长大深埋隧道超前地质预报软件开发

采用人工神经网络技术、模糊-层次综合评判等非线性智能科学技术,并应用数据库技术和软件工程技术,集成开发了长大深埋隧道超前地质预报软件系统(TGP-CAS).本软件的功能包括:能够预报隧道基本地质条件;预测岩爆、大变形、塌方等施工地质灾害;查询TSP、GPR等物理超前探测成果;综合查询设计期、施工期地质信息和超前地质预报信息,并生成综合预报初步结论;结合地质信息和物理探测信息综合预测岩体破碎程度等隧道不良地质情况.     

大相岭隧道断层破碎带围岩变形的GA-BP神经网络预测技术

断层破碎带围岩变形预测一直是隧道工程信息化施工与管理争论的焦点,迄今没有科学合理的预测方法。在NATM隧道施工中,围岩变形量常作为评判隧道稳定性和支护结构经济合理性的重要指标。隧道变形量是随时间而变化的数列,可以建立实时跟踪预测模型和方法。文章针对雅西高速公路大相岭隧道施工中断层破碎带围岩变形速率大、持续时间长、变形量大等特点,基于BP人工神经网络原理,并引入了遗传算法,通过改进和提高预测精度,建立了预测断层破碎带围岩变形的GA-BP神经网络综合预测模型。经工程实践检验预测结果,具有较高的可靠性和准确性。     

围岩节理面不利组合条件下隧道塌方的模糊安全评价

节理发育是隧道塌方事故发生的主要影响因素之一,文章针对节理面不利组合发育的围岩,分析了围岩塌方的影响因素,构建了节理面不利组合下围岩塌方安全评价指标体系;引入二级模糊综合评价模型,运用乘积标度法确定塌方安全评价指标体系的权重值,采用单值隶属函数确定指标体系定性的隶属度;基于评价模型,给出了节理面不利组合下围岩的塌方安全指标体系中二级指标的定性和定量分级标准。通过对丁家湾隧道进行塌方安全评价,并对评价模型进行验证分析,其结果与实际施工中的塌方概况大体相同,验证了模型的实用性和有效性。     

一种随机数学方法预测隧道涌突水量研究

涌突水灾害是隧道工程中常见的灾害,准确预测涌水量的大小对于保证隧道施工、降低隧道施工风险具有重要意义.通过实例研究,分别利用理论计算法和层次分析一模糊综合评判方法预测隧道涌水量.与实际发生的涌水量对比,理论计算法操作简单,但预测不够准确.随机数学方法考虑影响隧道涌突水多方面因素,并用权重来控制各因素对隧道涌突水的影响程度,预测结果和实际发生的涌突水能较好地吻合.由此证明了层次分析一模糊综合评判方法的适用性.     

推覆构造区变质片岩隧道塌方、涌水特征及地质成因分析

隧道塌方、涌水往往发生在地质条件差的地段,有必要从地质角度研究该类灾害发生机制。文章以十房高速(十堰—房县)通省隧道塌方、涌水为例,分析了灾害发生过程,归纳总结了其典型的围岩大变形—塌方—涌水—突泥四阶段特征。在此基础上,结合隧道地质条件分析、隧洞内及地表地质调查、TRT探测等,从工程地质和水文地质角度探讨了隧道塌方、涌水灾害机理,认为主要有四个方面的原因:(1)隧道穿越压性断层破碎带,断层破碎带由含水破碎岩块及粘土构成,直接导致隧道开挖后塌方、涌水、突泥的发生;(2)推覆构造导致围岩呈层状-碎裂结构;(3)片岩中粘土矿物含量较高,遇水易泥化;(4)断层破碎带中含有承压地下水。最后,提出了加强超前地质预报及地质分析等风险规避建议,研究结果可为同类工程提供借鉴。     

西秦岭特长隧道穿越F6断层破碎带施工技术

西秦岭特长铁路隧道围岩地质构造复杂,断层较为发育,且处于高地应力区域,因此施工难度较大.在隧道通过断层破碎带施工过程中由于采用了超前地质预报、全程监控量测以及超前小导管预支护、帷幕注浆、三台阶爆破法等技术措施和施工工艺,取得了稳步掘进的效果,有效地防止了塌方等事故的发生,为断层破碎带施工积累了经验.     

山岭隧道洞身段震害规律与地震风险模糊综合评价分析

隧道洞身段长度因占隧道整个长度的比重较大,发生地震损坏的风险不容忽视。文章通过建立地震风险模糊综合评价模型,对山岭隧道洞身段地震风险进行了分析;收集整理了汶川地震中四川省境内59座山岭隧道震害资料,归纳出了影响隧道洞身段地震反应的10个主要因素,即埋深、施工情况、支护结构及强度、断面大小及形状、地震烈度、地震波传播方向、震中距、隧道长度、断层与软弱破碎带、围岩质量,并总结了与震害的关系;采用层次分析法计算地震风险因素的权重,选取梯形和语意隶属函数,应用模糊数学和加权平均法进行了模糊综合运算。通过将模糊综合评价模型应用于龙洞子隧道的工程实践,得出了洞身段地震风险级别为极高的结论;通过汶川地震中的实际震害也验证了该模型的正确性。     

高压富水隧道断层破碎带突涌水分析与工程对策

长大山岭隧道施工过程中不可避免地要通过断层破碎带等不良地质,在断层带地下水发育、导水性较好、补给充分的情况下,极易发生突泥涌水等地质灾害,会严重影响施工安全.文章对青云山隧道F高压富水断层破碎带突涌水的特征及原因进行了综合分析,详细论述了穿越该断层所采用的超前地质预测预报、全断面超前预注浆、超前大管棚、加强型抗水压衬砌及全包防水等综合工程措施.施工中由于采取了这些工程措施,有效地控制了隧道施工造成的地下水流失,达到了预期效果,保证了施工安全.     

隧道穿越断层破碎带施工技术研究综述

在山岭隧道修建过程中,隧道经常会穿过错综复杂的大小断层,给隧道施工增加困难,隧道如何安全、快速通过断层破碎带成为研究重点。文章对国内隧道穿越断层的支护方法以及开挖工法进行了总结,分析探讨隧道穿过破碎带时的施工技术,并提出在断层破碎带区段进行隧道掘进,应根据实际隧道地质情况合理设计超前支护,对于不同类型和大小的断层,所采用的超前支护方法不尽相同,遵循"短进尺、强支护、少扰动、快封闭、早衬砌、勤量测"的原则,施工中应尽量减少对隧洞围岩的影响,在开挖后及时支护。     

高压富水断层破碎带地层隧道事故处理

在高压富水断层破碎带地层隧道施工中,因为洞段受构造运动的影响,断层内往往出现很多严重病害,影响工程质量和进展,因此必须加强该类型隧道的施工技术,预防事故的发生。结合具体的工程实例,对高压富水断层破碎带地层隧道事故及其处理措施进行了探讨,以保证工程施工的安全和顺利进行。     

Patterns of urbanization and energy requirements: recent regulation changes and simulation studies concerning American urban areas

In recent years, the world economy has become more integrated internationally and container transportation has become increasingly more important as the proportion of all trade using containers is continuously growing. In order to adapt to the increasing containerization trend, it is essential to plan and construct adequate ports and facilities to cope with this development.

Based on the analysis of factors influencing container movements, this paper illustrates the logical relationships for a distribution model, which has been used to predict the distribution of containers among the three main Seaports near Shenzhen and Hong Kong. A fuzzy number‐based distribution model is outlined in the paper. The paper illustrates the main influencing factors and their logical relationships and proposes a primary distribution model where the attractiveness of each port has been calibrated. The results show that the Port of Hong Kong is significantly more attractive than the other two ports modelled and is likely to continue to be so in the future.     

埋地钢质管道腐蚀防护系统综合评价技术

在详细分析影响埋地钢质管道腐蚀影响因素的基础上,建立了基于模糊评判理论的埋地钢质管道腐蚀防护状况综合评价模型。通过合理选取影响管道腐蚀的典型因素,依据一定的分级评价标准,建立评价集。利用层次分析法和灰色关联分析理论确定影响因素的权重大小,通过隶属函数法建立单因素评价矩阵,实现对各影响因素的模糊化处理。在综合考虑各影响因素权重的基础上,选取适当的模糊算子,通过定量分析的方法对管道的腐蚀防护状况进行评价。实践表明：评判结果与直接开挖检测结果一致,建立的模糊综合评价系统具有一定的工程应用价值和可靠性。     

An investigation of incident frequency,duration and lanes blockage for determining traffic delay

Traffic delay caused by incidents is closely related to three variables: incident frequency, incident duration, and the number of lanes blocked by an incident that is directly related to the bottleneck capacity. Relatively, incident duration has been more extensively studied than incident frequency and the number of lanes blocked in an incident. In this study, we provide an investigation of the influencing factors for all of these three variables based on an incident data set that was collected in New York City (NYC). The information about the incidents derived from the identification can be used by incident management agencies in NYC for strategic policy decision making and daily incident management and traffic operation. In identifying the influencing factors for incident frequency, a set of models, including Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models and their zero‐inflated models, were considered. An appropriate model was determined based on a model decision‐making tree. The influencing factors for incident duration were identified based on hazard‐based models where Exponential, Weibull, Log‐logistic, and Log‐normal distributions were considered for incident duration. For the number of lanes blocked in an incident, the identification of the influencing factors was based on an Ordered Probit model which can better capture the order inherent in the number of lanes blocked in an incident. As identified in this study, rain is the only factor that significantly influenced incident frequency. For incident duration and the number of lanes blocked in an incident, various factors had significant impact. As concluded in this study, there is a strong need to identify the influencing factors in terms of different types of incidents and the roadways where the incidents occured.     

城市燃气管道第三方损坏的评价方法

第三方损坏评价是指对由于各种外力作用而使管道受损的可能性进行分级.根据影响第三方损坏因素的情况,采用故障树分析法和模糊综合评判法相结合的数学模型进行评价.通过故障树分析,得到引起第三方损坏的各种因素的重要度.再将之作为模糊综合评判法的权重向量,求得第三方损坏的综合评判向量,最后按照最大隶属度原则确定各管段第三方损坏可能性的等级.     

The interaction between road traffic safety and the condition of sewers laid under roads

The main objective of this paper is to show how the service condition of the underground pipeline infrastructure, especially sewage systems, may contribute to road surface failures such as subsidence, bulging and particularly collapse. The analysis was based on CCTV surveys conducted in Poland to investigate the causes of more than a hundred road surface collapse incidents.The method proposed in this paper enables us to determine the risk of road surface collapse as the product of the category of probability of road collapse caused by damaged sewer pipelines and the weighted arithmetic mean category of their consequences.The key conclusions highlight the causes of road collapse incidents, the scale of the hazards, and the benefits resulting from the application of the proposed method to prioritize roads according to the road collapse risk.     

Analysis of factors that influence the sensor location problem for freeway corridors

The use of traffic sensors to acquire real‐time traffic information for intelligent transportation systems is becoming increasingly common. It is a challenge to determine where these sensors should be located to maximize the benefit of their use. This paper aims to illuminate the interaction of the sensor location problem (SLP) and its influencing factors, and to reveal the influencing mechanisms between those factors and the optimal sensor numbers. Firstly, we sum up the factors that influence the SLP for freeway corridors in detail and present the mathematical formulation of each factor. Then, given the parameters, which are derived from those influencing factors, the maximum integration value model (MIVM) and simplified MIVM are proposed for addressing the SLP. Finally, a real world case study, in which the simplified MIVM is used, is presented to illustrate how these factors influence the optimal sensor numbers and the maximum integration value, and also leads to the typical influencing patterns of those factors for freeway corridors. The results of the case study also demonstrate the effectiveness of the model and problem solving scheme. What is more, the suggestions for using the findings hereof in practical applications are put forward. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄土地区地铁隧道不同湿陷变形方式模型试验系统的研制及应用研究

为研究不同湿陷变形方式下黄土地区地铁隧道周围土体的沉降量变化规律,研制出一种测量黄土在均匀湿陷、不均匀湿陷时沉降量的模型试验装置。该装置由模型箱、流速控制系统和沉降量测量系统组成。通过室内模型试验对黄土在遇水后的湿陷变形规律进行总结,并对黄土地层在两种不同浸水方式下隧道围岩土体的变形规律进行分析。试验结果表明:不均匀湿陷最终累计沉降量大于均匀湿陷最终累计沉降量,说明不均匀湿陷对地铁结构物的危害更大;两种湿陷变形方式均为隧道中线附近沉降最大,因此,施工时应该重点加强隧道中线的位移监测。通过室内模型试验,分析了均匀与不均匀湿陷对黄土地铁隧道变形影响,研究结果对湿陷性黄土地区地铁隧道建设中施工把控及灾害规避具有重要意义。     

A fuzzy measure based solution approach to a multimodal analysis problem

This paper discusses the factors that determine the utility of a mode and attempts to suggest and investigate a novel fuzzy measure based solution approach to the problem of multimodal analysis in a multicriteria context. The paper expands on the notions of fuzzy logic and in particular, fuzzy measures. The approach attempts to estimate the probabilities of the “overall system” from a group of eight experts who are experienced in transport planning. The data is used to ascertain the relative utility of various modes in a competitive environment. It explains the application of fuzzy measures to provide guidance information for a transport planning agency.     

深基坑支撑体系参数优化分析

文章在总结已有研究成果的基础上,分析影响深基坑的支撑体系参数,并根据优化分析的原则,提出模糊神经网络的优化分析方法,确定了深基坑支撑体系优化分析步骤。     

基于关联规则的重大道路交通事故影响因素分析

相比于一般交通事故,重大道路交通事故的特征及其影响机理会有所差异,本文旨在研究重大道路交通事故的分布特征及其主要影响因素。收集2014至2018年的重大道路交通事故数据,从驾驶员行为、车辆状况、道路线形和时空分布方面对重大道路交通事故的基本特征进行分析,采用关联规则技术深入挖掘重大道路交通事故多因素的影响机理。从人、车、道路和环境四个方面,重点讨论了重大道路交通事故中的两因素和三因素交互作用的影响机理,并据此提出了针对性的事故预防措施。