Assessment of wind quality for oceanographic modelling in semi-enclosed basins

The quality of surface winds derived from four meteorological models is assessed in the semi-enclosed Adriatic Sea over a 2-month period: a global hydrostatic model ECMWF T511 (40 km resolution), a hydrostatic limited area model LAMBO (20 km), and two non-hydrostatic limited area models: LAMI (7 km) and COAMPS™ (4 km). These wind models are used to drive a 2 km resolution wave model (SWAN) of the Adriatic, and wind and wave results are compared with observations at the ISMAR oceanographic tower off Venice. Waves are also compared at buoy locations near Ancona and Ortona. Consistently with earlier studies, the ECMWF fields underestimate the wind magnitude and do not reproduce the known spatial structure of strong wind events. The results show that the higher-resolution, limited area models LAMI and COAMPS exhibit better amplitude response than the coarser ECMWF: there is a 3- to 4-fold reduction of the wind underestimation at the platform (from 36% to 8–11%). The wave response is also improved with LAMI and COAMPS: there is a 2-fold reduction in the underestimation of wave heights at the platform. These non-hydrostatic models also produce wind fields with more realistic small-scale, spatial structure during strong wind events. The temporal correlation between observed and modelled wind, however, is highest with the global ECMWF model due to the fact that large-scale features can be predicted deterministically, whereas small-scale features can only be predicted stochastically. Models with less small-scale structure have better correlation because they have less “noise.” This explanation is supported by increased correlation between modelled and observed waves, the waves representing a smoothing of the wind over fetch and duration. Although there is room for improvement, the high-resolution, non-hydrostatic models (LAMI and COAMPS) offer significant advantages for driving oceanographic simulations in semi-enclosed basins such as the Adriatic Sea.     

Preoperational ocean forecasting in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea: Implementation and evaluation of the models and selection of the atmospheric forcing

Within the framework of several local and international programs, a quasi-operational ocean-forecasting system for the Southeastern Mediterranean Sea has been established and evaluated through a series of preoperational tests. The Princeton Ocean Model (POM) is used for simulating and predicting the hydrodynamics while the Wave Model (WAM) is used for predicting surface waves. Both models were set up to allow varying resolution and multiple nesting. In addition, POM was set up to be easily relocatable to allow rapid deployment of the model for any region of interest within the Mediterranean Sea. A common requirement for both models is the need for atmospheric forcing. Both models require time varying wind or wind stress. In addition, the hydrodynamic model requires initial conditions as well as time dependent surface heat fluxes, fresh water flux, and lateral boundary conditions at the open boundaries. Several sources of atmospheric forcing have been assessed based on their availability and their impact on the quality of the ocean models' forecasts. The various sources include operational forecast centers, other research centers, as well as running an in-house regional atmospheric model. For surface waves, higher spatial and temporal resolution of the winds plays a central role in improving the forecasts in terms of significant wave height and the timing of various high wave events. For the hydrodynamics, using the predicted wind stress and heat fluxes directly from an atmospheric model can potentially produce short range ocean forecasts that are nearly as good as hindcasts forced with gridded atmospheric analyses. Finally, a high-resolution, nested version of the model has shown to be stable under a variety of forcing conditions and time scales, thus indicating the robustness of the selected nesting strategy. For the southeastern corner of the Mediterranean, at forecast lead times of up to 4 days the high-resolution model shows improved skill over the coarser resolution driving model when compared to satellite derived sea surface temperatures. Most of the error appears to be due to the analysis error inherent in the initial conditions.     

Hydrological changes in the Mediterranean Sea in relation to changes in the freshwater budget: A numerical modelling study

The response of the Mediterranean Sea and the various sub-basins to changes in the freshwater budget are investigated in a process-oriented study, using the POM model. The model is first integrated using values of the Nile and Ebro rivers runoff, as well as of the Dardanelles freshwater input, typical of the fifties. The model reaches a steady state representative of that existing in the Mediterranean prior to the major damming period after 90 years of integration. Then the model is integrated using the reduced river runoff values typical of the after-damming period. The additional impact of decadal scale trends in the precipitation rate as well as of intense surface cooling periods/events on the thermohaline circulation during the last 40 years were also examined. The model results show that the dramatic reduction of the Nile freshwater input and to a lesser extent the reduction of the freshwater input from the Dardanelles Straits induced a large increase in the sea surface salinity in the Aegean and Levantine basins in the late sixties/early seventies, in agreement with observations. Furthermore, the Ebro runoff reduction during the same period further enhanced the salinity increase in the Levantine basin as higher salinity surface waters of the western basin reached the eastern basin via the Atlantic Water circulation. This saltier surface layer in the vicinity of the Rhodes Gyre favoured the preconditioning for the formation of the Levantine Intermediate Water, resulting in about 40% increase of its formation rate. This in turn resulted in the production of saltier and larger amounts of deep waters in the various deep-water formation sites. According to the model, the river damming and decreased precipitation since the eighties explain about 95% of the observed salinity increase in the Western Mediterranean Deep Water over the last 40 years. The major contributor to this increase was proved to be the Nile damming. The salt increase in the surface layer is proved to be insufficient to produce alone the two climatic transient events in the deep waters of the Eastern Mediterranean in the late sixties and early nineties, respectively. Surface cooling was found to be important, resulting in large deep water formation and thus allowing the propagation of the increased surface salinity signal to the deep layers. However, model results demonstrate that the river damming played an important role in the long-term salt preconditioning of the surface/intermediate layers, thus contributing in triggering the two events.     

The effect of precession-induced changes in the Mediterranean freshwater budget on circulation at shallow and intermediate depth

The Neogene marine sedimentary record of the Mediterranean basin is characterised by the regular occurrence of organic-rich layers or sapropels. These sapropels are known to correlate with the precession cycle: their deposition coincides with precession minima. This correlation is thought to be caused to a large extent by a precession-induced increase in the amount of freshwater reaching the Mediterranean Sea. In the literature, various sources of this extra freshwater have been identified and different mechanisms as to how this freshwater flux leads to sapropels have been proposed. In this study we investigate the effects of precession-induced changes in the freshwater budget using a regional ocean general circulation model of the Mediterranean Sea. Emphasis is on the effects at the surface and at intermediate depth. The forcing of the ocean model is adjusted to precession minimum conditions on a parameter by parameter basis. Novel to our approach is that the value of the required adjustments is taken from a global coupled climate model with which experiments have been performed for the present day (close to precession maximum) and precession minimum. With the ocean model we focus on the extent to which extra runoff from either south (specifically: the river Nile) or north and changes in net precipitation over the sea itself lead to a more stable stratification; this we judge by the associated reduction of the sea surface salinity and mixed layer depth in the regions of intermediate and deep water formation. Our main finding is that the effects of (1) increased discharge of the rivers coming from the north, and (2) the increase in net precipitation over the sea itself, are of equal or greater importance than that of increase in Nile discharge.     

Description of a flexible and extendable physical–biogeochemical model system for the water column

A modelling system for coupled physical–biogeochemical simulations in the water column is presented here. The physical model component allows for a number of different statistical turbulence closure schemes, ranging from simple algebraic closures to two-equation turbulence models with algebraic second-moment closures. The biogeochemical module consists of models which are based on a number of state variables represented by their ensemble averaged concentrations. Specific biogeochemical models may range from simple NPZ (nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton) to complex ecosystem models. Recently developed modified Patankar solvers for ordinary differential equations allow for stable discretisations of the production and destruction terms guaranteeing conservative and non-negative solutions. The increased stability of these new solvers over explicit solvers is demonstrated for a plankton spring bloom simulation. The model system is applied to marine ecosystem dynamics the Northern North Sea and the Central Gotland Sea. Two different biogeochemical models are applied, a conservative nitrogen-based model to the North Sea, and a more complex model including an oxygen equation to the Baltic Sea, allowing for the reproduction of chemical processes under anoxic conditions. For both applications, earlier model results obtained with slightly different model setups could be basically reproduced. It became however clear that the choice for ecosystem model parameters such as maximum phytoplankton growth rates does strongly depend on the physical model parameters (such as turbulence closure models or external forcing).     

Isotopic composition of carbon and nitrogen of suprabenthic fauna in the NW Balearic Islands (western Mediterranean)

Stable isotope (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) analyses were performed on suprabenthic fauna collected in the western Mediterranean (NW Balearic Islands), at depths ranging between 350 and 780 m. Samples were collected seasonally at bi-monthly intervals during six cruises performed between August 2003 and June 2004, using a Macer-GIROQ suprabenthic sledge (0.5 mm mesh size). Twenty-four separate species (5 mysids, 12 amphipods, 2 cumaceans, 2 isopods, 1 euphausiid, 1 decapod and 1 fish) and bulk copepods were analyzed on a seasonal basis for stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes. Stable nitrogen isotope ratios (δ¹⁵N) ranged from 2.3‰ (the amphipod Lepechinella manco in September 2003) to 13.0‰ (the amphipod Rhachotropis caeca in August 2003). δ¹³C values ranged from − 24.2 (the cumacean Campylaspis sulcata in June 2004) to − 16.1 (the amphipod Bruzelia typica in November 2006). Both δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values suggest that there are three trophic levels within the suprabenthic community. However, considering the bathymetric range of the species, the results suggest that the deepest assemblage supported only two trophic levels. The stable isotope ratios of suprabenthic fauna displayed a continuum of values and confirmed a wide spectrum of feeding types (from filter-feeders to predators). In general, and in spite of the poor knowledge about diets available for most suprabenthic species, higher δ¹⁵N were found for carnivorous amphipods (e.g. Rhachotropis spp., Nicippe tumida) consuming copepods. Low overlap for δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values was observed, though δ¹⁵N values where less variable than δ¹³C, which suggests high resource partitioning in this assemblage. Seasonal variations in isotopic composition for both δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N were low (less than 1‰ and 3‰, respectively) and variable depending on species. Low correlations between δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N of suprabenthic fauna were found for all periods studied, though increasing from February 2004 to June 2004 (after the main peak of primary production in surface). C:N ratio (indicator of lipid content) showed higher values in summer than in winter. This suggests that lipid content may explain the seasonal patterns of δ¹³C variability and, due to the increase of storage products in phytoplankton and zooplankton, it possibly indicates the peak of primary production at the surface.     

Hydrographic conditions affecting two fishing grounds of Mallorca island (Western Mediterranean): during the IDEA Project (2003–2004)

This paper describes the hydrographic conditions observed during six surveys carried out during 2003 and 2004, in the framework of the “IDEA Project” (acronym for “Influence of oceanographic structure and dynamics on demersal populations in waters of the Balearic Islands”). The surveys were developed on the shelf and slope of Mallorca Island, in particular in two fishing grounds at the north and south of the Mallorca channel. Periodic movements of the fishing fleet between these two areas have been regularly reported, suggesting a seasonal variability of the resources which could be in turn associated with the hydrodynamic variability. With this motivation, water masses affecting these grounds have been identified and their seasonal variability has been studied. Different oceanographic and environmental conditions have been found between the two fishing grounds. These differences are related to the presence of mesoscale structures, associated with the Western Mediterranean Intermediate Water (WIW) at the north of the Ibiza channel and big gyres detached from the Algerian Current. The former has been shown to have influence on the regional oceanic circulation and the latter could affect the progress of fresh Atlantic Water (AW) towards the channels and make possible the presence of high salinity values at intermediate waters at the south of Mallorca Island. Historical data from other oceanographic cruises carried out in the region are finally used to discuss the interannual variability of these mesoscale structures.     

Forecast verification of a 3D model of the Mediterranean Sea. The use of discrete wavelet transforms and EOFs in the skill assessment of spatial forecasts

The quality assessment of a nested model system of the Mediterranean Sea is realised. The model has two zooms in the Provençal Basin and in the Ligurian Sea, realised with a two-way nesting approach. The experiment lasts for nine weeks, and at each week sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level anomaly are assimilated. The quality assessment of the surface temperature is done in a spatio-temporal approach, to take into account the high complexity of the SST distribution. We focus on the multi-scale nature of oceanic processes using two powerful tools for spatio-temporal analysis, wavelets and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). We apply two-dimensional wavelets to decompose the high-resolution model and observed SST into different spatial scales. The Ligurian Sea model results are compared to observations at each of those spatial scales, with special attention on how the assimilation affects the model behaviour. We also use EOFs to assess the similarities between the Mediterranean Sea model and the observed SST. The results show that the assimilation mainly affects the model large-scale features, whereas the small scales show little or no improvement and sometimes, even a decrease in their skill. The multiresolution analysis reveals the connection between large- and small-scale errors, and how the choice of the maximum correlation length of the assimilation scheme affects the distribution of the model error among the different spatial scales.     

Surface patterns of zooplankton spatial variability detected by high frequency sampling in the NW Mediterranean. Role of density fronts

High frequency sampling was performed in daylight hours along a 35 km transect in the Ligurian Sea to investigate the upper layer zooplankton distribution during the spring phytoplankton bloom. The results show detailed spatial structure and biomass of key zooplankton functional groups, copepods, salps and krill larvae, within the different water masses characterizing this region. Although observed values of total copepod biomass distribution were rather constant along the transect, species-specific patterns were observed in the copepod spatial distribution. The larger species Calanus helgolandicus, as well as Centropages typicus, Oithona spp., and Oncaea spp., were associated with the frontal zone. However, Acartia spp. had a scattered distribution, and Clausocalanus/Paracalanus did not have a clear pattern. In addition, krill larvae were concentrated in the frontal area and salps had a scattered pattern. The cross-shore zooplankton distribution appeared strongly influenced by both the Northern Ligurian current governing inshore waters, which acts as a major flushing forcing, and the Ligurian front, which governs offshore waters and may act as retention area for zooplankton.     

The influence of different turbulence schemes on modelling primary production in a 1D coupled physical–biological model

A one-dimensional (1D) coupled physical–microbiological model has been applied to a site in the central North Sea. The impact of the choice of the turbulence closure scheme on the modelling the primary production has been investigated.The model was run with four different parameterisations of vertical mixing of heat, momentum and dissolved and suspended matters, using M2 tidal forcing and the hourly mean meteorological forcing of 1989 to reproduce the annual thermal structure and primary production. The four mixing parameterisations are: Level 2 turbulence closure scheme [Mellor, G.L., Yamada, T., 1974. A hierarchy of turbulence closure models for planetary boundary layers. J. Atmos. Sci. 31, 1791–1806; Mellor, G.L., Yamada, T., 1982. Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical Fluid problems. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 20 (4) 851–875] using an explicit numerical scheme [Sharples, J., Tett, P., 1994. Modelling the effect of physical variability on the midwater chlorophyll maximum. J. Mar. Res. 52, 219–238]; a version of the Level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme [Galperin, B., Kantha, L.H., Hassid, S., Rosati, A., 1988. A quasi-equilibrium turbulent energy model for geophysical flows. J. Atmos. Sci. 45, 55–62; Ruddick, K.G., Deleersnijder, E., Luyten, P.J., Ozer, J., 1995. Haline stratification in the rhine/meuse freshwater plume: a 3D model sensitivity analysis. Cont. Shelf Res. 15 (13) 1597–1630] simplified to use an algebraic mixing length by Sharples and Simpson [Sharples, J., Simpson, J.H., 1995. Semidiurnal and longer period stability cycles in the Liverpool Bay region of freshwater influence. Cont. Shelf Res. 15, 295–313], also solved explicitly; the same simplified L2.5 scheme with an implicit numerical solution and modified vertical discretisation scheme [Annan, J.D., 1999. Numerical methods for the solution of the turbulence energy equations in the shelf seas. Int. J. Numer. Methods Fluids 29, 193–206]; and another version of the same scheme (but using a different algebraic mixing length) as described by Xing and Davies [Xing, J., Davies, A.M., 1996a. Application of turbulence energy models to the computation of tidal currents and mixing intensities in the shelf edge regions. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 26, 417–447; Xing, J., Davies, A.M., 1996b. Application of a range of turbulence models to the computation of tidal currents and mixing intensities in shelf edge regions. Cont. Shelf. Res. 16, 517–547; Xing, J., Davies, A.M., 1998. Application of a range of turbulence energy models to the computation of the internal tide. Int. J. Numer. Methods Fluids 26, 1055–1084]. Various model outputs at the sea surface and in depth profiles have been compared with data collected in 1989 as part of the North Sea Project [Huthnance, J.M., 1990. Progress on North Sea Project. NERC News, vol. 12, pp. 25–29, UK]. It is shown that the biological results are extremely sensitive to the small changes in the physical conditions, which arise due to the different turbulence schemes tested. The timing of the spring bloom and the maintenance of the midwater chlorophyll maximum all differ greatly between model runs, and the gross primary production varies by a factor of two from the highest to lowest results. The simplified Level 2.5 scheme, implemented using the numerical methods of Annan [Annan, J.D., 1999. Numerical methods for the solution of the turbulence energy equations in the shelf seas. Int. J. Numer. Methods Fluids 29, 193–206], produces results, which give the best agreement with the available data.     

Kinetic modelling of the dispersion of plutonium in the eastern Irish Sea: two approaches

A new model to simulate the dispersion of plutonium in the eastern Irish Sea is presented. The model solves the 3D hydrodynamic equations using normalized σ coordinates in the vertical simultaneously with the suspended matter equation. Pu can be present in three phases: water, suspended matter and bottom sediments. Reduction and oxidation reactions are also included in the model, in terms of reaction rates, since Pu can be present in the marine environment in principally two different oxidation states. Two kinetic models are presented to describe the transfers of radionuclides between the liquid and solid phases: a one-step model consisting of a single reversible reaction and a two-step model consisting of two consecutive reversible reactions. It has been found that both models can properly simulate the contamination of the waters and sediments from the eastern Irish Sea due to the releases from the BNFL Sellafield nuclear fuel processing plant, since the outputs from both models are very similar and in agreement with observations. Also, both models can simulate the speciation of Pu between the reduced and oxidized forms. However, if the dominant source of radionuclides to the water column is redissolution from a contaminated sediment, a process that is actually occurring in the Irish Sea, it has been found that a two-step model must be used. Indeed, a one-step model predicts the redissolution from the sediment to be unrealistically rapid.     

Exploring relationships between recruitment of European hake (Merluccius merluccius L. 1758) and environmental factors in the Ligurian Sea and the Strait of Sicily (Central Mediterranean)

This paper explores the relationships between the spatial patterns of the distribution of the young hakes of the year (YOY) and the oceanographical features in two areas of the Central Mediterranean (the Ligurian Sea and the Strait of Sicily), characterised by the occurrence of straits and channels. Comparative and correlative approaches were used to investigate coupling between biological and physical patterns. Density indices of the YOY were derived from annual trawl surveys from 1994 to 2004 in spring and autumn. Mean patterns of the YOY distributions were compared with the mesoscale oceanographical features reported in literature. No evident trends in recruitment strength were found in either areas. Inter-annual variability in YOY abundance in the Ligurian Sea was higher than in the Strait of Sicily. The location of nursery grounds in the study areas coincides with zones of relatively higher production, where upwelling and other enrichment processes regularly occur. The presence of predictable eddies and the frontal systems play a major role in the localization of nursery areas in the Strait of Sicily, maintaining their stable position throughout the years. The strongest transport of southern waters from the Tyrrhenian to the Ligurian Sea, due to the East Corsica Current, which is negatively correlated to winter North Atlantic Oscillation, is associated with the highest abundance of hake recruits in the nurseries of the Northern Ligurian Sea.     

Evidence of episodic changes in deep-sea mesozooplankton abundance and composition in the Levantine Sea (Eastern Mediterranean)

Mesozooplankton samples from the 4270-m deep Ierapetra Basin in the oligotrophic Levantine Sea have revealed a strong temporal variability in abundance and composition hitherto unknown for the deep sea pelagic zone. The phenomenon reflected by a survey in June 1993 as compared to January 1987 is assessed by (i) the increase of the mesozooplankton standing crop throughout the water column, (ii) the absence of a decline in mesozooplankton abundance with increasing depth below 1000 m, (iii) the outstanding dominance of two interzonal calanoid copepods at bathypelagic and abyssopelagic depths and (iv) a substantial faunal change due to the codominance of Calanus helgolandicus, which was found for the first time in the area. The underlying hydrographical factors are addressed in the light of the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT). Apart from a possible long-term faunal change, the EMT may exaggerate episodic plankton blooms and surface-abyssopelagic coupling in space and time.     

Carbon flux in ice–ocean–plankton systems of the Bellingshausen Sea during a period of ice retreat

Most analyses of marine microbial systems in the seasonally ice covered areas of the Southern Ocean have been based on data from the major embayment areas of the Ross and Weddell Seas. In this study data were collected at stations covering a range of regimes from full ice cover through to open water in the Bellingshausen Sea. A major feature of the production system was a rapid retreat of the ice-edge, which uncoupled the marginal ice zone from a phytoplankton bloom which remained associated with a frontal system. This bloom was maintained, and probably initiated, in an unusual environment generated by the interaction between the marginal ice zone and the front. Size-based analyses of the microbial system were derived for ice-covered, recently ice-covered and open water sites. Estimates of standing stocks and key rate processes were combined to produce a single food web network for each station. The under-ice system was one of low production and low recycling but apparently high retention. As the ice retreated the microbial systems to the north began to develop, but these were constrained by grazing pressure. The bloom in the area appeared to be sustained even though estimated losses were far higher than production, although the high sedimentation losses expected were not observed. The carbon flow networks are discussed in relation to the environmental changes and the interaction of the marginal ice zone and the frontal system appears crucial to the phytoplankton. Microzooplankton grazing is implicated as a major controlling factor. The local microbial dynamics are strongly influenced by material which was produced at an earlier time and somewhere else in the Southern Ocean.     

Characterization of fall–winter upwelling recurrence along the Galician western coast (NW Spain) from 2000 to 2005: Dependence on atmospheric forcing

Upwelling events driving ENACW (Eastern North Atlantic Coastal Water) into the Galician western coast rias had been considered typical spring–summer processes, according to the research developed in this area. However, they can also be observed in fall or winter under northerly winds blowing at shelf. Six different upwelling events were analyzed in the Ria of Pontevedra during the wet season (NDJF) from 2000 to 2005. These events were characterized by means of the zonal Ekman transport (Q_x) at four control points in front of the western rias (locally known as Rias Baixas) and thermohaline variables measured at a fixed station in the main mouth of the Ria of Pontevedra. The duration of the upwelling events ranged from 27 days (during February and March 2002) to 69 days (during November–December 2004 and January 2005). Upwelling events studied in the Ria of Pontevedra from 2000 to 2005 showed the similarity in upwelling features during both seasons (similar wind forcing and upwelled water). Finally, Q_x was correlated with the most representative atmospheric patterns in the Northern Hemisphere (EA, NAO, EA/WR, POL and SCA) from 1966 to 2005. The winter EA pattern has the most influence on Q_x showing an annual evolution with a prevalence of the positive phase from 1976 on. This positive phase is directly correlated with a prevalence of positive values of Q_x which are upwelling unfavorable in the Rias Baixas.     

Biological effects of dilution of Dead Sea brine with seawater: implications for the planning of the Red Sea–Dead Sea “Peace Conduit”

The Dead Sea is a severely disturbed ecosystem. Its water level has been decreasing at a rate of nearly 1 m per year during the last decade due to anthropogenic intervention in its water balance. Since the peace treaty between Israel and Jordan was established in 1994, a proposal for the construction of a water carrier, the “Peace Conduit,” between the Gulf of Aqaba (Red Sea) and the Dead Sea is being investigated. This water carrier is intended to mitigate damaging processes that currently occur in the Dead Sea and its surrounding area. The difference in elevation of about 416 m could be exploited for seawater desalination by reverse osmosis. To examine the possible effects of the mixing of Dead Sea brines with seawater and seawater concentrates on the Dead Sea as an ecosystem, we have set up simulation experiments under field conditions in experimental ponds at Sedom, in which Dead Sea water was diluted with Red Sea water. The main components of the Dead Sea biota are the unicellular green alga Dunaliella and several types of red halophilic Archaea. Phosphate is the limiting inorganic nutrient. Massive Dunaliella blooms developed, accompanied by dense communities of red halophilic Archaea, in some of the experimental ponds, imparting a brown-red coloration to the brines. The extent of biological development depended on the extent of dilution and on phosphate availability. The results of the simulation experiments show that biological phenomena and their impact on the Dead Sea ecosystem should be taken into consideration during the planning of the “Peace Conduit.”     

Selection of appropriate numerical models for modelling the stresses in mooring chains

Mooring chains are key components for floating platforms. The failure of these components can be catastrophic in terms of the economic and environmental impacts, especially when dealing with the potential failure of FPSOs. However, mooring failures have been regularly occurring much earlier in their service lives than expected, with almost 50% of the reported failures happening in the first 3 years of 20-year design lives. Although the operating stresses play a major role in determining the failure mechanisms of mooring chains, the methods of predicting the operating stresses in mooring chains vary in the openly available literature, and the accuracy of these different numerical methods for predicting types of mooring failures is unknown. There is currently little evidence provided for when one model is appropriate for a particular scenario. Therefore, this paper benchmarks the different available methods for modelling mooring chains under tension, including FE models found in the literature. These models are calibrated and verified against previous studies and compared with experiments and a developed FE explicit model. There is a significant difference in the way that the numerical models behave, which are discussed in terms of their applicability and limitations in modelling mooring chains. The results of this study show that the explicit modelling approach should be utilised for accurate assessment of mooring lines, as it provides the most realistic response, with a substantial reduction in the computational cost and without any convergence problems.     

Challenges in the application of spatial computable general equilibrium models for transport appraisal

The use of spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) models for assessing the economic impacts of transport projects is one of the key items on the research agenda for project appraisal in the Netherlands. These models are particularly suitable for analysing indirect effects of transport projects through linkages between the transport sector and the wider economy. Potentially, according to the literature, indirect effects that are additional to first-order direct cost reductions can turn out to be up to almost 80% in magnitude of the direct impacts. Given the relevance of these models for policy appraisal, experiences with this new modelling approach are important to report. After two years of development and application of SCGE models for transport appraisal, we found that the translation of theory behind the spatial equilibrium models into practical model specifications and empirical applications is a challenging task, and may lead to problems in project appraisal in terms of inaccuracies in the assessment of impacts. This paper discusses some key challenges we encountered with the specification of the Dutch SCGE model RAEM. This chapter is especially useful for researchers developing SCGE applications for use in transport appraisal and those who want to get a better understanding of differences between theoretical and computable SCGE modelling.     

舰船大风浪中航行最大允许航速计算模式研究

舰艇在大风浪中航行,当航向已定时如何确定最大允许航速是航海界关注的课题。本文采用CFD(计算流体力学)方法和耐波性理论相结合的新模式,分别研究了浪增阻、风增阻及螺旋桨推力损失的计算方法,给出了比较精确的舰艇大风浪航行时的船体负载。在此基础上,运用船—机—桨理论,解决了最大允许航速(轮转速)的求解问题。     

Seasonal and interannual variation of physical and biological processes during 1994–2001 in the Sea of Japan/East Sea: A three-dimensional physical–biogeochemical modeling study

A Pacific basin-wide physical–biogeochemical model has been used to investigate the seasonal and interannual variation of physical and biological fields with analyses focusing on the Sea of Japan/East Sea (JES). The physical model is based on the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS), and the biogeochemical model is based on the Carbon, Si(OH)₄, Nitrogen Ecosystem (CoSiNE) model. The coupled ROMS–CoSiNE model is forced with the daily air–sea fluxes derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis for the period of 1994 to 2001, and the model results are used to evaluate climate impact on nutrient transport in Mixed Layer Depth (MLD) and phytoplankton spring bloom dynamics in the JES.The model reproduces several key features of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface currents, which are consistent with the previous modeling and observational results in the JES. The calculated volume transports through the three major straits show that the Korea Strait (KS) dominates the inflow to the JES with 2.46 Sv annually, and the Tsugaru Strait (TS) and the Soya Strait (SS) are major outflows with 1.85 Sv and 0.64 Sv, respectively. Domain-averaged phytoplankton biomass in the JES reaches its spring peak 1.8 mmol N m^− 3 in May and shows a relatively weak autumn increase in November. Strong summer stratification and intense consumption of nitrate by phytoplankton during the spring result in very low nitrate concentration at the upper layer, which limits phytoplankton growth in the JES during the summer. On the other hand, the higher grazer abundance likely contributes to the strong suppression of phytoplankton biomass after the spring bloom in the JES. The model results show strong interannual variability of SST, nutrients, and phytoplankton biomass with sudden changes in 1998, which correspond to large-scale changes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Regional comparisons of interannual variations in springtime were made for the southern and northern JES. Variations of nutrients and phytoplankton biomass related to the PDO warm/cold phase changes were detected in both the southern and northern JES, and there were regional differences with respect to the mechanisms and timing. During the warm PDO, the nutrients integrated in the MLD increased in the south and decreased in the north in winter. Conversely, during the cold PDO, the nutrients integrated in the MLD decreased in the south and increased in the north. Wind divergence/convergence likely drives the differences in the southern and northern regions when northerly and northwesterly monsoon dominates in winter in the JES. Subjected to the nutrient change, the growth of phytoplankton biomass appears to be limited neither by nutrient nor by light consistently both in the southern and northern regions. Namely, the JES is at the transition zone of the lower trophic-level ecosystem between light-limited and nutrient-limited zones.