广西近海溢油扩散数值模拟

利用MIKE 21 HD模块模拟广西近海二维潮流特性,根据实测水文资料对广西近海二维水动力模型进行了验证。应用MIKE 21 OS溢油模块加载广西近海二维水动力数据,建立广西近海二维溢油扩散模型,对溢油事故进行影响预测。研究结果表明,风场、潮流场和溢油事故发生位置对溢油轨迹都有着重要影响。风场是油膜漂移方向的最大影响因素,在不同溢油事故发生位置的工况下,溢油的漂移轨迹和扫海范围可能完全不同。     

天津港某液体化工码头船舶污染影响模拟研究

本研究以潮流计算结果和风场资料分析结果为依据,采用溢油模型对海上溢油的扩散、漂移和岸线吸附等物化过程进行模拟,分析研究预测油膜的演变,预测油膜漂移轨迹和归宿。计算结果表明当南港港池口门位置处发生溢油事故后,油膜均会漂出南港口门外,在风的作用下会对周边环境一定范围内产生一定影响。     

Operational Oceanography System applied to the Prestige oil-spillage event

This contribution describes the procedure used during the Prestige oil-spillage event, by means of an Operational Oceanography System, and the behaviour of the present prediction tools (hydrodynamic and dispersion models) applied to it. The accuracy of these tools is estimated by a reanalysis of field data transmitted by a sea surface drifting buoy, released at the time of the oil spill. The numerical models applied were the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), fed by the available six-hourly NCEP atmospheric information, together with a Lagrangian Particle-Tracking Model (LPTM). ROMS has been used to estimate the current fields for the Bay of Biscay, whilst the LPTM has provided the oil spill trajectories. The results demonstrate that the accuracy of the numerical models depends upon the quality of the meteorological input data. In this case, the current fields at the sea surface, derived by ROMS, have been underestimated by the wind fields of the NCEP reanalysis data. An efficient calibration of these wind fields, with data provided by the Gascony buoy (fixed oceanic and atmospheric station), achieves more realistic looking results; this is reflected in the comparison between the buoy trajectory predicted numerically and the tracked movements of the drifting buoy.     

Investigation of model and parameter uncertainty in water quality models using a random walk method

A mathematical model to predict the effect of chemical spills in the Forth estuary in Scotland has been in use for many years. The model, based on the random walk method, predicts chemical concentrations in the estuary waters and estimates the elapsed time before the dilution is sufficient to render the spill harmless (making use of a toxicity measure such as the LC50 or a water quality standard). The model gives a deterministic result without any estimate of the uncertainty. Field studies using tracer dyes to measure the horizontal and vertical mixing rates in the estuary show that these rates vary over time. The literature on turbulent diffusion includes modelling applications using different parameterisations of the mixing process. This paper investigates the uncertainties in predicted concentrations due to model parameterisation of horizontal mixing and due to the variability in the measured mixing rates determined from surveys in the estuary. Estimates of the range of concentrations for a specific spill scenario are presented.The study shows that model formulation and parameter uncertainty are both important factors in estimating the uncertainty in model predictions. The uncertainty caused by the variations with time found in the measured mixing rates is found to be of similar magnitude to the differences in concentration resulting from using three different methods for modelling the horizontal mixing in the estuary. Uncertainties associated with model formulation could be reduced if a small number of longer timescale (e.g. 24 h) dispersion experiments were available. In addition, further data from short-term (3 h) dispersion experiments would give a better understanding of the distribution of mixing coefficients and how the mixing relates to other parameters such as tidal range and wind speed and direction.     

瓯江口航道海域溢油扩散数值模拟

首先建立了瓯江口海区平面二维潮流数学模型,根据现场实测资料对该数学模型进行验证.在此基础上对该海区的潮流场进行模拟,为溢油模型提供水动力基础数据,然后利用MIKE21 SA溢油模型对溢油泄露事故进行影响预测.研究结果表明,风的条件因素对油膜漂移轨迹的影响较大.在潮周期的不同阶段发生溢油事故时,溢油油膜漂移轨迹可能完全不...     

实时流场预报及在海面溢油轨迹预测中的应用

本文提出了舟山定普港域三维实时流场数值预报和调和预报方法,并在海面溢油轨迹预测应用实例中作了验证。结果表明,该方法能较准确地预报港域内流场的空间和时间分布,由预报流场驱动的溢油轨迹同实测结果一致,适合于在海上溢油事故等环境问题中使用。     

采用非概率方法对不同环境条件下的漂浮式风力机进行系泊损伤识别（英文）

This paper discusses the damage identification in the mooring line system of a floating wind turbine(FWT) exposed to various environmental loads. The proposed method incorporates a non-probabilistic method into artificial neural networks(ANNs). The non-probabilistic method is used to overcome the problem of uncertainties. For this purpose, the interval analysis method is used to calculate the lower and upper bounds of ANNs input data. This data contains some of the natural frequencies utilized to train two different ANNs and predict the output data which is the interval bounds of mooring line stiffness. Additionally, in order to reduce computational time and more importantly, identify damage in various conditions, the proposed method is trained using constant loads(CL) case(deterministic loads, including constant wind speed and airy wave model) and is tested using random loads(RL) case(including Kaimal wind model and JONSWAP wave theory). The superiority of this method is assessed by applying the deterministic method for damage identification. The results demonstrate that the proposed non-probabilistic method identifies the location and severity of damage more accurately compared to a deterministic one. This superiority is getting more remarkable as the difference in uncertainty levels between training and testing data is increasing.     

三峡库区溢油预报模型构建及数值模拟

随着三峡库区通航条件改善和船舶流量的不断增加,库区水上溢油风险形势日益严峻.综合考虑风、流的作用,结合水动力方程、溢油漂移扩散的“油粒子”模型等,设计了适用于三峡库区船舶溢油预报模型,并从应急的角度出发,对水动力模型进行并行化改造,提高了预报速度.在此基础上对175 m水位库区的假想溢油事故进行了模拟,初步检验了溢油预测模型的效果.     

Tracking control of underwater vehicle subject to uncertainties using fuzzy inverse desired trajectory compensation technique

Computed-torque controller plus fuzzy inverse desired trajectory compensation technique based on robust adaptive fuzzy observer is proposed to control underwater vehicle subject to uncertainties. A fuzzy inverse desired trajectory compensator is developed as a nonlinear filter at input trajectory level outside the control loop to address the issue of unavailable normalizing factor. A robust adaptive state observer with loose constraint on the position of the uncertainty function is proposed to evaluate the unavailable states. Numerical simulation results of regulation performance demonstrate that the observer solves the problem of strict constraint conditions on position uncertainties. Comparisons of tracking performance between the proposed control method and computed-torque controller are performed. The results confirm that compensation at the input trajectory offers better position tracking performance and easier practical implementation than other fuzzy compensation techniques at joint torque level. The proposed control approach is simulated and its efficiency is validated through the simulation of an underwater vehicle.     

溢油漂移轨迹回推技术在海事调查中的应用

海上油污染事故调查是海事监管的重要职责。近年来,屡有不明来源油污事件发生,溢油时间不明,调查难度大。基于大气、水动力模型和溢油模型的溢油漂移轨迹回推技术能够实现对不明来源油污的回推溯源,通过回推结果指导海事调查的方向,缩小排查范围,在实际应用中取得了良好的效果。     

Refined parameter and uncertainty estimation when both variables are subject to error. Case study: estimation of Si consumption and regeneration rates in a marine environment

The problem of estimating parameters and their uncertainty from experimental measurements in marine ecosystems is a common task and often necessitates solving nonlinear equations. If the measurements are subject to individually varying errors (i.e., heteroscedastic data), the parameters are often estimated using a Weighted Least Squares (WLS) method. For estimating the parameter uncertainties, a linearized expression for the covariance matrix exists. Yet, both methods assume that the errors on the independent variable, also called “input”, is negligible, which is often not true. For instance, in order to determine uptake and regeneration rates of silicic acid by phytoplankton, concentration and isotopic abundance measurements are performed at the beginning (input) and at the end (output) of an incubation experiment. Here, the so-called input and output are measurements of the same quantities, i.e., determined in exactly the same way, only differing by the time at which the measurements were performed. Clearly, there is no reason to assume that the input measurements are subject to less error than the output measurements. We propose a refinement of the two abovementioned estimation methods which enlarges their applicability to cases where input noise is not negligible. The refined methods are evaluated on the uptake and regeneration processes of silicic acid and compared to the original procedures using Monte-Carlo simulations. The results reveal a smaller bias for the refined WLS estimator compared with the original one. An additional advantage of using the refined WLS cost function is that its residual value can be interpreted as a sample from a χ² distribution. This property is especially useful because it enables an internal quality control of the results. In addition, the parameter uncertainty estimation is significantly improved. By neglecting the effect of the input noise, a (potentially) important origin of the parameter variation is simply ignored. Therefore, without the refinement, the parameter uncertainties are systematically underestimated. Using the refined method, this systematic error disappears and on the whole, the parameter standard deviations are accurately estimated.     

风场作用下趸船区域溢油动态模拟研究

以舟山定海港区某油库码头为背景建立了风场作用下的趸船区域溢油动态模型。针对趸船区域可能产生油品溢漏的位置,对趸船区域的溢油运动情况进行了模拟分析。模拟结果显示,当泄漏油品为柴油(850kg/m3,0.003825Pa·s)、泄漏点宽度为0.5m、油品泄漏速度为1m/s时,受风场作用,发生在趸船附近的溢油事故,其溢漏油品不仅随潮水运动流动,还会大量的在码头与岸线之间的区域及码头两端部附近产生积聚。在进行溢油事故快速控制和污油回收时,需要重点针对该区域进行监控防治。     

船舶航向非线性系统的自适应动态面控制

针对船舶航向控制非线性系统模型中存在的不确定性和外界干扰的影响,采用动态面控制算法设计了一种鲁棒自适应控制器.由于在反步法设计过程中加入了一阶低通滤波器使得该方法无需对模型非线性多次微分,因而设计方法简单.所设计的鲁棒自适应控制器不仅能保证闭环系统的半全局渐近稳定,使得输出渐近跟踪期望轨迹;而且,跟踪误差可以通过控制器的设计参数加以调整,同时该算法还能克服可能存在的控制器奇异值问题.数字仿真结果表明,控制系统对给定航向的跟踪具有良好的动态特性,对系统的不确定性,具有较强的鲁棒性.     

Survivability of an ocean patrol vessel – Analysis approach and uncertainty treatment

Military ocean patrol vessels (OPVs) are today an increasingly common type of naval ship. To facilitate the wide range of tasks with small crews, OPVs represent several ship design compromises between, for example, survivability, redundancy and technical endurance, and some of these compromises are new to military ships.The aim of this study is to examine how the design risk control-options in relation to survivability, redundancy and technical endurance can be linked to the operational risk in a patrol and surveillance scenario. The ship operation for a generic OPV, including the actions of the threat, is modelled with a Bayesian network describing the scenario and the dependency among different influences.The scenario is described with expert data collected from subject matter experts. The approach includes an analysis of uncertainty using Monte Carlo analysis and numerical derivative analysis.The results show that it is possible to link the performance of specific ship design features to the operational risk. Being able to propagate the epistemic uncertainties through the model is important to understand how the uncertainty in the input affects the output and the output uncertainty for the studied case is small relative to the input uncertainty. The study shows that linking different ship design features for aspects such as survivability, redundancy and technical endurance to the operational risk gives important information for the ship design decision-making process.     

Impact of forcing errors in the CAMCAT oil spill forecasting system. A sensitivity study

The CAMCAT oil spill forecasting system is presented in this paper, and an evaluation of the impact of errors in the forcing fields over its forecasts is carried out. The system is formed by several independent modules which provide forecasts of winds, currents and waves to an oil spill module which predicts the evolution of the spill.The typical twin-experiments experience is used paying special attention to a realistic characterization of the errors when perturbing the forcing fields. The results suggest that errors in the wind and current fields are the main limiting factor for the quality of the oil spill forecasts. The pollutant identification is also crucial to determine the final vertical position and characteristics of the product.     

Modeling oil spills in a river—lake system

A general model shell, ROSS3, is developed for simulating oil spills in complex river systems using techniques which have not been previously exploited in oil spill models. ROSS3's new approach has several advantages over the approach to model oil spills in the past: (a) The use of a time-varying boundary-fitted coordinate system that allows accurate accounting for complex river/lake boundary as well as the river boundary changes as its water levels fluctuate; (b) The ability to confine two-dimensional hydrodynamic computations to a limited river reach; (c) The ability to interactively layout the channel networks for setting up the model, define extra cross sections to increase the accuracy if needed, in addition to the traditional data entry and visualization interfaces.ROSS3 is a two-layer two-dimensional oip spill model that can simulate the mechanism of advection, horizontal diffusion, mechanical spreading, shoreline deposition, evaporation, dissolution, vertical mixing, resurfacing and sinking. In ROSS3 spilled oil may be a surface slick or suspended oil droplets, or a combination of both. Both free surface and ice cover conditions can be simulated. The flow of conditions can be varied and the unsteady flow model can be run within ROSS3 to simulate the flow conditions in both the river and the lake. The ice conditions can be added or removed from the model input using easy interactive procedures.     

基于ESO和动态逆的欠驱动船舶航迹跟踪控制设计

针对欠驱动船舶航迹跟踪控制问题,考虑船舶动态不确定性、未知时变外部扰动和速度不可测的情况,将输出重定义方法、扩张状态观测器(extended state observer, ESO)和动态逆控制方法相结合,设计欠驱动船舶航迹跟踪控制律。输出重定义方法用来解决系统欠驱动问题;构造ESO,估计由船舶动态不确定性、未知时变外部扰动以及船舶各自由度运动状态变量间的耦合构成的总扰动和船舶速度;基于上述,采用动态逆控制方法,设计航迹跟踪控制律,使欠驱动船舶跟踪期望航迹,并保证航迹跟踪闭环控制系统所有信号最终一致有界。以一艘欠驱动船舶为例进行仿真研究,仿真结果验证了所设计的航迹跟踪控制律的有效性和优越性。     

模糊综合评价法在船舶溢油事故定级中的应用

对船舶溢油事故定级很有必要.通过模糊数学的方法,建立船舶溢油事故定级的评判模型,为事故定级评判提供了依据.通过实例,给出了具体的评价过程,证明该方法对于船舶溢油事故定级有借鉴作用,但此方法尚处于研究阶段.     

油船溢油风险评价指标体系的构建及应用

分析油船溢油的主要原因,根据系统分析和层次分析相结合的原则建立油船溢油风险评价的多级评价指标体系,运用模糊数学中层次分析法结合对专家调查问卷的结果,综合分析给出油船溢油风险评价各指标的权重。将所建立的模型应用到实际油船,给出降低风险的措施。     

Changes in the design and operational wind due to climate change at the Indian offshore sites

The increasing global warming is most likely to affect the magnitude and pattern of wind at a regional level and such an effect may or not follow the trend predicted at the global scale. Regional level exercises are therefore necessary while making decisions related to engineering infrastructure. In this paper an attempt is made to know the extent of change in design as well as operational wind conditions at two offshore locations along the west coast of India. The design wind speeds with return periods of 10, 50 and 100 years derived for two 30-year time slices in the past and future are compared. In two separate exercises the past and future wind at the local level is simulated by empirical downscaling as well as by interpolation of the general circulation model (GCM) output. Both sets of past and future data are fitted to the Generalized Pareto as well as Weibull distributions using the peak over threshold method to extract long term wind speeds with a specified return. It is noticed that at the given locations the operational and design wind may undergo an increase of around 11%–14% when no downscaling is adopted and 14%–17% when the GCM data are downscaled. Although these figures may suffer from a certain level of statistical uncertainty the study points out to take a relook into the safety margins kept in the design and operation of ocean structures in the light of global warming.