A maritime safety on-board decision support system to enhance emergency evacuation on ferryboats

Planning emergency evacuation operations in a proactive manner in public marine transportation systems is a critical success factor for passenger and crew safety. Despite the fact that there is a growing attention on safety issues for marine transportation systems, providing a real-time decision support for evacuation planning under different emergency conditions has not yet been addressed. In this context, this paper contributes to the related literature by providing a comprehensive methodology including simulation and statistical analysis along with a three-module decision support system (DSS) for ferryboat emergency evacuation. Emergency evacuation and fire environment are simulated via Maritime EXODUS V5.1 and SMARTFIRE V4.3, respectively. The methodology is applied to a real-life Ro-Ro ferry, and the results not only revealed significant factors on emergency evacuation performance, but also demonstrated the validity of the developed decision support system.     

模拟器中船舶搁浅危险性评价方法的研究

在航海模拟器中,如何对模拟训练的过程实时、连续地进行航行安全评价一直是急待解决的重要课题。通过建立狭水道航行船舶搁浅危险性定量分析的数学方法,提出了基于大型船舶操纵模拟系统的狭水道航行船舶搁浅危险性评价模型。该模型能实时、连续地评价航行于狭水道等受限水域船的搁浅危险性,是一种对航海模拟训练评价的较客观、科学的方法。     

Studies on emergency evacuation management for maritime transportation

Marine transportation is a vital component of the world’s economy and transportation network. The number of people using passenger ships around the globe is increasing worldwide. Similar to other transportation systems, passenger safety is critical in maritime shipment. As emergency evacuation processes for ships are highly different from and more complicated than those for buildings and other vehicles, many researchers have published a vast range of documents related to this peculiar research area. However, there is a tangible lack of sufficient literature review studies that investigate marine emergency evacuation (MEE). That being the case, the potential of marine transportation and the effect of emergency evacuation operation on life safety have inspired the proposal of this study. This paper offers a review of the available literature on MEE modelling, analysis and planning during the period from 1973 to 2017 using a systematic approach. After reviewing relevant academic journals, peer-reviewed conference papers, and technical reports of agencies, relevant literature is analysed. In addition, the literature review is extended by means of proposing a framework methodology which considers different possible conditions and situations during MEE. Finally, insights for ship managers and policymakers are discussed and potential future research directions are identified.     

Methods for probabilistic safety assessments of ships

 At the 62nd MSC conference (MSC62) in 1993, the UK proposed a new methodology for the consideration of safety regulations. This method is called formal safety assessment (FSA). FSA is an application of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). Risk is used as an index of safety. One of the most important parts of FSA is to evaluate the risk to a ship when it is equipped with the safety measures recommended by the proposed safety regulations. The National Maritime Research Institute (NMRI, formerly the Ship Research Institute) has been developing a method which allows the risk to be obtained holistically by utilizing a scientific method. To obtain the risk, the probability and consequences of every accident must be evaluated. This paper examines the following points: (a) a holistic methodology for risk evaluation; (b) a method used in the process of estimating the probability of collision; (c) a method to reduce the numbers of fire escalation scenarios; (d) a trial risk evaluation of cabin fire. Received: January 10, 2002 / Accepted: April 18, 2002     

模块化救生装置的研制

根据集装箱船加改装成医院船工作中的需要,为满足船上人员海上遇险救生需要,研制了模块化的救生装置。针对模块化医院船的特点,提出担架伤员撤离主要通过救生艇,并对救生艇模块的设计进行了详细的说明,还介绍了海上撤离系统和气胀式救生筏。通过海上试验,证明该套救生装置可顺利地在集装箱船上安装和使用,可有效满足医院船的人员海上遇险救生需要。     

A trial application of FSA methodology to the hatchway watertight integrity of bulk carriers

Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a formal, structured and systematic methodology, aimed at enhancing maritime safety, including protection of life, property and marine environment, by using risk and cost–benefit assessments. For the application of this methodology to the rule-making process, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) presented the Interim Guidelines, which describe procedures of FSA and inputs/outputs of each procedure in detail. This paper basically deals with an application of FSA methodology according to the IMO's Interim Guidelines to the hatchway watertight integrity of bulk carriers, which was carried out as a cooperative research between Korean Register of Shipping and Seoul National University. As results of this application study, 18 hazards are identified and 32 risk control measures are devised to reduce the associated risks. Potential risks, costs and benefits when some Risk Control Options are introduced are evaluated in monetary unit of US $. Finally, some discussions and recommendations based on experiences are also given for both future work and better application of this FSA methodology to the rule-making process.     

Safety in Greek coastal shipping: The role and risk of human factor revisited

The comprehensive analysis presented in this paper investigates the links and comparative assets between human factor and other factors that are important determinants of maritime transport risk. In this outline, the identification of factors, such as age and ship size, that can be statistically linked (i.e. statistical significance) to whether an accident in a passenger vessel can be attributed to human factor or other causes is addressed accordingly. This way, the role of human factor in relation to safety of Greek coastal shipping is revealed and the spotlight is able to focus on the various aspects and points that manifest the importance of human element in the maritime industry. The risk assessment of the transportation with Greek passenger ships is being used in order for the safety level of Greek coastal shipping to be adequately estimated. Moreover, the comparison between the values of risk for accidents caused by human factor and those attributed to other causes is an established way to bring to the fore the unbroken relationship between the human factor and marine accidents’ consequences. The paper is concluded with interesting insights and comments drafted through the aforementioned tasks.     

基于蜂窝单元的海上交通风险分析

传统的船舶交通风险分析是将研究水域作为一个整体来评估其风险状况的。基于蜂窝单元的船舶交通风险分析,把研究水域按一定标准划分为若干地理单元,将历史数据、数学模型以及专家学者的经验和判断有机地结合起来,用以评估每一地理单元船舶碰撞和搁浅事故的概率,其输出结果以地理分布的形式突出了高风险区域。相对于传统的风险分析,该理论更能够全面、准确地描述水域的风险状况,为采纳和实施正确的安全措施提供了强有力的支持。     

Cultural Models of Pfiesteria : Toward Cultivating More Appropriate Risk Perceptions

Based on semistructured interviews (N = 7), informal interviewing (N = 63), and a survey (N = 790), this article describes the cultural models used by mid-Atlantic residents to understand Pfiesteria piscicida. A cultural model is a simplified way of understanding a complex system, shared by members of a culture. Eighty-eight percent of respondents understood Pfiesteria using one of four previously existing cultural models: a disease in fish, a parasite in fish, a water pollutant, and a toxin or poison. These models are not used by marine biologists, who are more likely to refer to Pfiesteria taxonomically or, in its fish killing form, to call it a predator. Our survey shows that the cultural model a respondent holds is correlated significantly with his or her believed pathway of human harm (e.g., eating fish versus swimming) and is correlated significantly but weakly with his or her behavioral responses. We conclude that existing cultural models, as the public has applied them to Pfiesteria, have led people to avoid a range of coastal activities and seafoods, in virtually all cases unnecessarily. Cultural models appear to explain public reaction better than previously hypothesized factors such as inaccurate media coverage. These findings suggest an approach to developing a pedagogical and communications strategy which could provide the public with a cultural model better matched to Pfiesteria.     

The Art of Successfully Applying Human Systems Integration

This paper reviews developments in human factors and then draws from a number of "best practice" cases in studying how best to apply behavioral science principles, knowledge, and analytical tools to the engineering design or improvement of systems. Government and other commercial experiences are examined with a focus on the Navy human system integration (HSI) process. Included are discussions facilitated at a workshop session sponsored by the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. There is general consensus that in addition to using a well-designed or proven process and doing the right things, success is dependent upon attending to a prioritized short list of critical elements. Continued focus on these elements is necessary to successfully apply human behavioral sciences effectively during design, construction, and operation of systems to improve safety, reliability, effectiveness, efficiency, and quality of life.     

深远海设施人员应急撤离路径优化模型

针对深远海设施人员应急撤离路线优化问题,基于深水半潜式支持平台船体实际环境信息,考虑各可撤离路径的通行能力,引入拥挤度和撤离时间来计算人员路阻函数,构建人员撤离路径优化模型.以一个小型多源多汇拓扑网络的人员撤离方案为例,分别求解人员撤离路径优化模型和传统最短撤离路径模型,并对计算结果进行对比分析,验证人员撤离路径优化模型的有效性.     

常规潜艇服役期综合安全评估指标体系研究

在分析潜艇事故记录的基础上结合专家及基层人员意见,针对潜艇风险的特点首次提出常规潜艇服役期综合安全评估指标体系.该指标体系综合考虑了常规潜艇服役期内所处的不同状态及环境、人因因素、潜艇系统对潜艇安全的影响.研究成果对常规潜艇的安全风险评估与安全风险管理具有参考价值.     

海洋油气设施完整性管理产业的探索

随着海上油气资源的开发,其风险管控与安全管理日益重要,海洋油气设施完整性管理产业应运而生。海洋油气设施完整性管理产业作为一个崭新的行业,不仅需要良好的技术支撑,更需要先进的管理理念来保证这一行业的形成和发展。本文旨在分析海洋油气产业风险管控与安全管理形势的基础上,通过引进项目管理理论与企业管理理念、结合海洋油气产业的已有管理理念,对这一新兴产业的管理策略、生产组织形式等进行基本的探索研究。     

Open-type ferry safety system design for using LNG fuel

In this feasibility study, we investigate the viability of using Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) fuel in an open type Ro-Ro passenger ferry and the associated potential challenges with regard to the vessel safety systems. We recommend an appropriate methodology for converting existing ships to run on LNG fuel, discuss all the necessary modifications to the ship’s safety systems, and also evaluate the relevant ship evacuation procedures. We outline the basic requirements with which the ship already complies for each safety system and analyze the additional restrictions that must be taken into consideration for the use of LNG fuel. Appropriate actions are recommended. Furthermore, we carry out a hazard identification study. Overall, we clearly demonstrate the technical feasibility of the investigated scenario. Minimal modifications to the ship’s safety systems are required to comply with existing safety rules for this specific type of ship.     

使用LNG燃料的开放式轮渡安全系统设计（英文）

In this feasibility study, we investigate the viability of using Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG) fuel in an open type Ro-Ro passenger ferry and the associated potential challenges with regard to the vessel safety systems. We recommend an appropriate methodology for converting existing ships to run on LNG fuel, discuss all the necessary modifications to the ship's safety systems, and also evaluate the relevant ship evacuation procedures. We outline the basic requirements with which the ship already complies for each safety system and analyze the additional restrictions that must be taken into consideration for the use of LNG fuel. Appropriate actions are recommended. Furthermore, we carry out a hazard identification study. Overall, we clearly demonstrate the technical feasibility of the investigated scenario. Minimal modifications to the ship's safety systems are required to comply with existing safety rules for this specific type of ship.     

综合安全评价在船舶动力装置中的应用

综合安全评价（FSA）是一种在工程技术与工程运行管理中用于制定合理可行的规则和提供风险控制的综合性、结构化和系统性的分析方法，将FSA引入到船舶动力装置的安全评价中，是对船舶安全评价的一次尝试，按照综合安全评价的五个步骤对影响船舶动力装置安全的因素进行了分析评价。具体应用时，使用故障树分析法以拉缸故障为实例做了定性和定量分析，根据评价结果提出了相应的安全管理措施，为船舶轮机人员及管理人员提供参考。     

大型船舶航行的风险分析与风险控制

安全科学的发展要求从传统的事故管理转变为风险管理。在构建船舶航行系统风险的基础上,通过船舶航行事故统计和船舶航行作业规范化安全评估,对目前大型船舶航行的风险构成、影响因素进行定量研究,提出了大型船舶航行的风险矩阵,并就船舶航行的风险控制提出一些措施。     

A quantitative risk analysis by using interval type-2 fuzzy FMEA approach: the case of oil spill

ABSTRACT

Risk assessment in maritime domain is one of the most cited topics since maritime transportation poses potential hazard for human life, marine environment and property. To mitigate risk and enhance safety awareness in maritime transportation, safety researchers have been seeking proactive solutions. This article prompts a quantitative risk-based approach combining interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FSs) with failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to perform a comprehensive risk analysis. Thus, potential failure modes and their effects are revealed by calculating risk prioritisation numbers (RPNs). Whilst the FMEA method provides a robust risk analysing tool with relevant control options, the IT2FSs deals with ambiguity and vagueness of linguistic assessment of decision-makers through the FMEA. Hence, expert’s linguistic assessment in risk assessment can be transformed into useful information in terms of enhancing safety and pollution prevention in maritime industry. To demonstrate the proposed approach, potential failures and effects of a real shipboard oil spill case are handled. The findings show that incomplete information exchanged with local maritime authorities, malfunction of oil skimmer and poor organization of shoreline clean-up team are the most important failures during case of oil spill. The proposed approach provides not only theoretical insight into the maritime transportation industry but also practical contributions to chemical/oil tanker safety and environmental protection by mitigating risk in terms of technical or operational aspects.     

基于贝叶斯网络的港口生产安全评价方法

将基于贝叶斯网络的概率安全评价方法引入港口生产作业安全评价中,提出了将故障树分析法转换为贝叶斯网络的步骤,建立了基于贝叶斯网络的安全评价模型。通过在贝叶斯网络模型上进行推理求解,进行前向的风险预测和后向的诊断分析。最后通过对码头前沿机损的安全评价实例说明该评价方法的合理性和有效性。     

船舶电力系统建模

分析研究船舶电力系统的安全性可以运用系统故障仿真手段，但必须对船舶电力系统精确的数学模型进行建模。从某大型集装箱船舶电力系统的工作原理出发，根据柴油发电机组的动态特性，研究了船舶电力系统模型的结构和原理，建立了船舶电力系统模型，该系统可以仿真船舶电力系统的许多运行工况。给出了发电机组正常起动过程和滑油泵、侧推器先后起动时滑油泵电缆发生三相接地故障的仿真过程，对电力系统的参数整定和安全策略的选取有一定的参考价值。