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基于马尔可夫链的极值波高预测 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文研究了由日最大波高系列估算设计极值波高时,相邻日最大波高间的相关性对极值预测的影响,从日最大波高系列遵从马尔可夫链的假定出发,考虑到国内外经常采用对数一正态分布的韦布尔分布拟合波高长期分布的现实,本文用解析法求解了对数一正态分布情况下的极值预测。同时,对解析法难以求解的非正态随机变量情况(如韦布尔分布),用计算机随机模拟方法求解其极值预测,用上述两种方法对北大西洋和北海有关日最大波高系列的预测 相似文献
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边界元法作为一种高效的数值方法,凭借其自身的优势,已经在土木工程和海洋工程等许多领域得到了广泛的应用.在对海上结构物的设计过程中,可以采用边界元法对同一结构物的不同设计方案进行数值模拟,对所得的计算结果进行比较、分析,根据工程的实际要求最终选择一个合理的结构型式.在波浪高度的模拟中,由于积分方程的准奇异性,直接计算往往产生很大的计算误差.本文应用单元细分方法解决了准奇异积分的问题,对物体周围的波高计算,可以得到高精度的计算结果.应用该方法本文计算了固定在水中的均匀直立圆柱周围的波高分布,与解析解吻合得很好,验证了计算程序的正确性.接着计算了不同截面型式圆柱周围的波高分布,比较了相同特征尺度、不同型式的柱状结构物对附近波高分布的影响. 相似文献
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在近岸浅水波浪分布的研究中,格鲁霍夫斯基给出适用于深水波至破碎波的整个浅水域(相对水深η>2)的波高经验分布公式,但该式在波浪发生破碎后的适用性研究欠缺。基于FLOW-3D软件对深水不规则波传播到斜坡地形上波浪发生破碎进行模拟,验证波高沿程分布与试验值的一致性,并模拟在130斜坡地形条件下波浪从有限水深传播到近岸破碎区的沿程波高分布变化。结果表明,在该坡度相对水深η<2.75情况下,格鲁霍夫斯基经验分布公式出现较大误差,不再适用;破碎区各累积率波高与平均波高的比值随相对水深变小呈递减趋势,经验公式值与之相比,总体上呈现出大波偏大、小波偏小的情况。 相似文献
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本文结合我国游艇码头设计规范,对比澳大利亚、英国、美国、日本等国家的规范、标准,综述分析各标准中关于游艇码头系泊条件的规定,探讨浮桥式游艇码头的系泊允许波高,成果可为游艇码头设计提供参考.我国现行规范与澳大利亚标准(AS 3962:2020)的最大允许波高基本相符,较其他国外标准略偏宽松.建议在游艇码头设计时,浮桥式游... 相似文献
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在开敞式高桩码头的设计中,波峰面上升高度是确定上部结构顶面高程的重要因素。针对波峰面上升高度的计算理论问题,对二阶斯托克斯波和椭圆余弦波理论进行论述。结合西非某工程案例,采用不同理论计算各控制点的波要素。结果表明:在长周期波浪作用海域,计算波峰面上升高度前应首先计算相对水深,当d0.125L时,采用二阶斯托克斯波理论计算结果误差较大,采用椭圆余弦波理论计算结果更符合实际情况。 相似文献
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To ensure hull structural strength of container ships in association with their increase in size, it is very important to grasp the hull stress histories all over the hull structure in actual sea state. However, ordinary hull stress monitoring systems are insufficient for this purpose because of the small number of stress sensors actually practicable. Therefore, in this paper, we discuss an approach to reproduce the hull stress responses which are not measured based on the estimated wave spectrum from the limited measurement data. To achieve this, we introduce a new model to estimate directional wave spectra based on measured ship stress responses and ship response functions, and further we estimate other ship responses using the model. To model an arbitrarily shaped directional wave distribution, the 360° direction is discretized into 36 directions of 10-degree intervals instead of using a directional distribution function, and in each direction, the wave spectrum is represented using the Ochi (3P) spectrum with three parameters (average wave period, significant wave height, and kurtosis). The authors discuss the evaluation results based on two stress response combinations, and a comparison is made between the sea state estimates made by the proposed method and the ocean wave hindcast database (JWA). Furthermore, by comparing the significant values and the spectra of the measured response of the ship with the estimated response based on both the estimated sea state by the proposed method and the hindcast sea state, the accuracies of the proposed method and the hindcast method are discussed in terms of ship stress estimation at non-instrumented locations. 相似文献
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为了增加船用起重机的起吊高度,采取增加起重机吊臂长度的措施来实现。本文以460t海上风电吊装运输专用船起重机为例,在其原有四节吊臂架起重机的基础上设计出五节吊臂架起重机,利用有限元分析对其进行校核设计,协同调节吊臂及人字架结构参数以满足各种工况下的工作性能,重点在于合理构建起重机的有限元模型,其中首次运用带有预紧力的弹簧单元模拟人字架端部滑轮组和吊臂背部滑轮组之间的钢丝绳连接作用,进行设计对比分析,修正五节臂架起重机的吊臂和人字架结构参数以实现其轻量化。 相似文献
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雷达探测效能受目标特征、天气条件影响较大,回波中杂波信息复杂,难以处理,导致雷达探测信息不够精确,不易用来进行辅助决策。采用数据挖掘技术,利用决策树算法,构建数据挖掘模型,对雷达杂波信息进行数据挖掘,发现隐藏在杂波信息中的有价值的规律和模式,可有效消除噪声信息的影响,使雷达在使用中更好地用于分析预测和辅助决策。 相似文献
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The present study aimed to predict the maximum seasonal wave height by new integrative data driven methods. For this purpose, two data-driven techniques, that are, the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and the Support Vector Regression (SVR), were applied, and a BWO algorithm was used as an integrated method (ANFIS-BWO and SVR-BWO). In addition, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm was used as a method integrated with SVR and ANFIS (SVR-PSO and ANFIS-PSO) to compare the performance of the newly developed methods (ANFIS-BWO and SVR-BWO). The wave data were collected in different seasons by a buoy station deployed in the southern Baltic Sea by the Institute of Hydro-Engineering of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Seasonal simulations were performed to investigate the effect of seasons on the maximum wave height. The wave data constituted an unevenly spaced time series. The maximum wave height was modeled using the maximum wave height period (Tmax), the significant wave height (Hs), the significant wave period (Ts), and time steps (Δt). The results showed that the application of BWO and PSO algorithms increased the accuracy of ANFIS and SVR by about 18.45%. Moreover, the results show that PSO increased the accuracy of ANFIS and SVR by about 17.98% and 21.59%, respectively. The results of different runs indicated that the BWO is more stable to reach the global solution than PSO. The results also show that show that SVR-BWO is the most accurate model. 相似文献
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针对光纤位移传感器动态范围窄的问题,设计一种结构简单、易于制备的气球形长周期光纤光栅(LPFG)位移传感器。
采用RSOFT软件进行仿真与优化,得到光纤在不同曲率下的光谱形态,以此来确定测量区间。通过将多模光纤周期性嵌入单模光纤形成的气球形长周期光纤光栅 (MMF-BLPFG),提供用于测量位移的参考峰。使用精密的连续切割装置作为实验基础,制备与仿真结果一致的实验样品进行测试。
通过测量2个谐振峰的漂移,实现了36 mm的最大位移测量范围。
该研究成果在舰船水下疏水空间管系的稳定性测量和连续监测等需要大规模测量的场景中具有良好的应用潜力。