前海自贸区在国际高端航运服务业中心建设中面临的挑战

文中阐述了中国(广东)自由贸易试验区前海蛇口自贸片区成立的以来中央与地方层面给予的政策和在国际高端航运服务业中心建设中取得的成效。同时与国内其他自贸区以及香港进行对比分析,提出前海自贸区在建设国际高端航运服务业中心建设中在航运要素集聚、航运人才吸收和培养、与国际先进规则的对比、深港澳合作机制的强化四个方面面临的挑战。     

海南自由贸易港背景下航运新特征对海事管理的要求及对策研究

随着海南自由贸易港建设的深入推进,我国将在海南实施更加开放的航运政策,建立与国际接轨的国际船舶登记制度,海南航运业将呈现新的特征.作者对海南自由贸易港建设背景下海南航运进行了展望,分析了未来海事管理工作面临的新考验,并提出海事部门要强化自身建设,不断推进海事治理能力和治理体系现代化,以适应高速发展的航运经济.     

天津东疆保税港区建设自由贸易港区管理模式探究

为积极探索保税港区向自由贸易港区发展的有效途径,通过借鉴香港、荷兰、迪拜等国家和地区国际自由贸易区发展情况,运用比较方法,分析自由贸易港区发展趋势,对建立适合天津东疆保税港区科学发展的新型管理模式进行有益探讨。     

The growth and patterns of international trade

Over the last 40 years, there has been an unprecedented growth in trade amongst countries, and the growth in trade shows no sign of slowing down. The increases in trade have put tremendous pressure on the maritime and port industries, and these industries have responded with innovations, investment, and greater productivity. International trade and maritime trade are synonyms, and an understanding of the determinants of international trade is central to understanding maritime trade. In this paper, we provide a review of the international trade literature with a focus on the determinants of trade and the evolution of trade modeling. We then present a broad overview of the extent and growth of trade in the context of primary determinants. The basic results are: (1) Trade is growing at a phenomenal rate; (2) Trade is dominated by relatively few countries who tend to remain dominant; (3) While trade of all products is growing, there are large differences in the growth rates, but yet, there is stability in the relative sizes of product markets; and (4) Over the last 40 years, trade has changed from major flows between the US and Europe to major flows between Asia and the US.     

国际原油价格攀升对国际航运市场的影响

分析了影响国际原油价格的供需、金融和地缘政治三个因素,并预测未来原油价格仍将持续上涨.通过计量分析,国际原油价格每增长一个百分点,将导致世界GDP下降0.13％.按照2008年世界GDP的水准,将最终导致国际航运需求年均下降约2亿吨的需求量.而需求持续下降,导致航运市场供给大于需求.为了降低供给,减少原油成本,国际航运效率将大幅下降.     

Highly disaggregrated models of seaborne trade. An empirical model for bilateral dry-cargo trade flows in the World economy

The aim of this paper is to estimate an empirical model of bilateral dry-cargo seaborne import flows in the international economy. Seaborne trade elasticities are estimated for the first time, utilizing the Constant Ratio of Elasticities of Substitution Homogeneous/Homothetic (CRESH) function, a function very rarely used in the past. Highly disaggregated data on volumes of seaborne trade, published by the UN, distinguish between five types of cargo according to the type of ship used for its transportation, and 30 trading regions according to the major sea-lancs used by ships internationally. Multistage budgeting is employed to make the problem of estimation tractable. An empirical model for dry-bulk cargo is estimated based on the CRESH function. Estimation of bilateral export price elasticities enables comparison of the degree of competition in each import market over export regions, and amongst import markets themselves. Risk-averse ship owners may utilize such a comparison to operate in world shiplanes with low degree of competition.     

Impact of politics,economic events and port policies on the evolution of maritime traffic in Chinese ports

The Chinese government has been exploring various paths to find a direction that better suits China’s national conditions during the past 60 years. Meanwhile, a series of political and economic events and policy transformations have had different effects on the port industry. This article attempts to ascertain how these events and port policies have influenced Chinese port traffic through an empirical study on data covering 1952–2009. The findings suggest that foreign trade has been the prime driver of the throughput of Chinese ports. The increase in the ports’ throughput has enabled an increase in domestic demand and the urgent need for further port investment. Chinese port throughput has been subject to multiple shocks. The Great Leap Forward¹ is found to have had the largest, but only a short-term impact. China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, however, led to a longer and exclusive effect on ports, with little observed effect on the other variables. The reform of port governance is shown to have had a more lasting positive effect on port throughput than physical investment. However, these latter effects are minor, the economic and political factors remain the primary driving factors of port throughput.     

NAFTA and Canadian ports

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) signed by Canada, the U.S.A. and Mexico and which came into effect on 1 January 1994, is a significant move towards further integration of the North American economies. This paper examines the likely impact of NAFTA on Canadian ports. Three channels of impact are identified. First, there are direct impacts on trade flows between Canada and its North American trading partners. In this regard we find that ports do not typically handle the types of products that are likely to be affected by NAFTA, and so the direct impacts may be minimal. Second, and more significantly, port catchment areas are likely to undergo substantial changes as they respond to a more competitive environment within the free trade area. Third, the transportation sector has itself been included in NAFTA, and Canadian ports will face increased competition from land based transportation modes. We conclude that ports in Canada must learn to work more consciously as agents of regional economic development.     

Ranking of factors contributing to higher performance in the ocean transportation industry: a multi-attribute utility theory approach

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) signed by Canada, the U.S.A. and Mexico and which came into effect on 1 January 1994, is a significant move towards further integration of the North American economies. This paper examines the likely impact of NAFTA on Canadian ports. Three channels of impact are identified. First, there are direct impacts on trade flows between Canada and its North American trading partners. In this regard we find that ports do not typically handle the types of products that are likely to be affected by NAFTA, and so the direct impacts may be minimal. Second, and more significantly, port catchment areas are likely to undergo substantial changes as they respond to a more competitive environment within the free trade area. Third, the transportation sector has itself been included in NAFTA, and Canadian ports will face increased competition from land based transportation modes. We conclude that ports in Canada must learn to work more consciously as agents of regional economic development.     

第四代港口对中国港口建设的启示

旨在探讨第四代港口对中国港口建设的重要启示,以期为新形势下的中国港口建设提供理论支撑。基于前期研究及联合国贸发会的港口代际发展模型,研究并指出第四代港口是积极主动参与国际经贸决策和组织各类经济活动的前方调度总站,分析了第四代港口的主要特征及其对我国港口建设的重要启示。主要结论是：中国港口建设应大力发展和吸引陆向腹地物流,进一步加强国际航运中心建设以及优化港口布局。     

International trade in marine species: Is CITES a useful control mechanism?

Abstract

The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) was created to prevent species becoming threatened through international trade. It generally prohibits international commercial trade in seriously threatened species but permits trade in a regulated manner in species vulnerable to exploitation but not yet at risk of extinction. CITES covers comparatively few marine taxa, reflecting the fact that most marine species have much greater ranges and fecundity than terrestrial species and so are more resilient to exploitation. Exceptions are to be found in the higher vertebrates. Several marine mammals may have benefited from CITES controls, although their popular appeal, commercial importance, and extreme vulnerability have meant that other treaties and conservation activities have been adopted to control their exploitation. Marine turtles Cheloniidae and the estuarine crocodile (Crocodylus porosus) certainly have benefited from CITES controls. Many commercially important fishes and invertebrates are covered by international and regional fishery agreements; a few, with life histories making them particularly vulnerable to exploitation, are subject to CITES controls. The structure of CITES limits its utility as a conservation tool for marine species, but where other mechanisms fail or are absent, it plays a useful role, and it is particularly valuable as an international trade monitoring mechanism.     

Development of ocean carriers' behaviour model focusing on their 'cost and tariff' based on the spatial general equilibrium

Spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) theory has been applied to an international trade model to evaluate tariff and fiscal policies of a country. Those models can not be applied for the evaluation of transport policies such as port development and tax/subsidy policy against transportation sectors, since they do not deal with ocean freight and ocean carriers explicitly in the model. Ocean freight often varies with the changes of competitive conditions and/or demand/ supply balances in the short run, while it should reflect the actual expenditure of the carriers in the long run. The model proposed here considers the profit maximization behaviour of ocean carriers, and deals with ocean freight explicitly. The model is applied to four major economic regions; Japan, USA, EU and Asia. A multi-level function composed of the Cobb-Douglas function is adopted to produce reliable parameters of the production function for many industries.     

Development of ocean carriers' behaviour model focusing on their 'cost and tariff' based on the spatial general equilibrium

Spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) theory has been applied to an international trade model to evaluate tariff and fiscal policies of a country. Those models can not be applied for the evaluation of transport policies such as port development and tax/subsidy policy against transportation sectors, since they do not deal with ocean freight and ocean carriers explicitly in the model. Ocean freight often varies with the changes of competitive conditions and/or demand/ supply balances in the short run, while it should reflect the actual expenditure of the carriers in the long run. The model proposed here considers the profit maximization behaviour of ocean carriers, and deals with ocean freight explicitly. The model is applied to four major economic regions; Japan, USA, EU and Asia. A multi-level function composed of the Cobb-Douglas function is adopted to produce reliable parameters of the production function for many industries.     

Exchange rate changes and the cost competitiveness of international airlines: The Aviation Trade Weighted Index

Discussions of how changes in exchange rates impact on international airlines tend to be ambivalent. In this paper, it is shown that the relative cost competitiveness of an international airline will decline when there is an exchange rate appreciation in its home country - as will be the case for other tradable goods and services. The extent to which this happens depends on which countries the prices of the inputs are set in and also on which countries' airlines it is closely competing with. The impact is greater if there is an appreciation relative to those countries whose airlines the home airlines are closely competing with. In the trade literature, this is recognised in the Trade Weighted Index of exchange rates, which weights exchanges rates according to their importance in a country's trade flows. In this paper, an Airline Trade Weighted Index is developed - the weights for this index depend on airline traffic and revenues on routes to and from a country. The ATWI is calculated for Australian international airlines, and it indicates that there has been a significant loss of competitiveness in recent years, due to the appreciation of the Australian dollar relative to currencies of key airline competitor countries.     

海外来风

船级社关注12500TEU集装箱船,IMO将强制执行Ecdis,欧盟谋求扩张海上管辖权,美国船舶全面采用全新ERR防锈剂,IACS提前执行新涂层标准.[编者按]     

A static theory of dry bulk freight rates by route

Trade flows subjected to a major upheaval are followed by a reorganized freight rate structure. Rate functions developed under the old regime are unlikely to perform well because they are implicitly based on the circulation of tonnage which no longer applies, for example fronthauls and backhauls. A gravity-type static model capable of estimating route-specific rate levels from trade matrix data is developed and tested with historical data. The rates are in index form which makes it possible to integrate data from several ship size segments (large capesize, small capesize, panamax, handysize) and years.     

A static theory of dry bulk freight rates by route

Trade flows subjected to a major upheaval are followed by a reorganized freight rate structure. Rate functions developed under the old regime are unlikely to perform well because they are implicitly based on the circulation of tonnage which no longer applies, for example fronthauls and backhauls. A gravity-type static model capable of estimating route-specific rate levels from trade matrix data is developed and tested with historical data. The rates are in index form which makes it possible to integrate data from several ship size segments (large capesize, small capesize, panamax, handysize) and years.     

中国首艘VLCC缘定德黑兰

接近年底,世界经济复苏的声音不绝于耳,复苏的证据也在不断出现.然而,复苏之路却依然艰难而曲折.特别是,贸易保护主义再次抬头,并幻化成"绿色壁垒",对刚刚从危机中缓慢苏醒的世界经济和贸易形成了强烈冲击.那么,后危机时代的贸易壁垒将呈现出哪些特点? "中国制造"的出路何在?带着这些问题,本刊记者专访了中国国际贸易学会常务理事、清华大学中美关系研究中心周世俭高级研究员.     

青岛港前湾港区商检配套工程设计

介绍青岛港前湾港区商检配套工程的设计。国家商检机作为进出口贸易技术把关部门同海关一样具有重要的执法职能,商检配套工程的设计关键在于商检工艺的设计,商检工艺必须符合国际贸易惯例及贸易双方认可的有关标准。而进出口商检的取制样、检验方法又直接影响贸易纠纷的重要依据。