Bicyclist commuters’ choice of on-street versus off-street route segments

When using limited funds on bicycle facilities, it would be helpful to know the extent to which a new facility will be used. If a bicycle lane is added to a street, how many bicyclists will no longer use the adjacent sidewalk? If a separate bicycle path is constructed, how many bicyclists will move from the street or sidewalk? This study seeks to identify factors that explain a bicyclist’s choice between available facility choices—off-street (sidewalk and bicycle path) or on-street (bicycle lane and roadway). This paper investigates these issues through a survey of bicyclists headed to Purdue University in West Lafayette, IN, USA. The first data collected to address these questions were “site-based”. Bicyclists were interviewed on campus at the end of their trips and asked which part of the cross-sections along their routes they had used—on-street or off-street. The characteristics of a particular cross-section of street right-of-way were then compared against the characteristics of each bicyclist and his/her observed choice of street, sidewalk, lane, or path. Later, “route-based” serial data were also added. The study developed a mixed logit model to analyze the bicyclists’ facility preferences and capture the unobserved heterogeneity across the population. Effective sidewalk width, traffic signals, segment length, road functional class, street pavement condition, and one-way street configuration were found to be statistically significant. A bicycle path is found to be more attractive than a bicycle lane. Predictions from the model can indicate where investments in particular bicycle facilities would have the most desirable response from bicyclists.     

A dynamic automated lane change maneuver based on vehicle-to-vehicle communication

Automated driving is gaining increasing amounts of attention from both industry and academic communities because it is regarded as the most promising technology for improving road safety in the future. The ability to make an automated lane change is one of the most important parts of automated driving. However, there has been little research into automated lane change maneuvers, and current research has not identified a way to avoid potential collisions during lane changes, which result from the state variations of the other vehicles. One important reason is that the lane change vehicle cannot acquire accurate information regarding the other vehicles, especially the vehicles in the adjacent lane. However, vehicle-to-vehicle communication has the advantage of providing more information, and this information is more accurate than that obtained from other sensors, such as radars and lasers. Therefore, we propose a dynamic automated lane change maneuver based on vehicle-to-vehicle communication to accomplish an automated lane change and eliminate potential collisions during the lane change process. The key technologies for this maneuver are trajectory planning and trajectory tracking. Trajectory planning calculates a reference trajectory satisfying the demands of safety, comfort and traffic efficiency and updates it to avoid potential collisions until the lane change is complete. The trajectory planning method converts the planning problem into a constrained optimization problem using the lane change time and distance. This method is capable of planning a reference trajectory for a normal lane change, an emergency lane change and a change back to the original lane. A trajectory-tracking controller based on sliding mode control calculates the control inputs to make the host vehicle travel along the reference trajectory. Finally, simulations and experiments using a driving simulator are conducted. They demonstrate that the proposed dynamic automated lane change maneuver can avoid potential collisions during the lane change process effectively.     

A hybrid controller for autonomous vehicles driving on automated highways

This paper addresses the problem of the hybrid control of autonomous vehicles driving on automated highways. Vehicles are autonomous, so they do not communicate with each other nor with the infrastructure. Two problems have to be dealt with: a vehicle driving in a single-lane highway must never collide with its leading vehicle; and a vehicle entering the highway at a designated entry junction must be able to merge from the merging lane to the main lane, again without any collision. To solve these problems, we equip each vehicle with a hybrid controller, consisting of several continuous control laws embedded inside a finite state automaton. The automaton specifies when a given vehicle must enter the highway, merge into the main lane, yield to other vehicles, exit from the highway, and so on. The continuous control laws specify what acceleration the vehicle must have in order to avoid collisions with nearby vehicles. By carefully designing these control laws and the conditions guarding the automaton transitions, we are able to demonstrate three important results. First, we state the initial conditions guaranteeing that a following vehicle never collides with its leading vehicle. Second, we extend this first result to a lane of autonomous vehicles. Third, we prove that if all the vehicles are equipped with our hybrid controller, then no collision can ever occur, and all vehicles either merge successfully or are forced to drop out when they reach the end of their merging lane. Finally, we show the outcome of a highway microsimulation modelled after the Katy Corridor near Houston, Texas: our single-lane highway can accommodate 4000 vehicles per hour with neither drop-outs nor traffic congestion. It is entirely programmed in SHIFT, a hybrid systems simulation language developed at UC Berkeley by the PATH group. This shows that SHIFT is a well suited language for designing safe control laws for autonomous highway systems, among others.     

Development of realistic shortest path algorithm considering lane changes

Lane changes occur as many times as turning movements are needed while following a designated path. The cost of a route with many lane changes is likely to be more expensive than that with less lane changes, and unrealistic paths with impractical lane changes should be avoided for drivers' safety. In this regard, a new algorithm is developed in this study to find the realistic shortest path considering lane changing. The proposed algorithm is a modified link‐labeling Dijkstra algorithm considering the effective lane‐changing time that is a parametric function of the prevailing travel speed and traffic density. The parameters were estimated using microscopic traffic simulation data, and the numerical test demonstrated the performance of the proposed algorithm. It was found that the magnitude of the effect of the effective lane‐changing time on determining the realistic shortest path is nontrivial, and the proposed algorithm has capability to exclude links successfully where the required lane changes are practically impossible. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling dual carriageway lane changing using neural networks

Neural networks offer a potential alternative method of modelling driver behaviour within road traffic systems. This paper explores the application of neural networks to modelling the lane-changing decisions of drivers on dual carriageways. Two approaches are considered. The first, preliminary approach uses a prediction type of neural network with a single hidden layer and the back propagation learning algorithm to model the behaviour of an individual driver. A series of consecutive time-scan traffic patterns, which describe the driver's environment and changes over time as the selected vehicle travels along a link, are input to the neural network, which then predicts the new lane and position of the vehicle. Training data are collected from a human subject using an interactive driving simulation. The trained neural network successfully exhibited the rudiments of driving behaviour in terms of lane and speed changes. A major disadvantage of this approach was the difficulty in recording real-life data, which are required to train the neural network, for individual drivers. The second approach concentrates specifically on lane changing and makes use of a learning vector quantization classification type of neural network. Input to the neural network still consists primarily of time-scan traffic patterns, but the format is changed to facilitate the possibility of data acquisition using image processing. The neural network output classifies the input data by determining the new lane for the vehicle concerned. Performance in both testing and training was very good for data generated by the rule-based driver-decision model of a microscopic simulation. Performance in testing was less satisfactory for data taken directly from a road and highlighted the need for extensive data sets for successful training.     

Collision avoidance analysis for transition taper length

Transition taper length plays a vitally important role in work zone safety operations because too short a transition taper length will result in higher accident risks and too long a transition taper length could increase traffic delay. This paper evaluates transition taper length under various traffic conditions and road geometries using collision avoidance analysis. The longitudinal distances for lane changing and emergency stopping manoeuvres are respectively calculated using collision avoidance analysis. The higher value between the longitudinal lane changing distance and emergency stopping distance is considered as the expected transition taper length. The comparison of transition taper lengths from the collision avoidance analysis and current empirical transition taper formulae shows that the collision avoidance analysis has the capability of evaluating transition taper lengths. This paper also contributes to providing theoretical supports for these empirical formulae.     

Categorization of the lane change decision process on freeways

Traffic operations for new road layouts are often simulated using microscopic traffic simulation packages. These traffic simulation packages usually simulate traffic on freeways by a combination of a car-following model and a lane change model. The car-following models have gained attention of researchers and are well calibrated versus data. The proposed lane change models are often representations of assumed reasonable behavior, not necessarily corresponding to reality. The current simulation packages apply solely one specific type of model for car-following or lane changing for all vehicles during the simulation. This paper investigates the decision process of lane changing maneuvers for a variety of drivers based on a two-stage test-drive. Participants are asked to take a drive on a freeway in the Netherlands in a camera-equipped vehicle. Afterwards, the drivers are asked to comment on their choices related to lane and speed choice, while watching the video. This paper reveals that different drivers have completely different strategies to choose lanes, and the choices to change lane are related to their speed choice. Four distinct strategies are empirically found. These strategies differ not only in parameter values, as is currently being modeled in most simulation packages, but also in their reasoning. Most remarkably, all drivers perceive their strategy as an obvious behavior and expect all other drivers to drive in a similar way. In addition to the interviews of the participants in the test-drive, 11 people who did not take part in the experiment were interviewed and questioned on lane change decisions. Moreover, the findings of this study have been presented to various groups of audience with different backgrounds (about 150 people). Their comments and feedback on the derived driving strategies have added some value to this study. The findings in this paper form a starting point for developing a novel lane change model which considers four different driving strategies among the drivers on freeway. This is a significant contribution in the area of driving behavior modeling, since the existing microscopic simulators consider only one type of lane change models for all drivers during the simulation. This could lead to significant changes in the way lane changes on freeways are modeled.     

Naturalistic driving data collection to investigate into the effects of road geometrics on track behaviour

Road designers assume that drivers will follow the road alignment with trajectories centred in the lane, and move at the design speed parallel to the road centreline (i.e., the horizontal alignment). Therefore, they assume that if the horizontal alignment indicates the “designed trajectory”, the driving path indicates the “operating trajectory”. However, at present, they do not have the necessary tools to measure the relationship between the designed alignment and possible vehicle trajectories.The paper has two objectives: (a) to develop an understanding of the root causes of differences between road alignment and vehicle trajectories; and (b) to define and calibrate a model that estimates the local curvature of trajectories on the basis of the designed horizontal alignment.The two objectives were pursued by carrying out a naturalistic survey using vehicles equipped with high precision GPS in real-time kinematics (RTK) mode driven by test drivers on road sections of known geometric characteristics. The results provide an insight into the effects of road geometrics on driver behaviour, thus anticipating possible driving errors or unexpected/undesired behaviours, information which can then be used to correct possible inconsistencies when making decisions at the design stage.     

A kinematic wave theory of lane-changing traffic flow

Frequent lane-changes in highway merging, diverging, and weaving areas could disrupt traffic flow and, even worse, lead to accidents. In this paper, we propose a simple model for studying bottleneck effects of lane-changing traffic and aggregate traffic dynamics of a roadway with lane-changing areas. Based on the observation that, when changing its lane, a vehicle affects traffic on both its current and target lanes, we propose to capture such lateral interactions by introducing a new lane-changing intensity variable. With a modified fundamental diagram, we are able to study the impacts of lane-changing traffic on overall traffic flow. In addition, the corresponding traffic dynamics can be described with a simple kinematic wave model. For a location-dependent lane-changing intensity variable, we discuss kinematic wave solutions of the Riemann problem of the new model and introduce a supply–demand method for its numerical solutions. With both theoretical and empirical analysis, we demonstrate that lane-changes could have significant bottleneck effects on overall traffic flow. In the future, we will be interested in studying lane-changing intensities for different road geometries, locations, on-ramp/off-ramp flows, as well as traffic conditions. The new modeling framework could be helpful for developing ramp-metering and other lane management strategies to mitigate the bottleneck effects of lane-changes.     

Speed-spacing dependency on relative speed from the adjacent lane: New insights for car following models

This paper examines the traffic dynamics underlying a recently observed phenomenon, the so called “sympathy of speeds” whereby a high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane seemingly exhibits lower vehicular capacity and lower flow at speeds throughout the congested regime compared to the adjacent general purpose (GP) lanes. Unlike previous studies this paper examines a time-of-day HOV lane. During the non-HOV periods the study lane reverts to a GP lane, thereby providing a control condition for the specific lane and location. This work uses the single vehicle passage (svp) method to group vehicle passages before measuring the traffic state and extends the svp to bin vehicles in the study lane based on the relative speed to the adjacent lane. The extended svp method allows the work to also study the impacts during the non-HOV periods when the study lane serves GP vehicles. This work finds that: (1) during the non-HOV periods the study lane exhibited behavior indistinguishable from the adjacent GP lane. (2) The sympathy of speeds persists throughout the day, even when the study lane serves GP vehicles. (3) The relative speed to the adjacent lane provided a better predictor of behavior than whether or not the HOV restriction is active. In short, the car following behavior that gives rise to the sympathy of speeds is unrelated to the HOV restriction per se, persisting under GP operations as well.This dependency on the relative speed in the adjacent lane is an important finding given the fact that most existing car following models assume that the longitudinal acceleration of a following vehicle is strictly a function of the relationship to the leading vehicle in the same lane. Because drivers in general adopt a larger spacing when faced with a high differential in speed between lanes means that car following behavior also depends on the relative speed to the adjacent lane. This fact has likely gone unnoticed to date because generally the conditions that give rise to a differential in speeds between lanes are usually short lived, and thus, do not become apparent in conventional macroscopic data except under exceptional circumstances that include confounding factors like HOV operations.     

Modelling lane changing and merging in microscopic traffic simulation

This paper introduces Simulation of Intelligent TRAnsport Systems (SITRAS), a massive multi-agent simulation system in which driver-vehicle objects are modelled as autonomous agents. The simulation outputs can be used for the evaluation of Intelligent Transport Systems applications such as congestion and incident management, public transport priority and dynamic route guidance. The model concepts and specifications, and the first applications of the model in the area of incident modelling in urban arterial networks were described in previous publications. This paper presents the details of the lane changing and merging algorithms developed for the SITRAS model. These models incorporate procedures for ‘forced’ and ‘co-operative’ lane changing which are essential for lane changing under congested (and incident-affected) traffic conditions. The paper describes the algorithms and presents simulation examples to demonstrate the effects of the implemented models. The results indicate that only the forced and cooperative lane changing models can produce realistic flow-speed relationships during congested conditions.     

Modelling acceleration decisions in traffic streams with weak lane discipline: A latent leader approach

Acceleration is an important driving manoeuvre that has been modelled for decades as a critical element of the microscopic traffic simulation tools. The state-of-the art acceleration models have however primarily focused on lane based traffic. In lane based traffic, every driver has a single distinct lead vehicle in the front and the acceleration of the driver is typically modelled as a function of the relative speed, position and/or type of the corresponding leader. On the contrary, in a traffic stream with weak lane discipline, the subject driver may have multiple vehicles in the front. The subject driver is therefore subjected to multiple sources of stimulus for acceleration and reacts to the stimulus from the governing leader. However, only the applied accelerations are observed in the trajectory data, and the governing leader is unobserved or latent. The state-of-the-art models therefore cannot be directly applied to traffic streams with weak lane discipline.This prompts the current research where we present a latent leader acceleration model. The model has two components: a random utility based dynamic class membership model (latent leader component) and a class-specific acceleration model (acceleration component). The parameters of the model have been calibrated using detailed trajectory data collected from Dhaka, Bangladesh. Results indicate that the probability of a given front vehicle of being the governing leader can depend on the type of the lead vehicle and the extent of lateral overlap with the subject driver. The estimation results are compared against a simpler acceleration model (where the leader is determined deterministically) and a significant improvement in the goodness-of-fit is observed. The proposed models, when implemented in microscopic traffic simulation tools, are expected to result more realistic representation of traffic streams with weak lane discipline.     

Multi-destination traffic flow control in automated highway systems

Traffic flow control in automated highway systems (AHS) is addressed. A link layer controller for a hierarchical AHS architecture is presented. The controller proposed in this paper stabilizes the vehicular density and flow around predetermined profiles in a stretch of highway using speed and lane changes as control signals. Multiple lane highways in which vehicles have different destinations and types are considered. The control laws are derived from a model based on a principle of vehicle conservation and Lyapunov stability techniques. The implementation requires only local information. Simulation results are presented.     

Lane changing intention recognition based on speech recognition models

Poor driving habits such as not using turn signals when changing lanes present a major challenge to advanced driver assistance systems that rely on turn signals. To address this problem, we propose a novel algorithm combining the hidden Markov model (HMM) and Bayesian filtering (BF) techniques to recognize a driver’s lane changing intention. In the HMM component, the grammar definition is inspired by speech recognition models, and the output is a preliminary behavior classification. As for the BF component, the final behavior classification is produced based on the current and preceding outputs of the HMMs. A naturalistic data set is used to train and validate the proposed algorithm. The results reveal that the proposed HMM–BF framework can achieve a recognition accuracy of 93.5% and 90.3% for right and left lane changing, respectively, which is a significant improvement compared with the HMM-only algorithm. The recognition time results show that the proposed algorithm can recognize a behavior correctly at an early stage.     

Bicycle lane priority: Promoting bicycle as a green mode even in congested urban area

The main obstacles to boosting the bicycle as a mode of transport are safety concerns due to interactions with motorized traffic. One option is to separate cyclists from motorists through exclusive bicycle priority lanes. This practice is easily implemented in uncongested traffic. Enforcing bicycle lanes on congested roads may degenerate the network, making the idea very hard to sell both to the public and the traffic authorities. Inspired by Braess Paradox, we take an unorthodox approach to seeking latent misutilized capacity in the congested networks to be dedicated to exclusive bicycle lanes. The aim of this study is to tailor an efficient and practical method to large size urban networks. Hence, this paper appeals to policy makers in their quest to scientifically convince stakeholder that bicycle is not a secondary mode, rather, it can be greatly accommodated along with other modes even in the heart of the congested cities. In conjunction with the bicycle lane priority, other policy measures such as shared bicycle scheme, electric-bike, integration of public transport and bicycle are also discussed in this article. As for the mathematical methodology, we articulated it as a discrete bilevel mathematical programing. In order to handle the real networks, we developed a phased methodology based on Branch-and-Bound (as a solution algorithm), structured in a less intensive RAM manner. The methodology was tested on real size network of city of Winnipeg, Canada, for which the total of 30 road segments – equivalent to 2.77 km bicycle lanes – in the CBD were found.     

Time-dependent drivers’ merging behavior model in work zone merging areas

This study investigates the drivers’ merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the entire merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. With the actual work zone merging traffic data, we propose a time-dependent logistic regression model considering the possible time-varying effects of influencing factors, and a standard logistic regression model for the purpose of model comparison. Model comparison results show that the time-dependent model performs better than the standard model because the former can provide higher prediction accuracy. The time-dependent model results show that seven factors exhibit time-varying effects on the drivers’ merging behavior, including merging vehicle speed, through lane lead vehicle speed and through lane lag vehicle speed, longitudinal gap between the merging and lead vehicles, longitudinal gap between the merging and through lane lead vehicles, types of through lane lead and through lane lag vehicles. Interestingly, both the through lane lead vehicle speed and the through lane lag vehicle speed are found to exhibit heterogeneous effects at different times of the merging implementation period. One important finding from this study is that the merging vehicle has a decreasing willingness to take the choice of “complete a merging maneuver” as the elapsed time increases if the through lane lead vehicle is a heavy vehicle.     

Dissipation of stop-and-go waves via control of autonomous vehicles: Field experiments

Traffic waves are phenomena that emerge when the vehicular density exceeds a critical threshold. Considering the presence of increasingly automated vehicles in the traffic stream, a number of research activities have focused on the influence of automated vehicles on the bulk traffic flow. In the present article, we demonstrate experimentally that intelligent control of an autonomous vehicle is able to dampen stop-and-go waves that can arise even in the absence of geometric or lane changing triggers. Precisely, our experiments on a circular track with more than 20 vehicles show that traffic waves emerge consistently, and that they can be dampened by controlling the velocity of a single vehicle in the flow. We compare metrics for velocity, braking events, and fuel economy across experiments. These experimental findings suggest a paradigm shift in traffic management: flow control will be possible via a few mobile actuators (less than 5%) long before a majority of vehicles have autonomous capabilities.     

Estimation of driving style in naturalistic highway traffic using maneuver transition probabilities

Accurately estimating driving styles is crucial to designing useful driver assistance systems and vehicle control systems for autonomous driving that match how people drive. This paper presents a novel way to identify driving style not in terms of the durations or frequencies of individual maneuver states, but rather the transition patterns between them to see how they are interrelated. Driving behavior in highway traffic was categorized into 12 maneuver states, based on which 144 (12 × 12) maneuver transition probabilities were obtained. A conditional likelihood maximization method was employed to extract typical maneuver transition patterns that could represent driving style strategies, from the 144 probabilities. Random forest algorithm was adopted to classify driving styles using the selected features. Results showed that transitions concerning five maneuver states – free driving, approaching, near following, constrained left and right lane changes – could be used to classify driving style reliably. Comparisons with traditional methods were presented and discussed in detail to show that transition probabilities between maneuvers were better at predicting driving style than traditional maneuver frequencies in behavioral analysis.     

The smoothing effect of carpool lanes on freeway bottlenecks

Real data show that reserving a lane for carpools on congested freeways induces a smoothing effect that is characterized by significantly higher bottleneck discharge flows (capacities) in adjacent lanes. The effect is reproducible across days and freeway sites: it was observed, without exception, in all cases tested. Predicted by an earlier theory, the effect arises because disruptive vehicle lane changing diminishes in the presence of a carpool lane. We therefore conjecture that smoothing can also be induced by other means that would reduce lane changing.The benefits can be large. Queueing analysis shows that the smoothing effect greatly reduces the times spent by people and vehicles in queues. For example, by ignoring the smoothing effect at one of the sites we analyzed one would predict that its carpool lane increased both the people-hours and the vehicle-hours traveled by well over 300%. In reality, the carpool lane reduced both measures due to smoothing. The effect is so significant that even a severely underused carpool lane can in some instances increase a freeway bottleneck’s total discharge flow. This happens for the site we analyzed when carpool demand is as low as 1200 vph.     

An integrated solution for lane level irregular driving detection on highways

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) has been widely used in the provision of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) services. Current meter level system availability can fulfill the road level applications, such as route guide, fleet management and traffic control. However, meter level of system performance is not sufficient for the advanced safety applications. These lane level safety applications requires centimeter/decimeter positioning accuracy, with high integrity, continuity and availability include lane control, collision avoidance and intelligent speed assistance, etc. Detecting lane level irregular driving behavior is the basic requirement for these safety related ITS applications. The two major issues involved in the lane level irregular driving identification are accessing to high accuracy positioning and vehicle dynamic parameters and extraction of erratic driving behaviour from this and other related information. This paper proposes an integrated solution for the lane level irregular driving detection. Access to high accuracy positioning is enabled by GNSS and Inertial Navigation System (INS) integration using filtering with precise vehicle motion models and lane information. The detection of different types of irregular driving behaviour is based on the application of a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). The evaluation of the designed integrated systems in the field test shows that 0.5 m accuracy positioning source is required for lane level irregular driving detection algorithm and the designed system can detect irregular driving styles.