Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable

Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR.     

Managing Shoreline Change Under Increasing Sea-Level Rise in Ghana

Relative sea-level rise will affect vulnerable coastal communities globally. Quantifying this effect on the coastal environment and infrastructure provides critical information that enables coastal managers to develop sustainable mitigation and adaptation measures. Modeling applications have enabled the past, present, and future trends in shoreline morphology to be investigated in detail. Predictive numerical models depend largely on the reliability of the input data. This article reports on using the Soft Cliff and Platform Erosion (SCAPE) numerical model to simulate future shoreline evolution trend in the central Accra coast in Ghana. The model input parameters include historic shoreline recession rates, wave data, tidal data, bathymetry, beach volume, beach topography, historic relative sea-level rise rates, and the shoreline orientation. The data fed the SCAPE numerical model which simulated the emergence of soft rock shore profiles over timescale of decades to centuries, to project future positions of the central Accra shoreline for the next 100 years under different scenarios of climate change. Simulated future shoreline positions overlaid on a 2005 orthophoto map of Accra enabled vulnerable areas and infrastructure at risk to be identified. It emerged that a highly populated community in central Accra will be inundated by 2065, while the Rivera beach resort will be eroded from 2035. A natural fish landing site in Osu (suburb in Accra) will be lost from 2045. The study has demonstrated that considerable ecological, economic, social, and national losses should be expected within the next century. Shoreline change management options should be explored to help mitigate the expected impact of the sea-level rise.     

Evolution of coastal hazards policies in the United States

The ocean and Great Lakes coasts of the United States are experiencing widespread economic and environmental damage from coastal flooding and erosion. During this century, public response to such coastal hazards has evolved haphazardly in response to particular disasters. Over time, however, the range of response has broadened as research has helped to refine public understanding of physical coastal processes, and specific disasters have been studied before longer term forms of institutional response have been formulated. Earlier reliance on engineered shoreline protection has been supplemented by beach nourishment, flood insurance, building and land use regulations, coastal zone planning, and other approaches. This article interprets the evolution of such public policy innovations in terms of a model that depicts the interaction of spatially differentiated systems of physical, legal, and cultural phenomena in the coastal context.     

Spatial and Temporal Modeling of Beach Use: A Case Study of East Anglia,UK

As tourists are sensitive to weather conditions and changes to the environments they visit, it is likely that climate change will affect coastal recreation in the future. To understand these impacts, it is first important to quantify how visitor numbers are associated with beach characteristics and weather patterns. Using the East Anglian coastline, UK, as a case study, information on the spatial distribution of visitors recorded from aircraft flights is combined with beach characteristic data in a Geographical Information System. In addition, surveys are undertaken at two beaches to assess temporal variations in visitation. The study finds a diverse range of characteristics are associated with visitor numbers. These findings are evaluated alongside the anticipated effects of climate change and management policies. Although it is predicted that warmer weather will increase visitor numbers overall, sea-level rise may reduce numbers at wide sandy beaches, which are currently most preferred by tourists.     

Altruism,selfishness and coastal resources

Abstract

The basis for coastal zone management in the United States is established in legislation. In comparison, Canadian federal and provincial governments have adopted a piecemeal approach for managing a variety of concerns examined here: water quality, ecological protection, public access, aesthetics, natural hazards, and water dependency. As a result of this approach, which is characterized by a minimum of federal, provincial, and interjurisdictional coordination, the British Columbia coastal zone is showing signs of stress. For example, major shellfish harvesting areas are being lost to water pollution; ecologically sensitive habitats are being consumed by urban, commercial, and industrial expansion; recreation and tourism opportunities are being impaired by clear cutting and other inappropriate developments; and infrastructure is allowed in flood and erosion‐prone areas. Recommendations to improve the approach to coastal management in British Columbia include a variety of innovations. New federal and provincial policies, legislation, institutions, and experimentation with local and regional integrated resource planning are required to better govern the coastal zone. Increased support for existing agencies, public involvement, and access to information as well as more common use of environmental impact studies are needed to justify proposed coastal developments.     

Perceptions of the performance of state coastal zone management programs in the United States. II. Regional and state comparisons

A mail survey of coastal user groups, academics, and state coastal zone management program managers was conducted to determine the perceptions of the performance of state coastal zone management programs relative to the protection of coastal resources, the management of coastal development, the improvement of public access, and the management of coastal hazards. Information on the perceived importance of the selected issues to each of the 24 states being studied was also solicited. Findings on the perceptions of various categories of interest groups, academics, and program managers with respect to the overall performance of state coastal zone management programs in the four issue areas were presented in an earlier article, “Perceptions of the Performance of State Coastal Zone Management Programs in the United States”; (Knecht et al., 1996). The present article draws on a subset of these data—the responses from the coastal user groups and the academics—and presents the findings at the regional and individual state level. In terms of perceived performance of state coastal zone management programs on a regional basis relative to the selected issue areas, the highest rating went to the Great Lakes region for its management of public access. However, the North Atlantic region received the highest performance rating for the three other issue areas: protection of coastal resources, management of coastal development, and management of coastal hazards. Looking at state performance with regard to the coastal issues judged to be of most importance to the states—the protection of coastal resources and the management of coastal development—respondents indicated that states should improve their performance in both areas, with the greatest need related to the management of coastal development. Overall, the states of the North Atlantic, Great Lakes, and South Atlantic regions were perceived to be performing somewhat better relative to the four issue areas than the states in the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico regions. While the data do not shed light on the reasons for these regional differences, we suggest that, in the case of the Pacific region at least, the differences could be associated with higher expectations among the resident population with regard to environmental quality in general and coastal management in particular.     

Underwater Cultural Heritage Policies of the United States Coastal Zone

Domestic management of historic shipwrecks and other Underwater Cultural Heritage (UCH) resources located in the United States coastal zone is extensively fragmented and a portion of it has significant implications in terms of international law. In the United States coastal zone, UCH (largely historic shipwrecks) falls under one of three general regimes, depending on where the resource is located and subject to specific and individual requirements: the General Maritime Law, the Abandoned Shipwreck Act, and the Marine Protection, Research and Sanctuaries Act, also known as the Marine Sanctuaries Act. After examining the development of and current status of these regimes, this article will suggest policies for a stronger, more coordinated federal management regime in United States coastal waters. It will specifically argue that a recent decision by the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit provides a well-designed paradigm that could be linked with pertinent aspects of the three identified regimes to create a unified coastal governance mechanism for sunken historic shipwrecks.     

Response of coastal zone management programs to sea level rise in the United States

Abstract

State coastal zone management programs are responding to the potential impacts of accelerated sea level rise through a wide range of activities and policies. This article provides a brief overview of the Coastal Zone Management Act and other federal laws that provide the basis for coastal state regulatory activities. It surveys the level of response to sea level rise by state coastal management programs in 24 marines coastal states, from formal recognition to implementation of policies addressing the issue. Individual state CZMP responses and policies that have been implemented or proposed are categorized. The adaptation of sea level rise to ongoing institutional objectives is discussed and policy constraints and trends are summarized.     

Land use implications of sea level rise: A case study at myrtle beach,South Carolina

Abstract

the prospect of global warming and consequent sea level rise will have important implications for coastal communities. this article examines the land use implications of alternate sea level rise scenarios on the city of myrtle beach, south carolina. current trends as well as high and low sea level rise scenarios are superimposed on the city's beach profile and near shore contours to estimate the type and value of land development likely to be impacted.

It is found that losses associated with accelerated sea level rise would be particularly high in the city's hotel district and that overall property loss could range from 21 to 60% of the city's total property value. to lessen these potential losses, coastal communities such as myrtle beach must choose among one of three policy options including: (1) barricade the beach, (2) raise the land, and (3) implement a strategic retreat. specific alternatives within each of these options are explored in turn. the article concludes that successful development plans will incorporate ground rules sensitive to and consistent with dynamic coastal processes.     

Armoring Against Coastal Climate Adaptation in the US: A Massachusetts Perspective

Massachusetts, like many coastal states in the US, stands to be impacted from climate-induced sea level rise. As a result, climate-sensitive coastal policy instruments are critical for providing adequate adaptation options, including an option to allow coastal features to migrate inland. But the migration of coastal features is under threat due to extensive private armoring. This essay highlights specific regulatory instruments at the federal and state level dealing with hard armoring using Massachusetts as an example. It argues specific federal and state regulations legitimize and incentivize hard armoring over other coastal land use planning methods. The current level of armoring in Massachusetts is highlighted and implications under current federal and state policy frameworks are explained. Suggestions for coastal states planning for sea level rise are discussed, including the need for state planning to take the lead. Recommendations for changes at the federal level are also highlighted.     

A Tool for Coastal Setbacks Demarcation over Rough,Impermeable Shores: The Test Case of Kavala Coastline (Northern Greece)

Although setback zones and lines are considered as a powerful coastal zone management tool ensuring public access, protecting the coastal ecosystem and minimizing natural hazards over developments, the lack of a solid and objective Mediterranean methodological framework for coastal setbacks demarcation appears profound. Especially for countries like Greece, this deficiency leads to long legal disputes encouraging illegal construction on the coastline. In this article a methodology on coastal setbacks demarcation over rocky, impermeable shores is proposed, followed, and implemented along a Greek shoreline, serving as a pilot case study. The methodology is consistent with the requirements of the integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) Protocol and the Greek legislation (L. 2971/2001), aiming to determine the “highest winter waterline,” accounting for the tidal and storm surge effects, the sea-level rise due to climate change impact, the extreme offshore wind and wave analysis, and the maximum potential wave run-up. Such a tool may bridge the gap between legislative provisions and actual ICZM Protocol implementation improving regional coastal management and planning.     

Champions as Influencers of Science Uptake into Australian Coastal Zone Policy

Australia's coastal environments are exposed to great pressures. Adequate policy and management measures are required to ensure the protection of coastal assets now and for future generational use. However, recent government reports and academic literature have highlighted that improved science uptake into policy is needed to ensure coastal communities are protected from impacts such as climate change. The literature suggests that individuals, coined champions, can play an important role in influencing the use of science by policymakers. However, a paucity of research exists surrounding the role of these individuals. This research explores the role of champions in enabling science uptake into policy in the Australian coastal zone, investigating champion characteristics and strategies used in influencing policymakers. A mixed-methods approach to the research was employed, integrating a paper/online survey of people involved in Australian coastal management and in-depth, semi-structured interviews with champions nominated by their peers from the survey. Fourteen key coastal champion characteristics were identified from the survey. Furthermore, the champion interviews identified strategies for influencing science use by policymakers. From these findings a conceptual model was created. In order to enable coastal champions to be fostered, a six-step process was developed that incorporates the use of the conceptual model.     

CZM in California: Successes and Challenges Ahead

California has a forty-year history of successful coastal zone management. The San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission, the California Coastal Commission, and the State Coastal Conservancy have protected and made accessible hundreds of miles of shoreline. While each agency has played a critical role, this article focuses on the Coastal Commission. Implementing the California Coastal Act, the Coastal Commission has partnered with local government, other agencies, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the public to concentrate new development in already developed areas, and much of the rural coastal zone looks as it did in 1972. The Commission has protected and expanded public shoreline access through its regulatory actions. Using strong ecological science the Commission has protected a wide variety of sensitive habitats and wetlands. And under the authority of the Coastal Zone Management Act, the Commission has reviewed thousands of federal projects to assure that they are consistent with the Coastal Act. Challenges continue, though, including population growth, sea-level rise, and inadequate funding to update local coastal land use plans to address new issues, such as climate change adaptation. New investment is needed at the national, state, and local level to continue the success of the California program.     

Introduction to the Theme Issue: The Role of Geography in Contemporary Coastal Management Policy and Practice

This article provides a brief introduction to the theme issue on “The role of geography in contemporary coastal management policy and practice.” The theme is addressed through a suite of seven articles that collectively consider how geographical understandings and methods relate to contemporary coastal policy and practice. The key theme to emerge from the articles is that geography forms an underlying framework for considering integrated coastal management, largely due to the integrative nature of geography itself.     

Learning from Ecosystem-Based Management in Practice

We explore how marine ecosystem–based management (EBM) is translated from theory to practice at six sites with varying ecological and institutional contexts. Based on these case studies, we report on the goals, strategies, and outcomes of each project and what we can learn from these efforts to guide future implementation and assessment. In particular, we focus on how projects dealt with the challenges of working across geographic scales and diverse governance arrangements. While we hypothesized that EBM in the United States would be distinct from EBM in developing countries due to differences in social and political factors, we found that sites faced similar challenges. Variation among sites appeared to be more closely related to the preexisting management context and the scale at which the projects began rather than to clear differences between the United States and developing country contexts. EBM project implementers were able to overcome many of these challenges by focusing on a limited number of specific objectives, starting at a small scale, pursuing adaptive management, and monitoring a diverse set of indicators. These findings are directly relevant to current and future EBM efforts in these and other places.     

GIS-Based Coastal Behavior Modeling and Simulation of Potential Land and Property Loss: Implications of Sea-Level Rise at Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach,Sydney (Australia)

Rising sea level potentially poses a threat to many coastal areas, thereby possibly affecting coastal environments, including human assets. Taking into account the precau--tionary principle demanded at the Framework Convention for Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, coastal managers and planners are required to evaluate the possibility of both physical and economic impacts of sea-level rise. However, long-term and cost-intensive data capture is often not affordable for a first estimation of general trends. To determine physical and economic impacts on a spatial scale of less than 10 km, a rapid and low-cost method is required. A Geographic Information System (GIS), in combination with readily available data and two coastal behaviour models (the Bruun-GIS Model and the Aggradation Model) was applied to simulate shoreline recession caused by a rise in sea level. In addition, the potential impacts of a 50-year design storm were considered in conjunction with sea-level rise. The monetary vulnerability was assessed and combined with the simulated recession rates. This procedure provides a first estimate on the potential risk a locality (here Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach) may face due to the impacts of sea-level rise and/or coastal storms. Overall, the modelling outcome suggests that long-term erosion problems associated with rising sea level are less significant in comparison with those impacts associated with short-term coastal storm events for Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach.     

Merging Socioeconomic Imperatives with Geospatial Data: A Non-Negotiable for Coastal Risk Management in South Africa

The current approach to coastal development set-back delineation in South Africa is producing high-tech empirical methodologies that attempt to pinpoint areas at risk from physical coastal processes and the subsequent positioning of set-backs in relation to these risk areas. Experience in the Western Cape province of South Africa has shown that this approach contributes only partially to coastal risk management. In the context of an urban and peri-urban environment, and bearing in mind that set-backs have significant socioeconomic implications, the development of a set-back line at the local scale requires an expansion beyond just relying on the numerical modeling of physical coastal processes. This research reveals that such an approach is parochial and socially detached and a more inclusive and integrated approach grounded in and spanning localized social, cultural, economic, political, and ecological intricacies of the coastal space is required. Fundamental to achieving this is a re-consideration of the broader project management processes applied in the development of set-backs. The article concludes with a set of principles and guidelines for determining set-backs in complex coastal contexts at the local scale.     

Implementing coastal zone management: 1972–1990

Abstract

The implementation history of the Coastal Zone Management Act offers insights into the process of long‐term intergovernmental policy implementation. This five‐stage history is explained as a coproduction process, in which coastal state, environmental, and development advocacy coalitions interacted with congressional committees and the federal coastal office to shape coastal policy and manage coastal development. The coproduction approach proved invaluable during the Reagan assault on the coastal program, when the states and Congress assumed responsibility for keeping the program alive. Acknowledging underlying stakeholder dynamics as the basis for coastal program evaluation could strengthen future coastal management implementation.     

Coastal Erosion in Ghana: Causes,Policies, and Management

Coastal erosion is a serious problem that affects the safety and livelihoods of many coastal dwellers along Ghana's coast. Despite the fact that coastal erosion is a natural phenomenon, erosion trends have been largely aggravated by human-induced factors. This study analyzed shoreline change rates for three neighbouring coastal communities in the Central region of Ghana; Elmina, Cape Coast and Moree. Two epochs were analyzed, 1974–2012 (medium-term) and 2005–2012 (short-term), using ArcGIS and Digital Shoreline Analysis System. Overall, the entire study area recorded average shoreline change rates of ?1.24 myear^?1 and ?0.85 myear^?1 in the medium-term and short-term period respectively. Less consolidated shoreline segments recorded higher erosion rates in both periods while cliffs and rocky segments experienced very little erosion or high stability. Because shorelines undergoing chronic erosion do not fully recover after short-term erosion events such as storms, facilities located close to such shorelines are threatened. Taking a proactive approach to coastal erosion management, such as coastal sand mining prevention, inter-sectoral land use management and adopting a construction setback approach may be prudent for the long-term management of the coast since this recognizes future shoreline changes and safeguards coastal landscape for other uses.