The determinants of long distance travel in Great Britain

This study analyses of the determinants of long distance travel in Great Britain using data from the 1995-2006 National Travel Surveys (NTSs). The main objective is to determine the effects of socio-economic, demographic and geographic factors on long distance travel. The estimated models express the distance travelled for long distance journeys as a function of income, gender, age, employment status, household characteristics, area of residence, size of municipality, type of residence and length of time living in the area. A time trend is also included to capture common changes in long distance travel over time not included in the explanatory variables. Separate models are estimated for total travel, travel by each of four modes (car, rail, coach and air), travel by five purposes (business, commuting, leisure, holiday and visiting friends and relatives (VFRs)) and two journey lengths (<150 miles and 150+ miles one way), as well as the 35 mode-purpose-distance combinations.The results show that long distance travel is strongly related to income: air is most income-elastic, followed by rail, car and finally coach. This is the case for most journey purposes and distance bands. Notable is the substantial difference in income elasticities for rail for business/commuting as opposed to holiday/leisure/VFR. In addition, the income elasticity for coach travel is very low, and zero for the majority of purpose-distance bands, suggesting coach travel to be an inferior mode in comparison to car, rail and air. Regarding journey distance, we find that longer distance journeys are more income elastic than shorter journeys.For total long distance travel, the study indicates that women travel less than men, the elderly less than younger people, the employed and students more than others, those in one adult households more than those in larger households and those in households with children less than those without. Long distance travel is also lowest for individuals living in London and greatest for those in the South West, and increases as the size of the municipality declines.     

Volatility of car ownership, commuting mode and time in the UK

This paper has two objectives: to examine the volatility of travel behaviour over time and consider the factors explaining this volatility; and to estimate the factors determining car ownership and commuting by car. The analysis is based on observations of individuals and households over a period of up to 11 years obtained from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). Changes in car ownership, commuting mode and commuting time over a period of years for the same individuals/households are examined to determine the extent to which these change from year-to-year. This volatility of individual behaviour is a measure of the ease of change or adaptation. If behaviour changes easily, policy measures are likely to have a stronger and more rapid effect than if there is more resistance to change. The changes are “explained” in terms of factors such as moving house, changing job and employment status. The factors determining car ownership and commuting by car are analysed using a dynamic panel-data models.     

The effect of prices and income on car travel in the UK

The objective of this paper is to analyse the factors determining household car travel, and specifically the effects of household income and the prices of cars and motor fuels, and to explore the intertemporal pattern of adjustment. The question of asymmetry in the response to rising and falling income is also addressed. Such asymmetry may be caused by habit or resistance to change or the tendency to acquire habits to consume more easily than to abandon them. The impact of prices, the speed of adjustment and the resistance to change will be important in determining the possibility of influencing travel behaviour and specifically car use. The study utilises repeated cross-section data from the annual UK Family Expenditure Surveys and employs a pseudo-panel methodology. The results are compared with those for car ownership estimated on the basis of similar models.     

Integrating parking behaviour in activity-based travel demand modelling: Investigation of the relationship between parking type choice and activity scheduling process

Traditionally, the parking choice/option is considered to be an important factor in only in the mode choice component of a four-stage travel demand modelling system. However, travel demand modelling has been undergoing a paradigm shift from the traditional trip-based approach to an activity-based approach. The activity-based approach is intended to capture the influences of different policy variables at various stages of activity-travel decision making processes. Parking is a key policy variable that captures land use and transportation interactions in urban areas. It is important that the influences of parking choice on activity scheduling behaviour be identified fully. This paper investigates this issue using a sample data set collected in Montreal, Canada. Parking type choice and activity scheduling decision (start time choice) are modelled jointly in order to identify the effects of parking type choice on activity scheduling behaviour. Empirical investigation gives strong evidence that parking type choice influences activity scheduling process. The empirical findings of this investigation challenge the validity of the traditional conception which considers parking choice as exogenous variable only in the mode choice component of travel demand models.     

Modelling users’ behaviour of a carsharing program: Application of a joint hazard and zero inflated dynamic ordered probability model

This paper presents an econometric model for the behaviour of carsharing users. The econometric model is developed to jointly forecast membership duration, the decision to become an active member in a particular month, and the frequency of monthly usage of active members. The model is estimated using the membership directory and monthly transaction data of a carsharing program, ‘Communauto Inc.’, based in Montréal, Canada. The model shows a high degree of fit to the observed dataset and provides many behavioural details of carsharing users. The results are instructive to carsharing planners in devising efficient policies.     

Inland waterways—their role and significance in European transport

Summary

1) Western Europe has a navigable waterways‐network of about 19,000 kms. For the coming decades, however, about 40 percent of the length of these waterways has a very limited relevance, because of the small capacity of the barges that can pass along them.

2) Of the different types of barges the majority are the self‐propelled type. The importance of the pull‐towed barges is declining quickly, whereas the push‐towed barges are on the upswing.

3) The relative importance of inland shipping in comparison with rail transport is far from uniform. In The Netherlands inland shipping is dominant. On the other hand, in France, this mode of transport has only 30 percent of the total number of tons transported by inland shipping and railways together.

4) May the relative importance defer, there is a strong resemblance between the types of goods that are transported via the waterways with crude and manufactured minerals as well as building materials ranking high. In general, inland shipping is primarily involved in the transport of basic products and is of vital importance to the functioning of the West‐European economy.

5) The rather complicated legal regime of the waterways in Western Europe is certainly not the only reason why the integration in the transportation sector of the European Communities hardly moves on.

A fundamental discussion about the basic conceptions of the transport policy in the Common Market is unavoidable before real progress can be made. The entrance of the United Kingdom into the European Community may give an opening on this point.

6) Life goes on, with or without transport‐integration. Inland shipping moves forward too, paying for the use of infrastructure or not.

The general trends in transport support the expectation that the relative importance of inland shipping will increase in the coming decades. The increase in size of shipments and transport distances works in favour of this mode of transport. Besides this, inland shipping still has many possibilities to improve its productivity.

7) The future of inland shipping will be found in bulk transport and the transport of general cargo that has a volume per destination that goes far beyond the quantities for which the container or comparable types of transport units are better suited.     

Machine learning applications in activity-travel behaviour research: a review

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews the activity-travel behaviour literature that employs Machine Learning (ML) techniques for empirical analysis and modelling. Machine Learning algorithms, which attempt to build intelligence utilizing the availability of large amounts of data, have emerged as powerful tools in the fields of pattern recognition and big data analysis. These techniques have been applied in activity-travel behaviour studies since the early ’90s when Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were employed to model mode choice decisions. AMOS, an activity-based modelling system developed in the mid-’90s, has ANN at its core to model and predict individual responses to travel demand management measures. In the dawn of 2000, ALBATROSS, a comprehensive activity-based travel demand modelling system, was proposed by Arentze and Timmermans using Decision Trees. Since then researchers have been exploring ML techniques like Support Vector Machines (SVM), Decision Trees (DT), Neural Networks (NN), Bayes Classifiers, and more recently, Ensemble Learners to model and predict activity-travel behaviour. A large number of publications over the years and an upward trend in the number of published articles over time indicate that Machine Learning is a promising tool for activity-travel behaviour analysis and prediction. This article, first of its kind in the literature, reviews these studies and explores the trends in activity-travel behaviour research that apply ML techniques. The review finds that mode choice decisions have received wide attention in the literature on ML applications. It was observed that most of the studies identify the lack of interpretability as a serious shortcoming in ML techniques. However, very few studies have attempted to improve the interpretability of the models. Further, some studies report the importance of feature engineering in ML-based studies, but very few studies adopt feature engineering before model development. Spatiotemporal transferability of models is another issue that has received minimal attention in the literature. In the end, the paper discusses possible directions for future research in the area of activity-travel behaviour modelling using ML techniques.     

Validating the Passenger Traffic Model for Copenhagen

The paper presents a comprehensive validation procedure for the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen based on external data from the Danish national travel survey and traffic counts. The model was validated for the years 2000–2004, with 2004 being of particular interest because the Copenhagen Metro became operational in autumn 2002. We observed that forecasts from the demand sub-models agree well with the data from the 2000 national travel survey, with the mode choice forecasts in particular being a good match with the observed modal split. The results of the 2000 car assignment model matched the observed traffic better than those of the transit assignment model. With respect to the metro forecasts, the model over-predicts metro passenger flows by 10–50%. The wide range of findings from the project resulted in two actions. First, a project was started in January 2005 to upgrade the model’s base trip matrices. Second, a dialog between researchers and the Ministry of Transport has been initiated to discuss the need to upgrade the Copenhagen model, e.g. a switching to an activity-based paradigm and improving assignment procedures.     

When is big data big enough? Implications of using GPS-based surveys for travel demand analysis

A number of studies in the last decade have argued that Global Positioning Systems (GPS) based survey offer the potential to replace traditional travel diary surveys. GPS-based surveys impose lower respondent burden, offer greater spatiotemporal precision and incur fewer monetary costs. However, GPS-based surveys do not collect certain key inputs required for the estimation of travel demand models, such as the travel mode(s) taken or the trip purpose, relying instead on data-processing procedures to infer this information. This study assesses the impact that errors in inference can have on travel demand models estimated using data from GPS-based surveys and proposes ways in which these errors can be controlled for during both data collection and model estimation. We use simulated datasets to compare performance across different sample sizes, inference accuracies, model complexities and estimation methods. Findings from the simulated datasets are corroborated with real data collected from individuals living in the San Francisco Bay Area, United States. Results indicate that the benefits of using GPS-based surveys will vary significantly, depending upon the sample size of the data, the accuracy of the inference algorithm and the desired complexity of the travel demand model specification. In many cases, gains in the volume of data that can potentially be retrieved using GPS devices are found to be offset by the loss in quality caused by inaccuracies in inference. This study makes the argument that passively collected GPS-based surveys may never entirely replace surveys that require active interaction with study participants.     

Transport demand model estimation from traffic counts

Many problems in transport planning and management tasks require an origindestination (O-D) matrix to represent the travel pattern. However, O-D matrices obtained through a large scale survey such as home or roadside interviews, tend to be costly, labour intensive and time disruptive to trip makers. Therefore, the use of low cost and easily available data is particularly attractive.The need of low-cost methods to estimate current and future O-D matrices is even more valuable in developing countries because of the rapid changes in population, economic activity and land use. Models of transport demand have been used for many years to synthesize O-D matrices in study areas. A typical example of this is the gravity model; its functional form, plus the appropriate values for the parameters involved, is employed to produce acceptable matrices representing trip making behaviour for many trip purposes and time periods.The work reported in this paper has combined the advantages of acceptable travel demand models with the low cost and availability of traffic counts. Three types of demand models have been used: gravity (GR), opportunity (OP) and gravity-opportunity (GO) models. Three estimation methods have been developed to calibrate these models from traffic counts, namely: non-linear-least-squares (NLLS), weighted-non-linear-least-squares (WNLLS) and maximumlikelihood (ML).The 1978 Ripon (urban vehicle movement) survey was used to test these methods. They were found to perform satisfactorily since each calibrated model reproduced the observed O-D matrix fairly closely. The tests were carried out using two assignment techniques, all-or-nothing and the stochastic method due to Burrell, in determining the routes taken through the network.requests for offprints     

Personal travel management: the adoption and consideration of travel‐related strategies

Traveler behavior plays a role in the effectiveness of travel demand management (TDM) policies. Personal travel management is explored in this paper by analyzing individuals' adoption and consideration of 17 travel‐related alternatives in relation to socio‐demographic, mobility, travel‐related attitude, personality and lifestyle preference variables. The sample comprises 1282 commuters living in urban and suburban neighborhoods of the San Francisco Bay Area. Among the findings: females were more likely to have adopted/considered the more ‘costly’ strategies; those with higher mobility were more likely to have adopted/considered travel‐maintaining as well as travel‐reducing strategies; and those who like travel and want to do more are less likely to consider travel‐reducing strategies. These findings, when combined with those of earlier work on this subject, present a compelling argument for the need to further understand traveler behavior – particularly in response to congestion and TDM policies.