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1.
All developed economies mandate at least third party auto insurance resulting inW a vast global liability industry. The evolution towards semi-autonomous and eventually driverless vehicles will progressively remove the leading cause of vehicle accidents, human error, and significantly lower vehicle accident rates. However, this transition will force a departure from existing actuarial methods requires careful management to ensure risks are correctly assigned. Personal motor insurance lines are anticipated to diminish as liability shifts towards OEMs, tier 1 and 2 suppliers and software developers. Vehicle accident risks will hinge on vehicular characteristics in addition to driver related risks as drivers alternate between autonomous and manual driving modes. This paper proposes a Bayesian Network statistical risk estimation approach that can accommodate changing risk levels and the emergence of new risk structures. We demonstrate the use of this method for a Level 3 semi-autonomous vehicle for two scenarios, one where the driver is in control and one where the vehicle is in control. This approach is especially suited to use telematics data generated from the vehicle inherent technologies. We validate the efficacy of this approach from the perspective of the insurer and discuss how vehicle technology development will require a greater degree of collaboration between the insurance company and the manufacturers in order to develop a greater understanding of the risks semi-autonomous and fully autonomous vehicles. 相似文献
2.
Matthew Barth Kanok Boriboonsomsin 《Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment》2009,14(6):400-410
Surface transportation consumes a vast quantity of fuel and accounts for about a third of the US CO2 emissions. In addition to the use of more fuel-efficient vehicles and carbon-neutral alternative fuels, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions can be lowered through a variety of strategies that reduce congestion, smooth traffic flow, and reduce excessive vehicle speeds. Eco-driving is one such strategy. It typically consists of changing a person’s driving behavior by providing general static advice to the driver (e.g. do not accelerate too quickly, reduce speeds, etc.). In this study, we investigate the concept of dynamic eco-driving, where advice is given in real-time to drivers changing traffic conditions in the vehicle’s vicinity. This dynamic strategy takes advantage of real-time traffic sensing and telematics, allowing for a traffic management system to monitor traffic speed, density, and flow, and then communicates advice in real-time back to the vehicles. By providing dynamic advice to drivers, approximately 10–20% in fuel savings and lower CO2 emissions are possible without a significant increase in travel time. Based on simulations, it was found that in general, higher percentage reductions in fuel consumption and CO2 emission occur during severe compared to less congested scenarios. Real-world experiments have also been carried out, showing similar reductions but to a slightly smaller degree. 相似文献
3.
In this paper, renewal costs for railway tracks are investigated using survival analysis. The purpose is to derive the effect from increased traffic volumes on rail renewal cycle lengths and to calculate associated marginal costs. A flow sample of censored data containing almost 1300 observations on the Swedish main railway network is used. We specify Weibull regression models, and estimate deterioration elasticities for total tonnage as well as for passenger and freight tonnages separately. Marginal costs are calculated as a change in present values of renewal costs from premature renewal following increased traffic volumes. The marginal cost for total tonnage is estimated to approximately SEK 0.002 per gross ton kilometre. 相似文献
4.
The combined impact of ownership form, economic regulation and competition on airport performance is analyzed using data envelopment analysis to measure cost efficiency in the first stage and regression analysis to measure the impact of the environment in the second stage. The empirical results of an analysis of European and Australian airports over a 10 year timeframe reveal that under relatively non-competitive conditions, public airports operate less cost efficiently than fully private airports. Irrespective of ownership form, regulation is necessary to emulate competitive forces thus pushing airport management towards cost efficiency and reasonable pricing policies. Under potential regional or hub competition, economic regulation inhibits airports of any ownership form from operating and pricing efficiently. Although public and fully private airports operate equally efficiently in a competitive setting, private airports still set higher aeronautical charges. Furthermore, mixed ownership forms with a majority public holding are neither cost efficient nor low price, irrespective of the level of competition. 相似文献
5.
Supply chain risk measurement is an expanding research stream that considers the ability of networked firms to anticipate and respond to significant environmental risks, including major disruptions and unexpected events. However measuring and quantifying supply chain risk has proved an enormous challenge and this research contributes to this goal by developing a risk assessment scorecard, using conjoint analysis, for motor carrier firms. The resultant motor-carrier scorecard has been scaled from 300 to 900, to resemble the well-known FICO score for assessing consumer creditworthiness. Our scoring model enables motor carriers – and the firms that depend upon them in intermodal supply chains – to assess carriers’ ability to withstand major disruptive events, which are broadly defined as events which might lead to a significant drop in carriers’ income and profitability (e.g., such as that which occurred on September 11, 2001). Carriers with weaker risk scores (<600, on a 300–900 scale) are more likely to experience financial distress (and as a result possibly exit the industry itself); those with scores above 600 are less likely to depart. The model correctly identified 77 percent of motor carriers that ultimately exited the trucking industry following the significant environmental disruption caused by 9/11. Our computational experience indicates that the model accuracy, quantified in terms of Type I and Type II errors, compares favorably to prior results reported in the credit scoring literature. 相似文献
6.
Phone use during driving causes decrease in situation awareness and delays response to the events happening in driving environment which may lead to accidents. Reaction time is one of the most suitable parameters to measure the effect of distraction on event detection performance. Therefore, this paper reports the results of a simulator study which analysed and modelled the effects of mobile phone distraction upon reaction time of the Indian drivers belonging to three different age groups. Two different types of hazardous events: (1) pedestrian crossing event and (2) road crossing event by parked vehicles were included for measuring drivers’ reaction times. Four types of mobile phone distraction tasks: simple conversation, complex conversation, simple texting and complex texting were included in the experiment. Two Weibull AFT (Accelerated Failure Time) models were developed for the reaction times against both the events separately, by taking all the phone use conditions and various other factors (such as age, gender, and phone use habits during driving) as explanatory variables. The developed models showed that in case of pedestrian crossing event, the phone use tasks: simple conversation, complex conversation, simple texting and complex texting caused 40%, 95%, 137% and 204% increment in the reaction times and in case of road crossing event by parked vehicles, the tasks caused 48%, 65%, 121% and 171% increment in reaction times respectively. Thus all the phone use conditions proved to be the most significant factors in degrading the driving performance. 相似文献
7.
We consider a two-stage stochastic extension of the bilevel pricing model introduced by Labbé et al. (1998). In the first stage, the leader sets tariffs on a subset of arcs of a transportation network, with the aim of maximizing profits while, at the lower level, flows are assigned to cheapest paths of a multicommodity transportation network. In the second stage, the situation repeats itself under the constraint that tariffs should not differ too widely from those set at the first stage, a condition that frequently arises in practice. We analyze properties of the model, provide numerical illustrations, and open avenues for further research into this area. 相似文献
8.
Stef Proost Fay DunkerleyBruno De Borger Astrid GühnemanPia Koskenoja Peter MackieSaskia Van der Loo 《Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice》2011,45(3):161-170
The trans-European transport network (TEN-T) encompasses the major planned transport infrastructure in Europe, ranging from high speed rail to port infrastructure. Projects in this category are considered priority projects and receive European subsidies; but these have been insufficient to get these projects off the ground. This paper addresses two research questions. First, it sketches the basic economics of cross-boundary infrastructure projects: what pricing and investment policies can we expect, what is the role of through traffic and high fixed costs of infrastructure? Second, it examines briefly what lessons the EU could draw from the experience of other existing federal funding institutions like the US and Germany. These ideas are used to propose a new subsidy scheme for the TEN-T projects. 相似文献
9.
In this paper, we consider repeated routing games with piecewise-constant congestion taxing in which a central planner sets and announces the congestion taxes for fixed windows of time in advance. Specifically, congestion taxes are calculated using marginal congestion pricing based on the flow of the vehicles on each road prior to the beginning of the taxing window (and, hence, there is a time-varying delay in setting the congestion taxes). We motivate the piecewise-constant taxing policy by that users or drivers may dislike fast-changing prices and that they also prefer prior knowledge of the prices. We prove for this model that the multiplicative update rule and the discretized replicator dynamics converge to a socially optimal flow when using vanishing step sizes. Considering that the algorithm cannot adapt itself to a changing environment when using vanishing step sizes, we propose adopting constant step sizes in this case. Then, however, we can only prove the convergence of the dynamics to a neighborhood of the socially optimal flow (with the size of the neighbourhood being of the order of the selected step size). The results are illustrated on a nonlinear version of Pigou’s famous routing game. 相似文献
10.
As electric vehicles (EVs) become more readily available, sales will depend on consumers’ interest and understanding. A survey of consumer attitudes on electric cars was conducted in Manitoba from late 2011 to early 2012. It utilizes two price assessment methods. The van Westendorp price sensitivity method (PSM) shows the acceptable price range for EVs to be $22,000–27,500. This range closely matches average price range for sales of conventional cars during the same period. The willingness-to-pay method reveals consumers are unwilling to pay large premiums for EVs, even when given information on future fuel savings. A consumer group with experience or exposure to EVs is somewhat different. Nearly 25% of these people are willing to pay a premium of up to $10,000. Different interpretations can be drawn from these responses, calling for further research. An apparent policy opportunity involves consumer education to enhance knowledge and facilitate EV purchase decisions. Survey results also support the hypothesis that EV rollout has focused too much on technology, and not enough on consumers. 相似文献
11.
Post-entry container port capacity expansion 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Port capacity development is a critical strategy for the growth of a new port, as well as for the development of existing ones, when both new and existing ports serve the same hinterland but have different competitive conditions. To study this strategy, we develop a two-stage duopoly model that comprises the pricing and capacity decisions of two heterogeneous players serving an increasing market. We identify the necessary condition for a port to increase its profit through capacity expansion, and characterize the condition when preemptive pricing by the dominant player is neither credible nor effective in preventing the smaller player from gaining market share. We also find the pure-strategy Nash equilibrium in the capacity expansion game for two ports that have different price sensitivities, as well as different operation and capacity investment costs. We apply the model results to the container port competition between Hong Kong and Shenzhen after Shenzhen port started its container operation in 1991. Our analysis explains the transition of market power from monopoly to duopoly, the fast development of Shenzhen Port, and the possible market structure changes with the continuing increase in demand. 相似文献
12.
This note demonstrates how the redistribution of revenue from a Pigouvian policy can distort incentives and handicap the social objectives of the policy by creating a moral hazard problem. Based on the Levinson (2005) game theory model, I develop a three-player bottleneck congestion game that emulates a repeated prisoner’s dilemma and derive efficient tolls. This conceptual game demonstrates the distortionary effects from a revenue-neutral toll policy with lump-sum revenue redistribution and the equity-efficiency tradeoff. 相似文献
13.
Enhancing the safety level of urban roads especially in CBDs is paramount. Due to a large number of intersections in what is usually a grid road system in the CBDs, we investigate crashes occurring in and around an intersection. The question of interest in this study is: does the nature of crashes at intersections differ from those of the roads at midblock? Stated more precisely, considering the intersection as a reference point, does the distance to the reference point (i.e. midblock locations on the roads) correlate with different types of crashes compared to that of the intersection? A right answer can lead traffic engineers and safety auditors to propose different safety measures at intersections and the midblock locations. As a pilot study, we collected the last 9 years crash data of the CBD of Melbourne, Australia. For the first time, we employ Survival Analysis models -including Exponential, Weibull, and Log-logistic- to investigate a space-dependent phenomenon (i.e. accidents at proximity to the intersection). Of the outcome, highlights are: (i) police presence at busy intersections during busy night outs and weekends highly improves the pedestrian safety (ii) raised crossings at midblock locations lower likelihood of crashes of pedestrians as well as cars, (iii) lighting conditions at intersections must be watched and kept at a high level. (iv) Severity, likelihood, and location have no known association with the level of congestion. In other words, safety is first, always and everywhere. The results can be of interest to traffic authorities and policy makers in reinforcing traffic calming measures in the cities. The codes developed in this study are made available to the research community to be used in further studies. 相似文献
14.
This paper investigates transport providers’ preferences for alternative loading bays and pricing policies. It estimates the importance of loading bays, the probability of finding them free and offers strategically relevant information to policy makers. The results underline the relevance of both preference heterogeneity and non-linear attribute effects. Three classes of agents are detected with substantially different preferences also characterized by non-linear sensitivity to attribute level variations. The specific freight sector, frequency of accesses and number of employees are all relevant covariates explaining different preferences for alternative transport providers’ categories. The implications of the results obtained are illustrated by simulating alternative policy scenarios. In conclusion, the paper underlines the need for rigorous policy analysis if the correct policy outcomes are to be estimated with an adequate level of accuracy. 相似文献
15.
Build to order (BTO) is a supply chain disruption mitigation strategy. Whereas cost minimization is an operational objective, the goal of the BTO manufacturer is to maximize its profit by using pricing as its competitive decision-making strategy. In this paper, we study a BTO manufacturer who simultaneously determines its product prices and designs its supply chain network to maximize its expected profit under price-dependent stochastic demand. We propose an L-shaped decomposition with complete enumeration to solve for optimality and show that the expanded master problem remains convex programming, although the optimality cuts are quadratic inequalities. The computational results demonstrate that stocking up on differentiated components and allocating modules appropriately to meet realized demand is a resilient policy that sustains variations in demand. Furthermore, the pricing decision balances the expected revenue and expected operating cost with an increase in expected profit. The integration of pricing and operational planning results in a higher expected profit than by individual decisions. We also demonstrate that cost minimization may not provide the same level of profit if the manufacturer overestimates or underestimates its most profitable demand. 相似文献
16.
Estimation of congestion costs, presumed to be one of the largest external costs of automobile travel, is typically based on a single value of time delay for motorists in metropolitan areas. However, the estimation may be wrong if the profiles of motorists are different at different times of day. This study uses a survival model to examine the demographic and socioeconomic profiles of motorists at different times of day at congested locations in southern California, by using on-road remote-sensing measurements and license plates images obtained in 2007 and 2008 by the California South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD). More than 80,000 vehicles were observed from fifteen selected study sites over fifteen days. Their plates, through anonymized registration records, revealed addresses at the census block group level, which have homogenous profiles by construction. Motorists’ profiles at different times of day display large variation, however, according to extended Cox model with a non-parametric baseline hazard, which is used to accommodate both the time-invariant and time-varying effects of the covariates. This study thus proposes a new approach to examine heterogeneity among motorists. 相似文献
17.
Di WuYafeng Yin Siriphong Lawphongpanich 《Transportation Research Part B: Methodological》2011,45(10):1699-1709
This paper considers the problem of how to select highway projects for the build-operate-transfer (BOT) development with the objective of improving the social benefit while ensuring the marketability of those selected. The problem can be viewed as a tri-level leader-follower game and is formulated as a mixed integer program with equilibrium constraints. Without solving the associated problem, we show that optimal tolls and travel times on selected BOT highways can be determined from their attributes under mild assumptions. This leads to an efficient heuristic algorithm for solving the project selection problem. 相似文献
18.
Jacques Lonardi Michael Baumgartner 《Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment》2004,9(6):766
Road freight transport continues to grow in Germany and generates 6% of the country’s CO2 emissions. In logistics, many decisions influence the energy efficiency of trucks, but causalities are not well understood. Little work has been done on quantifying the potential for further CO2 reduction and the effect of specific activities, such as introducing computer assisted scheduling systems to trucking firms. A survey was survey out and linked fuel consumption to transport performance parameters in 50 German haulage companies during 2003. Emission efficiency ranged from 0.8 tonne-km to 26 tonne-km for 1 kg CO2 emissions. The results show potential for improvements given a low level of vehicle usage and load factor levels, scarce use of lightweight vehicle design, poorly selected vehicles and a high proportion of empty runs. IT-based scheduling systems with telematic application for data communication, positioning and navigation show positive effects on efficiency. Fuel use and transport performance was measured before and after the introduction of these systems. 相似文献
19.
We consider a public and congested airport served by airlines that may have market power, and two types of travelers with different relative values of time. We find that in the absence of passenger-type-based price discrimination by airlines, it can be useful to increase the airport charge so as to protect passengers with a great relative time value from excessive congestion caused by passengers with a low relative time value. As a result, the socially efficient airport charge can be substantially higher than what we learned from the recent literature on congestion pricing with non-atomistic airlines. 相似文献
20.
Benoit Crevier Jean-François Cordeau Gilles Savard 《Transportation Research Part B: Methodological》2012,46(1):100-119
In the rail industry, profit maximization relies heavily on the integration of logistics activities with an improved management of revenues. The operational policies chosen by the carrier have an important impact on the network yield and thus on global profitability. This paper bridges the gap between railroad operations planning and revenue management. We propose a new bilevel mathematical formulation which encompasses pricing decisions and network planning policies such as car blocking and routing as well as train make-up and scheduling. An exact solution approach based on a mixed integer formulation adapted to the problem structure is presented, and computational results are reported on randomly generated instances. 相似文献