建立船体结构疲劳设计曲线的贝叶斯方法

基于船体结构疲劳试验的小样本特点,探讨了建立疲劳设计曲线(S-N或P-S-N曲线)的贝叶斯方法.将传统疲劳模型中的未知参数处理成离散型随机变量,利用贝叶斯公式求出参数向量的后验概率密度,在此基础上建立不同存活率下的贝叶斯疲劳设计曲线方程并编程求解.算例表明,贝叶斯方法不仅弥补了样本小带来的统计误差,而且合理解决了疲劳试验数据中的越出问题.     

建立船体结构疲劳设计曲线的贝叶斯方法

基于船体结构疲劳试验的小样本特点，探讨了建立疲劳设计曲线（S-N或P-S-N曲线）的贝叶斯方法。将传统疲劳模型中的未知参数处理成离散型随机变量，利用贝叶斯公式求出在数向量的后验概率密度，在此基础上建立不同存活率下的贝叶斯疲劳设计曲线方程并编程求解。算例表明，贝叶斯方法不仅弥补了样本小带来的统计误差，而且合理解决了疲劳试验数据中的越出问题。     

潜艇耐压壳体周疲劳分析及贝叶斯法寿命估算

对潜艇耐压壳体的低周疲劳问题进行了分析和研究,并应用贝叶斯方法对潜艇耐压壳体疲劳热点的剩余疲劳寿命进行估算,给出了一种在仿真量不足的情况下进行统计推新的新途径,在一定程度上弥补了传统方法的缺陷。     

钛合金疲劳裂纹扩展的区间非概率可靠性分析

钛合金疲劳裂纹扩展过程受不确定因素影响,导致疲劳分析中的参数具有不确定性,有必要进行可靠性分析。本文针对概率可靠性方法对样本数量和统计信息要求较高且计算量大的局限性,提出了钛合金疲劳裂纹扩展区间非概率可靠性分析方法,将Paris模型中的不确定参数以区间表示,基于疲劳寿命模型表征了疲劳裂纹扩展的区间非概率可靠性指标,利用区间数学理论对非概率可靠性指标进行求解。通过实例计算表明,随着区间干涉程度的增加,非概率可靠性指标呈线性趋势从99.231%降至90.846%,且计算结果较概率可靠性方法更为保守,在工程应用中偏于安全。     

疲劳裂纹扩展规律的正切模型

为了用解析方法合理地描述疲劳裂纹扩展的三个阶段,提出了一种新的疲劳裂纹扩展模型——正切模型。该模型驱动力使用应力强度因子幅值K,能够描述裂纹扩展的三个阶段,且只有四个参数需要确定。通过非线性拟合确定疲劳裂纹扩展正切模型中的四个参数。研究了门槛值Kth和失稳值Kf与应力比R的关系,以及四个参数对裂纹扩展速率的影响。最后比较了试验值、九参数模型和正切模型在疲劳裂纹扩展速率曲线和裂纹扩展长度变化曲线等方面的差别,发现正切模型结果与试验数据较为吻合。该模型描述的裂纹扩展长度变化曲线能够较好地用于疲劳寿命评估。     

金属疲劳裂纹扩展速率的贝叶斯正则化BP神经网络预测

人工神经网络是进行预报裂纹扩展率的一个重要方法。文章针对不同金属的疲劳裂纹扩展速率分别建立贝叶斯正则化BP(Back Propagation)神经网络,将各材料在不同应力比R下的疲劳裂纹扩展速率试验数据分为两部分,一部分用来进行训练网络,另一部分用来测试训练好的网络,检验其泛化能力。将从文献中获取的4种不同金属材料的疲劳试验数据作为算例,来检验网络的性能。计算结果表明贝叶斯正则化BP神经网络不仅对训练样本有很好的拟合能力,而且对于未训练过的测试样本也有较好的预测能力,即有较强的泛化能力。同时,指出了建立网络时减少门槛值附近的试验样本点,可以提高网络的预测能力。研究结果表明,该方法可以方便地获得不同应力比R下的疲劳裂纹扩展速率,从而达到减少试验次数,充分利用已有数据的目的。并且可以进一步应用于其他金属的疲劳裂纹扩展速率的预报。     

基于神经网络模型的波候变化影响下深海系泊缆疲劳损伤评估

全球气候变化导致波候变化显著,这一现象会造成系泊缆疲劳损伤的加速累积,危及到海洋平台的正常作业,甚至引发重大安全事故。然而,目前常用的频率和时域疲劳损伤评估方法均无法既准确又高效地计算考虑波候变化后的疲劳损伤。本文提出了一种基于贝叶斯正则化BP(back propagation)神经网络算法的深海浮式平台系泊系统疲劳损伤评估方法,在保证疲劳损伤评估精度的同时大幅提升了计算效率。以作业于北海的某半潜式平台和某单立柱平台及其系泊系统为研究对象,探究了波候变化对深海浮式平台系泊缆的全寿命期内疲劳损伤的影响规律,验证了方法的可行性与准确性,可为深海系泊缆的疲劳设计提供技术指导和解决方案。     

基于临界面理论的焊接结构多轴疲劳寿命评估方法

目前多轴疲劳理论难以用于实际工程中焊接结构的疲劳寿命评估.文章将等效热点应力法与双参数临界面理论相结合,提出了一种能够应用于复杂焊接结构的多轴疲劳寿命评估方法.分别阐述了双参数临界面法的损伤参数、控制方程以及等效热点应力的定义,给出了焊接结构多轴疲劳寿命的评估过程,并应用有限元数值模拟验证了该方法的可行性.     

船舶水上交通相对风险随机性的贝叶斯分析

船舶水上交通风险的评估一直是业内研究人员十分重视的研究课题。采用贝叶斯概率理论方法,通过贝叶斯统计、估计,结合国内引航及航运单位的船舶事故的实际情况,进行了事故发生频率与后果情况的贝叶斯概率评估。并着重就贝叶斯方法在船舶水上交通风险评估中的随机性特性问题进行了探讨。结论证明贝叶斯评估方法得到的结果具有良好的评估效果。     

疲劳裂纹扩展模型中表征裂纹闭合水平参数的确定

借助7075-T 6铝合金、6013铝合金以及0.45w t%碳钢的疲劳试验数据,结合上述材料的力学性能参数,通过非线性最小平方拟合方法,研究了表征裂纹闭合水平参数k对疲劳裂纹扩展率的影响。研究结果表明,对于宏观裂纹范围内的疲劳裂纹扩展,参数k只要大于某个值就对疲劳裂纹扩展率无影响;而对于小裂纹阶段的疲劳裂纹扩展,参数k对疲劳裂纹扩展率的影响较明显,因此参数k的大小主要取决于小裂纹扩展数据。依据0.45w t%碳钢疲劳试验数据,相应参数k的建议值为6 000m-1。     

Fatigue assessment of ship structures based on equivalent wave probability (EWP) concept (1st report): Proposal of EWP concept and its verification by 8600TEU container ship's onboard hull monitoring

A long-term fatigue assessment method based on EWP concept is proposed. ‘Equivalent wave probability (EWP)’ is the fictitious (H_S, T_m)'s joint probability distribution function (JPDF), for which the frequency distribution of the stress variance R², f(R²), calculated by spectral fatigue assessment agrees with the observed one. By choosing probability function p(R²) to fit f(R²), the R²'s statistical model (R2SM) which represents the relation between the EWP parameters and R²'s population parameters is developed, and the Bayesian inference, which can estimate the EWP parameters from the measured R² data is developed. The EWP at the reference position (RP) can be determined by Bayesian inference from the measured R² through the R2SM at RP. To accurately estimate the measured f(R²) at the target position (TP) from the EWP at RP, an R2SM correction factor at TP, denoted by α_TP, is introduced in the process of assimilating R2SM. The resulting R2SM, which has been assimilated by Bayesian inference using measured data, is referred to as data-assimilated R2SM (DAR2SM). The fatigue assessment using EWP at RP as the input of DAR2SM at TP is called Bayes-EWP-DAR2SM analysis. The validity of Bayes-EWP-DAR2SM analysis is verified by using the long-term (about four years) multi(12)-position hull monitoring (HM) data of an 8,600TEU container ship. The fatigue damages estimated by Bayes-EWP-DAR2SM based solely on the stress history of a single sensor are in agreement with measurements with sufficient accuracy, independent of the chosen data assimilation period. This demonstrates that the multi-position fatigue assessment solely through HM at one RP based on EWP concept is realized.     

Onboard monitoring of fatigue damage rates in the hull girder

Most new advanced ships have extensive data collection systems to be used for continuous monitoring of engine and hull performance, for voyage performance evaluation etc. Such systems could be expanded to include also procedures for stress monitoring and for decision support, where the most critical wave-induced ship extreme responses and fatigue damage accumulation can be estimated for hypothetical changes in ship course and speed in the automatically estimated wave environment.The aim of this paper is to outline a calculation procedure for fatigue damage rate prediction in hull girders taking into account whipping stresses. It is conceptually shown how such a method, which integrates onboard estimation of sea states, can be used to deduce decision support with respect to the accumulated fatigue damage in the hull girder.The paper firstly presents a set of measured full-scale wave-induced stress ranges in a container ship, where the associated fatigue damage rates calculated from a combination of the rain-flow counting method and the Palmgren-Miner damage rule are compared with damage predictions obtained from a computationally much faster frequency fatigue analysis using a spectral method. This analysis verifies the applied multi-modal spectral analysis procedure for fatigue estimation for cases where hull girder flexibility plays a role.To obtain an automated prediction method for the fatigue damage rates it is in the second part of the paper shown how a combination of the full-scale onboard acceleration and stress measurements can be used to calculate sea state parameters. These calculated environmental data are verified by a comparison to hindcast data.In the third part of the paper the full-scale fatigue stress ranges are compared to results from an analytical design oriented calculation procedure for flexible ship hulls in short-term estimated sea states.Altogether, it is conceptually shown that by a combination of the onboard estimated sea state parameters with the described analytical fatigue damage prediction procedure a method can be established for real-time onboard decision support which includes estimates of fatigue damage rates.     

耐压锥柱结合壳疲劳寿命有限元预测

本文首先介绍了基于有限元疲劳寿命的理论基础和分析方法,然后建立锥柱结合壳有限元分析模型,经计算,疲劳寿命结果与试验数据相符,而局部应力-应变法估算的疲劳寿命误差较大.本文最后得出用有限元方法估算疲劳寿命不但可靠度高,而且可以方便地修改计算参数,进行结构优化,提高了计算的准确性和运算效率,极大程度地降低了人工费用.     

Fatigue damage from time domain simulation of combined in-line and cross-flow vortex-induced vibrations

A semi-empirical method for time domain simulation of vortex-induced vibrations (VIV) is used to calculate the in-line and cross-flow fatigue damage of a tensioned riser in uniform and sheared flow. Simulations are run for flow velocities ranging from 0.3 m/s to 2.4 m/s, and a detailed comparison with experimental observations is performed. Results are reported in terms of dominating frequency, mode of vibration and mean of r.m.s. of displacement, as well as fatigue damage distribution along the length of the structure and maximum fatigue damage rates for each case. Fatigue damage is calculated by rainflow counting of the strain time series together with an idealized S–N curve with slope m = 3. The results show that the model reproduces the measured fatigue damage with a satisfactory level of realism, using a consistent set of parameters. This indicates that the model is usable for calculation of riser VIV fatigue damage in various current conditions, assuming the Reynolds number is in the subcritical range.     

功率谱密度法的随机疲劳试验研究

本文讨论了随机疲劳载荷谱的设计和修正,随机疲劳试验的过程,实测随机数据的采集、计数和统计分析。介绍了功率谱密度法随机疲劳试验的实施。该方法包含的载荷成分比较全面,载荷的分布规律更接近于实际,其分析结果对预估疲劳寿命有更高的精度。     

液化石油气船疲劳强度校核方法

提出了改进的ＦＡＳＳ（Ｆａｔｉｇｕｅ Ａｓｓｅｓｓｍｅｎｔ ｏｆ Ｓｈｉｐ Ｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅｓ）评估系统,使之适用于液化石油ＬＰＧ,Ｌｉｑｕｉｆｉｅｄ Ｐｅｔｒｏｌｅｕｍ Ｇａｓ）船船体结构的疲劳寿命校核。该系统从疲劳分析的基本原理出发,以疲劳累积损伤度公式为理论基础,可对船体结构进行疲劳寿命校核。通过对１６５００ｍ＾３ＬＰＧ船的验算,表明改进后的方法能有效评估ＬＰＧ船舶体结构的疲劳寿命。     

Simulation-based fatigue crack management of ship structural details applied to longitudinal and transverse connections

It is of continuing importance for ship structural design to establish a system to compute the growth behavior of fatigue cracks propagating in structural details. In the present paper, a simulation program is developed for multiple fatigue cracks propagating in a three-dimensional stiffened panel structure, where it can predict fatigue crack lives and paths by taking into account the interaction of multiple cracks, load shedding during crack propagation and welding residual stress. Various fatigue crack propagations in longitudinal stiffeners of ship structures are investigated by both the present simulation method and experiments. From these results, it is found that the crack propagation may considerably change, depending on the loading conditions, structural details and residual stress distributions. This means that one could possibly manage to avoid fatal damage of the skin-plate by properly designing the structural details. Furthermore, these results may imply a possibility to realize a rational fatigue crack management if one can estimate the fatigue crack-propagation behavior during the ship lifecycle. The present simulation program may offer a useful numerical tool for this purpose.     

A probabilistic damage tolerance concept for welded joints. Part 1: data base and stochastic modelling

The present paper presents the necessary crack growth statistics and suggests stochastic models for a reliability analysis of the fatigue fracture of welded steel plate joints. The reliability levels are derived from extensive testing with fillet-welded joints for which the entire crack growth history has been measured, not only the final fatigue life. The statistics for the time to reach given crack depths are determined. Fracture-mechanics-derived crack growth curves are fitted to the measured experimental curves and the best fit defines the growth parameters involved for each test specimen. The derived statistics and distribution function for these parameters are used as variables in a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). In addition a Markov model is developed as an alternative stochastic model. It is a Markov chain for which the discrete damage states are related to chosen crack depths in the material. This model works directly with the experimental time statistics. It is a “stochastic bulk approach” not involving any random variables or fracture mechanics modeling. Both models are fitted to the data base and scaled to in-service conditions. Both methods are compared and discussed. The aim is to provide data for the variables used in a MCS and to develop a Markov chain for fast reliability calculation, especially when predicting the most likely influence of numerous future inspections.     

An analytical SCF solution method for joint misalignments and application in fatigue test data interpretation

In this study, we first present a general analytical method for calculating stress concentration factors in a cruciform connection containing either axial or angular misalignment between two intercostal members through an application of Castigliano's second theorem. As such, various end restraint conditions of interest in practice can be considered with ease. Such a solution method provides stress concentration factors at intersection location not only with respect to intercostal members, but also with respect to continuous members. A comprehensive set of SCF solutions, confirmed by finite element solutions, are then presented in tabular forms which can be used as supplements to the existing SCF solutions such as those given in BS 7910 and DNV-RP-C203 for performing fatigue and fracture assessment of welded connections. Some of the existing solutions are shown to be valid only under a narrower set of conditions than documented and some seem to be in significant error. As a further demonstration of the validity of the analytical approach presented in this paper, the same analytical formulation is applied for examining interaction effects between misalignments and fatigue testing conditions, resulting in significantly improved correlation of fatigue test data obtained as a part of this study.