Variances and covariances for origin-destination flows when estimated by log-linear models

An expression is derived for the variances and covariances of the logarithms of origin- destination flows when estimated by one of a family of log-linear models. Among this family is the Furness growth factor model, the gravity model, the Willumsen model and the Van Zuylen-Bell model. Variances and covariances for the logarithms of the parameters incorporating prior information and for the values of the constraints with which the fitted values must conform are transformed linearly into approximate variances and covariances for the logarithms of the fitted values. Additional error due to misspecification of either the model or the constraints is not taken into account. Depending on the model, the prior information parameters may correspond to values of a deterrence function or to a base year trip matrix, while the constraints may represent design year trip end totals or traffic counts. As an illustration, the expression is applied to an example involving Willumsen's model.     

A generic class of first order node models for dynamic macroscopic simulation of traffic flows

Node models for macroscopic simulation have attracted relatively little attention in the literature. Nevertheless, in dynamic network loading (DNL) models for congested road networks, node models are as important as the extensively studied link models. This paper provides an overview of macroscopic node models found in the literature, explaining both their contributions and shortcomings. A formulation defining a generic class of first order macroscopic node models is presented, satisfying a list of requirements necessary to produce node models with realistic, consistent results. Defining a specific node model instance of this class requires the specification of a supply constraint interaction rule and (optionally) node supply constraints. Following this theoretical discussion, specific macroscopic node model instances for unsignalized and signalized intersections are proposed. These models apply an oriented capacity proportional distribution of the available supply over the incoming links of a node. A computationally efficient algorithm to solve the node models exactly is included.     

A Bayesian approach for modeling origin-destination matrices

The majority of origin destination (OD) matrix estimation methods focus on situations where weak or partial information, derived from sample travel surveys, is available. Information derived from travel census studies, in contrast, covers the entire population of a specific study area of interest. In such cases where reliable historical data exist, statistical methodology may serve as a flexible alternative to traditional travel demand models by incorporating estimation of trip-generation, trip-attraction and trip-distribution in one model. In this research, a statistical Bayesian approach on OD matrix estimation is presented, where modeling of OD flows derived from census data, is related only to a set of general explanatory variables. A Poisson and a negative binomial model are formulated in detail, while emphasis is placed on the hierarchical Poisson-gamma structure of the latter. Problems related to the absence of closed-form expressions are bypassed with the use of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method known as the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The methodology is tested on a realistic application area concerning the Belgian region of Flanders on the level of municipalities. Model comparison indicates that negative binomial likelihood is a more suitable distributional assumption than Poisson likelihood, due to the great degree of overdispersion present in OD flows. Finally, several predictive goodness-of-fit tests on the negative binomial model suggest a good overall fit to the data. In general, Bayesian methodology reduces the overall uncertainty of the estimates by delivering posterior distributions for the parameters of scientific interest as well as predictive distributions for future OD flows.     

Optimal queue placement in dynamic system optimum solutions for single origin-destination traffic networks

The Dynamic System Optimum (DSO) traffic assignment problem aims to determine a time-dependent routing pattern of travellers in a network such that the given time-dependent origin-destination demands are satisfied and the total travel time is at a minimum, assuming some model for dynamic network loading. The network kinematic wave model is now widely accepted as such a model, given its realism in reproducing phenomena such as transient queues and spillback to upstream links. An attractive solution strategy for DSO based on such a model is to reformulate as a set of side constraints apply a standard solver, and to this end two methods have been previously proposed, one based on the discretisation scheme known as the Cell Transmission Model (CTM), and the other based on the Link Transmission Model (LTM) derived from variational theory. In the present paper we aim to combine the advantages of CTM (in tracking time-dependent congestion formation within a link) with those of LTM (avoiding cell discretisation, providing a more computationally attractive with much fewer constraints). The motivation for our work is the previously-reported possibility for DSO to have multiple solutions, which differ in where queues are formed and dissipated in the network. Our aim is to find DSO solutions that optimally distribute the congestion over links inside the network which essentially eliminate avoidable queue spillbacks. In order to do so, we require more information than the LTM can offer, but wish to avoid the computational burden of CTM for DSO. We thus adopt an extension of the LTM called the Two-regime Transmission Model (TTM), which is consistent with LTM at link entries and exits but which is additionally able to accurately track the spatial and temporal formation of the congestion boundary within a link (which we later show to be a critical element, relative to LTM). We set out the theoretical background necessary for the formulation of the network-level TTM as a set of linear side constraints. Numerical experiments are used to illustrate the application of the method to determine DSO solutions avoiding spillbacks, reduce/eliminate the congestion and to show the distinctive elements of adopting TTM over LTM. Furthermore, in comparison to a fine-level CTM-based DSO method, our formulation is seen to significantly reduce the number of linear constraints while maintaining a reasonable accuracy.     

A maximum entropy-least squares estimator for elastic origin-destination trip matrix estimation

In transportation subnetwork-supernetwork analysis, it is well known that the origin-destination (O-D) flow table of a subnetwork is not only determined by trip generation and distribution, but also a result from traffic routing and diversion, due to the existence of internal-external, external-internal and external-external flows. This result indicates the variable nature of subnetwork O-D flows. This paper discusses an elastic O-D flow table estimation problem for subnetwork analysis. The underlying assumption is that each cell of the subnetwork O-D flow table contains an elastic demand function rather than a fixed demand rate and the demand function can capture all traffic diversion effect under various network changes. We propose a combined maximum entropy-least squares estimator, by which O-D flows are distributed over the subnetwork in terms of the maximum entropy principle, while demand function parameters are estimated for achieving the least sum of squared estimation errors. While the estimator is powered by the classic convex combination algorithm, computational difficulties emerge within the algorithm implementation until we incorporate partial optimality conditions and a column generation procedure into the algorithmic framework. Numerical results from applying the combined estimator to a couple of subnetwork examples show that an elastic O-D flow table, when used as input for subnetwork flow evaluations, reflects network flow changes significantly better than its fixed counterpart.     

A dynamic approach to road freight flows modeling in Spain

This paper presents an innovative approach to analyzing road vehicle freight traffic that uses a dynamic panel data specification derived from a gravity model. This dynamic approach, which has recently been employed in international goods trade models in lieu of the traditional static specification, is applied to the case of Spain using data for the countrys 15 NUTS-3 regions between 1999 and 2009. Using the system general method of moments approach, we obtained significant evidence that the flow of vehicles carrying commodities by road has a strong persistence effect when controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. We also found that the quality of road transport infrastructure has a significant impact on vehicle trips. According to our findings, we suggest that this type of specification be employed in distribution models in which fixed effects and lags of the dependent variable are included to account for unobserved heterogeneity and persistence effects, respectively.     

Determining intermediate origin-destination matrices for the analysis of composite mode trips

We consider in this paper the problem of determining intermediate origin-destination matrices for composite mode trips that involve a trip by private car to a parking facility and the continuation of the trip to the destination either by walking or by a transit mode. The intermediate origin-destination matrices relate to each component of the composite mode trip: a matrix from the trip origins to intermediate destinations which are parking lots and a matrix from the parking lots to the final destinations. The approach that we propose to solve this problem is to modify the entropy based trip distribution models to consider inequality constraints related to parking lot capacities. Such models may be easily calibrated by using well known calibration methods or generalization of these methods and may be easily solved by applying a primal feasible direction method of nonlinear programming.     

The importance of information flows temporal attributes for the efficient scheduling of dynamic demand responsive transport services

The operation of a demand responsive transport service usually involves the management of dynamic requests. The underlying algorithms are mainly adaptations of procedures carefully designed to solve static versions of the problem, in which all the requests are known in advance. However there is no guarantee that the effectiveness of an algorithm stays unchanged when it is manipulated to work in a dynamic environment. On the other hand, the way the input is revealed to the algorithm has a decisive role on the schedule quality. We analyze three characteristics of the information flow (percentage of real‐time requests, interval between call‐in and requested pickup time and length of the computational cycle time), assessing their influence on the effectiveness of the scheduling process.     

A novel dynamic segmentation model for identification and prioritization of black spots based on the pattern of potential for safety improvement

Road segmentation is one of the most important steps in identification of high accident-proneness segments of a road. Based on the ratio of the Potential to Safety Improvement (PSI) along the road, the objective of the paper is to propose a novel dynamic road segmentation model. According to the fundamental model assumption, the determined segments must have the same pattern of PSI. Experimental results obtained from implementation of the proposed method took four Performance Measures (PMs) into consideration; namely, Crash Frequency, Crash Rate, Equivalent Property Damage Only, and Expected Average Crash Frequency with Empirical Bayes adjustment into the accident data obtained from Highway 37 located between two cities in Iran. Results indicated the low sensitivity of the method to PMs. In comparison with the real high accident-proneness segments, identified High Crash Road Segments (HCRS) obtained from the model, demonstrated the potential of the method to recognize the position and length of high accident-proneness segments accurately. Based on the road repair and maintenance costs limitation index for safety improvement, in an attempt to compare the proposed method of road segmentation with conventional ones, results demonstrated the efficient performance of the proposed method. So as to identify 20 percent HCRS located on a read, the proposed method showed an improvement of 38 and 57 percent in comparison with the best and worst outcomes derived from conventional road segmentation methods.     

A new strategy for minimum usage of external yaw moment in vehicle dynamic control system

Due to the loss of vehicle directional stability in emergency maneuvers, a new complete desired model for vehicle handling based on the linear two-degrees-of-freedom (2DOF) model and tire/road conditions is presented to be tracked by the direct yaw moment control (DYC) system. In order to maintain the vehicle actual motions, yaw rate and side-slip angle, close to the proposed desired responses without excessively large external yaw moment, a complete linear quadratic (LQ) optimal problem is formulated and its analytical solution is obtained. Here, the derived control law is evaluated and its different versions are discussed. It is shown that the side-slip tracking by DYC is more effective than the yaw rate control to stabilize vehicle motions in nonlinear regimes. Also, optimal property of the control law provides the possibility of reducing the external yaw moment as low as possible, at the cost of some admissible tracking errors. Simulation studies of vehicle handling, with and without control, have been conducted using a full nonlinear vehicle dynamic model. The results, obtained during various maneuvers, indicate that when the proposed optimal controller is engaged with the model, improvements in the handling performance through a reduced external yaw moment can be acquired.     

A new approach to time-of-day control based on a dynamic freeway traffic model

This paper presents a new approach to time-of-day control. While time-of-day control strategies presented up-to-now are only optimal under steady-state conditions, the control algorithm derived in this paper takes into account the evolution of traffic flow according to the time delay between a volume change at a ramp and its subsequent disturbance at a freeway point downstream. The new control strategy is based on the solution of a linear programming optimization problem and makes freeway volume hold the capacity constraints for the total time of control operation. In order to reduce the computational effort a simplified version of the new algorithm is also discussed. Simulation results obtained by use of two different traffic flow models show that control derived through the new algorithm can avoid congestion and ensure operation with peak performance even if a steady-state condition is never attained.     

A dynamic traffic assignment model for the assessment of moving bottlenecks

Moving bottlenecks in highway traffic are defined as a situation in which a slow-moving vehicle, be it a truck hauling heavy equipment or an oversized vehicle, or a long convey, disrupts the continuous flow of the general traffic. The effect of moving bottlenecks on traffic flow is an important factor in the evaluation of network performance. This effect, though, cannot be assessed properly by existing transportation tools, especially when the bottleneck travels relatively long distances in the network.This paper develops a dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model that can evaluate the effects of moving bottlenecks on network performance in terms of both travel times and traveling paths. The model assumes that the characteristics of the moving bottleneck, such as traveling path, physical dimensions, and desired speed, are predefined and, therefore, suitable for planned conveys.The DTA model is based on a mesoscopic simulation network-loading procedure with unique features that allow assessing the special dynamic characteristics of a moving bottleneck. By permitting traffic density and speed to vary along a link, the simulation can capture the queue caused by the moving bottleneck while preserving the causality principles of traffic dynamics.     

A dynamic stochastic assignment model for the analysis of general networks

The paper adopts the framework employed by the existing dynamic assignment models, which analyse specific network forms, and develops a methodology for analysing general networks. Traffic conditions within a link are assumed to be homogeneous, and the time varying O-D travel times and traffic flow patterns are calculated using elementary relationships from traffic flow theory and link volume conservation equations. Each individual is assumed to select a departure time and a route by trading off the travel time and schedule delay associated with each alternative. A route is considered as reasonable if it includes only links which do not take the traveller back to the origin. The set of reasonable routes is not consistant but depends on the time that an individual decides to depart from his origin. Equilibrium distributions are derived from a Markovian model which describes the evolution of travel patterns from day to day. Numerical simulation experiments are conducted to analyse the impact of different work start time flexibilities on the time dependent travel patterns. The similarity between link flows and travel times obtained from static and dynamic stochastic assignment is investigated. It is shown that in congested networks the application of static assignment results in travel times which are lower than the ones predicted by dynamic assignment.     

A macroscopic loading model for time-varying pedestrian flows in public walking areas

A macroscopic loading model applicable to time-dependent and congested pedestrian flows in public walking areas is proposed. Building on the continuum theory of pedestrian flows and the cell transmission model for car traffic, an isotropic framework is developed that can describe the simultaneous and potentially conflicting propagation of multiple pedestrian groups. The model is formulated at the aggregate level and thus computationally cheap, which is advantageous for studying large-scale problems. A detailed analysis of several basic flow patterns including counter- and cross flows, as well as two generic scenarios involving a corner- and a bottleneck flow is carried out. Various behavioral patterns ranging from disciplined queueing to impatient jostling can be realistically reproduced. Following a systematic model calibration, two case studies involving a Swiss railway station and a Dutch bottleneck flow experiment are presented. A comparison with the social force model and pedestrian tracking data shows a good performance of the proposed model with respect to predictions of travel time and density.     

A cell-based Merchant-Nemhauser model for the system optimum dynamic traffic assignment problem

A cell-based variant of the Merchant-Nemhauser (M-N) model is proposed for the system optimum (SO) dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) problem. Once linearized and augmented with additional constraints to capture cross-cell interactions, the model becomes a linear program that embeds a relaxed cell transmission model (CTM) to propagate traffic. As a result, we show that CTM-type traffic dynamics can be derived from the original M-N model, when the exit-flow function is properly selected and discretized. The proposed cell-based M-N model has a simple constraint structure and cell network representation because all intersections and cells are treated uniformly. Path marginal costs are defined using a recursive formula that involves a subset of multipliers from the linear program. This definition is then employed to interpret the necessary condition, which is a dynamic extension of the Wardrop’s second principle. An algorithm is presented to solve the flow holding back problem that is known to exist in many discrete SO-DTA models. A numerical experiment is conducted to verify the proposed model and algorithm.     

A dynamic pricing strategy for high occupancy toll lanes

High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes are emerging as a solution to the underutilization of High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes and also a means to generate revenue for the State Departments of Transportation. This paper proposes a method to determine the toll price dynamically in response to the changes in traffic condition, and describes the procedures for estimating the essential parameters. Such parameters include expected delays, available capacity for toll-paying vehicles and distribution of travelers’ value of time (VOT). The objective function of the proposed pricing strategy can be flexibly modified to minimize delay, maximize revenue or combinations of specified levels of delay and revenue. Real-world data from a 14-mile of freeway segment in the San Francisco Bay Area are used to demonstrate the applicability and feasibility of the proposed method, and findings and implications from this case study are discussed.     

A dynamic lane-changing trajectory planning model for automated vehicles

This paper focuses on the lane-changing trajectory planning (LTP) process in the automatic driving technologies. Existing studies on the LTP algorithms are primarily the static planning method in which the states of the surrounding vehicles of a lane-changing vehicle are assumed to keep unchanged in the whole lane-changing process. However, in real-world traffic, the velocities of the surrounding vehicles change dynamically, and the lane-changing vehicle needs to adjust its velocity and positions correspondingly in real-time to maintain safety. To address such limitations, the dynamic lane-changing trajectory planning (DLTP) model is proposed in the limited literature. This paper proposes a novel DLTP model consisting of the lane-changing starting-point determination module, trajectory decision module and trajectory generation module. The model adopts a time-independent polynomial trajectory curve to avoid the unrealistic assumptions on lane-changing velocities and accelerations in the existing DLTP model. Moreover, a rollover-avoidance algorithm and a collision-avoidance algorithm containing a reaction time are presented to guarantee the lane-changing safety of automated vehicles, even in an emergent braking situation. The field lane-changing data from NGSIM data are used to construct a real traffic environment for lane-changing vehicles and verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, and CarSim is applied to investigate the traceability of the planned lane-changing trajectories using the proposed model. The results indicate that an automated vehicle can complete the lane-changing process smoothly, efficiently and safely following the trajectory planned by the proposed model, and the planned velocity and trajectory can be well-tracked by automated vehicles.     

A route-based solution algorithm for dynamic user equilibrium assignments

The aim of this study is to establish a method to calculate good quality user equilibrium assignments under time varying conditions. For this purpose, it introduces a dynamic network loading method that can maintain correct flow propagation as well as flow conservation, and it shows a novel route-based solution algorithm. This novel algorithm turns out to be convenient and logically plausible compared to the conventional [Frank, M., Wolfe, P., 1956. An algorithm for quadratic programming. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 3, 95–110] algorithm, because the former does not require evaluation of an objective function and it finds solutions maintaining correct flow propagation in the time-varying network conditions. The application of novel dynamic network loading method and solution algorithm to test networks shows that we can find high quality dynamic user equilibrium assignment. This is illustrated in an example network using the deterministic queuing model for a link performance function and associating costs and flows in a predictive way in discrete time.