基于BP神经网络的二手船价格评估研究

二手船价格是买卖二手船决策过程中非常关键的因素。为了准确地估算二手船价格,利用BP神经网络的高度非线性运算能力以及通过学习样本数据即可对事物复杂内在规律进行精确计算的特点,将BP神经网络应用于二手船价格的估算。利用从克拉克松获取的2009年到2012年120个灵便型干散货船交易数据,建立了基于船龄、船舶载重吨(DWT)、新造船价格和一年期期租费率的BP神经网络模型,网络输出结果与二手船实际交易价格的相对误差率在10%以内。     

Market efficiency within dry bulk markets in the short run: a multi-agent system dynamics Nash equilibrium

In this paper, we assess the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in relation to dry bulk shipping in the short run. The aim is to explain why freight rates in the different ship segments are highly correlated. By building a system dynamics model, which is well-suited to modelling complex and stochastic processes with limited data availability, we attempt to track the arbitrage process in which the different ship types (Handy, Panamax and Capesize) literally seek to transport each others’ cargoes (substitution) when this is beneficial. Also, within one ship segment, we govern the arbitrage opportunities arising from regional differences in freight rates. Although the EMH is ever more contested in the maritime literature, holistic and analytical proof is provided that efficiency is maintained through the intrinsic arbitrage free and evolutionary behaviour in the system towards the Nash equilibrium.     

Supply and demand of new oil tankers

This paper examines the world-wide supply and demand for new oil tankers. A simultaneous supply and demand model is developed and estimated using two-stage least squares techniques and empirical data from 1972 to 1983. The relationships between tanker newbuilding orders and prices, and other relevant market factors are analysed. Major factors affecting the tanker new building market are identified. The results indicate that: oil price and second-hand tanker price are predominant factors influencing future newbuilding demand; a moderate decrease in laid-up tonnage would not induce a significant increase in newbuilding orders; shipbuilding capacity is a more influential factor for the short-run supply of new tankers than shipbuilding cost. Technological change has also played an important role in the market.     

Modelling and forecasting the demolition market in shipping

ABSTRACT

We model the demolition market, an integral part of the international shipping industry. It is shown through the implementation of a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model that international steel-scrap prices contribute decisively towards price discovery in the ship-demolition industry. Our finding is explained and attributed to the fact that the growth models of Southeast Asian countries, where the ship-demolition market is primarily located, rely on scrap metal imports. These are mainly obtained from the developed economies rather than the recycling of vessels. We then proceed to test the forecasting ability of our model and use it for price prediction in the ship-demolition market. We establish that it provides the decision-makers with a useful prediction tool which enables all stakeholders involved, the ship owner, the recycler and the cash buyer alike, to gain valuable insights of the underlying trend in the sector.     

2015年世界船舶市场评述与2016年展望

文章对2015年世界经济、航运、造船市场进行回顾,并对2016年市场发展予以展望。2015年,不同经济体的经济增长分化迹象日趋明显;油船：航运市场和新造船市场一枝独秀;箱船：航运市场低迷,运力过剩,然而2015年订单飚升（主要指超大型集装箱船）,但2016年难以再现;干散货船及海工：市场低迷,订单严重下滑。新船价格持续下降。预计2016年世界经济总体略优于2015年;航运市场贸易量同比将出现增长,但难以抗衡2016年运力的大幅增长,市场供求仍失衡;预测2016年新造船市场逊于2015年,散货船、集装箱船和油船存在局部性机会,海工市场维持弱势。     

Lead–lag relationship between new-building and second-hand ship prices

We examine lead–lag relationships between new-building and second-hand ship prices. Our analysis shows the existence of a one-directional lead–lag relationship between two ship prices. The direction of lead–lag relationship is not affected by the time evolution and age of second-hand ships, but is affected by the division of shipping sector. Particularly, directions of ship price movements in dry bulk and tanker shipping sectors are opposite. We argue that the opposite directional lead–lag relationships are caused by the difference in competition levels and the difference in the purposes of trading in the two shipping sectors.     

Analyzing ship investment behaviour in liner shipping

This study analyzes capacity expansion and ship choice decisions. Theoretically, we derive the probability of capacity expansion as a function of market and company attributes and characterize the impacts of these factors on expansion decisions. Empirically, we analyze ship investment and ship choice behaviour using binary choice and nested logit models based on ship investment data from major liner shipping companies over the period 1999 to 2009. Most expansion decisions are found to be market-driven, and large companies expand to maintain their market shares. In terms of ship selection, statistical results support the assumption that shipping companies decide on a new order or second-hand purchase before considering the ship size. Also, new orders are preferable to second-hand purchases. For new orders, the preference increases with ship size, and decreases with shipbuilding length and demand growth rate. For all ship types, the preference increases with a high and stable time-charter rate. For second-hand ships, handysize is the most preferable size. The substitution of new orders and second-hand purchases is possible, but not symmetrical.     

Duration analysis for recurrent ship accidents

About 63% of the world’s shipping accidents are recurrent—they occur to ships that have already experienced at least one prior accident. Therefore, reducing recurrent accidents can contribute significantly to maritime safety. We study the factors affecting both first and recurrent accidents, by focusing on the duration between two accidents. Cox proportional hazard models are applied to ship accident data from 1996 to 2015, and the results identify which ships have a high risk of recurrent accidents, based on ship attributes, ship supply and market conditions, shipbuilding country, previous accident type, and ship type. The recurrent rate is high when the ship involved in the accident is old, small, flies a flag of convenience, and has no detention record. In addition, the accident risk increases when the shipping market faces a high bunker price, overcapacity in supply, a high time charter rate, or low newbuilding price. On the other hand, ships built in China and Japan have lower recurrent accident rates than those built elsewhere, although ships built in China have earlier first accidents than do others. General cargo ships have the highest recurrent accident rate, followed by dry bulkers, container ships, and tankers, in that order.     

基于VAR模型的混合动力VLCC船舶营运数据分析

大型VLCC风帆-主机混合技术将是绿色船舶和航运时代的重大里程碑和技术创新。混合动力VLCC船型的技术经济可行性分析是开发该技术和船型工作中的一个重要环节。本文通过构建有关VLCC船舶关键营运数据的分析谱系和向量自回归模型(VAR)分析了目标混合动力船型的船价、运费、燃油价格等关键经济变量相互动态影响路径和机制。研究发现,从中、长期而言,燃油价格是影响新造船价格变化的第二大重要经济变量。这不仅反映了对于节能减排型船舶的内在市场需求,也体现了开发和推广混合动力船型的重大商业意义。     

Valuation mismatch and shipping q indicator for shipping asset management

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to develop an adaptation of the Tobin Q investment model for the shipping asset management in order to monitor valuation mismatch and bubble pricing of shipping assets. In this circumstance, the market prices of various shipping assets (e.g., Capesize or Panamax dry bulk carriers in different age profiles) are compared to the measured long-term asset value with second-hand ship prices. The mark-to-market prices of shipping assets are led by current market trends and freight rates, while the long-term asset value is estimated by using past data under certain assumptions (mean reversion, trend reversion). The discrepancy between market prices and the long-term nominal value of a shipping asset reflects any mispricing, which in turn sheds light on investment timing and market entry-exit decision.     

大型薄膜型LNG运输船结构关键区域分布与控制

以大型薄膜型LNG运输船为例,采用整船直接计算强度评估和疲劳谱分析,确定结构关键区域的分布,在新造船设计和建造阶段对高应力关键区域以及疲劳关键区域进行识别、优化和质量控制,并提出营运阶段的监控要求,以保证船体结构的安全和使用寿命。     

波罗的海干散货运价指数波动性研究

为把握国际干散货市场运价指数的波动特征,规避航运经营风险,建立基于广义的自回归条件异方差(GARCH)的运价指数波动模型.选取四种船型的波罗的海干散货运价指数BCI、BPI、BHI、BSI作为研究的样本数据.利用EVIEWS软件,通过分析样本数据的基本统计特征和ARCH效应检验等,对四种船型分别建立了GARCH(1,1)模型.实例验证表明模型能很好地反映波罗的海干散货运价指数波动的敏感性和持续性规律,从而可为航运经营提供决策支持.     

压载水管理

压载水管理是为了减少有害水生物和病原体通过压载水和沉淀物传播的可能性.作者根据规范要求,结合实船设计,就压载水管理的三种模式进行了介绍、分析、比较.     

76000t散货船实践香港公约综述

摘要：通过对2009年颁布的《香港公约》的初步解读,探讨绿色造船对国内船舶行业的重大意义。并以76000t散货轮“WOOLLOOMOOLOO”为实践对象,阐述了新造船申请GP（绿色通行证）证书的全过程,为后续船舶的申请积累经验。     

Price formation of dry bulk carriers in the Chinese shipbuilding industry

In this paper, we present, for the first time, the price formation of Chinese dry bulk carriers based on the historical shipbuilding contract prices. Price determinants include generic market factors as well as Chinese elements. Principal component regression analysis is employed as the solution for the multicollinearity problem among explanatory variables. The result indicates that the time charter rate has the most significant positive impact on shipbuilding price; increases in three other factors, namely the cost of shipbuilding, the price-cost margin and the shipbuilding capacity utilisation, have positive influences in the descending order. Unlike the traditional perception of newbuilding price that shipbuilding cost has the most significant effect, we assert that the most important role the time charter rate plays is attributed mainly to the ‘China Factor’ in the bulk carrier sector. In addition, simulations are performed to investigate what would happen to the Chinese dry bulk carrier prices under changes in the time charter rate and shipbuilding cost. The findings are useful for Chinese shipyards, shipowners and emerging shipbuilders.     

Price and volume dynamics in second-hand dry bulk and tanker shipping markets

The relationship between trading volume, prices and return volatility is thoroughly investigated in different second-hand dry bulk and tanker market segments. The objective is to gain fruitful insight on the sale and purchase market dynamics, and the sensitivity of vessel price movements following the arrival of new information signals in the shipping markets. Contemporaneous relationships are identified between returns and volume, particularly in the markets of handysize and panamax bulks as well as of handysize and aframax tankers. Price changes are found to have an impact on trading volume indicating that expectations to higher capital gains induce increases in trading activity. Volume appears to have a negative impact on the volatility of price changes mainly in the dry bulk market; this may be due to thin trading, limited transaction transparency and absence of vessel price quotes. The empirical findings can contribute to a better understanding of shipping markets' microstructure and price volatility dynamics by market participants. This, in turn, can be useful for investors who construct their portfolios of real assets with a view to attain superior capital gains, controlling for the underlying investment risk.     

浅谈高速柴油机的修理

文章针对“Good Faith”轮所使用的PAXMAN型高速柴油机的特点,在进厂修理过程中,从所购买的二手配件着手进行安装、调试,最终使问题获得圆满解决,可供修理此类机型的船舶借鉴。     

基于支持向量机的船舶操纵运动在线建模

支持向量机算法以结构风险最小化为准则,具有良好的泛化性,是一种先进的人工智能算法。文章根据最小二乘支持向量机对其增量式算法进行推导,并应用该算法对船舶操纵运动进行在线建模。通过仿真试验对粘性力和舵力水动力导数进行在线辨识,通过自航模试验对操纵性K、T指数进行在线辨识,并利用K、T指数对自航模的转首角速度进行了预报,所得结果都同试验值非常接近,证明了增量式最小二乘支持向量机应用于船舶操纵运动在线建模的有效性。     

Price and volume dynamics in second-hand dry bulk and tanker shipping markets

The relationship between trading volume, prices and return volatility is thoroughly investigated in different second-hand dry bulk and tanker market segments. The objective is to gain fruitful insight on the sale and purchase market dynamics, and the sensitivity of vessel price movements following the arrival of new information signals in the shipping markets. Contemporaneous relationships are identified between returns and volume, particularly in the markets of handysize and panamax bulks as well as of handysize and aframax tankers. Price changes are found to have an impact on trading volume indicating that expectations to higher capital gains induce increases in trading activity. Volume appears to have a negative impact on the volatility of price changes mainly in the dry bulk market; this may be due to thin trading, limited transaction transparency and absence of vessel price quotes. The empirical findings can contribute to a better understanding of shipping markets’ microstructure and price volatility dynamics by market participants. This, in turn, can be useful for investors who construct their portfolios of real assets with a view to attain superior capital gains, controlling for the underlying investment risk.     

基于支持向量回归机和粒子群算法的船舶操纵运动模型辨识

基于仿真的Z形试验数据,应用支持向量回归机对船舶操纵运动响应模型进行了机理建模,从核函数结构中得到了模型中的操纵性指数,并利用建立的响应模型进行了Z形试验的运动预报,同时引入粒子群算法对惩罚因子C值进行寻优,以减少惩罚因子C值选择的任意性对船舶操纵运动模型辨识精度产生的不利影响。通过将运动预报结果同仿真试验数据进行比较,验证了文中方法的有效性。