On the effect of the ply stacking sequence on the failure of composite pipes under external pressure

The use of high performance structural composites has become very important over the last decades, especially where weight is an essential factor. Particularly in the oil and gas industry, several designs of composite pipes for deep water applications have been recently proposed as competitive solutions against traditional steel pipes. Thus, it is important to assess the performance of composite pipes under high external pressure in order to avoid pipe failure or overconservative designs. In this paper, experimental tests of different composite pipe configurations are performed and then compared to analytical and numerical predictions. Unlike the case of internal pressure loads, the collapse pressure of composite pipes depends on the initial ovality and on the ply stacking sequence. The collapse resistance of different composite pipes is firstly studied through simplified analytical equations combined with different failure criteria. Then, a finite element model is developed using a progressive failure criterion [1]. Both analytical and numerical failure predictions were compared to experimental tests carried out on four composite pipes produced with different ply stacking sequence by the filament winding method [2]. An experimental-numerical-analytical comparison shows that numerical and analytical models provide results in good agreement with those obtained experimentally. Finally, a parametric analysis is carried out to show the effect of ovality and ply stacking sequence on the failure pressure of composite pipes.     

Time-variant bulk carrier reliability analysis in pure bending intact and damage conditions

Time-variant reliability analysis of a corroded bulk carrier in intact and damage conditions is performed by First-Order (FORM), Second-Order (SORM) Reliability Methods and Importance Sampling simulation. Annual failure probabilities are determined up to 25-year ship lifetime, accounting for time-variant corrosion wastage of structural members contributing to hull girder strength. Statistical properties of hull girder capacity are determined by Monte Carlo simulation, applying three correlation models among corrosion wastages of structural members contributing to hull girder strength, namely no correlation, full correlation and full correlation among wastages of structural members belonging to the same category of compartments. A modified incremental-iterative method is applied, to account for instantaneous neutral axis rotation, in case of asymmetrical damage conditions, as for collision and grounding events. Incidence of intact/damage condition, as well as correlation among corrosion wastages, on annual sagging/hogging time-variant failure probability is investigated and discussed. Time-variant sensitivity analyses for intact and damage conditions are also performed, to investigate the incidence of random variables' uncertainties on the attained failure probability. Finally, the bulk carrier section scheme, benchmarked in the last ISSC Report, is applied as test case.     

Mechanical model and mechanical property analysis of fibre-reinforced hybrid composite pipes

Compared to conventional fibre-reinforced composite pipes, fibre-reinforced hybrid composite pipes are more complex and are characterised by the use of hybrid fibres, hybrid matrices, and multiple fibre winding angles. In this study, based on the mechanical model of conventional fibre-reinforced composite pipes, the cross-section division method, the radial pressure on the adjacent layer by spiral wound rope structures, and the calculation method of axial force in each layer were improved. Furthermore, the von Mises stresses in each layer were calculated to discriminate the failure to establish a mechanical model of fibre-reinforced hybrid composite pipes with any number of reinforced layers under axial tension, internal pressure, and external pressure. Experimental data and the finite element method (FEM) were used to verify the reliability of the established model, with the axial tensile mechanical properties analysed based on the established model. The results showed that the large-angle fibres no longer withstood the axial tensile load when the winding angle of the large-angle fibres was greater than 45°. The matrices yielding was much earlier than the fibre breakage. The matrices hybrid methods have a large influence on the axial tensile properties of fibre-reinforced hybrid composite pipes, and improving the material properties of the inner and outer liners can significantly improve the axial tensile properties of fibre-reinforced hybrid composite pipes.     

Experimental and theoretical studies on the lateral collapse of mechanically lined pipes

The mechanically lined pipe, which consists of a thin non-corrosive liner and a carbon steel pipe, is an economical way to transport acidic fluid in offshore applications. However, it is prone to lateral loading and potentially develops plastic collapse and liner separation during the operational stage. The present study examines its crushing performance using small-scale 2-inch lined pipes manufactured by a customized hydroforming facility. The lined pipes comprised a seamless GB45 carbon steel tube and a grade T2 copper liner. Four ring specimens extracted from lined pipes and two single-layer rings were crushed on a universal testing machine in a quasi-static manner. The tube was found to develop an ovalized shape initially and then changed into a "∞" shape in the end. The carrier and liner were found to stay together throughout the crushing process, with slight liner separation taking place. The manufacture and lateral collapse processes were also reproduced with finite element models and nonlinear analytical formulation. The analytical model was established based on the principle of virtual work and nonlinear ring theory, assuming small strain and finite rotation. It showed that the analytical and numerical simulation results agreed with the experimental results. The influence of major parameters of the problem was also studied based on the full-scale lined pipe. Amongst other findings, manufacture-related plastic hardening is shown to affect the load-carrying capacity and the growth of separation during lateral collapse.     

Reliability analysis of a bulk carrier in ultimate limit state under combined global and local loads in the hogging and alternate hold loading condition

The alternate hold still-water loading in hogging combined with wave loading is critical for the safe design of bulk carriers. The ultimate longitudinal strength of the hull girder of bulk carriers in this condition has been found to be considerably reduced by the action of local lateral pressure loads. In the present paper, an interaction equation based on the ultimate hull girder strength assessment obtained by nonlinear finite element analyses is adopted to consider the relationship between ultimate longitudinal bending capacity and average external sea pressure over the bottom. This interaction equation is used as the basis for the failure function. The annual probability of failure is obtained by FORM analysis considering two typical load cases, namely, pure longitudinal hogging bending moment and combined global hogging bending moment and local lateral pressure loads. The effect of heavy weather avoidance on the failure probability is evaluated. The results show that the local lateral pressure has a significant influence on the annual probability of failure of bulk carriers in the hogging and alternate hold loading condition.     

Finite element analyses of corroded pipeline with single defect subjected to internal pressure and axial compressive stress

This paper describes the application of finite element method (FEM) and the development of equations to predict the failure pressure of single corrosion affected pipes subjected to internal pressure and axial compressive stress. The finite element analysis (FEA) results were verified against full-scale burst tests and theoretical calculations. Material non-linearity, which allow for large strains and displacements, were considered. In addition, true UTS instead of engineering UTS was used to determine the point of failure. The pipes used in the FEA was modelled based on API 5L X52 modified steel with a length of 2000 mm, a nominal outer diameter of 300 mm, and a nominal wall thickness of 10 mm. The results obtained from FEA were compared to that of existing comprehensive corrosion assessment method, known as DNV-RP-F101. Six equations, utilizing the Buckingham's π theorem and multivariate non-linear regression techniques, were developed for predicting the failure pressure of corroded pipeline with single defect subjected to both internal pressure and axial compressive stress. These equations provide improved failure pressure predictions with good margins of errors (less than 10%).     

改进随机森林-蒙特卡罗法在A型液舱支座结构可靠性分析中的应用

[目的]随着液化天然气(LNG)船舶结构研究和设计深度的提高,需要有能够快速和准确地评估不确定性因素的可靠性分析方法。为此,提出基于改进随机森林-蒙特卡罗(RF-MC)法来解决A型独立液舱支座结构失效概率的计算问题。[方法]首先,根据不确定性因素的概率分布,使用MC法生成样本集;然后,以局部离群因子为准则,筛选出失效面附近的样本点,再对筛选出的样本点进行有限元计算后添加至训练集,通过重复训练随机森林近似模型,直至满足精度要求;最后,使用近似模型判别样本点是否失效,结合MC法计算结构的失效概率。[结果]综合考虑算法的准确率、复杂度和效率并结合算例1和2,可以发现在分析可靠性问题时改进RF-MC法比MC和BP-MC等方法具有更大优势。算例3的应用结果表明了改进RFMC法在A型独立液舱支座结构可靠性分析中的适用性。[结论]研究结果可为LNG船舶的优化设计提供可行的技术方案。     

Experimental investigation of the strength and stability of submarine pressure hulls with and without artificial corrosion damage

A submarine may have to operate for a period of time with local corrosion damage in the pressure hull if a suitable repair method is unavailable or too expensive for implementation. This paper describes collapse tests on twenty ring-stiffened aluminium cylinders, which were conducted to study the effect of corrosion damage on hull strength and stability. Artificial hull thinning was found to reduce the collapse strength of experimental models through high local stresses in the corroded region, leading to early onset of yielding and inelastic buckling. Bending associated with the eccentricity due to one-sided thinning was found to further increase the local stresses in the hull. Overall collapse pressures were more severely affected by corrosion damage than interframe collapse pressures. The percentage reduction in overall collapse pressure, compared with intact experimental models, was found to be closely related to the percentage depth of thinning. The accuracy of conventional collapse pressure predictions for the experimental models was significantly better for intact than for corroded cylinders.     

Symmetric and anti-symmetric buckle propagation modes in subsea corroded pipelines

Solutions for the steady-state buckle propagation modes and pressures in a corroded pipeline subjected to external hydrostatic pressure are presented. The buckle propagation pressure of a corroded pipeline is obtained analytically with a rigid-plastic analysis and numerically from finite element analysis (ABAQUS). Both the rigid-plastic analysis and ABAQUS program reveal symmetric and anti-symmetric buckling modes, depending on the depth and angular extent of the corrosion. Snap-through and global buckling of the pipeline are also distinguished in both solutions. The rigid-plastic solutions for buckle propagation pressure and corresponding collapse modes are found to be within 15% with numerical solutions.     

Buckle propagation of damaged SHCC sandwich pipes: Experimental tests and numerical simulation

Sandwich pipe (SP) combining high-strength performance and thermal insulation has been considered an effective solution for oil and gas transportation in ultra-deepwater. Strain hardening cementitious composite (SHCC) is well known for its capacity to withstand both tensile load and external hydrostatic pressure. The sandwich pipe considered in the research is constituted of concentric steel pipes with SHCC annular layer. In the present research work, the SHCC was manufactured, and full scale sandwich pipes were assembled. Intact and damaged specimens were submitted to controlled external pressure in a hyperbaric chamber to obtain the collapse and propagation pressures, respectively. Modeling and simulation of the buckle propagation of the SPs were correlated with the experimental results. The results show that sandwich pipe with SHCC core has an excellent structural strength under high external pressure in both intact and damaged conditions. Moreover, the results also show that the interaction between the annular and the inner/outer pipes provides a significant contribution to the buckling resistance under propagation pressure.     

Bi-fidelity Kriging model for reliability analysis of the ultimate strength of stiffened panels

A method based on a Bi-fidelity Kriging model is proposed for structural reliability analysis. It is based on adding low-fidelity data samples to the model to predict high-fidelity values, thus saving computational effort. Distance Correlation develops the correlation between the low and high-fidelity functions, initially proposed to assess the correlation between two variables. The bi-fidelity Kriging response surface model's efficiency as a surrogate model will be assessed for structural reliability problems that demand high computational costs, such as nonlinear finite element analysis structural models. The efficiency assessment is performed by comparing the accuracy of the failure probability predictions based on the Subset Simulation and First-order reliability method using the Bi-fidelity Kriging model as a surrogate for the performance function. The idea is illustrated by considering a representative component of marine structures analyzed by finite element analysis to create bi-fidelity scenarios to assess structural reliability with many variables. The results show that the proposed multi-fidelity method can provide an accurate failure probability estimation with less computational cost.     

On the collapse of thick-walled pipes with corrosion defects under external pressure

Corrosion defect is considered to be one of the major critical damages of subsea pipelines, which can result in a considerable loss in the collapse capacity of thick-walled pipes in deep waters. In this paper, collapse experiments on 13 small-scale seamless steel tubes with varying sizes of elliptical and rectangular corrosion defects were carried out in a sealed hyperbaric chamber. The collapse pressure and deformed configurations were obtained, with four types of collapse trajectories identified. A numerical framework was established to simulate the collapse event using ABAQUS, and decent consistency of the collapse pressure and collapsed configurations was observed between numerical and experimental results. Then, the collapse pressure of thick-walled pipes with a single elliptical corrosion defect was studied parametrically, covering different defect sizes, geometric characteristics, and material properties. Based on the extensive numerical analysis, a reasonable empirical formula was developed to estimate the collapse pressure of thick-walled steel pipes with various elliptical corrosion defects and material properties.     

Predictive analyses of the integrity of corroded pipelines based on concepts of structural reliability and Bayesian inference

In this paper, structural reliability concepts are used in conjunction with limit state functions proposed in the Recommended Practice DNV-RP-F101 (2010) to evaluate the probability of failure of corroded pipelines during their lifetimes. The model takes into account the natural spread of material properties, geometric and operational parameters, and the uncertainties associated with the sizing of eventual corrosion defects. Bayesian reliability concepts are used to estimate the evolution of a pre-defined distribution of defects obtained, for instance, from an inspection campaign. By comparing the predicted probability of failure with the reliability acceptance criteria, the operator can schedule defect repairs and establish inspection intervals with more confidence. This proposed methodology can provide the basis to develop a risk based maintenance strategy of pipeline systems.     

Efficient estimation of extreme non-linear roll motions using the first-order reliability method (FORM)

In on-board decision support systems, efficient procedures are needed for real-time estimation of the maximum ship responses to be expected within the next few hours, given online information on the sea state and user-defined ranges of possible headings and speeds. For linear responses, standard frequency domain methods can be applied. For non-linear responses, as exhibited by the roll motion, standard methods such as direct time domain simulations are not feasible due to the required computational time. However, the statistical distribution of non-linear ship responses can be estimated very accurately using the first-order reliability method (FORM), which is well known from structural reliability problems. To illustrate the proposed procedure, the roll motion was modelled by a simplified non-linear procedure taking into account non-linear hydrodynamic damping, time-varying restoring and wave excitation moments, and the heave acceleration. Resonance excitation, parametric roll, and forced roll were all included in the model, albeit with some simplifications. The result is the mean out-crossing rate of the roll angle together with the most probable wave scenarios (critical wave episodes), leading to user-specified specific maximum roll angles. The procedure is computationally very effective and can thus be applied to real-time determination of ship-specific combinations of heading and speed to be avoided in the actual sea state.     

随机导管架平台结构动力可靠性及灵敏度分析

基于Kriging模型和一次二阶矩方法对具有随机参数的导管架平台结构动力可靠度进行了分析.首先根据首次超越破坏准则建立了随机结构动力可靠度的隐式功能函数表达形式.然后通过有限元分析得到用于隐式功能函数近似的Kriging模型,进而求得可靠度指标.最后根据可靠度对随机参数均值和标准差的灵敏度公式,分析了导管架平台可靠度对各随机变量的敏感性,并得出了一些有益于工程设计、参数优化和精度控制的结论.     

FEM-based evaluation of friction and initial imperfections effects on sandwich pipes local buckling

Sandwich pipes have been studied as one option to overcome the high pressure problems in deep and ultra-deep waters. They have become a possible alternative solution for submarine infrastructure due to its thermal insulation capacity. This contribute to preventing the pipeline from clogging due to the difference in temperature between reservoir fluids and water at the bottom of the sea. The pipelines in ultra-deepwater are continually exposed to severe operating conditions, such as the effect of high levels of external pressure that can cause local deformation or even collapse of the pipe. Thus, a greater understanding of the mechanical behavior of sandwich pipes is required. This paper presents a FEM-based evaluation of friction and initial imperfection effects on sandwich pipes local buckling. The non-linear evaluation was carried out in FEM of local buckling of two sandwich pipes, with polypropylene and cement as filled annular material. The influence of initial imperfections and the degree of friction, between the annular material and the steel pipes, as well as geometric variations of the pipe were considered. The numerical simulations results indicate a capacity to withstand ultra-deep waters collapsing pressures, around 3000 m, either for polypropylene or cement filled annular material model. In addition, the results indicate that the collapse pressure is inversely proportional to the increase in annular thickness and directly proportional to the decrease in friction which have an impact and contribution on the carrying capacity of the sandwich pipe. Further research will consider a design of experiments analysis of reported effects for different diameter-to-thickness ratios.     

Strength reliability analysis of stiffened cylindrical shells considering failure correlation

The stiffened cylindrical shell is commonly used for thepressure hull of submersibles and the legs of offshore platforms.There are various failure modes because of uncertainty with thestructural size and material properties, uncertainty of the calculationmodel and machining errors. Correlations among failure modesmust be considered with the structural reliability of stiffenedcylindrical shells. However, the traditional method cannot considerthe correlations effectively. The aim of this study is to present amethod of reliability analysis for stiffened cylindrical shells whichconsiders the correlations among failure modes. Firstly, the jointfailure probability calculation formula of two related failure modesis derived through use of the 2D joint probability density function.Secondly, the full probability formula of the tandem structuralsystem is given with consideration to the correlations among failuremodes. At last, the accuracy of the system reliability calculation isverified through use of the Monte Carlo simulation. Result of theanalysis shows the failure probability of stiffened cylindrical shellscan be gained through adding the failure probability of each mode.     

考虑不确定性因素的路径优化(英文)

A route optimization methodology in the frame of an onboard decision support/guidance system for the ship’s master has been developed and is presented in this paper.The method aims at the minimization of the fuel voyage cost and the risks related to the ship’s seakeeping performance expected to be within acceptable limits of voyage duration.Parts of this methodology were implemented by interfacing alternative probability assessment methods,such as Monte Carlo,first order reliability method(FORM) and second order reliability method(SORM),and a 3-D seakeeping code,including a software tool for the calculation of the added resistance in waves of NTUA-SDL.The entire system was integrated within the probabilistic analysis software PROBAN.Two of the main modules for the calculation of added resistance and the probabilistic assessment for the considered seakeeping hazards with respect to exceedance levels of predefined threshold values are herein elaborated and validation studies proved their efficiency in view of their implementation into an on-board optimization system.     

大型结构系统可靠性分析方法研究

结构系统的可靠性评估是结构设计的一个重要研究内容,而极限状态函数的建立是进行可靠性评估的基础.但是,大型结构系统的极限状态函数极为复杂,响应面法用简单的多项式进行模拟的精度较低,导致误差较大.文章提出用神经网络替代多项式来拟合复杂的极限状态函数,形成所谓的神经网络响应面.然后,基于塑性极限理论,文中提出了不依赖于失效模式的极限状态函数表达形式及采用ICP对该极限状态函数进行计算的方法.最后,依照拟合得到的神经网络响应面,给出了大型结构系统失效概率的方法.通过两个算例计算并和其它方法进行比较,表明该方法的计算精度较高,而计算时间大大降低.     

纵向弯矩下材料随机特性对复合材料船体可靠性的影响

The effects of stochastic characteristics of materials on the reliability of ship hulls made of composite materials under longitudinal moment were extensively studied using reliability and sensitivity calculations of a composite ship hull which was sagging.The reliability indices and failure probabilities of the ship in three kinds of failure modes (buckling,material failure,and ultimate collapse) were calculated by the surface response method and JC method.The importance factors of random variables in stochastic models,such as the model errors in predicting the ultimate longitudinal strength of ship and the longitudinal bending moment that the ship withstands,as well as the stochastic characteristics of materials in the models used,were calculated.Then,the effects of these random variables,including the stochastic characteristics of materials on the reliability index and the failure probability of ships which were sagging,were discussed with their importance factors.The results show that the effects of stochastic characteristics of materials on the reliability of ship hulls made of composite materials should be considered during the reliability assessment of composite ships.Finally,some conclusions and recommendations were given for high-speed ship design and safety assessment.