2008年班轮运价或将“水涨船高”

临近岁末，盘点收获、展望来年，已是一道回避不去的“例菜”。A．P．穆勒一马士基集团执行副总裁苏恩深坚定地认为，正确的预测是行业稳定的关键。在刚结束的“国际海运（中国）年会2007”上，这位大牌“航运界明星”还颇有寓意地援引《集装箱航运经理人》中的一段话来告诫业内：“集装箱行业有许多智者，但在面临压力时，这种智慧往往用得不是地方，从而造成恐慌并犯下了错误。”     

Container liner freight index based on data from e-booking platforms

This article proposes a framework for a daily container freight index (DCFI) and investigates a number of principles in the design of this type of indices. Based on a comparative analysis with the existing container freight indices, we explore a method of integrating the framework with the use of data from e-booking platforms and illustrate why the new index can provide more insightful information for shippers. We also apply the framework to have a daily Shanghai container freight index by combining data sources from the platforms linked to the Shanghai port. By implementing the index to a risk analysis problem, we use numerical results to show the DCFI’s potential position in real hedging problems for container liner markets.     

Liner freight rates,discrimination and cross-subsidization

This paper reviews some of the current literature concerning liner freight rates. While upholding the traditional basis for the establishment of freight rate structures it disputes some of the arguments that discrimination or differential pricing policies lead to cross-subsidization of low rated by higher rated cargoes.     

交通部加强对班轮公会和运价协议组织进行监管

为促进我国国际集装箱班轮运输市场的健康发展,维护国际航运市场公平竞争秩序,保护承运人和托运人的合法权益,根据《中华人民共和国国际海运条例》及其实施细则等相关规定,交通部近日对涉及中国航线的班轮公会和运价协议组织的有关事项下发《关于加强对班轮公会和运价协议组织监管的公告》,公告具体内容如下:     

Liner freight rates, discrimination and cross-subsidization

This paper reviews some of the current literature concerning liner freight rates. While upholding the traditional basis for the establishment of freight rate structures it disputes some of the arguments that discrimination or differential pricing policies lead to cross-subsidization of low rated by higher rated cargoes.     

运价备案制度 保障航运企业权益

<正>一直以来,我国航运运价主要由市场主导,经营者根据市场需求自行调节。然而在金融海啸席卷全球之时,这种完全市场化的运价调整却显现出弊端——需求大幅下滑,调低价格成为航运企业开展恶性竞争的唯一手段。新情况的出现给有关部门管理者提供了     

A static theory of dry bulk freight rates by route

Trade flows subjected to a major upheaval are followed by a reorganized freight rate structure. Rate functions developed under the old regime are unlikely to perform well because they are implicitly based on the circulation of tonnage which no longer applies, for example fronthauls and backhauls. A gravity-type static model capable of estimating route-specific rate levels from trade matrix data is developed and tested with historical data. The rates are in index form which makes it possible to integrate data from several ship size segments (large capesize, small capesize, panamax, handysize) and years.     

A static theory of dry bulk freight rates by route

Trade flows subjected to a major upheaval are followed by a reorganized freight rate structure. Rate functions developed under the old regime are unlikely to perform well because they are implicitly based on the circulation of tonnage which no longer applies, for example fronthauls and backhauls. A gravity-type static model capable of estimating route-specific rate levels from trade matrix data is developed and tested with historical data. The rates are in index form which makes it possible to integrate data from several ship size segments (large capesize, small capesize, panamax, handysize) and years.     

金融危机下基于CCFI指数的中美航线集装箱班轮运价研究

运用CCFI指数,通过对美国经贸形势和中美航线运量运力的调查分析,解析金融危机下2008—2009年中美航线集装箱班轮运价的波动过程,并简要地对2010年的中美航运市场进行展望。     

Conditional modelling of tanker market risk using route specific freight rates

This paper provides statistical evidence in support of the view, widely held in the tanker industry, that there are systematic differences in the degree of risk involved in investing in tankers of different sizes, and in operating tankers in spot and time charter markets. The industry view, broadly supported by the results of this paper, is that larger vessels are 'risker' assets than smaller vessels, and operating vessels in the time-charter market is less risky than employing them on a spot basis. The results are obtained by using a method derived from the financial economics literature, which models both the conditional mean and variance of a variable, known as GARCH modelling. Only one other paper has applied this method to the tanker market, and these results provide confirmatory support of those findings.     

Modelling forward freight rate dynamics—empirical evidence from time charter rates

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics of forward freight rate dynamics. We specify our model in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework. This model was originally developed for interest rate markets and, in subsequent work, the model has been applied to various commodity markets. We analyse ten years of weekly time charter (TC) rates for a Panamax 65,000 dwt bulk carrier. Our data set consists of 6-, 12- and 36-month TC rates. We use this data to construct, each day, a forward rate function using a smoothing algorithm. We use the smooth data to investigate the factors governing the dynamics of the forward freight rate curve. We find a strange volatility structure in the data. Out results show that the volatility of the forward curve is bumped, with volatility reaching a peak for freight rates with roughly one year to maturity. Also, correlations between different parts of the term structure are in general low and even negative.     

客货混装船主机汽缸套严重裂纹原因分析与预防

文章基于一次修理中发现汽缸套严重裂纹的故障,根据汽缸套的结构特点和技术要求,从产品质量、维修工艺、操作使用3个方面分析了汽缸套产生裂纹的原因,提出了预防裂纹产生的措施。     

航运期权在运费市场中的应用

在国际海上运输中,大部分运量是通过不定期船（即租船）运输实现的。不定期船运输的特点决定不定期船运输市场接近完全竞争结构。受供求、政治、天气和心理等多方面因素的影响,不定期船运费率瞬息万变。单个船舶所有人或租船人没有能力控制和影响市场运价,只能被动接受,这就给经营者带来极大的风险和不确定性。因此,贸易商和船舶所有人迫切需要推出基于运费的期货品种,用来应对运费市场的巨大波动。     

Combination hedging strategies for crude oil and dry bulk freight rates on the impacts of dynamic cross-market interaction

The fluctuation of freight rates revenue and the fierce volatility of oil cost are two of the most key risk exposures in the shipping industry. However, neglecting the dynamic interrelationship between the cost and the revenue markets leads to the overestimation or underestimation of hedging ratios, which makes the present single hedge strategy less efficient. This paper proposes an optimal combination hedging model for a shipowner trading the derivatives of crude oil and dry bulk freight rates simultaneously with the cross-market economic linkages. We investigate the impacts of spillover transmission, structural breaks, and dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) on the optimal combination hedging trading. It is found that the significant volatility transmission between oil future and dry bulk forward freight agreements suggests a high dependence of the Capesize sector on the oil fluctuations, which means that the dynamic cross-market interactions have significant impacts on the aggregate risk exposures. Furthermore, the DCCs incorporating structural breaks significantly improve the performance of the combination hedge, which is superior to the two separate hedging strategies. Our study offers new insights into how the freight rates and oil markets relate to a combination hedging, which can be used to promote the risk management in the market.     

Tanker forward freight agreements: the future for freight futures?

Since paper freight-hedging tools were introduced to counter volatile tanker freight rates, the hesitant uptake of tanker Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) has been attributed to traditional risk seeking propensities amongst tanker owners, naturally reluctant to hedge against risk. To test how far the well-documented generic determinants and incentives for corporate hedging could explain this hesitation in the tanker market, the attitudes of tanker owners and charterers towards freight hedging, risk and perceptions of FFAs, were surveyed. Although FFAs were widely viewed as an important development, some respondents were unaware of their function and a majority had not used them. The link between freight hedging activity and participants' risk aversion was not clear-cut, but with market liquidity critical to raising FFA usage improved technical education is essential to widespread acceptance     

货运兴旺水涨船--当前集装箱船建造特征及市场展望

经过2001年的低谷及2002年的逐步恢复,集装箱船市场于2003年全面恢复,新船订单、手持订单量创历史新高,2004年以来,集装箱船建造市场继续保持旺盛需求,大型集装箱船订造空前火爆。     

远期运费协议的应用

为推动远期运费协议（FFA）的应用,从航运市场运费风险规避的角度出发,分析套期保值、投机和套利等3种FFA投资策略以及基本面分析、技术分析这2种交易分析手段,以期通过掌握正确的投资策略和操作方法,在FFA市场上实现理想目标。     

Spatial efficiency in the bulk freight market

In the short run, there can be substantial differences in spot freight earnings between geographical regions of the global freight market for bulk carriers. Such differences can be consistent with an efficient market if they are temporary and if they cannot be exploited financially by pursuing chartering strategies that are based on publicly available information. In this paper, we apply a simple optimal switching model to evaluate whether such chartering strategies exist. We model the spot freight rate differential between the Atlantic and Pacific basins as a mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and the entry–exit decision using the discount factor approach, which results in optimal trigger values for the entry/exit from each basin. Our empirical results suggest that the market is spatially efficient during normal freight market conditions when there is a surplus of vessels. The tight market conditions during the 2003–2008 freight market boom caused a persistent upward bias in Atlantic freight rates, but also here we find little added value from pursuing an active switching strategy.