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1.
In this paper, a case study is carried out in Hong Kong for demonstration of the Transport Information System (TIS) prototype. A traffic flow simulator (TFS) is presented to forecast the short‐term travel times that can be served as a predicted travel time database for the TIS in Hong Kong. In the TFS, a stochastic deviation coefficient is incorporated to simulate the minute‐by‐minute fluctuation of traffic flows within the peak hour period. The purposes of the case study are: 1) to show the applicability of the TFS for larger‐scale road network; and 2) to illustrate the short‐term forecasting of path travel times in practice. The results of the case study show that the TFS can be applied to real network effectively. The predicted travel times are compared with the observed travel times on the selected paths for an OD pair. The results show that the observed path travel times fall in the 90% confidence interval of the predicted path travel times. 相似文献
2.
The paper proposes a first-order macroscopic stochastic dynamic traffic model, namely the stochastic cell transmission model (SCTM), to model traffic flow density on freeway segments with stochastic demand and supply. The SCTM consists of five operational modes corresponding to different congestion levels of the freeway segment. Each mode is formulated as a discrete time bilinear stochastic system. A set of probabilistic conditions is proposed to characterize the probability of occurrence of each mode. The overall effect of the five modes is estimated by the joint traffic density which is derived from the theory of finite mixture distribution. The SCTM captures not only the mean and standard deviation (SD) of density of the traffic flow, but also the propagation of SD over time and space. The SCTM is tested with a hypothetical freeway corridor simulation and an empirical study. The simulation results are compared against the means and SDs of traffic densities obtained from the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of the modified cell transmission model (MCTM). An approximately two-miles freeway segment of Interstate 210 West (I-210W) in Los Ageles, Southern California, is chosen for the empirical study. Traffic data is obtained from the Performance Measurement System (PeMS). The stochastic parameters of the SCTM are calibrated against the flow-density empirical data of I-210W. Both the SCTM and the MCS of the MCTM are tested. A discussion of the computational efficiency and the accuracy issues of the two methods is provided based on the empirical results. Both the numerical simulation results and the empirical results confirm that the SCTM is capable of accurately estimating the means and SDs of the freeway densities as compared to the MCS. 相似文献
3.
Short‐term traffic flow prediction in urban area remains a difficult yet important problem in intelligent transportation systems. Current spatio‐temporal‐based urban traffic flow prediction techniques trend aims to discover the relationship between adjacent upstream and downstream road segments using specific models, while in this paper, we advocate to exploit the spatial and temporal information from all available road segments in a partial road network. However, the available traffic states can be high dimensional for high‐density road networks. Therefore, we propose a spatio‐temporal variable selection‐based support vector regression (VS‐SVR) model fed with the high‐dimensional traffic data collected from all available road segments. Our prediction model can be presented as a two‐stage framework. In the first stage, we employ the multivariate adaptive regression splines model to select a set of predictors most related to the target one from the high‐dimensional spatio‐temporal variables, and different weights are assigned to the selected predictors. In the second stage, the kernel learning method, support vector regression, is trained on the weighted variables. The experimental results on the real‐world traffic volume collected from a sub‐area of Shanghai, China, demonstrate that the proposed spatio‐temporal VS‐SVR model outperforms the state‐of‐the‐art. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
A nascent ridesharing industry is being enabled by new communication technologies and motivated by the many possible benefits, such as reduction in travel cost, pollution, and congestion. Understanding the complex relations between ridesharing and traffic congestion is a critical step in the evaluation of a ridesharing enterprise or of the convenience of regulatory policies or incentives to promote ridesharing. In this work, we propose a new traffic assignment model that explicitly represents ridesharing as a mode of transportation. The objective is to analyze how ridesharing impacts traffic congestion, how people can be motivated to participate in ridesharing, and, conversely, how congestion influences ridesharing, including ridesharing prices and the number of drivers and passengers. This model is built by combining a ridesharing market model with a classic elastic demand Wardrop traffic equilibrium model. Our computational results show that (i) the ridesharing base price influences the congestion level, (ii) within a certain price range, an increase in price may reduce the traffic congestion, and (iii) the utilization of ridesharing increases as the congestion increases. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
To increase our understanding of the operations of traffic system, a visco‐elastic traffic model was proposed in analogy of non‐Newtonian fluid mechanics. The traffic model is based on mass and momentum conservations, and includes a constitutive relation similar to that of linear visco‐elastic fluids. The further inclusion of the elastic effect allows us to describe a high‐order traffic model more comprehensively because the use of relaxation time indicates that vehicle drivers adjust their time headway in a reasonable and safe range. The self‐organizing behaviour is described by introducing the effects of pressure and visco‐elasticity from the point of view in fluid mechanics. Both the viscosity and elasticity can be determined by using the relaxation time and the traffic sound speed. The sound speed can be approximately represented by the road operational parameters including the free‐flow speed, the jam density, and the density of saturation if the jam pressure in traffic flows is identical to the total pressure at the flow saturation point. A linear stability analysis showed that the traffic flow should be absolutely unstable for disturbances with short spatial wavelengths. There are two critical points of regime transition in traffic flows. The first point happens at the density of saturation, and the second point occurs at a density relating on the sound speed and the fundamental diagram of traffic flows. By using a triangular form flow–density relation, a numerical test based on the new model is carried out for congested traffic flows on a loop road without ramp effect. The numerical results are discussed and compared with the result of theoretical analysis and observation data of traffic flows. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
Traditional macroscopic traffic flow modeling framework adopts the spatial–temporal coordinate system to analyze traffic flow dynamics. With such modeling and analysis paradigm, complications arise for traffic flow data collected from mobile sensors such as probe vehicles equipped with mobile phones, Bluetooth, and Global Positioning System devices. The vehicle‐based measurement technologies call for new modeling thoughts that address the unique features of moving measurements and explore their full potential. In this paper, we look into the concept of vehicular fundamental diagram (VFD) and discuss its engineering implications. VFD corresponds to a conventional fundamental diagram (FD) in the kinematic wave (KW) theory that adopts space–time coordinates. Similar to the regular FD in the KW theory, VFD encapsulates all traffic flow dynamics. In this paper, to demonstrate the full potential of VFD in interpreting multilane traffic flow dynamics, we generalize the classical Edie's formula and propose a direct approach of reconstructing VFD from traffic measurements in the vehicular coordinates. A smoothing algorithm is proposed to effectively reduce the nonphysical fluctuation of traffic states calculated from multilane vehicle trajectories. As an example, we apply the proposed methodology to explore the next‐generation simulation datasets and identify the existence and forms of shock waves in different coordinate systems. Our findings provide empirical justifications and further insight for the Lagrangian traffic flow theory and models when applied in practice. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
Heterogeneous traffic flow, characterized by a free inter-lane exchange, has become an important issue in addressing congestion in urban areas. It is of particular interest in many developing countries, that experience a strong increase in motorcycle use. New approaches to the heterogeneous non-lane-based flow have been proposed. However insufficient empirical verification has been made to estimate vehicle interaction, that is necessary for an accurate representation of mixed-flow conditions. In this paper, we focus on the porous flow approach to capture the complex interactions. The parameters from this approach are estimated from empirical observations. Video data was recorded and processed to capture vehicle interactions at a number of road sections in Surabaya City, Indonesia. The specific behavior of each vehicle in the traffic flow was captured by developing the pore size–density distributions, analyzing the class-specific critical pore sizes, and producing the class specific speed–density and flow–density diagrams. The results reveal how critical pore sizes are based on pore size–density distributions, the flow diagram for each vehicle class, and how traffic flow relationships for motorcyclists and the other vehicles exhibit significant differences. It is concluded that the proposed approach can represent the specific behavior of the motorcyclist in heterogeneous traffic flow, in both the situations of with- and without an exclusive lane for motorcycles, can clarify motorcyclist’s behavior in terms of passenger car unit of motorcycle, and can therefore support policy making on the improvement of urban transport. 相似文献
8.
Oversized vehicles, such as trucks, significantly contribute to traffic delays on freeways. Heterogeneous traffic populations, that is, those consisting of multiple vehicles types, can exhibit more complicated travel behaviors in the operating speed and performance, depending on the traffic volume as well as the proportions of vehicle types. In order to estimate the component travel time functions for heterogeneous traffic flows on a freeway, this study develops a microscopic traffic‐simulation based four‐step method. A piecewise continuous function is proposed for each vehicle type and its parameters are estimated using the traffic data generated by a microscopic traffic simulation model. The illustrated experiments based on VISSIM model indicate that (i) in addition to traffic volume, traffic composition has significant influence on the travel time of vehicles and (ii) the respective estimations for travel time of heterogeneous flows could greatly improve their estimation accuracy. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
Leonardo L. B. V. Cruciol Li Weigang Alexandre Gomes de Barros Marlon Winston Koendjbiharie 《先进运输杂志》2015,49(5):616-633
The Air Holding Problem Module is proposed as a decision support system to help air traffic controllers in their daily air traffic flow management. This system is developed using an Artificial Intelligence technique known as multiagent systems to organize and optimize the solutions for controllers to handle traffic flow in Brazilian airspace. In this research, the air holding problem is modeled with reinforcement learning, and a solution is proposed and applied in two case studies of the Brazilian airspace. The system can suggest more precise and realistic actions based upon past situations and knowledge of the professionals and forecast the impact of restrictive measures at the local and/or overall level. The first case study shows performance improvements in traffic flows between 8 and 47% at the local level up to 49% at the overall level. In the second case study, performance improvements were between 15 and 57% at the local level and between 41 and 48% at the overall level. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
This paper investigates the stability of the classical car-following model (for example, Chandler et al., Operations Research, 6, 165–184, 1958; Herman et al., Operations Research, 7, 86–106, 1959; Wilhelm and Schmidt, Transportation Engineering Journal (ASCE) 99, 923–933, 1973). Conditions for local and asymptotic stability as defined in the references cited are established for the linear model. These differ from those in the literature in two ways. First, it will be shown that, in the autonomous model when the product of the coefficient of proportionality α and the reaction time τ is less than or equal to 1/e, there exist oscillatory solutions with higher frequencies than 2π, although there are none with lower frequencies. Secondly, asymptotic stability is considered along with local stability. The derived condition for asymptotic stability is both necessary and sufficient. In addition, the condition depends on the frequency of the forcing term, with the sufficient condition for the asymptotic stability found in the literature being included as a special case. The nonlinear model is considered by linearization and numerical integrations. Some practical values of parameters are tested for the stability of the model. The analyses in this paper are extended to consider different values of α and τ for different drivers in the line. 相似文献
11.
This paper presents a new data mining method that integrates adaptive B‐spline regression and traffic flow theory to develop multi‐regime traffic stream models (TSMs). Parameter estimation is implemented adaptively and optimally through a constrained bi‐level programming method. The slave programming determines positions of knots and coefficients of the B‐spline by minimizing the error of B‐spline regression. The master programming model determines the number of knots through a regularized function, which balances model accuracy and model complexity. This bi‐level programming method produces the best fitting to speed–density observations under specific order of splines and possesses great flexibility to accommodate the exhibited nonlinearity in speed–density relationships. Jam density can be estimated naturally using spline TSM, which is sometimes hardly obtainable in many other TSM. Derivative continuity up to one order lower than the highest spline degree can be preserved, a desirable property in some application. A five‐regime B‐spline model is found to exist for generalized speed–density relationships to accommodate five traffic operating conditions: free flow, transition, synchronized flow, stop and go traffic, and jam condition. A typical two‐regime B‐spline form is also explicitly given, depending only on free‐flow speed, optimal speed, optimal density, and jam density. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
This article describes a methodology for selecting days that are comparable in terms of the conditions faced during air traffic flow management initiative planning. This methodology includes the use of specific data sources, specific features of calendar days defined using these data sources, and the application of a specific form of classification and then cluster analysis. The application of this methodology will produce results that enable historical analysis of the use of initiatives and evaluation of the relative success of different courses of action. Several challenges are overcome here including the need to identify the appropriate machine learning algorithms to apply, to quantify the differences between calendar days, to select features describing days, to obtain appropriate raw data, and to evaluate results in a meaningful way. These challenges are overcome via a review of relevant literature, the identification and trial of several useful models and data sets, and careful application of methods. For example, the cluster analysis that ultimately selects sets of similar days uses a distance metric based on variable importance measures from a separate classification model of observed initiatives. The methodology defined here is applied to the New York area, although it could be applied by other researchers to other areas. 相似文献
13.
In a variety of applications of traffic flow, including traffic simulation, real-time estimation and prediction, one requires a probabilistic model of traffic flow. The usual approach to constructing such models involves the addition of random noise terms to deterministic equations, which could lead to negative traffic densities and mean dynamics that are inconsistent with the original deterministic dynamics. This paper offers a new stochastic model of traffic flow that addresses these issues. The source of randomness in the proposed model is the uncertainty inherent in driver gap choice, which is represented by random state dependent vehicle time headways. A wide range of time headway distributions is allowed. From the random time headways, counting processes are defined, which represent cumulative flows across cell boundaries in a discrete space and continuous time conservation framework. We show that our construction implicitly ensures non-negativity of traffic densities and that the fluid limit of the stochastic model is consistent with cell transmission model (CTM) based deterministic dynamics. 相似文献
14.
Khewal Bhupendra Kesur 《先进运输杂志》2014,48(5):431-442
Mixed cycle length operation has been recommended for networks where individual intersections process considerably different traffic volumes. The signals to operate at lower or higher cycle lengths are determined heuristically. This paper demonstrates that the use of mixed cycle lengths as given by the heuristic is inferior to operation under a common cycle length. This contradicts findings in earlier studies, and the difference in conclusion is due to the use of updated optimization methodology. A procedure for incorporating the allocation of mixed cycle lengths into the global optimization of all signal timing variables by a genetic algorithm is proposed. The mixed cycle length timing plans obtained from this procedure are an improvement over those determined heuristically. Mixed cycle length operation is found to be of a more limited application than indicated in previous studies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
Highway traffic flow phenomena involve several complex and stochastic variables with high interdependencies. The variations in roadway, traffic and environmental factors influence the traffic flow quality significantly. Capacity analysis of road sections under different traffic and geometric conditions need to quantify the vehicles of widely varying characteristics to a common and universally acceptable unit. Passenger car unit (PCU) is the universally adopted unit of traffic volume, keeping the passenger car as the ‘standard vehicle’ with reference to its static and dynamic characteristics; other vehicles are expressed to its equivalent number in terms of PCUs. The studies carried out in this aspect represent the dynamic nature of impedance caused by a vehicle while moving through a traffic stream. The PCU values recommended by the Highway Capacity Manual are widely applied in many countries; however, their applicability is highly under debate because of the variations in prevailing local traffic conditions. There are several factors that influence the PCU values such as traffic, roadway, vehicle, environmental and control conditions, etc. Apart from vehicular characteristics, the other two major factors that influence the PCU of vehicles are the following: (i) road width and (ii) traffic volume. In this study, estimation of PCU values for the different types of vehicles of a highly heterogeneous traffic on 7.5‐ and 11.0‐m‐wide roads, using micro‐simulation technique, has been dealt with. It has been found that the PCU value of a vehicle type varies significantly with variation in road width and traffic volume. The results of the study indicate that the PCU values are significantly influenced by the said two factors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
In modern cities, a rapid increase of motorcycles and other types of Powered Two-Wheelers (PTWs) is observed as an answer to long commuting in traffic jams and complex urban navigation. Such increasing penetration rate of PTWs creates mixed traffic flow conditions with unique characteristics that are not well understood at present. Our objective is to develop an analytical traffic flow model that reflects the mutual impacts of PTWs and Cars. Unlike cars, PTWs filter between cars, have unique dynamics, and do not respect lane discipline, therefore requiring a different modeling approach than traditional “Passenger Car Equivalent” or “Follow the Leader”. Instead, this work follows an approach that models the flow of PTWs similarly to a fluid in a porous medium, where PTWs “percolate” between cars depending on the gap between them.Our contributions are as follows: (I) a characterization of the distribution of the spacing between vehicles by the densities of PTWs and cars; (II) a definition of the equilibrium speed of each class as a function of the densities of PTWs and cars; (III) a mathematical analysis of the model’s properties (IV) an impact analysis of the gradual penetration of PTWs on cars and on heterogeneous traffic flow characteristics.The proposed model could contribute as an enabler for ‘PTW-aware’ future Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems technologies and traffic regulations. 相似文献
17.
The essential distinction between the Fundamental Diagram Approach (FDA) and Kerner’s three-phase theory (KTPT) is the existence of a unique gap–speed (or flow–density) relationship in the former class. In order to verify this relationship, empirical data are analyzed with the following findings: (1) linear relationship between the actual space gap and speed can be identified when the speed difference between vehicles approximates zero; (2) vehicles accelerate or decelerate around the desired space gap most of the time. To explain these phenomena, we propose that, in congested traffic flow, the space gap between two vehicles will oscillate around the desired space gap in the deterministic limit. This assumption is formulated in terms of a cellular automaton. In contrast to FDA and KTPT, the new model does not have any congested steady-state solution. Simulations under periodic and open boundary conditions reproduce the empirical findings of KTPT. Calibrating and validating the model to detector data produces results that are better than that of previous studies. 相似文献
18.
Arrival processes are important inputs to many transportation system functions, such as vehicle prepositioning, taxi dispatch, bus holding strategies, and dynamic pricing. We conduct a comprehensive survey of the literature which shows that many transport systems employ basic homogeneous arrival process models or static nonhomogeneous processes. We conduct an empirical experiment to compare five state of the art arrival process short term prediction models using a common transportation system data set: New York taxi passenger pickups in 2013. Pickup data is split between 672 observations for model estimation and 96 observations for validation. From our experiment, we obtain evidence to support a recent model called FM‐IntGARCH, which is able to combine the benefits of both time series models and discrete count processes. Using a set of seven performance metrics from the literature, FM‐IntGARCH is shown to outperform the offline models—seasonal factor method, piecewise linear model—as well as the online models—ARIMA, Gaussian Cox process. Implications for operating data‐driven “smart” transit systems and urban informatics are discussed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
Precise estimation of the capacity for right‐turn traffic (comparable to left‐turn traffic in the USA) is of great importance to determine signal phasing schemes at signalized intersections in Japan, where the left‐hand driving rule is valid. However, in most signal timing procedures across the world, the lost time of right‐turn traffic is simply determined by the duration of intergreen intervals and thus lacks considerations of various signal phasing and driver behavior. Meanwhile, sneakers per cycle are usually applied to account for the number of drivers completing right turns during the effective red portion of the clearance‐and‐change intervals. As a result, an initial cycle length must be hypothesized in order to assess the total number of sneakers within the analysis period. Consequently, a time‐consuming iterative calculation process often becomes necessary. Therefore, the present study aims to develop a new lost time estimation method for right‐turn traffic to overcome the aforementioned drawbacks. Lost times of right‐turn traffic under three conventional phasing plans are theoretically formulated on the basis of a time–space diagram and shock‐wave theory. The new method is validated using field data, with case studies of its application in the signal timing procedure. Results indicated that the proposed method is capable of offering more accurate estimation than conventional approaches, which leads to shorter cycle length and simplifies signal timing process by eliminating an iterative check to determine the number of sneakers. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
An on‐street parking maneuver can often start a temporary bottleneck, leading to additional delay endured by the following vehicles. If the maneuver occurs near a signalized intersection, the service rate of the intersection might be reduced. In this paper, a model is built to analyze the effects of parking maneuvers on the intersection service rate. Based on the hydrodynamic theory of traffic flow, the perturbation caused by the parking maneuver is analyzed. Using dimensional analysis, we illustrate the relation between the background conditions, the distance from the parking area to the intersection, and the intersection service rate. Based on this relation, one can compute the service rate reduction caused by existing on‐street parking areas. A minimum distance between the parking area and the intersection to avoid such reduction can be accordingly found. Numerical examples based on empirical data from the city of Zurich, Switzerland, are provided to illustrate the practical applications. Although the analysis is based on streets with a single lane per direction, the findings can provide some insights regarding different situations. We hope such findings can be used as a basis for developing on‐street parking design guidelines. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献