从休闲产业说到游艺机

近年来,随着人民生活水平的提高,旅游和休闲娱乐开始提到议事日程上来.休闲亦称余暇,英文称Leisure,休闲产业是一项新兴产业,它是社会经济和人民生活水平不断发展和提高的必然结果.它是为了满足人们除工作、学习之外,调节人们的生活和心理状态的消费,它是集文化娱乐、康体健身、艺术博览、动植物观赏、饮食文化、休闲度假、旅游观光等于一体的产业.     

供需匹配视角下北京综合交通供给侧改革研究

本文提出广义完整运输产品的概念并将综合交通运输体系划分为主体层、客体层、载体层、组织层与制度层。在此基础上提出综合交通体系供给改革的核心目标是通过优化供给产品结构,创新要素供给环境,完善供给制度,满足广义完整运输产品的要求,实现有效供给与现有需求和潜在需求之间的时空匹配。同时,在北京交通供给侧问题基础上,提出优化北京综合运输体系的措施。     

北京奥运会交通运行组织与管理的经验分析

北京奥运会是一次非常成功的大型国际赛事,其交通组织管理经验对国际大型体育比赛项目的交通组织与管理具有重要参考价值。本文分析总结了北京奥运会交通组织规划及交通组织运行经验启示。     

From Bricks to Clicks: The Impact of Online Retailing on Transport and the Environment

Abstract

Online retailing is growing fast and claims are being made about its positive environmental impact relative to traditional shopping, particularly by the retailers themselves. There is, however, little concrete evidence to support the claims. Whilst there exists some research into the passenger travel implications of e‐shopping, this paper seeks to analyse the issues involved in online shopping from both a passenger and freight transport perspective. The objectives of the paper are first, to set out the complex transport relationships involved in online shopping and in particular the interaction between the passenger and freight aspects and second, to shed some light on the environmental impact of online shopping. It concludes that as things currently stand, it cannot be stated with any degree of certainty that clicks are any more environmentally responsible than bricks. The paper is conceptual in nature and is the pre‐cursor to an empirical study of the issue.     

从实体店到线上线下融合——沃尔玛的电商物流

美国沃尔玛是传统的零售巨头,目前其地位正在受到以亚马逊为代表的网络零售商的挑战。消费者需求的变化是根本的诱因,沃尔玛必须调整其未来的发展思路,满足消费者的偏好,才不至被越拉越远。文章从信息技术和实体物流及基础设施等方面,重新审视了沃尔玛的传统优势,总结了其规模扩张、信息化支持、供应链管理、物流配送等方面的优秀经验,以及面对电商挑战所做出的努力。主张将其传统优势转化到未来,往线上线下融合的全渠道方向发展。     

The effect of the price of gasoline on the urban economy: From route choice to general equilibrium

RELU-TRAN2, a spatial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chicago MSA is used to understand how gasoline use, car-VMT, on-the-road fuel intensity, trips and location patterns, housing, labor and product markets respond to a gas price increase. We find a long-run elasticity of gasoline demand (with congestion endogenous) of ?0.081, keeping constant car prices and the TFI (technological fuel intensity) of car types but allowing consumers to choose from car types. 43% of this long run elasticity is from switching to transit; 15% from trip, car-type and location choice; 38% from price, wage and rent equilibration, and 4% from building stock changes. 79% of the long run elasticity is from changes in car-VMT (the extensive margin) and 21% from savings in gasoline per mile (the intensive margin); with 83% of this intensive margin from changes in congestion and 17% from the substitution in favor of lower TFI. An exogenous trend-line improvement of the TFI of the car-types available for choice raises the long-run response to a percent increase in the gas price from ?0.081 to ?0.251. Thus, only 1/3 of the long-run response to the gas price stems from consumer choices and 2/3 from progress in fuel intensity. From 2000 to 2007, real gas prices rose 53.7%, the average car fuel intensity improved 2.7% and car prices fell 20%. The model predicts that from these changes alone, keeping constant population, income, etc. aggregate gasoline use in this period would have fallen by 5.2%.     

集聚经济视角下轨道交通投资对城市系统均衡的影响

随着城镇化进程加快,城市规模增加所带来的集聚效应和交通拥堵等负外部性之间的矛盾越来越突出,优化城市交通基础设施建设是缓解该矛盾的重要举措。本文同时考虑了集聚经济和交通拥挤两种外部性,构建并求解了一个两区域城市空间结构模型,分三种情况探究了轨道交通的投资引入和道路容量的优化对城市规模和城市空间结构均衡的影响。结果表明,轨道交通的投资引入能够增加城市人口规模和社会福利,使城市结构更加紧凑。但是,随着集聚经济水平的提高,城市规划者应逐步完善公交配套设施,以降低公交拥挤成本,提高公交出行分担率;还应制定相应的福利政策,避免由于个体效用下降而导致人口流出。     

从"神经末梢"到"国际枢纽"——十六大以来广西交通发展综述

文章总结了党的十六大以来广西交通发展取得的成绩,指出广西交通正在从"神经末梢"发展为"国际枢纽",为广西经济社会发展提供了重要支撑。     

Online Prediction of Travel Time: Experience From a Pilot Trial

Abstract

This study was designed to present an online model which predicted travel times on an interurban two-lane two-way highway section on the basis of field measurements. The study included two parts: an evaluation of the performance of the model, and an examination of the possibility to improve the model in case of unsatisfactory performance. The model was based on MLP neural networks. The main results of the evaluation showed that the prediction model outperformed a non-predictive system. However, the model for one section had not performed as well during the trial period as was expected. This might be due to a slight change in the congestion phenomenon. After further development, the findings showed that the model could be improved considerably with new data. The main implication was that even a simple prediction model improves the quality of travel time information substantially, compared to estimates based directly on the latest measurements.     

从英国铁路发展看交通强国建设

党的十九大提出建设交通强国。以英国铁路发展为例,在对其进行实地考察的基础上,总结值得我国学习借鉴的发展经验,主要包括铁路站场高密度布局,并深入城市中心城区;综合开发,站城一体;人本尺度设计,多方式无缝衔接;信息开放共享基础扎实等。在此基础上进一步提出了对我国建设交通强国的启示,包括应当正确处理政府与市场的关系、将市域(郊)铁路作为建设投资的重点方向、高度重视跨行政区域发展的组织协调等。     

Restructuring the Lebanese Railway and Public Transport Authority (RPTA): From losing operator to effective regulator

The Lebanese Council of Ministers has recently endorsed a plan for the reform and organization of the Land Public Transport Sector (LPTS). The plan implies a new role for the government: it would cease being just a loss-making service provider and become the planner and regulator of the sector under a new strategy. The strategy would aim at creating the enabling environment and conditions that allow and ensure the existence of sufficient, affordable and efficient transport services provided by several private-sector operators functioning under competitive conditions. Thus, the existing autonomous Railway and Public Transport Authority (RPTA) will be restructured to serve as the effective regulator, its bus operations will be corporatized (for possible eventual privatization), and all existing private sector service providers will be regulated. Following a brief overview of the problems of the sector and the components of the reform and organization plan, this paper focuses on developing options for the restructuring of the RPTA to carry out its new role.     

From broken windows to a renovated research agenda: A review of the literature on vandalism and graffiti in the rail industry

The execution of vandalism and graffiti on rail property has a significant impact on rail authorities, the patronisation of rail services, expenditure, and the timely operation of services. There are also important social costs which stem from passengers feeling unsafe, not to mention the environmental costs of removing graffiti and repairing vandalism. In this review paper, we focus on the social, non-technical determinants of and deterrents to vandalism and graffiti in the rail industry. First, we consider the definitions of graffiti and vandalism that are often conflated. After providing some clarification on terminology, and proposing a media-centred approach to vandalism and graffiti, we consider various theorisations of the psychosocial determinants of vandalism and graffiti behaviour. We then turn to an empirical discussion of different technical and social, non-technical prevention programmes that have been trialled. With a focus on identifying what works and under what circumstances, we refer to international case studies of successful vandalism reduction initiatives from Europe, the United Kingdom, the United States of America and Australia. Based on a review of literature and practice, we outline a future research agenda to address vandalism and graffiti. We recommend lines of further research covering: theory, empirical data collection and practical initiatives. Specifically, we note the need for a trans-theoretical model of vandalism and graffiti, further ethnographic research and improved evaluation and benchmarking strategies. This is the first review dedicated to the topic of vandalism and graffiti in the rail industry and the first review of non-technical, social deterrents to vandalism and graffiti broadly.     

A review of EVs charging: From the perspective of energy optimization,optimization approaches,and charging techniques

Introduction of electric vehicles (EVs) or plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in the road transportation can significantly reduce the carbon emission. Hence, the demand of EVs is likely to increase in the near future. Large penetration of EVs will also ultimately result into high loads on the existing power grids. The controlled charging of EVs can have a significant impact on the power grid load, voltage, frequency, and power losses. In this paper, we have provided a comprehensive review of various energy optimization approaches used for EVs charging. Energy optimization approaches used for EVs not only enhance the battery life but also contribute in regulating the voltage and frequency. During EVs charging, various objective functions such as supporting the renewable energy sources, minimization of the peak load, energy cost, and maximization of the aggregator profit have also been studied from optimization perspectives. The controlled and an optimized EVs charging enhances the performance of EVs batteries and conserves the energy in the system by minimizing the load and power losses. The different EVs charging approaches such as centralized and distributed suited for different objective functions have also been studied and compared with respect to various optimization approaches.     

From Twitter to detector: Real-time traffic incident detection using social media data

The effectiveness of traditional incident detection is often limited by sparse sensor coverage, and reporting incidents to emergency response systems is labor-intensive. We propose to mine tweet texts to extract incident information on both highways and arterials as an efficient and cost-effective alternative to existing data sources. This paper presents a methodology to crawl, process and filter tweets that are accessible by the public for free. Tweets are acquired from Twitter using the REST API in real time. The process of adaptive data acquisition establishes a dictionary of important keywords and their combinations that can imply traffic incidents (TI). A tweet is then mapped into a high dimensional binary vector in a feature space formed by the dictionary, and classified into either TI related or not. All the TI tweets are then geocoded to determine their locations, and further classified into one of the five incident categories.We apply the methodology in two regions, the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia Metropolitan Areas. Overall, mining tweets holds great potentials to complement existing traffic incident data in a very cheap way. A small sample of tweets acquired from the Twitter API cover most of the incidents reported in the existing data set, and additional incidents can be identified through analyzing tweets text. Twitter also provides ample additional information with a reasonable coverage on arterials. A tweet that is related to TI and geocodable accounts for approximately 5% of all the acquired tweets. Of those geocodable TI tweets, 60–70% are posted by influential users (IU), namely public Twitter accounts mostly owned by public agencies and media, while the rest is contributed by individual users. There is more incident information provided by Twitter on weekends than on weekdays. Within the same day, both individuals and IUs tend to report incidents more frequently during the day time than at night, especially during traffic peak hours. Individual tweets are more likely to report incidents near the center of a city, and the volume of information significantly decays outwards from the center.     

Computational Bayesian Statistics in Transportation Modeling: From Road Safety Analysis to Discrete Choice

In this paper, we review both the fundamentals and the expansion of computational Bayesian econometrics and statistics applied to transportation modeling problems in road safety analysis and travel behavior. Whereas for analyzing accident risk in transportation networks there has been a significant increase in the application of hierarchical Bayes methods, in transportation choice modeling, the use of Bayes estimators is rather scarce. We thus provide a general discussion of the benefits of using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to simulate answers to the problems of point and interval estimation and forecasting, including the use of the simulated posterior for building predictive distributions and constructing credible intervals for measures such as the value of time. Although there is the general idea that going Bayesian is just another way of finding an equivalent to frequentist results, in practice Bayes estimators have the potential of outperforming frequentist estimators and, at the same time, may offer more information. Additionally, Bayesian inference is particularly interesting for small samples and weakly identified models.     

Impacts of fuel quality on indoor environment onboard a ship: From policy to practice

Environmental considerations, concerning the negative impacts of ship exhaust gases and particles on ambient air quality, are behind the requirements of cleaner marine fuels currently applied in designated emission control areas (ECAs). We investigated the impact of a ship operating on two types of fuel on the indoor air quality onboard. Gaseous and particulate air pollutants were measured in the engine room and the accommodation sections on-board an icebreaker operating first on Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO, 1%-S), and later Marine Diesel Oil (MDO, 0.1%-S). Statistically significant decrease of SO₂, NOx, PM_2.5 and particle number concentration were observed when the ship was operating on MDO. Due to the higher content of alkylated PAHs in MDO compared to HFO, the concentration of PAHs increased during operation on MDO. The particulate PAHs classified as carcinogens, were similar to or lower in the MDO campaign. Chemical analysis of PM_2.5 revealed that the particles consisted mainly of organic carbon and sulfate, although the fraction of metals was quite large in particles from the engine room. Principal Component Analysis of all measured parameters showed a clear difference between HFO and MDO fuel on the indoor environmental quality on-board the ship. This empirical study poses a first example on how environmental policy-making impacts not only the primary target at a global level, but also brings unexpected localized benefits at workplace level. The study emphasizes the need of further investigations on the impact of new marine fuels and technologies on the indoor air environments on board.     

From e-bike to car: A study on factors influencing motorization of e-bike users across China

Household car ownership has risen dramatically in China over the past decade. At the same time a disruptive transportation technology emerged, the electric bike (e-bike). Most studies investigating motorization in China focus on macro-level economic indicators like GDP, with few focusing on household, city-level, environmental, or geographic indicators, and none in the context of high e-bike ownership. This study examines household vehicle purchase decisions across 59 cities in China with broad geographic, environmental, and socio-economic characteristics. We focus on a subset of households who own e-bikes and rely on a telephone survey from an industry customer database. From these responses, we estimate two three-level hierarchical choice models to assess attributes that contribute to (1) recent car purchases and (2) the intention to buy a car in the near future. The results show that the models are dominated by household characteristics including household income, household size, household vehicle ownership, number of licensed drivers and duration of car ownership. Some geographic, environmental and socio-economic factors have significant influences on car purchase decisions. Only two city-level transportation variable have an effect – higher taxi density and higher bus density reducing car purchase. Cold weather, population density gross domestic product per capita positively influence car purchase, while urbanization rate reduces car purchase. Because of supply heterogeneity in the data set, described by publicly available urban transportation data, this is the first study that can include geographic and urban infrastructure differences that influence purchase choice and suggests potential region-specific policy approaches to managing car purchase may be necessary.     

From user equilibrium to system optimum: a literature review on the role of travel information,bounded rationality and non-selfish behaviour at the network and individual levels

Travel information continues to receive significant attention in the field of travel behaviour research, as it is expected to help reduce congestion by directing the network state from a user equilibrium towards a more efficient system optimum. This literature review contributes to the existing literature in at least two ways. First, it considers both the individual perspective and the network perspective when assessing the potential effects of travel information, in contrast to earlier studies. Secondly, it highlights the role of bounded rationality as well as that of non-selfish behaviour in route choice and in response to information, complementing earlier reviews that mostly focused on bounded rationality only. It is concluded that information strategies should be tailor-made to an individual's level of rationality as well as level of selfishness in order to approach system-optimal conditions on the network level. Moreover, initial ideas and future research directions are provided for assessing the potential of travel information in order to improve network efficiency of existing road networks.     

Day-to-day traffic dynamics considering social interaction: From individual route choice behavior to a network flow model

Social interaction is increasingly recognized as an important factor that influences travelers’ behaviors. It remains challenging to incorporate its effect into travel choice behaviors, although there has been some research into this area. Considering random interaction among travelers, we model travelers’ day-to-day route choice under the uncertain traffic condition. We further explore the evolution of network flow based on the individual-level route choice model, though that travelers are heterogeneous in decision-making under the random-interaction scheme. We analyze and prove the existence of equilibrium and the stability of equilibrium. We also analyzed and described the specific properties of the network flow evolution and travelers’ behaviors. Two interesting phenomena are found in this study. First, the number of travelers that an individual interacts with can affect his route choice strategy. However, the interaction count exerts no influence on the evolution of network flow at the aggregate-level. Second, when the network flow reaches equilibrium, the route choice strategy at the individual-level is not necessarily invariable. Finally, two networks are used as numerical examples to show model properties and to demonstrate the two study phenomena. This study improves the understanding of travelers’ route choice dynamics and informs how the network flow evolves under the influence of social interaction.