuels along with moderate levels of carbon pricing and short-haul demand shifts efforts achieves a 140% increase in capacity in 2024 over 2004 while only increasing emissions by 20% over 2004. In addition, airline profitability is moderately impacted (10% reduction) compared to other scenarios where profitability is reduced by over 50% which pose a threat to necessary investments and the implementation of mitigating measures to reduce CO2 emissions. This study has shown that an approach based on a portfolio of mitigating measures and policies spanning across technology and operational improvements, use of biofuels, demand shift and carbon pricing is required to transition the air transportation industry close to an operating point of environmental and mobility sustainability.