Key criteria influencing the choice of Arctic shipping: a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model

As Arctic sea ice shrinks due to global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP) offer a substantial reduction in shipping distance between Asia and the European and North American continents, respectively, when compared to conventional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Arctic shipping routes have many problems associated with their use. The main objective of this paper is to identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. A multi-criteria decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank four potential categories of criteria (‘economic’, ‘technical’, ‘political’ and ‘safety’ factors) and their sub-criteria.

The results of the analysis suggest that, on aggregate, ‘economic’ is the most important category of influential factors, followed by ‘safety’, ‘technical’ and ‘political’ factors. The paper concludes, however, that the most influential specific sub-criteria relate to risks that lie mainly within the ‘safety’ and ‘political’ domains and that, especially in combination, these overwhelm the importance which is attached to ‘economic’ factors such as reduced fuel use. Finally, the implications of these findings for the future development of Arctic shipping are addressed at a strategic level.     

Incremental costs for reduction of air pollution from ships: a case study on North European emission control area

In addition to sulphur oxides control, the North and the Baltic Seas have recently been designated as nitrogen oxides control area. Amidst ongoing developments in energy markets and international trade, shipowners have to develop cost-efficient strategies to comply with the new regulation. This study creates and tests a model calculating the incremental costs of abating NO_x and SO_x emissions under MARPOL Annex VI regulations for the following methods: SCR, HAM and internal engine modifications, marine gas oil, wet scrubbers, and liquefied natural gas propulsion. The model is tested empirically on a broad sample of 244 ships from the Swedish Commercial Fleet database for different operating contexts and fuel prices. Individual ship emission reductions and incremental abatement costs are calculated and the results are presented for the entire studied sample and per ship type class.

The study also explores the sensitivity of the chosen abatement methods to cost determinants and to main engine time operation under the light of economic performance and cost-efficiency. The results of the study aim to contribute to company abatement strategy.     

Relationship between phytoplankton bloom and wind stress in the sub-polar frontal area of the Japan/East Sea

The seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton blooms in the central Japan/East Sea (JES) show pronounced year-to-year variability based on Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS; 19972003) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Terra (20002003) observations. Wind seems to strongly influence this variability. To study the relationship between wind and bloom initiation, we analyzed daily, remotely sensed wind stress data (Active Microwave Instrument–wind [AMI–wind], NASA Scatterometer [NSCAT], and Quick Scatterometer [QuickSCAT]: 19972003) and daily chlorophyll concentrations based on ocean color data (SeaWiFS and MODIS). The results agreed well with the hypotheses; in spring, blooms began 615 days after wind stress weakened. Fall blooms started 39 days after wind strengthened. We also simulated seasonal changes using a simple light–nutrient model using two values for the respiration ratio: 10% and 20%. The use of 20% seemed to reproduce the timing of the spring bloom quite well but underestimated the absolute level of chlorophyll concentration. On the other hand, using 10% produced a better estimation of the chlorophyll concentration but failed to match the timing. Neither of the model runs reproduced the timing of the fall bloom well.     

A dense water outflow from the Ross Sea, Antarctica: Mixing and the contribution of tides

We use hydrographic, current, and microstructure measurements, and tide-forced ocean models, to estimate benthic and interfacial mixing impacting the evolution of a bottom-trapped outflow of dense shelf water from the Drygalski Trough in the northwestern Ross Sea. During summer 2003 an energetic outflow was observed from the outer shelf ( 500 m isobath) to the  1600 m isobath on the continental slope. Outflow thickness was as great as  200 m, and mean speeds were  0.6 m s^− 1 relative to background currents exceeding  1 m s^− 1 that were primarily tidal in origin. No outflow was detected on the slope in winter 2004, although a thin layer of dense shelf water was present on the outer shelf. When the outflow was well-developed, the estimated benthic stress was of order one Pascal and the bulk Froude number over the upper slope exceeded one. Diapycnal scalar diffusivity (K_z) values in the transition region at the top of the outflow, estimated from Thorpe-scale analysis of potential density and measurements of microscale temperature gradient from sensors attached to the CTD rosette, were of order 10^− 3−10^− 2 m² s^− 1. For two cases where the upper outflow boundary was particularly sharply defined, entrainment rate w_e was estimated from K_z and bulk outflow parameters to be  10^− 3 m s^− 1 ( 100 m day^− 1). A tide-forced, three-dimensional primitive equation ocean model with Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme for diapycnal mixing yields results consistent with a significant tidal role in mixing associated with benthic stress and shear within the stratified ocean interior.     

A trace metal (Pb, Cd, Zn, Cu) balance for surface waters in the eastern Gotland Basin, Baltic Sea

Trace metal inventories and transboundary fluxes were estimated for the surface waters of the eastern Gotland Basin, and a mass balance for this water body was derived.The study area was delineated by a box which bordered vertically by the sea surface and the halocline and horizontally by the coast of Gotland and the coast of Latvia/Lithuania. For the calculation of the trace metal inventories in the box, a high-resolution sampling was carried out during different seasons. Additional sediment trap studies were performed to calculate the vertical particulate trace metal fluxes through the halocline.The following transboundary fluxes have been estimated: (a) atmospheric input of trace metals; (b) lateral transport from adjacent bodies of surface water; (c) diapycnal fluxes of dissolved trace metals at the halocline; (d) sinking of trace metals, associated with particles, through the halocline, (e) vertical advection through the halocline.The lateral transport into and out of the surface box is important for the metals (Cd, Cu, Zn) with “nutrient-like” behaviour. For particle reactive elements like lead, vertical sedimentation and lateral transport out of the box as much as atmospheric input and lateral input into the box are in the same order of magnitude. Turbulent diapycnal mixing plays a minor role compared to the advective fluxes.The estimated range for the residence times for the region under investigation are  0.5–1.3 years for Pb;  2–11 years for Zn,  7–36 years for Cd and 42–89 years for Cu. This demonstrates that the system reacts very fast for particle reactive elements like Pb, while for copper sedimentation processes are not the preferential sink and can be neglected.     

Research trends and agenda on the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative with a focus on maritime transport

The ‘Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road’ (collectively known as Belt and Road, B&R) has been initiated by the Chinese government in 2013. The B&R is increasingly becoming a focal point for socio-economic–political interests because of its likely impact on land and sea transport and maritime logistics. The aims of this study were threefold: first, to provide an overview on the B&R, focusing on its key structural elements, such as transport corridors, city clusters, dry ports, infrastructure, zoning, and area development; second, to identify the expected impacts of the B&R on trade and implications on structural changes in transportation systems, port networks, and international logistics. Finally, to discuss major research trends and setting up of research agenda which will contribute to enriching the existing literature and shaping the global trade operations and drive economic growth in the context of the B&R.     

The Gulf Stream, rings and North Atlantic eddy structures from remote sensing (Altimeter and SeaWiFS)

Seasonal SeaWiFS chlorophyll a concentrations cycles and annual changes of altimeter Sea Level Anomaly are derived for the subtropical North Atlantic near  35°N and along a Gulf Stream axis. Spatial structure of SeaWiFS, is defined in terms of deviations from a local seasonal cycle and examined in relation to altimeter eddy structure. In the subtropical region near 35°N, SeaWiFS structure is evident during the spring bloom period with a scale of  430 km, or about twice the eddy scale. A Gulf Stream axis has been selected as a region where the Sea Level Anomaly variance is a maximum. Eddy propagation speeds and scales are examined. Cold-core (cyclonic) rings correspond to areas of high SeaWiFS chlorophyll a. Warm-core (anticyclonic) rings relate to areas of low chlorophyll concentration. Both SeaWiFS structure and eddy structure have a spatial scale of  450 km or twice the ring scale along the Gulf Stream axis. SeaWiFS chlorophyll anomalies and Altimeter Sea Level Anomaly structure have an overall negative correlation coefficient of r = − 0.34. Swirl currents between eddies redistribute surface chlorophyll concentrations and can spatially bias maximum and minimum concentration levels off eddy centre.     

The interaction of tidal advection, diffusion and mussel filtration in a tidal channel

Time series measurements of flow and pigment concentrations (Chl) in the Menai Strait have revealed that the strong residual flow in a tidal channel ( 500 m³ s^− 1) transports phytoplankton from the open sea into the channel where much of it is consumed by suspension feeders, mainly in commercial beds of Mytilus edulis. The progressive depletion of phytoplankton along the channel results in a strong horizontal gradient of plankton and hence Chl. Tidal displacement of this gradient causes large (± 50% of mean) oscillations of Chl in the vicinity of the mussel beds. Vertical mixing by the strong tidal flows is sufficiently vigorous for most of the tidal cycle to ensure that downward diffusion can resupply the near-bed layer although there are indications of some transient depletion around slack water.This paradigm of the interaction of advection, diffusion and filtration determining the distribution of plankton and its supply to mussels has been encapsulated in a series of simple models forced only by boundary values. In the first, a 1-D model of tidal flow in the channel reproduces the principal features of the observed currents including the unusually large spatial change in phase of the currents and the variation of the residual transport with tidal range. The flow field from this physical model is used to drive a second model based on the advection diffusion equation for Chl with a source at the Irish Sea boundary and a sink over the mussel bed. This model illustrates the formation of a strong Chl gradient along the channel and simulates the amplitude and phase of the M₂ oscillations of Chl and the development of the M₄ variation apparent in the observations. This second model has been extended to 2-D over the mussel beds to allow investigation of the effects of water column mixing. The model indicates that only for a short period ( 30 min), close to slack water, is mixing sufficiently reduced to permit the development of a depletion boundary layer and then only within  1 m from the bottom, a result which is consistent with the observations.     

Designing Coastal Management Strategies for Populations with Distinct Needs: The Case of Learning Disabilities

The Disability Discrimination Act (1995, amended 2005), Equality Act (2010 Equality Act. 2010. Equality Act. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2010/15/contents#openingWholeMod (accessed May 17, 2012) [Google Scholar]), EU Disability Action Plan (2003 –2010), and EU Disability Strategy (2010–2020) were designed to make equal opportunities a “reality.” As 16% of the EU population, is statutorily disabled there are considerable implications for beach management. Research examples of beach users include swimmers, anglers, etc. - but rarely people with learning disabilities (LD). This paper considered beach users with LD and their appreciation of three different coastal classifications in South Wales. Because of their disabilities, the research applied a participatory photo interpretation methodology (photovoice). A comparison of the LD ranking of beach issues was made with rankings provided by the general public at the same beaches. Results demonstrated some similarities between LD and general public coastal needs, but identified the need for specific considerations to be made by beach managers for LD users, including informed self-advocacy, use/application of signage, instructive access and a requirement for baseline information gathering. The research proposes an integrated coastal access model from which coastal management/gatekeepers can consider LD needs within coastal strategies. Finally, findings highlight the use of photovoice in coastal research projects and the need for innovative methodological considerations when researching certain groups.     

2 kHz high power smart transducer for acoustic sub-bottom profiling applications

In this study,a 2kHz Tonpilz projector was designed using a Terfenol-D and modeled in ATILA.For the purpose of modeling studies,it has been determined that a radiating head mass exhibits better transmitting current response（TCR） at 136 mm diameter,where the resonance occurs at 2.4kHz and the peak value of 118 dB re 1 μPa/A at 1 m occurs at 12 kHz.Also bolt at a 46mm distance from the center of the head mass offers resonance at 2.4kHz,and the peak value of 115.3 dB re 1 μPa/A at 1m occurs at 11.5kHz.This optimized design is fabricated and molded with polyurethane of 3mm thickness.The prototype was tested at the Acoustic Test Facility（ATF） of National Institute of Ocean Technology（NIOT） for its underwater performances.Based on the result,the fundamental resonance was determined to be 2.18kHz and the peak value of TCR of 182 dB re 1 μPa/A at 1m occurs at 14 kHz.The maximum value of the RS was found to be -190 dB re 1V/μPa at 1m at a frequency of 2.1kHz.     

Mixing in the surface boundary layer of a tropical freshwater reservoir

A combined observational-modeling study was conducted to investigate turbulence mixing, and the relation to surface forcing, in the surface boundary layer (SBL) of a tropical, high-altitude, freshwater reservoir. A suite of vertical profiles of temperature microstructure, collected at three different stations of one-day duration each, provided estimates of dissipation rates of turbulence kinetic energy, , and temperature variance, χ. Numerical simulations of and χ, using state-of-the-art, public domain, two-equation turbulence closure models, compared favorably with the observations and reproduced the dynamics of daytime wind mixing as well as the vertical and temporal turbulence structure during nighttime convective conditions.Two independent estimates of vertical eddy diffusivities in the stably stratified (daytime) SBL, computed from the microstructure measurements, agreed closely, and the near surface heat and buoyancy fluxes, computed from the diffusivities, were similar to those computed independently from surface meteorology. Model generated eddy diffusivities agreed closely with the observed values, except those generated by K profile parameterization (KPP) model simulations. The good agreement provides confidence that nutrient fluxes in the SBL may be accurately computed from the models when forced with regularly measured surface meteorological parameters. The consequences are important for estimation of daily primary productivity rates in the euphotic zone and the ability to predict algal blooms such as those observed in the present reservoir.     

Estimation of TKE dissipation rates in dense bottom plumes using a Pulse Coherent Acoustic Doppler Profiler (PC-ADP) — Structure function approach

During a hydrographic survey in January 2006 the spreading of inflowing saline water was observed in the Arkona Basin (Western Baltic Sea). Two bottom mounted ‘pulse coherent’ acoustic Doppler profilers (PC-ADP) were used to measure the near-bottom current field of the dense plume with a high temporal (1 s) and spatial resolution (5 cm). In order to estimate the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy () a structure function approach was applied to the beam velocity data. Simultaneous measurements with a microstructure shear profiler (MSS) and an acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV) supplied independent data for the verification of the structure function method. Additional measurements with standard CTD, near-bottom towed and vessel mounted acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCP) completed the data set.The estimated dissipation rates from the structure function approach fit well with the values derived from the ADV and the MSS probe. It is shown that the structure function approach is a reliable and easily applicable method to derive estimates of TKE dissipation rates from PC-ADP beam velocities. The observed dissipation rates ranged between 5 · 10^− 6 and 1 · 10^− 8 W kg^− 1 depending on the hydrographic conditions. Inside the plume the dissipation rates exceeded that of the overlaying brackish water by two orders of magnitude. Since the noise level of velocity data in pulse coherent mode is considerably lower than in the Doppler mode the PC-ADP can also be used for estimates in marine environments with low turbulence level. Reynolds stresses estimated from the PC-ADP and the ADV agreed well at the same depth level. TKE production derived from PC-ADP measurements compared reasonably well with the dissipation rate of TKE in a varying environment.