基于灰色马尔可夫理论的油气管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测

以灰色理论的标准GM（1,1）模型和马尔可夫TPM理论为基础,提出了基于灰色马尔可夫理论的油气管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测方法。利用灰色马尔可夫理论预测腐蚀油气管道剩余寿命的步骤主要包括：最大允许腐蚀深度的确定,腐蚀速率的预测以及剩余寿命预测。并基于该方法,采用VB系统开发了实用软件,简便可靠。该方法可以在腐蚀速率波动比较大的情况下预测油气管道的剩余寿命,为油气管道腐蚀检测周期的确定提供了科学依据。     

石油运输管道腐蚀原因和腐蚀速率预测研究

管道运输是石油生产输送中一种重要的运输方式,其运行的安全可靠性已经引起了高度的重视.介绍了管道的腐蚀机理,分析了影响腐蚀的因素,从内、外防腐蚀,阴极保护等方面论述了防腐蚀的应对措施.为了对输油管道的腐蚀速率进行预测,掌握输油管道腐蚀的基本规律,介绍了几种常用的油气集输管道腐蚀速率预测研究方法,为今后石油运输管道腐蚀的研...     

基于BP神经网络的川气东送管道土壤腐蚀预测

通过现场埋片和土壤理化性质试验确定了影响川气东送管道腐蚀速率的主要土壤因素,对39个试验点的X70钢质试片的腐蚀数据进行分析,构建了X70钢材土壤腐蚀预测模型,利用该模型在BP神经网络中训练、模拟,并运用MATLAB软件对神经网络进行编程,将预测结果与现场X70埋片腐蚀实验结果对比。结果表明:运用BP神经网络可以建立稳定性好的土壤腐蚀预测模型,预测川气东送管道X70钢材在土壤中的腐蚀速率的准确度达到90%以上。     

基于人工蜂群优化小波神经网络的隧道沉降预测

小波神经网络存在收敛速度较慢、易陷入局部最优的缺陷,而人工蜂群算法收敛速度快且同时具有局部和全局搜索的能力。文章利用人工蜂群算法对小波神经网络进行优化,形成人工蜂群小波神经网络,并将其应用于地铁隧道沉降预测;并以深圳地铁10号线为例,将该模型的预测结果与BP神经网络、小波神经网络进行对比分析。结果表明,人工蜂群小波神经网络较其它两种模型的预测精度更高,预测结果更稳定。     

高含水集输管道内腐蚀预测与检测技术及应用

高含水油气管道内腐蚀穿孔频发,严重影响生产和环境。因此,油气管道内腐蚀的预测与检测是亟待解决的问题。常规检测耗资大,且效果差,结合美国腐蚀工程师协会内腐蚀直接评价标准和流体数值仿真技术(CFD)预测管道内腐蚀模型并与现场管道高程数据相结合,实现对高含水油气管线积水与易发内腐蚀位置的预测,针对该位置开展管体腐蚀检测,该方法在现场得到成功应用。通过现场检测数据来验证和修正预测模型,为解决高含水油气管道内腐蚀提供一种方法。     

腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测方法

基于可靠性理论,提出了一种预测管道腐蚀剩余寿命的新方法,即管道腐蚀可靠性寿命预测方法。该方法包括建立腐蚀管道的失效状态函数、腐蚀速率等变量的概率分布模型、管道失效概率和可靠度随时间的变化规律;然后根据管道所处地区级别和风险等级给定目标可靠度,确定管道的腐蚀剩余寿命。运用此方法预测了新疆采油一厂红浅注汽管道的腐蚀剩余寿命,为该管道腐蚀检测周期的确定提供了科学依据。     

高含水原油集输管道内腐蚀检测监测技术

国内油田开发后期,原油集输管道含水率高,由内腐蚀导致管体腐蚀穿孔问题凸显,对于高含水原油集输管道,分析其内腐蚀影响因素,预测管体易腐蚀位置,采取有效的检测手段及具体监测方法解决。文中对高含水原油集输管道内腐蚀因素进行分析;建立典型管段模型进行FLUENT多相流模拟,得出水滴在弯头出口外侧及两颊处有沉积,为易腐蚀位置的结论。     

基于BP神经网络的油气管道风险分析评估方法

针对油气管道的风险评估主观性强的问题,提出了一种基于BP神经网络训练算法,应用BP神经网络算法对输油管道进行风险分析评估,得出其风险分析评估模型。仿真实验结果与半定量风险评价结果对比,误差率为0.009 6,证明该方法可用于油气管道的风险评估。     

基于遗传算法的天然气集输管网参数优化设计

以管道建设总费用为目标建立目标函数 ,以管道的稳态分析、各节点的流量、压力及管道压力限制等为约束条件 ,建立了天然气集输管网的参数优化设计模型。该模型属非线性离散化最优组合问题 ,采用遗传方法求解 ,并给出了计算机软件算法     

基于AIGA-WLSSVM的埋地管道腐蚀速率预测方法

为了降低埋地管道腐蚀影响因素之间的复杂相关性,提高腐蚀预测精度,文中提出一种基于自适应免疫遗传算法-加权最小二乘支持向量机(AIGA-WLSSVM)的埋地管道腐蚀速率预测建模方法,并采用AIGA优化模型参数,进一步提高模型的学习能力和稳定性。最后通过实例分析验证了AIGA-WLSSVM建模方法在埋地管道腐蚀速率预测中的可行性和有效性,为埋地管道的检修与更换提供参考。     

交通与土地利用一体化的主要内容与实现途径

本文在分析现代城市病产生原因的基础上,从交通的角度提出了解决现代城市病的对策思路。在此基础上,阐述了交通一体化的内容、交通与土地利用一体化的关键和实现途径。作者提出防止现代城市病的关键是混合土地使用、严格控制通勤圈半径和建立公交主导的绿色交通系统。     

铁路隧道防排水现状与思考

文章针对铁路隧道的防排水现状,指出了目前在防排水设计与施工中存在的问题和难点,并进行了具体分析,在防水类型的选择、地下水处理、衬砌外围结构防水、内衬砌防水等方面提出了铁路隧道防排水的措施和建议。     

Resilience and accessibility of Swedish and Dutch municipalities

Recent years have shown a rising popularity of the concept of resilience—both theoretically and empirically—in complex systems analysis. There is also a rising literature on resilience in the transport and spatial-economic field. The pluriform interpretation of resilience (e.g., engineering vs. ecological resilience) is related to methodological differences (e.g., stability in dynamics vs. evolutionary adaptivity). But in all cases the fundamental question is whether a complex system that is subjected to an external shock is able to recover, and if so, to which extent. The present paper [Based on presentation from cluster 6 (Accessibility) of the Nectar 2015 conference in Ann Arbour, USA.] aims to add a new dimension to resilience analysis in spatial systems, by addressing in particular the relationship between spatial accessibility at a municipality level and the resilience outcomes of the spatial system concerned. It does so by investigating to which extent accessibility of Swedish and Dutch municipalities has mitigated the local shock absorption from the recent economic recession. In our study the shock absorption capacity of municipal accessibility is estimated by analysing the relevant resilience indicators for the period concerned. In this context, conventional resilience indicators based on either multivariate complex data (in particular, the Foster Resilience Capacity Index) or employment data (in particular, the Martin Resilience-Employment Index) are confronted with spatial connectivity data based on local accessibility measures, so that geographical mobility may be regarded as one of the shock-mitigating factors. The empirical analysis is carried out for two countries which have both proven to be rather shock-resistant during the recent economic crisis, viz. Sweden and The Netherlands. Clearly, the geographical structure of these countries forms a sharp mutual contrast, viz. a spatially dispersed economy with a few distinct urban concentrations versus a spatially dense economy with one major metropolitan centre (the Randstad), respectively. Our experiments are carried out for the 290 municipalities in Sweden and 40 COROPs in The Netherlands. Our research findings show relevant and new insights into differences in the local recovery potential in Sweden and The Netherlands.     

材料节约与循环利用专项行动计划技术成果简介

当前,加快建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会已提升为国家战略。交通运输部为加快建设资源节约型、环境友好型交通,组织开展了“材料节约与循环利用专项行动计划”。通过专项行动大力推广路面再生技术、废胎胶粉筑路应用技术、机制砂混凝土技术以及聚合物改性水泥混凝土技术等西部交通建设科技项目成果,以为交通建设资源的高效利用和循环使用提供示范。本刊现以专栏形式介绍上述成果的相关内容,以飨读者。     

Modeling and analysis of mixed flow of cars and powered two wheelers

In modern cities, a rapid increase of motorcycles and other types of Powered Two-Wheelers (PTWs) is observed as an answer to long commuting in traffic jams and complex urban navigation. Such increasing penetration rate of PTWs creates mixed traffic flow conditions with unique characteristics that are not well understood at present. Our objective is to develop an analytical traffic flow model that reflects the mutual impacts of PTWs and Cars. Unlike cars, PTWs filter between cars, have unique dynamics, and do not respect lane discipline, therefore requiring a different modeling approach than traditional “Passenger Car Equivalent” or “Follow the Leader”. Instead, this work follows an approach that models the flow of PTWs similarly to a fluid in a porous medium, where PTWs “percolate” between cars depending on the gap between them.Our contributions are as follows: (I) a characterization of the distribution of the spacing between vehicles by the densities of PTWs and cars; (II) a definition of the equilibrium speed of each class as a function of the densities of PTWs and cars; (III) a mathematical analysis of the model’s properties (IV) an impact analysis of the gradual penetration of PTWs on cars and on heterogeneous traffic flow characteristics.The proposed model could contribute as an enabler for ‘PTW-aware’ future Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems technologies and traffic regulations.     

Characterisation of and reflections on the synergy of bicycles and public transport

The bicycle is often understood as a disjointed ‘feeder’ mode that provides access to public transport. We argue that combined use of the bicycle and public transport should be understood in a broader perspective, especially where bicycles link to higher speed and higher capacity public transport, such as the train. Cycling and public transport can have a symbiotic relationship forming a hybrid, distinct transport mode, which should be reflected in transport planning. The bicycle is as a way to soften the rigid nature of public transport and thus accommodate diverse individual travel needs and situations. Public transport can be seen as a means to dramatically extend cycling’s speed and spatial reach. We combine a system perspective with conceptual analysis to explore how, why and when this reconsideration is important. We use the Netherlands as illustrative case because of the relative maturity of its bicycle–train connections. The case shows that the synergy between rather opposite yet highly complementary aspects, high speed of the train, high accessibility of the bicycle and flexibility in combining both sub-modes, are the fundamental characteristics to understand the functioning of this system in a wider spatial context. In our conclusion we propose a research agenda, to further explore the relevance of this system for land-use and transport planning and distil wider implications for the international debate.     

集输管道效率监测及分析

为了更好地采用节能技术以不断降低管道能耗,提高管道效率,文中以集输管道为研究对象,根据集输管道效率计算模型,对11条输油管线进行了效率与能耗监测。监测结果表明:影响输油管道效率的主要因素是管道温降,其次为管道压降。对影响管道温降和压降的相关因素进行分析,提出了合理选择保温材料和保温结构、增加保温层厚度、添加减阻剂及采用管道内涂减阻技术等改进措施,对于集输管道的节能降耗具有借鉴意义。     

公交支付方式及其效率调查分析

智能系统的广泛使用,带来了移动支付的普及。公交支付在传统IC卡和现金支付的基础上,加入了云闪付和二维码支付。为探究移动支付对公交支付效率的影响,基于杭州市公交发展现状,制定了公交支付情况的调查方案。通过对所选10、93、97公交线路的早、晚高峰和平峰的三天实地调查,采集视频数据并使用SPSS进行定量统计分析,发现公交乘客刷卡占62%、二维码占27%、云闪付占6%、现金占5%。当乘客提前做好准备时,刷卡支付时间为1.29 s,低于云闪付的1.42 s和二维码的1.65 s,而未准备好时用时分别为6.74 s、10.94 s、8.54 s。通过相关性和多元线性回归分析得出"提前拿卡"、"上车掏卡"、"提前开二维码"和"上车开二维码"四种支付方式对公交停留时间延长的影响最大。     

油气管道的腐蚀与防护技术研究

国内大多数油田在开采过程中,油井伴生气通常含有成分不等的CO2、H2S等腐蚀性气体,同时由于油气集输系统也不可能完全密闭,造成大气中的O2等腐蚀性气体进入油气生产系统,因此油气生产系统存在的腐蚀类型多种多样。针对油气管道的腐蚀现状,简要综述了CO2腐蚀、H2S腐蚀、氧腐蚀机理及其影响因素。并在此基础上介绍了阴极保护技术、耐蚀材料防腐技术、工程防腐技术、化学防腐技术等几种国内外常用的防腐措施。