Strategic evacuation planning with pedestrian guidance and bus routing: a mixed integer programming model and heuristic solution

This paper presents a mathematical model to plan emergencies in a densely populated urban zone where a certain numbers of pedestrians depend on transit for evacuation. The proposed model features an integrated operational framework, which simultaneously guides evacuees through urban streets and crosswalks (referred to as “the pedestrian network”) to designated pickup points (e.g., bus stops), and routes a fleet of buses at different depots to those pick‐up points and transports evacuees to their destinations or safe places. In this level, the buses are routed through the so‐called “vehicular network.” An integrated mixed integer linear program that can effectively take into account the interactions between the aforementioned two networks is formulated to find the maximal evacuation efficiency in two networks. Because the large instances of the proposed model are mathematically difficult to solve to optimality, a two‐stage heuristic is developed to solve larger instances of the model. Results from hundreds of numerical examples analysis indicate that proposed heuristic works well in providing (near) optimal or feasibly good solutions for medium‐scale to large‐scale instances that may arise in real transit‐based evacuation situations in a much shorter amount of computational time compared with cplex (can find optimal/feasible solutions for only five instances within 3 hours of running). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertainty modeling for bus selection and allocation in a private transportation system

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the development of a probabilistic formulation that provides global optimum selection and allocation of a fleet of buses in a private transportation system of an organization where a third party is hired to provide transportation for its employees and their dependents. In this private transportation system, a fleet of buses is to be selected and allocated to serve employees and their independents on different prescheduled trips along different routes from the organization’s headquarters and residential compound where round-trip times of scheduled trips are subject to uncertainty due to random delays. We propose a probabilistic approach based on 0-1 integer programming for the selection and allocation to determine the optimal number and size of buses assigned to a set of prescheduled trips in a particular time interval. Examples and a case study are presented to illustrate the applicability and suitability of the proposed approach.     

A reliability‐based traffic assignment model for multi‐modal transport network under demand uncertainty

In densely populated and congested urban areas, the travel times in congested multi‐modal transport networks are generally varied and stochastic in practice. These stochastic travel times may be raised from day‐to‐day demand fluctuations and would affect travelers' route and mode choice behaviors according to their different expectations of on‐time arrival. In view of these, this paper presents a reliability‐based user equilibrium traffic assignment model for congested multi‐modal transport networks under demand uncertainty. The stochastic bus frequency due to the unstable travel time of bus route is explicitly considered. By the proposed model, travelers' route and mode choice behaviors are intensively explored. In addition, a stochastic state‐augmented multi‐modal transport network is adopted in this paper to effectively model probable transfers and non‐linear fare structures. A numerical example is given to illustrate the merits of the proposed model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Online calibration of an integrated framework for information‐based evacuation operations

This study seeks to online calibrate the parameters of aggregate evacuee behavior models used in a behavior‐consistent information‐based control module for determining information strategies for real‐time evacuation operations. It enables the deployment of an operational framework for mass evacuation that integrates three aspects underlying an evacuation operation: demand (evacuee behavior), supply (network management), and disaster characteristics. To attain behavior‐consistency, the control module factors evacuees' likely responses to the disseminated information in determining information‐based control strategies. Hence, the ability of the behavior models to predict evacuees' likely responses is critical to the effectiveness of traffic routing by information strategies. The mixed logit structure is used for the aggregate behavior models to accommodate the behavioral heterogeneity across the population. An online calibration problem is proposed to calibrate the random parameters in the behavior models by using the least square estimator to minimize the gap between the predicted network flows and unfolding traffic dynamics. Background traffic, an important but rarely studied issue for modeling evacuation traffic, is also accounted for in the proposed problem. Numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate the importance of the calibration problem for addressing the system consistency issues and integrating the demand, supply, and disaster characteristics for more efficient evacuation operations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A methodology for choosing between fixed‐route and flex‐route policies for transit services

Flex‐route transit brings together the low cost operability of fixed‐route transit with the flexibility of demand responsive transit, and in recent years, it has become the most popular type of flexible transit service. In this paper, a methodology is proposed to help planners make better decisions regarding the choice between a conventional fixed‐route and a flex‐route policy for a specific transit system with a varying passenger demand. A service quality function is developed to measure the performance of transit systems, and analytical modeling and simulations are used to reproduce transit operation under the two policies. To be closer to reality, two criteria are proposed depending on the processing of rejected requests in the assessment of the service quality function for flex‐route services. In various scenarios, critical demand densities, which represent the switching points between the two competing policies, are derived in a real‐world transit service according to the two criteria. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimization of headways with stop‐skipping control: a case study of bus rapid transit system

Bus rapid transit system is designed to provide high‐quality and cost‐efficient passenger transportation services. In order to achieve this design objective, effective scheduling strategies are required. This research aims at improving the operation efficiency and service quality of a BRT system through integrated optimization of its service headways and stop‐skipping strategy. Based on cost analysis for both passengers and operation agencies, an optimization model is established. A genetic algorithms based algorithm and an application‐oriented solution method are developed. Beijing BRT Line 2 has been chosen as a case study, and the effectiveness of the optimal headways with stop‐skipping services under different demand levels has been analyzed. The results has shown that, at a certain demand level, the proposed operating strategy can be most advantageous for passengers with an accepted increase of operating costs, under which the optimum headway is between 3.5 and 5.5 min for stop‐skipping services during the morning peak hour depending on the demand with the provision of stop‐skipping services. The effectiveness of the optimal headways with stop‐skipping services is compared with those of existing headways and optimal headways without stop‐skipping services. The results show that operating strategies under the optimal headways with stop‐skipping services outperforms the other two operating strategies with respect to total costs and in‐vehicle time for passengers. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conflict‐free time‐based trajectory planning for aircraft taxi automation with refined taxiway modeling

To mitigate airport congestion caused by increasing air traffic demand, the trajectory‐based surface operations concept has been proposed to improve surface movement efficiency while maintaining safety. It utilizes decision support tools to provide optimized time‐based trajectories for each aircraft and uses automation systems to guide surface movements and monitor their conformance with assigned trajectories. Whether the time‐based trajectories can be effectively followed so that the expected benefits can be guaranteed depends firstly on whether these trajectories are realistic. So, this paper first deals with the modeling biases of the network model typically used for taxi trajectory planning via refined taxiway modeling. Then it presents a zone control‐based dynamic routing and timing algorithm upon the refined taxiway model to find the shortest time taxi route and timings for an aircraft. Finally, the presented algorithm is integrated with a sequential planning framework to continuously decide taxi routes and timings. Experimental results demonstrate that the solution time for an aircraft can be steadily around a few milliseconds with timely cleaning of expired time windows, showing potential for real‐time decision support applications. The results also show the advantages of the proposed methodology over existing approaches. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.