Macroscopic multiple-station short-turning model in case of complete railway blockages

In case of railway disruptions, traffic controllers are responsible for dealing with disrupted traffic and reduce the negative impact for the rest of the network. In case of a complete blockage when no train can use an entire track, a common practice is to short-turn trains. Trains approaching the blockage cannot proceed according to their original plans and have to short-turn at a station close to the disruption on both sides. This paper presents a Mixed Integer Linear Program that computes the optimal station and times for short-turning the affected train services during the three phases of a disruption. The proposed solution approach takes into account the interaction of the traffic between both sides of the blockage before and after the disruption. The model is applied to a busy corridor of the Dutch railway network. The computation time meets the real-time solution requirement. The case study gives insight into the importance of the disruption period in computing the optimal solution. It is concluded that different optimal short-turning solutions may exist depending on the start time of the disruption and the disruption length. For periodic timetables, the optimal short-turning choices repeat due to the periodicity of the timetable. In addition, it is observed that a minor extension of the disruption length may result in less delay propagation at the cost of more cancellations.     

A delay root cause discovery and timetable adjustment model for enhancing the punctuality of railway services

Knock-on delay, which is the key factor in punctuality of railway service, is mainly related to two factors including the quality of timetable in the planning phase and disturbances which may result in unscheduled trains’ waiting or meeting in operation phase. If the delay root cause and the interactions among the factors responsible for these can be clearly clarified, then the punctuality of railway operations can be enhanced by taking reactions such as timetable adjustment, rescheduling or rerouting of railway traffic in case of disturbances. These delay reasons can be used to predict the lengths of railway disruptions and effective reactions can be applied in disruption management. In this work, a delay root cause discovery model is proposed, which integrates heterogeneous railway operation data sources to reconstruct the details of the railway operations. A supervised decision tree method following the machine learning and data mining techniques is designed to estimate the key factors in knock-on delays. It discovers the root cause delay factor by logically analyzing the scheduled or un-scheduled trains meetings and overtaking behaviors, and the subsequent delay propagations. Experiment results show that the proposed decision tree can predict the delay reason with the accuracy of 83%, and it can be further enhance to 90% if the delay cause is only considered “prolonged passengers boarding” and “meeting or overtaking” factors. The delay root cause can be discovered by the proposed model, verified by frequency filtering in operation records, and resolved by the adjustment of timetable which is an important reference for the next timetable rescheduling. The results of this study can be applied to railway operation decision support and disruption management, especially with regard to timetable rescheduling, trains resequencing or rerouting, system reliability analysis, and service quality improvements.     

The multi-objective railway timetable rescheduling problem

Unexpected disruptions occur for many reasons in railway networks and cause delays, cancelations, and, eventually, passenger inconvenience. This research focuses on the railway timetable rescheduling problem from a macroscopic point of view in case of large disruptions. The originality of our approach is to integrate three objectives to generate a disposition timetable: the passenger satisfaction, the operational costs and the deviation from the undisrupted timetable. We formulate the problem as an Integer Linear Program that optimizes the first objective and includes $\epsilon$-constraints for the two other ones. By solving the problem for different values of $\epsilon$, the three-dimensional Pareto frontier can be explored to understand the trade-offs among the three objectives. The model includes measures such as canceling, delaying or rerouting the trains of the undisrupted timetable, as well as scheduling emergency trains. Furthermore, passenger flows are adapted dynamically to the new timetable. Computational experiments are performed on a realistic case study based on a heavily used part of the Dutch railway network. The model is able to find optimal solutions in reasonable computational times. The results provide evidence that adopting a demand-oriented approach for the management of disruptions not only is possible, but may lead to significant improvement in passenger satisfaction, associated with a low operational cost of the disposition timetable.     

Location planning for transit-based evacuation under the risk of service disruptions

The effectiveness of transit-based emergency evacuation highly depends on the location of pick-up facilities, resource allocation, and management. These facilities themselves are often subject to service disruptions during or after the emergency. This paper proposes a reliable emergency facility location model that determines both pre-emergency facility location planning and the evacuation operations afterwards, while facilities are subject to the risk of disruptions. We analyze how evacuation resource availability leverages individual evacuees’ response to service disruptions, and show how equilibrium of the evacuee arrival process could be reached at a functioning pick-up facility. Based on this equilibrium, an optimal resource allocation strategy is found to balance the tradeoff between the evacuees’ risks and the evacuation agency’s operation costs. This leads to the development of a compact polynomial-size linear integer programming formulation that minimizes the total expected system cost from both pre-emergency planning (e.g., facility set-up) and the evacuation operations (e.g., fleet management, transportation, and exposure to hazardous surroundings) across an exponential number of possible disruption scenarios. We also show how the model can be flexibly used to plan not only pre-disaster evacuation but also post-disaster rescue actions. Numerical experiments and an empirical case study for three coastal cities in the State of Mississippi (Biloxi, Gulfport, and D’lberville) are conducted to study the performance of the proposed models and to draw managerial insights.     

基于灰色模型及月度比例系数法的铁路客流预测方法

文章针对铁路客流变化的影响因素及特点,提出了基于灰色模型及月度比例系数法的铁路客流预测方法,并通过实例分析,证明了该方法预测误差小、精度高、计算简便、可操作性强,可为铁路车站客运计划的制定及日常客运工作组织提供准确、可靠的数据。     

Passenger Perspectives in Railway Timetabling: A Literature Review

When looking at railway planning, a discrepancy exists between planners who focus on the train operations and publish fixed railway schedules, and passengers who look not only at the schedules but also at the entirety of their trip, from access to waiting to on-board travel and egress. Looking into this discrepancy is essential, as assessing railway performances by merely measuring train punctuality would provide an unfair picture of the level of service experienced by passengers. Firstly, passengers’ delays are often significantly larger than the train delays responsible for the passengers to be late. Secondly, trains’ punctuality is often strictly related to too tight schedules that in turn might translate into knock-on delays for longer dwelling times at stations, trip delays for increased risk of missing transfer connections, and uncertain assessment of the level of service experienced, especially with fluctuating passenger demand. A key aspect is the robustness of railway timetables. Empirical evidence indicates that passengers give more importance to travel time certainty than travel time reductions, as passengers associate an inherent disutility with travel time uncertainty. This disutility may be broadly interpreted as an anxiety cost for the need for having contingency plans in case of disruptions, and may be looked at as the motivator for the need for delay-robust railway timetables. Interestingly, passenger-oriented optimisation studies considering robustness in railway planning typically limit their emphasis on passengers to the consideration of transfer maintenance. Clearly, passengers’ travel behaviour is far more complex and multi-faceted and thus several other aspects should be considered, as becoming more and more evident from passenger surveys. The current literature review starts by looking at the parameters that railway optimisation/planning studies are focused on and the key performance indicators that impact railway planning. The attention then turns to the parameters influencing passengers’ perceptions and travel experiences. Finally, the review proposes guidelines on how to reduce the gap between the operators’ railway planning and performance measurement on the one hand and the passengers’ perception of the railway performance on the other hand. Thereby, the conclusions create a foundation for a more passenger-oriented railway timetabling ensuring that passengers are provided with the best service possible with the resources available.     

Distributed model predictive control for railway traffic management

Every day small delays occur in almost all railway networks. Such small delays are often called “disturbances” in literature. In order to deal with disturbances dispatchers reschedule and reroute trains, or break connections. We call this the railway management problem. In this paper we describe how the railway management problem can be solved using centralized model predictive control (MPC) and we propose several distributed model predictive control (DMPC) methods to solve the railway management problem for entire (national) railway networks. Furthermore, we propose an optimization method to determine a good partitioning of the network in an arbitrary number of sub-networks that is used for the DMPC methods. The DMPC methods are extensively tested in a case study using a model of the Dutch railway network and the trains of the Nederlandse Spoorwegen. From the case study it is clear that the DMPC methods can solve the railway traffic management problem, with the same reduction in delays, much faster than the centralized MPC method.     

Closing the loop in real-time railway control: Framework design and impacts on operations

Railway traffic is heavily affected by disturbances and/or disruptions, which are often cause of delays and low performance of train services. The impact and the propagation of such delays can be mitigated by relying on automatic tools for rescheduling traffic in real-time. These tools predict future track conflict based on current train information and provide suitable control measures (e.g. reordering, retiming and/or rerouting) by using advanced mathematical models. A growing literature is available on these tools, but their effects on real operations are blurry and not yet well known, due to the very scarce implementation of such systems in practice.In this paper we widen the knowledge on how automatic real-time rescheduling tools can influence train performance when interfaced with railway operations. To this purpose we build up a novel traffic control framework that couples the state-of-the art automatic rescheduling tool ROMA, with the realistic railway traffic simulation environment EGTRAIN, used as a surrogate of the real field. At regular times ROMA is fed with current traffic information measured from the field (i.e. EGTRAIN) in order to predict possible conflicts and compute (sub) optimal control measures that minimize the max consecutive delay on the network. We test the impact of the traffic control framework based on different types of interaction (i.e. open loop, multiple open loop, closed loop) between the rescheduling tool and the simulation environment as well as different combinations of parameter values (such as the rescheduling interval and prediction horizon). The influence of different traffic prediction models (assuming e.g. aggressive versus conservative driving behaviour) is also investigated together with the effects on traffic due to control delays of the dispatcher in implementing the control measures computed by the rescheduling tool.Results obtained for the Dutch railway corridor Utrecht–Den Bosch show that a closed loop interaction outperforms both the multiple open loop and the open loop approaches, especially with large control delays and limited information on train entrance delays and dwell times. A slow rescheduling frequency and a large prediction horizon improve the quality of the control measure. A limited control delay and a conservative prediction of train speed help filtering out uncertain traffic dynamics thereby increasing the effectiveness of the implemented measures.     

Designing a supply chain resilient to major disruptions and supply/demand interruptions

Global supply chains are more than ever under threat of major disruptions caused by devastating natural and man-made disasters as well as recurrent interruptions caused by variations in supply and demand. This paper presents a hybrid robust-stochastic optimization model and a Lagrangian relaxation solution method for designing a supply chain resilient to (1) supply/demand interruptions and (2) facility disruptions whose risk of occurrence and magnitude of impact can be mitigated through fortification investments. We study a realistic problem where a disruption can cause either a complete facility shutdown or a reduced supply capacity. The probability of disruption occurrence is expressed as a function of facility fortification investment for hedging against potential disruptions in the presence of certain budgetary constraints. Computational experiments and thorough sensitivity analyses are completed using some of the existing widely-used datasets. The performance of the proposed model is also examined using a Monte Carlo simulation method. To explore the practical application of the proposed model and methodology, a real world case example is discussed which addresses mitigating the risk of facility fires in an actual oil production company. Our analysis and investigation focuses on exploring the extent to which supply chain design decisions are influenced by factors such as facility fortification strategies, a decision maker's conservatism degree, demand fluctuations, supply capacity variations, and budgetary constraints.     

Including passengers’ response to crowding in the Dutch national train passenger assignment model

Transit passengers’ response to crowded conditions has been studied empirically, yet is limitedly included in transport models currently used in the design of policy and infrastructure investments. This has consequences for the practical applicability of these models in studies on, for instance, timetabling, train capacity management strategies, project appraisal, and passenger satisfaction. Here we propose four methods to include the effect of crowding, based on existing studies on passengers’ perception and response as well as often-used crowding indicators. These four alternative methods are implemented in the train passenger assignment procedure of the Dutch national transport model, and evaluated with respect to their impacts on the model results for the Dutch railway network. The four methods relate to four different ways in which an additive trip penalty and/or time-multiplier can be incorporated in the train utility function for different travel purposes, to capture the disutility of crowding as measured by the load factor. The analyses of the test case favor the hybrid method using both a boarding penalty (capturing seat availability upon boarding) and a time-multiplier (capturing physical comfort and safety throughout the trip). This method produces consistent results, while the additional computational effort that it imposes is acceptable. Further empirical underpinning is needed to conclusively show which of these methods best captures passengers’ response behavior quantitatively (for different travel purposes and conditions).     

Reliable logistics networks design with facility disruptions

This paper studies a strategic supply chain management problem to design reliable networks that perform as well as possible under normal conditions, while also performing relatively well when disruptions strike. We present a mixed-integer programming model whose objective is to minimize the nominal cost (the cost when no disruptions occur) while reducing the disruption risk using the p-robustness criterion (which bounds the cost in disruption scenarios). We propose a hybrid metaheuristic algorithm that is based on genetic algorithms, local improvement, and the shortest augmenting path method. Numerical tests show that the heuristic greatly outperforms CPLEX in terms of solution speed, while still delivering excellent solution quality. We demonstrate the tradeoff between the nominal cost and system reliability, showing that substantial improvements in reliability are often possible with minimal increases in cost. We also show that our model produces solutions that are less conservative than those generated by common robustness measures.     

Multi-level condition-based maintenance planning for railway infrastructures – A scenario-based chance-constrained approach

This paper develops a multi-level decision making approach for the optimal planning of maintenance operations of railway infrastructures, which are composed of multiple components divided into basic units for maintenance. Scenario-based chance-constrained Model Predictive Control (MPC) is used at the high level to determine an optimal long-term component-wise intervention plan for a railway infrastructure, and the Time Instant Optimization (TIO) approach is applied to transform the MPC optimization problem with both continuous and integer decision variables into a nonlinear continuous optimization problem. The middle-level problem determines the allocation of time slots for the maintenance interventions suggested at the high level to optimize the trade-off between traffic disruption and the setup cost of maintenance slots. Based on the high-level intervention plan, the low-level problem determines the optimal clustering of the basic units to be treated by a maintenance agent, subject to the time limit imposed by the maintenance slots. The proposed approach is applied to the optimal treatment of squats, with real data from the Eindhoven-Weert line in the Dutch railway network.     

基于指定到达追踪间隔的高铁车站接车进路长度研究

确定合理的高铁车站接车进路长度对压缩到达追踪间隔时间有重要意义。本文首先通过构建满足到达追踪间隔时间的高铁车站接车进路长度计算模型,提出了接车进路长度的主要影响因素为由线路限制速度、站前坡坡度、制动力使用系数三因素(简称三因素)所确定的车载设备监控制动距离内列车运行时间。然后,通过对常见的线路限制速度、站前坡坡度、制动力使用系数取值下的车载设备监控制动距离内列车运行时间进行牵引计算仿真,并运用三因素方差分析法分析了三因素的影响显著度,得到了线路限制速度、站前坡坡度对高铁车站接车进路长度影响显著的结论。最后,基于高铁车站接车进路长度计算模型,得到了一组指定到达追踪间隔下的高铁车站接车进路长度表,为高铁车站设计提供思路。     

Predicting disruptions and their passenger delay impacts for public transport stops

Disruptions in public transport can have major implications for passengers and service providers. Our study objective is to develop a generic approach to predict how often different disruption types occur at different stations of a public transport network, and to predict the impact related to these disruptions as measured in terms of passenger delays. We propose a supervised learning approach to perform these predictions, as this allows for predictions for individual stations for each time period, without the requirement of having sufficient empirical disruption observations available for each location and time period. This approach also enables a fast prediction of disruption impacts for a large number of disruption instances, hence addressing the computational challenges that rise when typical public transport assignment or simulation models would be used for real-world public transport networks. To improve transferability of our study results, we cluster stations based on their contribution to network vulnerability using unsupervised learning. This supports public transport agencies to apply the appropriate type of measure aimed to reduce disruptions or to mitigate disruption impacts for each station type. Applied to the Washington metro network, we predict a yearly passenger delay of 5.9 million hours for the total metro network. Based on the clustering, five different types of station are distinguished. Stations with high train frequencies and high passenger volumes located at central trunk sections of the network show to be most critical, along with start/terminal and transfer stations. Intermediate stations located at branches of a line are least critical.

     

Non-discriminatory train dispatching in a rail transport market with multiple competing and collaborative train operating companies

Train dispatching is vital for the punctuality of train services, which is critical for a train operating company (TOC) to maintain its competitiveness. Due to the introduction of competition in the railway transport market, the issue of discrimination is attracting more and more attention. This paper focuses on delivering non-discriminatory train dispatching solutions while multiple TOCs are competing in a rail transport market, and investigating impacting factors of the inequity of train dispatching solutions. A mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model is first proposed, in which the inequity of competitors (i.e., trains and TOCs) is formalized by a set of constraints. In order to provide a more flexible framework, a model is further reformulated where the inequity of competitors is formalized as the maximum individual deviation of competitors’ delay cost from average delay cost in the objective function. Complex infrastructure capacity constraints are considered and modelled through a big M-based approach. The proposed models are solved by a standard MILP solver. A set of comprehensive experiments is conducted on a real-world dataset adapted from the Dutch railway network to test the efficiency, effectiveness, and applicability of the proposed models, as well as determine the trade-off between train delays and delay equity.     

Strategies for customer service level protection under multi-echelon supply chain disruption risk

We model a multi-echelon system where disruptions can occur at any stage and evaluate multiple strategies for protecting customer service if a disruption should occur. The strategies considered take advantage of the network itself and include satisfying demand from an alternate location in the network, procuring material or transportation from an alternate source or route, and holding strategic inventory reserves throughout the network. Unmet demand is modeled using a mix of backordering and lost sales. We conduct numerical analysis and provide recommendations on selecting strategic mitigation methods to diminish the impact of disruptions on customer service. We demonstrate that the greatest service level improvements can be made by providing both proactive inventory placement to cover short disruptions or the start of long disruptions, and reactive back-up methods to help the supply chain recover after long or permanent disruptions.     

Competition and disruption in a dynamic urban supply chain

Rapid changes and complexities in business environments have stressed the importance of interactions between partners and competitors, leading supply chains to become the most important element of contemporary business environments. There is a concomitant need for foresight in describing supply chain performance in all operating environments, including those involving punctuated disruptions. Furthermore, the urban metropolis is now widely recognized to be an environment which is especially vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and for which integrated supply chain decisions can produce very substantial net benefits. Accordingly, this paper presents a dynamic supply chain network model formulated as a differential variational inequality; the model is fashioned to allow consideration of supply chain disruption threats to producers, freight carriers, and retail enterprises. The DVI is solved using a fixed-point algorithm, and a simple numerical example, introduced to illustrate how the impacts of supply chain disruptions may be quantified, is presented.     

A gradient boosting logit model to investigate driver’s stop-or-run behavior at signalized intersections using high-resolution traffic data

Driver’s stop-or-run behavior at signalized intersection has become a major concern for the intersection safety. While many studies were undertaken to model and predict drivers’ stop-or-run (SoR) behaviors including Yellow-Light-Running (YLR) and Red-Light-Running (RLR) using traditional statistical regression models, a critical problem for these models is that the relative influences of predictor variables on driver’s SoR behavior could not be evaluated. To address this challenge, this research proposes a new approach which applies a recently developed data mining approach called gradient boosting logit model to handle different types of predictor variables, fit complex nonlinear relationships among variables, and automatically disentangle interaction effects between influential factors using high-resolution traffic and signal event data collected from loop detectors. Particularly, this research will first identify a series of related influential factors including signal timing information, surrounding traffic information, and surrounding drivers’ behaviors using thousands drivers’ decision events including YLR, RLR, and first-to-stop (FSTP) extracted from high-resolution loop detector data from three intersections. Then the research applies the proposed data mining approach to search for the optimal prediction model for each intersection. Furthermore, a comparison was conducted to compare the proposed new method with the traditional statistical regression model. The results show that the gradient boosting logit model has superior performance in terms of prediction accuracy. In contrast to other machine learning methods which usually apply ‘black-box’ procedures, the gradient boosting logit model can identify and rank the relative importance of influential factors on driver’s stop-or-run behavior prediction. This study brings great potential for future practical applications since loops have been widely implemented in many intersections and can collect data in real time. This research is expected to contribute to the improvement of intersection safety significantly.     

Resilience in railway transport systems: a literature review and research agenda

ABSTRACT

Critical infrastructure networks, such as transport and power networks, are essential for the functioning of a society and economy. The rising transport demand increases the congestion in railway networks and thus they become more interdependent and more complex to operate. Also, an increasing number of disruptions due to system failures as well as climate changes can be expected in the future. As a consequence, many trains are cancelled and excessively delayed, and thus, many passengers are not reaching their destinations which compromises customers need for mobility. Currently, there is a rising need to quantify impacts of disruptions and the evolution of system performance. This review paper aims to set-up a field-specific definition of resilience in railway transport and gives a comprehensive, up-to-date review of railway resilience papers. The focus is on quantitative approaches. The review analyses peer-reviewed papers in Web of Science and Scopus from January 2008 to August 2019. The results show a steady increase of the number of published papers in recent years. The review classifies resilience metrics and approaches. It has been recognised that system-based metrics tend to better capture effects on transport services and transport demand. Also, mathematical optimization shows a great potential to assess and improve resilience of railway systems. Alternatively, data-driven approaches could be potentially used for detailed ex-post analysis of past disruptions. Finally, several rising future scientific topics are identified, spanning from learning from historical data, to considering interdependent critical systems and community resilience. Practitioners can also benefit from the review to understand a common terminology, recognise possible applications for assessing and designing resilient railway transport systems.     

A railway capacity determination model and rail access charging methodologies

This article discusses approaches to the determination of railway capacity and the significance of the following factors on capacity: mix of trains, length and weight of trains, direction of train travel, acceleration and deceleration, stopping protocols of trains, location and length of crossing loops, location of signals, length of sections, dwell times and sectional running times. A more accurate method to calculate railway capacity is developed using previously unaddressed aspects for capacity determination. Capacity and pricing are two key issues for organizations involved with open track access regimes. A train access charging methodology is therefore developed and incorporated into a railway capacity determination model.