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1.
《运输规划与技术》2013,36(2):171-193

The impacts of telecommuting and intelligent transportation systems (ITS) on urban development patterns were investigated in terms of households' residential location choice decisions. A discrete choice modelling approach framework was used. A stated preference (SP) logit analysis was carried out to estimate the parameters of the utility function. An attitude survey of employees of selected public and private sector organizations in the Ottawa-Carleton Region (Canada) yielded the required data for model estimation. In addition to obtaining background information, the survey elicited SP responses by presenting a number of hypothetical residential choice scenarios defined according to the principles of SP experimental design. Results show that telecommuting and ITS measures are highly significant factors in the residential choice model. This leads to the conclusion that these reinforce dispersed residential patterns and encourage moves towards outlying sites. Implications of this conclusion for urban land development planning are noted.  相似文献   

2.
This work builds upon the thought that individuals allocate higher levels of importance to some particular features of the route, so called anchor points. Previous route choice models have either ignored the effects of anchor points (route-based models), or have given an exclusive attention to their effects and ignored the behavioral accuracy and practicality of these models (anchor-based models). In this work we argue that the consideration of both route-level attributes and anchor points would enhance the behavioral aspect of route choice models as well as their estimation and prediction abilities. Global Positioning System traces have been used to investigate the effect of bridges as anchor points for trips between Montreal and its Northern suburb, Laval. A classic Nested Logit and a nested Logit Kernel model have been estimated, in which interdependencies among routes crossing the same bridge are captured through the nested structure and the adopted factor analytic approach, respectively. A Metropolis–Hastings path-sampling algorithm is applied, for the first time, on a large road network with more than 40,000 nodes and 19,000 links to provide the consideration choice set. Estimates are then compared to three alternate models, representing route-based and anchor-based formulations; namely Path-Size Logit, Extended Path-Size Logit, and Independent Availability Logit models. Empirical results showed that the proposed nested structures with MH sampling provide better estimates and also perform better in the validation step with respect to comparative models. Findings underscore the importance of considering anchor points in conjunction with route level attributes in route choice decisions.  相似文献   

3.
In the last decade, a broad array of disciplines has shown a general interest in enhancing discrete choice models by considering the incorporation of psychological factors affecting decision making. This paper provides insight into the comprehension of the determinants of route choice behavior by proposing and estimating a hybrid model that integrates latent variable and route choice models. Data contain information about latent variable indicators and chosen routes of travelers driving regularly from home to work in an urban network. Choice sets include alternative routes generated with a branch and bound algorithm. A hybrid model consists of measurement equations, which relate latent variables to measurement indicators and utilities to choice indicators, and structural equations, which link travelers’ observable characteristics to latent variables and explanatory variables to utilities. Estimation results illustrate that considering latent variables (i.e., memory, habit, familiarity, spatial ability, time saving skills) alongside traditional variables (e.g., travel time, distance, congestion level) enriches the comprehension of route choice behavior.  相似文献   

4.
This study examines three models of the individual's preference for home- and center-based telecommuting. Issues concerning the estimation of discrete models when the alternatives are non-exclusive are discussed. Two binary logit models are presented, one on the preference to telecommute from a center versus not telecommuting from a center (adjusted 2 = 0.24), and the other on the preference to telecommute from a center over telecommuting from home (adjusted 2 = 0.64). A nested logit model is also estimated on the following four alternatives: preferring not to telecommute, preferring either form of telecommuting, preferring to telecommute from home, and preferring to telecommute from a center (adjusted 2 = 0.35).The results of the models illustrated the importance of attitudinal measures in measuring an individual's preference to telecommute. Oblique factor scores representing workplace interaction, stress, workaholism, internal control, and commute stress were statistically significant in some or all of the models. Other explanatory variables which were found to be consistently significant were education, job suitability, and age. Most respondents preferred either to telecommute from home or were indifferent between either form of telecommuting, which raises the question as to whether there really is a sizeable market niche to be filled by telecommuting centers, and hence whether they may make a significant contribution to transportation demand reduction.  相似文献   

5.
This paper investigates the choice of fare and service frequency by urban mass transit agencies. A more frequent service is costly to provide but is valued by riders due to shorter waiting times at stops, and faster operating speeds on less crowding vehicles. Empirical analyses in the 1980s found that service frequencies were too high in most of the cities studied. For a given budget constraint, social welfare could be improved by reducing service frequencies and using the money saved to lower fares. The cross-sectional nature of these analyses meant that researchers were unable to address the question of when the oversupply occurred. This paper seeks to answer that question by conducting a time-series analysis of the bus operations of the Chicago Transit Authority from 1953 to 2005. The paper finds that it has always been the case that too much service frequency was provided at too high a fare. The imbalance between fares and service frequency became larger in the 1970s when the introduction of operating subsidies coincided with an increase in the unit cost of service provision.  相似文献   

6.
Transportation - Developing economies are still in the stage of e-commerce deployment, unlike in developed countries, where online shopping is already a common purchase channel. This research aims...  相似文献   

7.
The total economic value for a transportation service consists of use, option, and non-use value. The use benefit is based on a traveler’s willingness to pay for usual consumption of the service. The optional value, on the other hand, is related to the possible use of the service for trips not yet anticipated or currently accommodated by other travel modes. The non-use value, however, is derived from the intrinsic merit of the service, even though a trip-maker never actually or potentially depends on the mode. A closed-ended contingent valuation method is considered for the quantification of the option and non-use values. A survey of single- and double-bounded dichotomous choices is conducted with a case study of South Korean bus operations. A logistic regression model and a survival analysis for the single- and double-bounded approaches, respectively, are applied. The estimation result is examined according to the statistical property required and the behavioral validity expected. In particular, three issues from the output are discussed. First, the results help to show the preferable framework between single- and double-bounded surveys for addressing an individual’s option and non-use values. Second, the differences in the absolute values of option and non-use values are compared. Thirdly, the relationship between trip-makers’ willingness to pay and the level of service of their primary travel modes are investigated. In conclusion, the summary of research and the possibilities for future studies are given.  相似文献   

8.
Values lie at the heart of an individual’s belief system, serving as prototypes from which attitudes and behaviors are subsequently manufactured. Attitudes and behaviors may evolve over time, but values represent a set of more enduring beliefs. This study examines the influence of values on travel mode choice behavior. It is argued that personal values influence individual attitudes towards different alternative attributes, which in turn impact modal choices. Using data from a sample of 519 German commuters drawn from a consumer panel, the study estimates an integrated choice and latent variable model of travel mode choice that allows for hierarchical relationships between the latent variables and flexible substitution patterns across the modal alternatives. Results from the empirical application support the value-attitude-behavior hierarchical model of cognition, and provide insights to planners and policy-makers on how better to sell public transit as a means of travel.  相似文献   

9.
Paleti  Rajesh  Balan  Lacramioara 《Transportation》2019,46(4):1467-1485

Travel surveys that elicit responses to questions regarding daily activity and travel choices form the basis for most of the transportation planning and policy analysis. The response variables collected in these surveys are prone to errors leading to mismeasurement or misclassification. Standard modeling methods that ignore these errors while modeling travel choices can lead to biased parameter estimates. In this study, methods available in the econometrics literature were used to quantify and assess the impact of misclassification errors in auto ownership choice data. The results uncovered significant misclassification rates ranging from 1 to 40% for different auto ownership alternatives. Also, the results from latent class models provide evidence for variation in misclassification probabilities across different population segments. Models that ignore misclassification were not only found to have lower statistical fit but also significantly different elasticity effects for choice alternatives with high misclassification probabilities. The methods developed in this study can be extended to analyze misclassification in several response variables (e.g., mode choice, activity purpose, trip/tour frequency, and mileage) that constitute the core of advanced travel demand models including tour and activity-based models.

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10.
In this paper, we report the results of a stated choice experiment, which was conducted to examine truck drivers?? route choice behavior. Of particular interest are the questions (i) what is the relative importance of road accessibility considerations via-a-vis traditional factors influencing route choice behavior, (ii) what are the influences of particular personal and situational variables on the evaluation of route attributes, (iii) how sensitive are truck drivers for possible pricing policies, and (iv) is there a difference in impact if environmental concerns are framed as a bonus or as a pricing instrument. The main findings indicate that road accessibility characteristics have a substantial impact on route preferences which is of the same order of magnitude as variation in travel times. This suggests that provision of adequate travel information in itself can be an effective instrument to prevent negative externalities of good transport associated with shortest routes. Furthermore, the results indicate that truck drivers/route planners when choosing a route are relatively sensitive to road pricing schemes and rather insensitive to environmental bonuses.  相似文献   

11.
The purpose of the current research effort is to develop a framework for a better understanding of commuter train users’ access mode and station choice behavior. Typically, access mode and station choice for commuter train users is modeled as a hierarchical choice with access mode being considered as the first choice in the sequence. The current study proposes a latent segmentation based approach to relax the hierarchy. In particular, this innovative approach simultaneously considers two segments of station and access mode choice behavior: Segment 1—station first and access mode second and Segment 2—access mode first and station second. The allocation to the two segments is achieved through a latent segmentation approach that determines the probability of assigning the individual to either of these segments as a function of socio-demographic variables, level of service (LOS) parameters, trip characteristics, land-use and built environment factors, and station characteristics. The proposed latent segment model is estimated using data from an on-board survey conducted by the Agence Métropolitaine de Transport for commuter train users in Montreal region. The model is employed to investigate the role of socio-demographic variables, LOS parameters, trip characteristics, land-use and built environment factors, and station characteristics on commuter train user behavior. The results indicate that as the distance from the station by active forms of transportation increases, individuals are more likely to select a station first. Young persons, females, car owners, and individuals leaving before 7:30 a.m. have an increased propensity to drive to the commuter train station. The station model indicates that travel time has a significant negative impact on station choice, whereas, presence of parking and increased train frequency encourages use of the stations.  相似文献   

12.
Three problems of great importance to urban travel demand modeling using multinominal logit models are examined in this paper. They are (1) the effect of data outliers on model coefficients; (2) the effect of model specification on coefficients and model explanatory power; and (3) the transferability of model coefficients within the region, between regions, and in time.Four data sets are used in the study. They are: Washington, D.C., Minneapolis-St. Paul, and two data sets from the San Francisco Bay Area, Pre-BART and Post-BART. The data are standard home-interview survey data appended with network supplied modal travel cost and time information.The findings of the research are occasionally contradictory; the majority of the evidence supports the following conclusions. The outliers do not have a statistically significant effect (at 0.05 level) on the coefficients; however, the outliers can have a substantial effect on the point estimates of some of the coefficients. Model specification has an impact on model coefficients and model explanatory power. In particular, the definition of out-of-vehicle travel time appears to be important and, if available, the use of separate walk and wait times is preferred over their sum, the out-of-vehicle time. Finally, the model coefficients do not appear transferable within region, between regions, or in time.Research was supported in part by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, through grant 74-12-8 to the Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley and by the National Science Foundation, through grant APR 74-20392, Research Applied to National Needs Program, to the University of California, Berkeley.  相似文献   

13.
Many types of travel behavior involve positive social interaction (conformity effect) and it sometimes induces undesirable results, such as chronic illegal bicycle parking and illegal car parking. In this study, the conformity effects among bicycle users in the choice problem of bicycle parking locations were modeled and estimated within a discrete choice framework. The proposed model combines discrete choice behavior of bicycle parking locations at an individual level (micro-level) with an average choice at an aggregate level (macro-level). The social equilibrium equation, which is derived from the individual-level choice model, entails multiple equilibria with regard to the choice proportion for each reference group of individuals. The model was econometrically identified by using the data collected in a survey conducted in Tokyo in 2001. The empirical results indicated that large variations in collective behavior occur across subgroups, which were defined by the stations the respondents visit often, since there was an intensive positive social interaction. Finally, the marginal frequency of police patrols required to drastically reduce the level of illegal bicycle parking was also calculated using the identified model.  相似文献   

14.
Dynamic traffic assignment models have been attracting increasing attention with the progress of traffic management policies based on information technology. These dynamic estimation tools, however, just apply static route choice models either at only origin node or at every arrival node. This paper aims at providing some knowledge on drivers' dynamic route choice behavior using probe‐vehicle data. The results of analyses show that route choice behavior relates to the distance from driver's position to the destination and that dynamic route choice behavior is modeled better by considering decision process during the trip.  相似文献   

15.
The modeling of travel decision making has been a popular topic in transportation planning. Previous studies focused on random-utility discrete choice models and machine learning methods. This paper proposes a new modeling approach that utilizes a mixed Bayesian network (BN) for travel decision inference. The authors use a predetermined BN structure and calculate priori and posterior probability distributions of the decision alternatives based on the observed explanatory variables. As a “utility-free” decision inference method, the BN model releases the linear structure in the utility function but assumes the traffic level of service variables follow multivariate Gaussian distribution conditional on the choice variable. A real-world case study is conducted by using the regional travel survey data for a two-dimensional decision modeling of both departure time choice and travel mode choice. The results indicate that a two-dimensional mixed BN provides better accuracy than decision tree models and nested logit models. In addition, one can derive continuous elasticity with respect to each continuous explanatory variable for sensitivity analysis. This new approach addresses a research gap in probabilistic travel decision making modeling as well as two-dimensional travel decision modeling.  相似文献   

16.
Bursa  Bartosz  Mailer  Markus  Axhausen  Kay W. 《Transportation》2022,49(5):1465-1516
Transportation - In the face of a continuous increase in the number of tourists in the Alps, the associated traffic volumes, and the resulting negative externalities, there is an urgent need to...  相似文献   

17.
Green  Lisa L.  Burris  Mark W.  Florence  David  Arthur  Winfred 《Transportation》2021,48(1):215-237
Transportation - Managed lanes (MLs) are a tool to more efficiently operate segments of a freeway. As ML prevalence increases in the United States of America, it is important to understand travel...  相似文献   

18.
This paper explores cyclists’ experiences of non-injury incidents, arguing that these are important for cycling experience and uptake as well as for injury prevention. It discusses different types of non-injury incident collected in a recent survey of UK cyclists. These are everyday occurrences that in some cases have a substantially negative impact on cycling experiences. This article explores the impact of different incident types on people cycling both immediately and in the future. It analyses what near misses tell us about cyclists’ experience of problems related to road user behaviour and culture, and infrastructural conditions for cycling. The paper explores what cyclists experiencing near misses think might have prevented them. Based on this and on a comparison with common types of injury incidents, summary recommendations are made for policy and future research.  相似文献   

19.
Cities around the world are trying out a multitude of transportation policy and investment alternatives with the aim of reducing car-induced externalities. However, without a solid understanding of how people make their transportation and residential location choices, it is hard to tell which of these policies and investments are really doing the job and which are wasting precious city resources. The focus of this paper is the determinants of car ownership and car use for commuting. Using survey data from 1997 to 1998 collected in New York City, this paper uses discrete choice econometrics to estimate a model of the choices of car ownership and commute mode while also modeling the related choice of residential location.The main story told by this analysis is that New Yorkers are more sensitive to changes in travel time than they are to changes in travel cost. The model predicts that the most effective ways to reduce both auto ownership and car commuting involve changing the relative travel times for cars and transit, making transit trips faster by increasing both the frequency and the speed of service and making auto trips slower – perhaps simply by allowing traffic congestion. Population density also appears to have a substantial effect on car ownership in New York.  相似文献   

20.
Fu  Xuemei 《Transportation》2021,48(5):2681-2707
Transportation - This study attempts to develop a comprehensive framework by integrating the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and latent class choice model, with aim to understanding how mode-use...  相似文献   

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