How big should transit be? Evidence on the benefits of reorganization from the San Francisco Bay Area

This paper studies whether the many public urban transit providers in the San Francisco Bay Area could realize cost economies by consolidating into larger systems. In this discussion, any benefits of rationalization are excluded, since these could be achieved without organizational changes.The results support the formation of larger multi-modal systems in the Bay Area. But care must be taken in selecting the candidates for reorganization, and a broad-brush approach could result in important lost opportunities for cost reduction. But if these economies are taken into account, and transit grows in the right directions, the benefits could be substantial.     

The effects of federal transit subsidy policy on investment decisions: The case of San Francisco's Geary Corridor

In the United States, federal funding for public transit often accounts for a large proportion of a local agency's budget, especially for capital investments. For this reason, local governments can be expected to plan a portfolio of projects that maximize federal contributions. This study examines the financial effects of federal transit subsidy policy on local transit investment decisions. Data from a System Planning Study for the Geary Corridor in San Francisco are used as an illustration. It is found that federal transit subsidy policy provides financial incentives for local decision-makers to select capital-intensive investment options that may not be efficient or effective. While federal financial incentives are not the only factor influencing local investment decisions, some reform of the current subsidy policy may be necessary to reduce the incentive for ineffective use of public resources.     

Coordinating buses and rapid rail in the San Francisco Bay Area: The case of Bay Area Rapid Transit

This paper examines attempts by planners and policy makers to analyze and bring about the coordination of rail and bus transit in the San Francisco Bay Area. Drawing on studies and plans before and after the creation of the rapid rail system BART (Bay Area Rapid Transit), the author points to technical, analytical and political problems in attempts to link BART and buses. Some options and cautions are presented for planners considering route coordination, feeder buses, transfers and institutional arrangements to manage bus and rail services.     

Sensitivity of prices to demand shocks: A natural experiment in the San Francisco Bay Area

We analyze the impact of a freeway interchange collapse in the San Francisco Bay Area on the difference in airfare quotes for travel into the area’s main airports. The incident temporarily made Oakland airport a less attractive choice for traveling to San Francisco, so we hypothesize that fares for travel into Oakland will be relatively lower while the freeway interchange was out of service. We test our contention using a sample of fare quotes collected on-line, and find the expected effect of a magnitude of 6–7%. Our results imply the following important conclusions. First, the demand-side shock was well absorbed by the supply side. Second, adjustment of prices and return to the status quo once the shock vanished was swift.     

On measuring the efficiency of public enterprises: Bus operating companies in the San Francisco Bay area

It is important to be able to say whether or not an enterprise in the public sector is efficient and to measure this aspect of its performance. Public enterprises sometimes have legitimate reason to treat efficiency as secondary, but they also may resist efficiency measurement for other reasons.Statistical cost functions containing experience from similar enterprises provide useful yardsticks for public administrators. A purported cost function can be inadequate, however, as is shown in one example.Statistical cost functions allow comparison of bus properties by giving a range within which costs of an efficient property should fall. While random influences cannot be excluded, if observed costs fall outside two standard errors of prediction, there is a good case to say the property is inefficient. The usefulness of the standard error of prediciton as a measure of precision is explored.Nationally estimated cost functions were used to investigate the bus operations only of three San Francisco companies. Two were found within sampling error, one was significantly more costly on its motorbus operations than average experience in the nation. A closer look would then be in order by those funding this property. Several years' experience is explored showing changes over time as well as across companies.This material was prepared with the support of National Science Foundation Grant No. GI-37181 to the University of California. The results and views are the independent product of university research and are not necessarily concurred in by the National Science Foundation. The Institute of Urban and Regional Development at U.C. Berkeley facilitated research herein.     

Suburbanization of jobs and the journey to work: A submarket analysis of commuting in the San Francisco bay area

Inrecent years, a debate has brewed over whether the decentralization of employment has been beneficial from a regional standpoint. In this article, we focus on one aspect of the debate: how the relocation of office workers from a downtown to a suburban location affects commuting patterns and mode choice. From a survey of 320 former downtown San Francisco workers who now work in the suburbs, we found that the average distance traveled remained essentially unchanged and that the average commuting speed increased. The most dramatic change, however, was the switch from public transit to drive-alone commuting. In the aggregate, we estimate that the change in job location was associated with nearly a threefold increase in vehicle miles traveled to work. While from a personal standpoint, employees seemed better off since they got to work faster and more comfortably, from a larger social and environmental perspective, the costs could be significant. More detailed analyses of commuter submarkets revealed that the transportation impacts vary considerably depending on whether the original residence was in the suburbs or central city and whether relocated workers had moved their residences in recent years. In general, those who remained in San Francisco and became reverse commuters were worst off whereas those who moved their residences out of the city were much better off in terms of job access. The article concludes that road pricing would be the best way to force motorists to internalize the external costs of increased drive-alone commuting. Second-best options would be to introduce development impact fees or employer-based trip reduction regulations.     

A micro-analysis of land use and travel in five neighborhoods in the San Francisco Bay Area

This study examined the effects of land use and attitudinal characteristics on travel behavior for five diverse San Francisco Bay Area neighborhoods. First, socio-economic and neighborhood characteristics were regressed against number and proportion of trips by various modes. The best models for each measure of travel behavior confirmed that neighborhood characteristics add significant explanatory power when socio-economic differences are controlled for. Specifically, measures of residential density, public transit accessibility, mixed land use, and the presence of sidewalks are significantly associated with trip generation by mode and modal split. Second, 39 attitude statements relating to urban life were factor analyzed into eight factors: pro-environment, pro-transit, suburbanite, automotive mobility, time pressure, urban villager, TCM, and workaholic. Scores on these factors were introduced into the six best models discussed above. The relative contributions of the socio-economic, neighborhood, and attitudinal blocks of variables were assessed. While each block of variables offers some significant explanatory power to the models, the attitudinal variables explained the highest proportion of the variation in the data. The finding that attitudes are more strongly associated with travel than are land use characteristics suggests that land use policies promoting higher densities and mixtures may not alter travel demand materially unless residents' attitudes are also changed.     

The impact of rail transit on land use: Evidence and a change of perspective

On the basis of available evidence we cannot clearly establish a causal relationship between rail transit and changes in land use and development patterns. At best, such changes would seem to occur only in the presence of other favorable factors, such as supportive local land use policies and development incentives, availability of developable land and a good investment climate. In any event, however, determining the precise extent of rail investment's effect on urban structure is less important than assessing the role it could play in an overall strategy for reaching larger urban goals.     

Making do: The effects of a mass transit strike on travel behavior

A brief transit strike in early December 1976 disrupted bus services to the city of Pittsburgh and surrounding Allegheny County. That strike provided an opportunity for testing a variety of approaches to increase ride-sharing and to reduce traffic congestion, and for examining the effect of the strike on traffic congestion and on individual travel behavior. Even though over 60% of the commuters to the CBD use transit, the effects of the strike were relatively mild. There was some increase in traffic flow into the CBD and some spreading of the peak period. The largest proportion of the transit commuters who made trips to the CBD during the strike were dropped off by a non-commuter, increasing highway traffic. The most severe impact was felt by those transit commuters who had no cars in the household; 25% of these commuters (only 3% of the total CBD commuters) stayed home from work on the first day of the strike. Most attempts to mitigate the impact of the strike had little effect, largely because most commuters were able to manage adequately during the short strike. The anticipated parking problem, on which much of the contingency planning was focused, did not emerge, largely because of the use of carpooling and drop-off mode by many of the transit users.     

Coordination of urban transit services: The german model

In Germany, the need for coordination and integration of transport services has been seen as a pre-condition to improving public transportation. A major step in this direction,which attracted world-wide attention, has been the institution of the Transport Federation (Verkehrs verbund). The paper discusses the operation of the Hamburg Transit Federation and considers a number of factors which have created a favorable climate for the development of public transportation in Germany.     

Understanding Travel Time Expenditures Around the World: Exploring the Notion of a Travel Time Frontier

Travel behavior researchers have been intrigued by the amount of time that people allocate to travel in a day, i.e., the daily travel time expenditure, commonly referred to as a “travel time budget”. Explorations into the notion of a travel time budget have once again resurfaced in the context of activity-based and time use research in travel behavior modeling. This paper revisits the issue by developing the notion of a travel time frontier (TTF) that is distinct from the actual travel time expenditure or budget of an individual. The TTF is defined in this paper as an intrinsic maximum amount of time that people are willing to allocate for travel. It is treated as an unobserved frontier that influences the actual travel time expenditure measured in travel surveys. Using travel survey datasets from around the world (i.e., US, Switzerland and India), this paper sheds new light on daily travel time expenditures by modeling the unobserved TTF and comparing these frontiers across international contexts. The stochastic frontier modeling methodology is employed to model the unobserved TTF as a production frontier. Separate models are estimated for commuter and non-commuter samples to recognize the differing constraints between these market segments. Comparisons across the international contexts show considerable differences in average unobserved TTF values.     

The future of transit technology: Lessons from EXPO 86

Expo 86, the World Exposition held last year in Vancouver, Canada, was the largest, special-category world's fair ever staged, with 54 international participants. Given the designated theme of transportation and communications, it is interesting to interpret the statements made by the participants in regard to particular sub-theme areas such as urban transit. This paper reviews the presentations (exhibits, demonstrations, conferences, and seminars) developed by all participants in Expo 86 in regard to urban transit technology, and assesses the significance and direction of technological developments in the areas of vehicle and terminal design, network and system operation and control, and planning and management systems.     

The auto versus transit controversy: Toward a rational synthesis for urban transportation policy

Considerable portion of academic literature on urban transportation has been supportive of policies which resulted in extensive urban freeway construction, but highly critical of public investments in transit. This paper challenges these views and points out many flaws in their basic arguments. Criticism of rail transit is particularly emotionally biased and it is in direct conflict with real world trends: the number of cities in the United States and other countries which have constructed rail transit as a key element of their viability has steadily increased in the last two decades. For solution of the present serious urban transportation problems, there should be a rational policy which recognizes capabilities of different modes and leads to their optimal coordination in a multimodal system.     

Economic and occupational causes of transit operator absenteeism: a review of research

Transit operator absence from work is a costly and pervasive problem within public transport organizations. This paper reviews over forty international studies in order to document significant factors related to this phenomenon. We begin with a brief assessment of the magnitude and costs of operator absence and isolate two major theories which have been proposed to explain operator absence behaviour: the income‐leisure trade‐off and occupational stress. Case study reports from three U.S. public transport organizations are used to illustrate the range of factors which influence employee absence behaviour. We conclude with suggestions for organizational changes which may serve to reduce operator absence and suggestions for further research.     

The importance of time in transit and reliability of transit time for shippers,receivers, and carriers

Reliability of transit time is reputed to be the most important variable influencing freight transport today, according to shipper surveys. Average transit time also plays a major role. A model is developed that shows how a cost-minimizing shipper will adjust its economic order quantity as reliability and/or time in transit changes. Such changes impact on average inventory costs, ordering costs, expected shortage costs and expected excess costs. The model is developed for both discrete and continuous transit time distributions. Reliability is defined as the variance of transit time. A matrix is prepared for some sample data, which shows the minimum cost attainable with each mean/variance of transit time distribution. Comparing across rows and columns of the matrix enables one to show the value (reduction in total cost) obtainable by improving reliability and/or mean transit time. In addition, value can be obtained by improving reliability while increasing average transit time. It is suggested that the model can be used for shippers in negotiating service improvements with carriers and by carriers in negotiating service improvements with shippers. In the former case, the carrier can determine how much they are willing to pay for the improvement, whereas in the latter case, the carriers can determine how much they are able to charge for the improvement.     

Fare deregulation of transit services: Winners and losers in a competitive market

Currently, the Hong Kong government imposes fare control on buses and taxi while the rail services are immune to such a control. This study examined four scenarios of fare deregulation on transit services by considering three related parties of a transit system – service providers, travelers, and society in general, with their respective objectives represented as – revenue, travel utility, and congestion. Analyzing the resultant impacts on these three parties, we found that a different regulatory environment would favor or hurt a different set of parties. There is no clear win‐win situation for all parties. Deciding a socially acceptable regulatory environment is likely to involve difficult tradeoffs among these parties.     

Automatic fare collection in transit: a synthesis of current practice

Many industries are keeping pace with changing technology in an effort to improve operating efficiency and attract consumers with innovations. The transit industry is no exception, one example being the installation and operation of automatic fare‐collection (AFC) systems. There are many issues to consider in implementing an AFC system, including the type of equipment required and the expected quality of system performance.

This article presents a synthesis of several sources of information pertaining to AFC operations. It includes a discussion of system requirements, and the advantages and disadvantages of system operation. Performance measures of reliability and maintainability are also defined, and AFC systems are evaluated using these measures. Several conclusions are reached concerning current AFC practice.