Real-time assessment and prediction on maritime risk state on the Arctic Route

ABSTRACT

Recently, the Arctic Route has become busier with the continuous melting of Arctic ice. However, navigation on the Arctic Route would be much more complex than in normal water as harsh environmental conditions, such as ice-covered water and scarce costal ports that may cause more uncertainty. Nowadays, with the rapid development of sensors on board, more related data has become available. Thus, implementing comprehensive Arctic maritime risk assessment is urgent and necessary in practice. This study proposes an Arctic maritime risk state assessment method including real-time risk state assessment and risk prediction. Specifically, real-time observation samples’ numerical risk state would be firstly obtained with projection pursuit method from 10 risk indicators. Due to the fuzzy uncertainty of single observation set, information diffusion would be applied to provide diffusion estimation on risk probability distribution in order to depict risk state precisely. Also, the accumulated distribution can be regarded as the risk prediction for next time slot and risk entropy is introduced to depict risk tendency directly. Case study based on ‘Yongsheng’ is conducted to demonstrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The findings can be useful for the operators and management on board during the Arctic voyage.     

在航船舶尾气无人机遥测技术研究与应用

为打好船舶大气污染防治攻坚战,落实交通运输部海事局"陆海空天"一体化海事监管体系建设方向,提升我国海洋、内河及环境情况复杂水域中在航船舶尾气监测的自动化水平,研究了小型化的船舶尾气嗅探传感器,利用无人机搭载嗅探传感器实时监测在航船舶尾气中的SO₂和CO₂浓度,依此反推船舶燃油的硫含量。选择对上海(排放控制区)关键水域的在航船舶开展实验测试,统计不同船长、不同水域的海船尾气监测结果,综合分析船舶的燃油行为,为海事执法提供新的技术手段;总结可推广应用船舶尾气遥测无人机先进技术监管模式,为我国船舶大气污染物排放控制区高效及精准监管树立样板。     

Economic feasibility of an NSR/SCR-combined container service on the Asia-Europe lane: a new approach dynamically considering sea ice extent

The trend towards global warming and the rapid decline in the extent of summer Arctic sea ice over recent years has increased the feasibility of international Arctic shipping. In this study we propose a seasonal NSR (North Sea Route)/SCR (Suez Canal Route)-combined shipping service linking Shanghai and Rotterdam, using the Northern Sea Route during the economical navigable window but using the traditional Suez Canal Route at other times. Different from the previous literatures, this paper dynamically considers the sea ice extent in the model, which is more reasonable for the assessment of Arctic container shipping, because fuel consumption is highly related to ship speed, while ship speed is determined by the relative distances of ice-covered and ice-free route stages. A new approach is developed to predict the time points at which the ship enters and exits the ice-covered stage, given that both the ship position and the extent of sea ice are constantly changing. The results show that the NSR/SCR-combined Arctic container service can be more economical than the SCR, given lower NSR tariffs.     

桥梁主通航孔施工期通航方案及保障措施

我国内河水域新建桥梁在对主墩进行施工过程中,为了确保船舶正常通航,海事部门要求实行单向通航。因此,主墩施工期间桥区水域可能出现船舶排队等候过桥的现象,船舶等候过桥势必增加桥区水域复杂的通航环境,目前海事部门规定桥区水域(单向通航)航行的船舶之间应保持足够的安全距离。通过建立数学计算模型对桥区水域(单向通航)通航船舶之间安全距离进行量化研究,探讨出桥区水域船舶之间安全距离计算方法。为海事部门制定桥区水域通航安全管理规定、维护桥区水域良好的通航秩序和船舶过桥安全提供科学的理论依据。     

基于AHP-云模型的混动船舶动力系统综合评估

日益严格的国际法规要求船舶运营需要良好的经济性、绝对的可靠性和满足要求的排放性.传统动力燃油船舶很难满足日益严格的国际海事法规要求,迫切需要改造或升级;混合动力船舶因具有优越的经济性、良好的可靠性及低排放性能够满足相关要求.针对混合动力船舶的技术参数,运用隶属云理论和AHP构建数学综合评估模型,对混合动力船舶动力系统的各种性能指标进行综合分析评判,比较得出最佳方案,为混合动力船舶动力装置的设计提供理论依据.     

Ship resistance when operating in floating ice floes: Derivation,validation, and application of an empirical equation

With the effects of global warming, the Arctic is presenting a new environment where numerous ice floes are floating on the open sea surface. Whilst this has improved Arctic shipping navigability in an unprecedented way, the interaction of such floes with ships is yet to be understood to aid the designing of ships and route planning for this region. To further explore this topic, the present work develops a procedure to derive an empirical equation that can predict the effects of such floes on ship resistance. Based on a validated computational approach, extensive data are extracted from simulations of three different ships with varying operational and environmental conditions. The ice-floe resistance is shown to strongly correlate with ship beam, ship buttock angle, ship waterline angle, ship speed, ice concentration, ice thickness and floe diameter, and the regression powers of each of the parameters on resistance are ascertained. This leads to a generic empirical equation that can swiftly predict ice-floe resistance for a given ship in a given condition. Subsequently, demonstrations are given on the incorporation of the derived equation into a set of real-time Arctic ship performance model and voyage planning tool, which can predict a ship's fuel consumption in ice-infested seas and dynamically suggest a route with the least safety concern and fuel consumption. Moreover, the equation is validated by providing ice resistance prediction for experimental and full-scale conditions from multiple sources, showing high accuracy. In conclusion, the empirical equation is shown to give valid and rapid estimates for ice-floe resistance, providing valuable insights into ship designs for the region, as well as facilitating practical applications for polar navigation.     

某公务船抗碰撞性能研究

公务船在领海和专属经济区执行维权执法任务时,存在较高的与其他船舶发生主动或被动碰撞的风险。为了准确评估公务船的耐撞性能,本文以某公务船为例,考虑多种计算工况,对目标船的耐撞性能进行动态响应计算,获得了机舱及首部区域的结构损伤、应力、能量吸收等动态结构响应,并计算获得被撞船达到临界状态时的极限撞击速度。研究成果可为公务船的防撞结构设计提供参考。     

The impact of the Polar Code on risk mitigation in Arctic waters: a “toolbox” for underwriters?

The existing risk weighing on vessel, crew and ecosystem in the Arctic and more globally in Polar waters promoted the adoption of the Polar Code (PC) early 2017, a mandatory international legal framework intended for enhanced safety and environmental protection. While the substance of the PC has been extensively analyzed, few studies have focused on the underlying relationships between the PC and underwriters. Based on an extensive literature review, documentary materials and interviews with insurance companies, this article conceptualizes the PC as a “toolbox” and analyzes how underwriters can exploit it in their work within the emerging Arctic market. The PC does not only regulate the navigation in Arctic waters in legal terms, but is also aimed at mitigating risks in the Polar areas through the identification of hazard sources and proceduralization of risk assessment. As a result we observe a certain “Polar Code paradox”. Even though the PC is a risk-based instrument and constitutes a key step for improving ship insurability, it has only limited capacity to assist underwriters in assessing risks and insuring vessels. Marine insurers still face a lack of data and high pending uncertainties leading them to exercise extreme caution with Arctic risks appraisal.     

沪通铁路长江大桥水域通航环境综合风险评价研究

通过对影响桥梁水域通航环境的因素综合分析,构建出桥梁水域通航风险评价指标体系,以模糊理论为基础,采用层次分析法(AHP)建立了桥梁水域通航环境综合风险评价模型,并利用该方法对沪通铁路长江大桥水域通航环境进行综合风险评价。通过综合风险评价的结果,可以充分掌握沪通铁路长江大桥水域通航环境的危险程度以及各项指标因素的危险状况,为海事管理部门改善桥梁水域的通航环境及通航管理提供科学的决策依据和参考。     

Shipping operations support in the “High North”: examining availability of icebreakers along the Northern Sea Route

A rather significant number of business entities already operate within (or, have considered to exploit) the Arctic region, focusing upon previously untapped resources such as precious minerals and large quantities of oil and gas; touristic and fishing activities are clearly on the rise, with various endeavors of maritime transport also being put forward. Up until recently, harsh year-long environmental conditions have significantly hindered the necessary access and transport connections in the Arctic. Even in the case that weather conditions did permit vessels’ passage, unreliable navigational aids and lack of infrastructure/support provided obstacles difficult to overcome. However, environmental data recorded during the last couple of decades clearly indicates that there is a continuous decline of ice coverage in the “High North.” Given this steady decline, the Arctic has now been viewed as a promising field for economic activities and is considered as a potential connecting corridor between Asia and Europe/America (and vice-versa). As human presence and operations are expected to intensify there, it is of utmost importance to evaluate the current level of support towards ships that will be crossing the region; capabilities in relation to search and rescue (SAR) operations and oil spill response are also important. The analysis in hand will first deliver a discussion of the so-called Arctic Passages. While various different maritime routes have been proposed in relation to the Arctic, the most promising one, the Northern Sea Route (NSR), will provide the epicenter of discussion. Through an extensive literature review that includes numerous internet resources, the current analysis will identify the numbers of icebreakers already operating in the NSR, as well as those that will be commissioned into service in the near future. The choice to research the specific type of vessels is supported by a simple argument: icebreakers currently are and will continue to be in the foreseeable future the main “tool” to support shipping activities in the Arctic. Furthermore, emergency management capabilities in the Russian Arctic will be examined to include the current state of rescue coordination centres along with the availability of SAR assets. Additionally, the efforts thus far by the Arctic Council to increase coordination and interaction among the States involved in Arctic affairs will be summarized; the latter will be achieved via a brief review of a very important legally binding agreement: the “search and rescue” instrument. In conclusion, the Russian State has already heavily invested in icebreakers’ building and their current number is fully capable to handle the present level of limited traffic. On the other hand, ships are currently faced with long distances to cross (often without adequate support) adverse environmental conditions, unpredictable hurdles, and slow response times in case of an emergency. Therefore, in case ships operating in the region are increased, it will be difficult to deal with all the additional demands for support. Of particular interest is the fact that considering the vast area of the NSR, the overall available response capabilities in the region under discussion are rather thin; any further increase of maritime traffic in the “High North” must be balanced with additional strengthening of emergency management capabilities. In any case, should the NSR become fully integrated in the global maritime transport system, Russia’s geopolitical status will be clearly improved and further research is needed to discuss the implications both at the regional and global levels.     

无人船在港口水域海事监管中的应用探讨

近年来,随着与船舶自主航行相关的信息技术、人工智能技术水平的提高,无人船舶行业取得了长足的发展,其在海上安保、环境监测等领域应用也越来越成熟。为推动无人船在海事管理方面的应用研究,破解港口水域海事监管手段不足的瓶颈问题,文中在分析港口水域海事监管特点和无人船系统建设条件的基础上,定量研究了无人船在港口水域海事监管应用面临的性能指标确定、船型平台选择、载荷设备搭配、运行管理体系建设等方面的具体问题,提出了一种港口水域海事监管无人船系统的应用解决方案。     

Analysis of ship drifting in a narrow channel using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data

With maritime transportation has played an important role in global economy development, ship traffic has become more congested. Therefore, ships navigate under risk conditions, and thus maritime accidents have occurred frequently. Especially, ship passing through a narrow channel is even more dangerous. Because, the ships are easy to be affected by external forces such as wind and currents that can cause ship drifts. Many latent risks are present during navigation. In order for the development of a sensible and appropriate traffic model for the safety and efficiency ship navigation, this study has focused on the actual ship behavior to understand the ship drift in the Kurushima Strait, Japan, which is one of the most dangerous routes in Japan. The analysis of ship behavior was carried out using the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. As a result, the ships drift was understood in detail, and the latent risk was unveiled when ships pass through the narrow route. Moreover, the risk areas were obtained and visualized by the ship drift behavior analysis. The obtained results can be applied to ensure safe navigation and the development of an eco-friendly and economy efficient for ship navigation.     

Structural design considerations for ships operating in arctic regions北大核心CSCD

冰脊和冰山与极地船体发生碰撞将影响船体结构安全,并决定船体结构设计载荷。船体结构设计应遵循基于风险的设计原则,通常涉及以下极限状态设计准则:1)服务极限状态(SLS);2)最终极限状态(ULS);3)疲劳极限状态(FLS);4)事故极限状态(ALS)。最终极限状态和事故极限状态对应于发生概率极低的船与冰脊作用以及冰山撞击事件,旨在确保船体结构不会完全损毁。然而,对于较低概率水平的冰载荷分析,需进行较大数据量的工况分析,计算耗时无法承受。为此,引入环境等值轮廓方法,来大幅减少冰载荷分析所需工况数量,并给出设计工况最有可能的冰体参数组合方式。结合最终极限状态和事故极限状态,举例说明这一方法的运用方式。环境等值轮廓方法可为现有极地船舶船体结构设计方法提供有效补充。     

我国北极通航瓶颈问题分析

随着全球气温变暖趋势的显现,北极通航问题日益受到各方面的关注但是要实施北极通航,必须对可能面,临的困难和问题有清楚的认识文中从法律法规、环境保护、船舶和航行奈件,以及船员培训和认证等方面,对中国实施北极通航可能存在的一些瓶颈问题作了初步分析,可为从事北极通航问题研究人员提供参考     

Survivability of an ocean patrol vessel – Analysis approach and uncertainty treatment

Military ocean patrol vessels (OPVs) are today an increasingly common type of naval ship. To facilitate the wide range of tasks with small crews, OPVs represent several ship design compromises between, for example, survivability, redundancy and technical endurance, and some of these compromises are new to military ships.The aim of this study is to examine how the design risk control-options in relation to survivability, redundancy and technical endurance can be linked to the operational risk in a patrol and surveillance scenario. The ship operation for a generic OPV, including the actions of the threat, is modelled with a Bayesian network describing the scenario and the dependency among different influences.The scenario is described with expert data collected from subject matter experts. The approach includes an analysis of uncertainty using Monte Carlo analysis and numerical derivative analysis.The results show that it is possible to link the performance of specific ship design features to the operational risk. Being able to propagate the epistemic uncertainties through the model is important to understand how the uncertainty in the input affects the output and the output uncertainty for the studied case is small relative to the input uncertainty. The study shows that linking different ship design features for aspects such as survivability, redundancy and technical endurance to the operational risk gives important information for the ship design decision-making process.     

极地航行法规与准则现状

受全球气候变暖的影响,两极冰融现象日益加剧.北极冰层的大面积融化促进了北极航线的开发,南极的冰雪美景也吸引了越来越多的游客乘船观光.本文针对极地航行的特殊性和挑战性,从极地安全航行和环境保护的角度出发,阐述了现行的极地水域国家相关的法律法规、国际公约、IMO和IACS等国际性组织出台的一系列规则和要求,并分析了IMO强制性《极地水域船舶作业国际规则》对船舶及海上人命安全和极地海洋环境保护的要求.     

我国沿海关键水域设定分道的认识和探讨

我国沿海船舶活动频繁且通航密度大、航线设计交汇叠加、会遇局面频繁发生、船舶交通事故及险情多发,在这样的航路上,规划和设立分道是目前最有效的方式.文中就沿海关键水域设定分道通航进行了探讨,以期优化我国沿岸航行船舶航路,努力减少我国沿海的航行风险.     

船舶大风浪航行风险等级评估

船舶在风浪中航行所承受的不利影响包括14项风险因素.在此基础上探讨了船舶在三维非规则波中,基于方向谱的六自由度摇荡及动力响应风险因素统计特征值的计算方法;并介绍了稳性、强度和操纵性风险因素的计算模型;对实船的计算结果表明了模型的有效性.提出了基于FSA(Formal Safty Assessment)的模糊综合评判方法的船舶航行风险等级评估模型,可供航运公司和海事部门实施在航船舶风浪航行风险预报参照.     

基于SAR的深远海船舶动态感知技术应用展望

针对现有技术手段对深远海区域船舶动态感知能力不足的问题,分析了基于SAR的深远海船舶动态感知技术实现深远海船舶动态监控的可能性,并对海事应用场景进行了初步研究,认为该技术可用于大区域深远海船舶交通态势分析、深远海遇险船舶定位及应急指挥、海事日常空中主动巡航监管,可作为海事系统技术体系的一个重要组成部分"陆海空天"一体化...     

大风浪中船舶航行安全性评价

从船舶在波浪中运动的机理出发，将模糊数学中的层次分析法理论用到大风浪中船舶航行安全性评估上来，开发了相应的计算程序。寻找到了船舶在波浪中航行时的安全航态范围和在某一航速(或航向)时的最佳航向(或航速)，形成了一套“理论航法”，使得驾驶员在操纵船舶时能够得到有效的指导。