我国航空物流与区域经济耦合协调度实证研究

推进航空物流产业与区域经济协同发展是实现区域经济一体化、优化资源配置的重要路径。也是促进产业结构优化升级、实现经济高质量发展的重要保障。本文以我国31个省份航空物流与区域经济进行耦合协调度分析。结果表明,我国的航空物流与区域经济之间总体呈现出一定的耦合协调性,并且耦合协调程度不断提高,但整体上仍处于勉强耦合状态,且不同地区耦合协调度存在着显著的区域性不均衡问题,研究结论对于科学认知我国航空物流与区域经济协调发展现状及时空演变规律具有重要参考价值。     

基于SD模型的京沪高铁对沿线亟待发展城市的经济影响研究——以沧州市为例

以沧州市为例,从系统的角度分析京沪高铁对沿线亟待发展城市经济影响机制,找出京沪高铁-城市经济发展系统的构成要素,明确系统内部的反馈机制,构建了京沪高铁-城市经济发展系统的动力学模型。以沧州市2012—2018年的相关数据为基础,论证了京沪高铁对沧州市经济总量、第二产业、第三产业发展,就业人口数量增长的促进作用及沧州市经济增长对京沪高铁沧州站的客运量增长的正向影响。沧州市的三次产业结构比逐年优化,并且从长期来看京沪高铁与沧州市经济相互促进增长的效应会进一步扩大。     

公路运输与区域经济建设的耦合协调特征分析——以云南省为例

在分析公路运输综合水平和区域经济发展耦合机理的基础上,以云南省"十二五"末年公路运输与区域经济统计数据为基础,运用熵权法进行权重计算,借鉴物理学耦合理论建立公路运输与区域经济建设耦合协调度模型,分析了云南省公路运输与区域经济建设的耦合协调特征。结果显示:"十二五"期间全省公路运输发展水平普遍高于区域经济建设水平,昆明市公路运输和区域经济建设综合发展水平最高,怒江州最低,红河州二者的发展水平差异性最大,西双版纳州最小;云南省公路运输和区域经济耦合协调程度存在明显的空间分布差异,整体呈现为滇中、滇东南、滇西、滇东北、滇西南、滇西北递减的态势。     

京津冀交通一体化与区域经济耦合:基于熵权法的协调分析

研究京津冀交通一体化与区域经济协调发展关系有助于提高对加快推进京津冀协同发展背景下交通一体化进程的认知。本文在分析交通运输与经济系统相互作用机制的基础上,建立了交通一体化与区域经济协调发展的评价指标;采用熵权法为各指标进行赋权,构建了交通一体化与区域经济协调发展的耦合分析模型;对京津冀区域2007—2016年交通运输与区域经济之间的耦合协调度进行计算。计算结果显示:两者耦合度虽然存在波动,但总体上是稳步提高,耦合协调等级从失调逐步向协调转变,特别是2014年国家提出京津冀一体化战略以来,两者耦合协调度明显提高,且协调度呈现增长趋势。这同时也可以反映了京津冀交通一体化对河北省经济发展有的促进和良性互动作用。     

东北民用航空业与区域经济耦合协调性分析

文章以东北地区为例,对民用航空业与区域经济二者之间的关系进行研究。将民用航空业与区域经济视为两个系统,确定两个系统的各级评价指标,形成指标体系,结合熵权法建立二者之间的耦合协调度模型,采用2007年至2016年间的数据进行分析,得出该时间段内的东北地区民用航空业与区域经济的耦合度与协调度。模型结果表明东北地区民用航空业和区域经济之间的耦合程度与协调程度总体较好,针对个别不稳定的年份,找出主要原因,提出合理化建议。     

我国区域性城市群与机场群的协调发展研究

城市群与机场群发展之间存在着相辅相成、相互影响的关系。文章以京津冀、大湾区、长三角和成渝地区为研究对象，从构建城市群和机场群发展评价指标体系入手，采用熵权原理计算指标权重，运用耦合协调度模型对四个城市群和机场群耦合协调状况进行分析。结果表明，在区域协调发展背景下，长三角处于初级协调阶段，京津冀和大湾区处于轻度失调阶段，成渝处于中度失调阶段。对于以上结果，结合区域协调发展相关政策，提出建议，提升区域耦合协调水平。     

内河港产城联动耦合协调度测算——以浙江省为例

借鉴经典的港产城理论，探索构建内河航运的港产城联动耦合协调度评价指标体系和评价模型，对浙江省8大内河城市进行实证分析。综合考虑所在城市的社会经济发展、产业结构与规模、内河客货运相关规模与结构等因素构建了内河港产城耦合协调度的评价指标体系，评价模型计算结果表明，目前浙江省1个城市处于良好协调状态，3个城市处于中级协调状态，1个城市处于初级协调状态，3个城市处于失调状态。针对浙江省内河港产城联动发展短板提出了相应对策建议。     

中心城市发展成为区域物流中心应具备的环境条件分析

<正>当前一些中心城市把物流作为支柱产业进行发展,并把中心城市建设成为经济区域范围内的物流中心作为目标,如上海、北京、天津、深圳、武汉等中心城市,其他一些城市也着手物流中心建设,以期成为区域或地区范围内的物流中心。区域物流中心的实质是使中心城市具有经济区域或地区范围内的物流管理、组织、信息中心的功能,这要求中心城市自身的物流运作需达到较高水准,而且还要担负支持区域内物流运作、组织和信息管理的任务。应该注意到,中心城市发展成为区域     

基于多种群遗传BP的城市物流需求预测

城市物流需求预测是城市物流规划的重要前提,为了提高物流需求预测的精度,本文首先通过分析影响城市物流需求的经济活动,选取城市物流需求预测的指标。随后,为了改善BP算法预测效果受到网络初始权值与阈值影响的缺陷,提出多种群遗传BP算法进行改进。通过仿真表明,该方法与BP预测模型以及单种群遗传BP预测模型相比,具有较高的预测精度。     

基于新发展理念的中国民航高质量发展指标体系研究

以新发展理念为指导，本文首先建立了包含五大维度、31个指标的中国民航高质量发展指标体系，然后采用熵权法、TOPSIS方法等测算2008-2018年的民航高质量发展水平，分析其稳步上升又各有不同的发展特征，再后利用耦合协调度模型分析五大维度之间的关系，最后根据研究结果对民航高质量发展提出政策建议。     

Measuring energy and environmental efficiency of transportation systems in China based on a parallel DEA approach

Because of China’s rapid economic development, its transportation system has become one of China’s high-energy-consumption and high-pollution-emission sectors. However, little research has been done which pays close attention to China’s transportation system, especially in terms of energy and environmental efficiency evaluation. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA) is applied to measure the energy and environment performance of transportation systems in China with the goal of sustainable development. This paper treats transportation as a parallel system consisting of subsystems for passenger transportation and freight transportation, and extends a parallel DEA approach to evaluate the efficiency of each subsystem. An efficiency decomposition procedure is proposed to obtain the highest achievable subsystem efficiency. Our empirical study on 30 of mainland China’s provincial-level regions shows that most of them have a low efficiency in their transportation system and the two parallel subsystems. There are large efficiency differences between the passenger and freight transportation subsystems. In addition, unbalanced development has occurred in the three large areas of China, with the east having the highest efficiency, followed by central China and then west. Therefore, more measures should be taken to balance and coordinate the development between the three large areas and between the two subsystems within them. Our analysis approach gives data for determining effective measures.     

航空物流与区域经济高质量发展协同性——基于重庆的实证研究

自2017年十九大提出经济高质量发展以来,重庆根据中央部署,经济高质量发展取得了初步成功。在这一过程中,发现航空物流产业与区域经济高质量发展间存在正相关关系。为了研究重庆航空物流与区域经济高质量发展的协同性,采用数据包络分析(DEA)模型,对重庆市2008年至2018年GDP、航空货邮吞吐量等指标进行代入计算。结果表明,重庆航空物流与区域经济高质量发展存在较高的协同性,且呈现上升趋势,但由于航空物流和区域经济发展内部资源分配不合理,导致有效协同发展程度波动较大。结合重庆市实际情况,以资源配置优化为侧重点,提出提高二者协同性的建议。     

Performance evaluation and obstacle factors analysis of urban public transport priority

ABSTRACT

Through the comprehensive consideration of four subsystems – overall development level, infrastructure construction, public transportation service level and policy support – an index system of public transport priority performance evaluation is established. A performance evaluation of bus priority implementation in Wuhan City from 2007 to 2016 is carried out by applying the difference coefficient CRITIC-TOPSIS model. The obstacle factor model is also used to diagnose the factors affecting the priority performance of urban public transport. The research results show that, during this decade, the comprehensive performance of Wuhan City’s public transport priority developed from poor to medium, then to good and finally to excellent. The overall development level and infrastructure construction performance subsystems have the highest obstacle degree, followed by public transportation service levels and policy support performance subsystems. The research idea and method of this paper provide a realistic basis for promoting the priority performance of urban public transport.     

Location selection of city logistics centers under sustainability

City Logistics Centers (CLC) are an important part of the modern urban logistics system, and the selection of the location of a CLC has become a key problem in logistics and supply chain management. Integrating the economic, environmental, and social dimensions of sustainable development, this paper presents a new evaluation system for the location selection of a CLC from a sustainability perspective. A fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making (FMAGDM) technique based on a linguistic 2-tuple is used to evaluate potential alternative CLC locations. In this method, the linguistic evaluation values of all the evaluation criteria are transformed into linguistic 2-tuples. A new 2-tuple hybrid ordered weighted averaging (THOWA) operator is presented to aggregate the overall evaluation values of all experts into a collective evaluation value for each alternative, which is then used to rank and select alternative CLC locations. An application example is provided to validate the method developed and to highlight the implementation, practicality, and effectiveness by comparing with the fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method.     

长三角民航协同规划的上海实践

推进长三角交通一体化规划落地是实施国家长三角一体化发展战略的重要基础。通过系统梳理上海多年空间规划实践经验,遵循城市群、机场群、近沪地区、全球城市多机场体系的逻辑思路,基于问题导向和目标导向,提出优先实现近沪地区民航紧密联系的规划突破点。临近地区民航协同,需要实现发展目标、通道枢纽、飞行保障、运输服务、货运物流、设施建设、重大项目、进度时序等多方面系统协同,建立契约关系,以市场化方式实践区域民航协同发展。     

Bridge and tunnel toll elasticities in New York

In 1992, the authors carried out a statistical analysis of Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority (TBTA) crossings in New York City, to determine the impact of toll increases on traffic volumes and revenue. Using twelve years of monthly time-series data, we developed a set of multiple regression models that estimated traffic volumes on each TBTA bridge and tunnel as a function of the toll level and other explanatory variables. In most cases, the estimated toll elasticities were negative and much less than 1.0 in absolute value; the median toll elasticity for automobiles was found to be –0.10. Our finding that automobile travel demand is highly inelastic with respect to toll rates is consistent with most previous travel demand studies.     

高铁枢纽建设与城市功能空间协同发展效率评价

随着我国高铁迅速发展,高铁建设如何与城市功能空间协同发展的问题引起广泛关注。为了评价高铁与城市协同发展的效率,本文从城市协同性、高铁枢纽建设、站城距离等角度,构建高铁枢纽建设与城市功能空间协同发展效率评价指标体系。并引入DEA模型进行分析计算其效率匹配度,为城市既有高铁站与城市协同发展程度提供依据。最后以京沪高铁为案例分析了24个车站与所在城市的协同关系效率值,结果表明,北京南站、上海虹桥站等高铁枢纽发展较好,常州北站、苏州北站、天津南站等较差,尤其是天津南站的通过能力、客流量等产出指标还需要进一步加强。     

ICT Adoption among Logistics Companies in ASEAN Countries

In this era of globalization, adoption of information and communication technology (ICT) is one of the critical determinants of logistics companies' competitiveness and growth. This is especially so for the ASEAN countries as they pursue the vision of regional economic development and integration. Existing empirical studies on ICT adoption by logistics companies in developing countries are, however, scarce and have limited theoretical support and so far no comparative analysis of ICT adoption among ASEAN logistics companies and its determinants has been undertaken. This paper investigates the level of ICT adoption among ASEAN logistics companies and also develops an investment-based model to explain it. The model is evaluated with logistic regression using firm-level data collected from interviews with a sample of ASEAN logistics companies. The study finds that ICT adoption level varies significantly among the ASEAN countries and provides an empirical support for an investment-based view of ICT adoption. It also finds no further evidence for the relevance of the institutional theory to the ASEAN logistics industry. These findings have important strategic and policy implications for the ASEAN policy-makers and logistics industry.     

Inter-temporal variation in the travel time and travel cost parameters of transport models

The parameters for travel time and travel cost are central in travel demand forecasting models. Since valuation of infrastructure investments requires prediction of travel demand for future evaluation years, inter-temporal variation of the travel time and travel cost parameters is a key issue in forecasting. Using two identical stated choice experiments conducted among Swedish drivers with an interval of 13 years, 1994 and 2007, this paper estimates the inter-temporal variation in travel time and cost parameters (under the assumption that the variance of the error components of the indirect utility function is equal across the two datasets). It is found that the travel time parameter has remained constant over time but that the travel cost parameter has declined in real terms. The trend decline in the cost parameter can be entirely explained by higher average income level in the 2007 sample compared to the 1994 sample. The results support the recommendation to keep the travel time parameter constant over time in forecast models, but to deflate the travel cost parameter with the forecasted income increase among travellers and the relevant income elasticity of the cost parameter. Evidence from this study further suggests that the inter-temporal and the cross-sectional income elasticities of the cost parameter are equal. The average elasticity is found to be ?0.8 to ?0.9 in the present sample of drivers, and the elasticity is found to increase with the real income level, both in the cross-section and over time.