基于EDI的集装箱运价指数生成与技术分析

为克服目前集装箱运价指数计算中所存在的抽样信息不全面和干扰信息过多等缺陷,通过采用港航电子数据交换(EDI)源信息来生成集装箱运价指数,并展开相应的技术分析。研究表明:这一途径是可行的。     

Seasonality patterns in the container shipping freight rate market

Shipping indexes have attracted many researchers because they reflect the overall trend of corresponding seaborne markets and can provide implications for the future. Apart from the Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI) and correlated indices, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has been gaining more attention. As a country with large-scale manufacturing, China is an important exporting country and the CCFI was chosen to reflect the container shipping market because the data are more convincing and representative. There have been no systematic attempts to understand the seasonality patterns of container freights. Seasonality patterns reveal the regular fluctuation patterns within a 1-year period. They exist in time series, which are observed more than once a year, like the CCFI. To investigate the nature of seasonality (stochastic and/or deterministic) in container freight rates across different line services, we analyze the CCFI. This paper uses the HEGY method and Monte Carlo method comprehensively to figure out the small sample problem. In addition, seasonal dummy variables are used to test deterministic seasonality. Except for the Japan service series, which contains a half-year unit root, the other container freight rates seem to only involve a non-seasonal unit root at the zero frequency. Deterministic seasonality exists in all the line service series. Furthermore, the seasonality depends on the balance between supply and demand. Under this premise, the seasonal law of freight rates is much obvious.     

The study on the compilation of the China container freight index

Although there exists many kinds of shipping freight indexes, the compilation of a container freight index is still not shown. As such, this paper has taken a further study on the compilation of the China container freight index, which includes selection of calculation formula, determination of freight type, the choice of samples of shipping lines and rules of revision of the index.     

The study on the compilation of the China container freight index

Although there exists many kinds of shipping freight indexes, the compilation of a container freight index is still not shown. As such, this paper has taken a further study on the compilation of the China container freight index, which includes selection of calculation formula, determination of freight type, the choice of samples of shipping lines and rules of revision of the index.     

Modelling cyclic container freight index using system dynamics

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the cyclical nature of container shipping market represented by a containerized freight index and proposes a predictive cyclical model of the market. In contrast to the traditional spectral analysis (univariate), system dynamics reflect the drivers of the market in both supply and demand side, and therefore, it is a multi-variate system equilibrium approach consisting of various causal spillovers from sub-components of the market. This study is the first to analyze the cycle of container market using system dynamics. By utilizing system dynamics cyclicality approach, one-step ahead predictions are generated for monthly containerized freight index and compared to conventional benchmarks for post-sample validation. Our study can also help policymakers and shipping liners for better management and invest timing of container ship.     

An econometric analysis for container shipping market

This article presents an econometric analysis for the fluctuation of the container freight rate due to the interactions between the demand for container transportation services and the container fleet capacity. The demand is derived from international trade and is assumed to be exogenous, while the fleet capacity increases with new orders made two years before, proportional to the industrial profit. Assuming the market clears each year, the shipping freight rate will change with the relative magnitude of shifts in the demand and fleet capacity.

This model is estimated using the world container shipping market statistics from 1980 to 2008, applying the three-stage least square method. The estimated parameters of the model have high statistical significance, and the overall explanatory power of the model is above 90%. The short-term in-sample prediction of the model can largely replicate the container shipping market fluctuation in terms of the fleet size dynamics and the freight rate fluctuation in the past 20 years. The prediction of the future market trend reveals that the container freight rate should continue to decrease in the coming three years if the demand for container transportation services grows at less than 8%.     

国际货运代理业应当尽快实施收益管理

收益管理作为一项先进的管理技术,在国际货运代理业尚未得到充分应用。现以国际货运代理业中最重要的业务之一——国际集装箱运输代理业务为例,探讨国际货运代理业可否实行收益管理,并从可行性、必要性和紧迫性等三个方面,进行较为详细的分析和论述,得出国际货运代理业开展收益管理不仅是可行的,而且是十分必要的,同时也是急待实施的结论,从而为国际货运代理业实施收益管理提供理论支持。     

The impact of dry port operations on container seaports competitiveness

The concepts of intermodal logistics and distribution networks have made integration of the inland freight distribution system essential for an efficient container seaport system. Inland components, such as dry ports, which exist within the seaport system, have become important in shaping the performance and competitive strategies of container seaports. Owing to the importance of interdependence between dry ports and container seaports, this paper aims to investigate the impact of dry port operations on container seaport competitiveness. It conducted an empirical study in Malaysia through 120 online surveys to key stakeholders of dry ports, including freight forwarders, shippers, seaports, rail operator, shipping lines, and haulers. The data collected were analysed using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). The results from EFA show that Malaysian dry port operations have impacts on seaport competitiveness. These include enhancing seaport performance, increasing service variations for seaports, improving seaport-hinterland proximity, increasing seaport trade volume, and enhancing seaport capacity.     

Return lead–lag and volatility transmission in shipping freight markets

This study investigates the return lead–lag and volatility transmission between dry bulk shipping and container shipping freight markets over the period before, during and after the 2008 financial tsunami. Both cointegration analysis and the Granger causality test are applied to explore the lead–lag relationship between the Baltic dry index (BDI) and the China containerized freight index (CCFI). Besides, in the study we employed GARCH–BEKK model, which allows for transmission in freight volatility. On the whole, the empirical results show that the BDI reflects the economic climate earlier than the CCFI during the financial tsunami, whereas the CCFI leads the BDI after the financial tsunami. The price formation hypothesis could well explain the relationship. Moreover, volatility spillovers are found in most subperiods. The dynamics of the conditional volatilities differ, but causality links in the variance are found to be strong and bidirectional in normal periods, and unidirectional during the financial tsunami. Therefore, the occurrence of the financial tsunami could be regarded as an interference factor.     

Cost analysis of bulk cargo containerization

ABSTRACT

Bulk cargo containerization (BCC) involves changes in the transportation mode of container shipping for cargo that uses bulk carriers without packing. This topic has recently attracted considerable attention as an alternative transportation method for container cargo. BCC is advantageous because it can address imbalances in the amount of cargo conveyed between the main and back hauls, thereby improving efficiency. A previous survey among companies involved in cargo shipping revealed that in addition to ocean freight, vanning and devanning, and customs clearance costs, consignees’ decisions were the key factor in selecting transport modes. The present study aims to clarify the cost competitiveness of container shipping and identify cost reductions that may increase the use of BCC. To quantitatively check the results of the survey employed in this study, we constructed a model based on consignees’ and container shipping companies’ costs to determine the choice of transport mode for back-haul trade, then examined the incentives for consignees and shipping companies. We found that BCC can be realized by cost reduction on the part of the consignee and profit improvement on the part of the container shipping company for some routes and goods. Although reducing the freight rate would effectively promote BCC, reducing other costs would not have the same effect.     

国际集装箱运价管理机制的探讨——兼论运价报备制度实施的作用与实质

通过对试行的运价报备制度的作用与实质的分析提出了在目前国际集装箱运输市场以运价报备制度作为运价管理模式是合适的。运价报备制度比传统的各种运价管理模式刚性小、易于被业界各方接受,又可以作为国家宏观管理的一种政策手段,为长期稳定集装箱运价起到积极的作用,在目前运价全面放开的市场背景下还可以作为一种新运价管理模式。     

集装箱货运仿真模型在珠三角港港口投资方案评估(英文)

In the Pearl River Delta (PRD), there is severe competition between container ports, particularly those in Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, for collecting international maritime container cargo. In addition, the second phase of the Nansha terminal in Guangzhou’s port and the first phase of the Da Chang Bay container terminal in Shenzhen opened last year. Under these circumstances, there is an increasing need to quantitatively measure the impact these infrastructure investments have on regional cargo flows. The analysis should include the effects of container terminal construction, berth deepening, and access road construction. The authors have been developing a model for international cargo simulation (MICS) which can simulate the movement of cargo. The volume of origin-destination (OD) container cargo in the East Asian region was used as an input, in order to evaluate the effects of international freight transportation policies. This paper focuses on the PRD area and, by incorporating a more detailed network, evaluates the impact of several infrastructure investment projects on freight movement.     

长三角港口体系结构演变及分货种优势比较

以长三角区域港口为研究对象,采用赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数分析2005—2009年长三角港口的平均集中率和分货种港口的空间集中度,然后从各港口的显示性比较优势和绝对比较优势揭示了各货种在长三角港口内部的转移情况,最后得出在长三角港口体系中,各货种集中程度呈现下降的趋势,集中化程度由高到低依次是:集装箱,石油,天然气及其制品,金属矿石,矿建材料,煤炭。同时上海港集装箱集聚效应加强,散货方面则呈现上海港向周边港口快速扩散、浙江省以宁波-舟山港为龙头集聚效应进一步加强、江苏港口承接转移的同时自身港口结构同步升级调整的特点。     

Modelling forward freight rate dynamics—empirical evidence from time charter rates

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics of forward freight rate dynamics. We specify our model in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework. This model was originally developed for interest rate markets and, in subsequent work, the model has been applied to various commodity markets. We analyse ten years of weekly time charter (TC) rates for a Panamax 65,000 dwt bulk carrier. Our data set consists of 6-, 12- and 36-month TC rates. We use this data to construct, each day, a forward rate function using a smoothing algorithm. We use the smooth data to investigate the factors governing the dynamics of the forward freight rate curve. We find a strange volatility structure in the data. Out results show that the volatility of the forward curve is bumped, with volatility reaching a peak for freight rates with roughly one year to maturity. Also, correlations between different parts of the term structure are in general low and even negative.     

Voyage-based statistical fuel consumption models of ocean-going container ships in Korea

ABSTRACT

Accurately estimating fuel consumption of ships is crucial for shipping companies, port authorities, and environmental protection agencies. The bottom-up approach is becoming increasingly popular because it can estimate ship fuel consumption by accounting for ship activity conditions, such as changes in voyage speed, time, and distance; however, its use is still limited when estimating ship fuel consumption. Ship-specific information, such as the daily fuel consumption rate for main and auxiliary engines for every vessel, is expensive to gather, and generally not collected from private shipping companies. To address this research gap, we develop simplified and composite ship fuel consumption models for ocean-going container ships by size using a regression model. To estimate the fuel consumption models for container ships, we rely on ship activity data, including average speed and sailing time, distance, and actual fuel consumption for main and auxiliary engines. This information is obtained from a major container shipping company in Korea. We estimate and validate the parameters associated with fuel consumption for five different container ship sizes, all of which are smaller than the Post-Panamax container ship (15,000 TEU and above).     

Modelling forward freight rate dynamics—empirical evidence from time charter rates

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics of forward freight rate dynamics. We specify our model in a Heath–Jarrow–Morton framework. This model was originally developed for interest rate markets and, in subsequent work, the model has been applied to various commodity markets. We analyse ten years of weekly time charter (TC) rates for a Panamax 65,000?dwt bulk carrier. Our data set consists of 6-, 12- and 36-month TC rates. We use this data to construct, each day, a forward rate function using a smoothing algorithm. We use the smooth data to investigate the factors governing the dynamics of the forward freight rate curve. We find a strange volatility structure in the data. Out results show that the volatility of the forward curve is bumped, with volatility reaching a peak for freight rates with roughly one year to maturity. Also, correlations between different parts of the term structure are in general low and even negative.     

上海港东北亚战略和国际化战略的实施

全球国际集装箱运输的发展,给上海港的发展带来了机遇与挑战.上海港提出的东北亚战略和国际化战略,就是要依托上海港口的优势,为客户提供港口装卸两端延伸物流服务,从而充分利用港口物流资源,将上海港建成东北亚地区的集装箱枢纽港;同时,发展腹地,走向国际,以国际物流为重点,以综合运输网和信息网为支持,加速现代化国际型全功能的、世界一流的国际航运中心的建设.     

基于AIS大数据耦合分析的沿海港口泊位利用率研究*

针对我国沿海港口能力供给水平数据跟踪方面长期存在的时效性差、人为统计过程中易出现错漏等诸多问题,分析传统泊位通过能力统计失真的具体原因,提出将泊位利用率作为评价港口服务水平的表征指标,依托地理信息系统(GIS)平台和基于船舶自动识别系统(AIS)等数据耦合的空间拓扑分析,综合考虑空间关系、航速特征、经留时间等影响因素,研发基于AIS大数据的泊位利用率算法模型,并以上海港2019年集装箱泊位利用率为例进行算法验证。结果表明,所提出的泊位利用率算法模型是可信的;提供了一种能够反映客观实际、定量分析判断港口服务水平的技术手段,可为政府部门长期动态监测港口能力与运输需求互动平衡关系,支撑政府部门决策港口发展重点和建设时序,避免空间资源浪费、重复建设、能力过剩等问题提供技术支撑。     

集装箱平均货物重量的取值问题

集装箱平均货物重量是设计计算集装箱码头、铁路和公路集装箱场站拆装箱库容量的重要参数。本文介绍在制定《内河集装箱码头工艺设计规范》过程中 ,确定集装箱平均货物重量取值范围的方法。