2001世界干散市场展望 2001年世界干散货市场展望

2000年世界工业生产形势较好,加上1998年亚洲金融危机后缓建项目的重新启动,使得干散货海运得到一定程度的发展,运费用也大大提高。基于此,对去年的干散货海运市场进行了回顾,对2001年的干散货海运市场进行了分析。     

全球小宗干散货海运市场发展趋势分析

2020年初爆发的新冠肺炎疫情对国际干散货运输市场造成严重冲击,全球小宗散货海运贸易量同比降低3％;2021年随着疫情逐步得到有效控制,全球供应链快速恢复.分析近年来全球小宗散货海运贸易整体发展态势和主要货种贸易量增长趋势,结合中国小宗散货海运贸易发展和全球小宗干散货运力变化,对未来小宗干散货运输市场供需情况进行展望.     

远洋二次探底,沿海小幅赢利——2011年上半年国内外航运市场简评

1运力过剩,国际干散货海运市场二次探底 经历金融危机重挫之后的2009年2月,国际干散货海运市场在我国矿石进口大幅增长的刺激下,波罗的海干散货运价指数（BDI）从1 400点起强劲反弹,并于当年11月达到4600点。2011年6月30日,BDI报收于1413点。     

中外运看好干散货海运市场

中外运表示，世界干散货海运市场依然良好，油轮及集装箱海运市场将稳定发展，干散货海运市场供需亦相对平衡。不过，美国次级债的影响，国际油价的高位波动，中国经济的宏观调控，可能会给航运市场发展带来不确定影响。     

2007年我国铁矿石进口市场形势分析

随着我国钢铁工业的快速发展，铁矿石进口量年年攀升，在全球海运中的地位也逐渐上升，不可避免地对国际干散货海运市场产生了巨大的影响，同时也受到海运市场高涨的严重影响。     

中篇 国际干散货市场：2010年问题

铁矿石海运需求及其相应的好望角型船市场引领2008年以来的国际干散货运输市场大幅振荡走高。自2003年以来干散货市场已经持续五年多繁荣，未来干散货市场的景气行情还能持续多久？这是目前业界普遍关注的焦点问题。通过对影响市场的各因素分析，我们认为：     

2008年国际粮食散货运输市场分析

21世纪之前粮食贸易在国际干散货运输中具有重要地位，巴拿马型船美湾／日本粮食程租航线是干散货市场行情的晴雨表。但是进入21世纪，随着粮食运量增长有限甚至是负增长，粮食在全球干散货海运量的比重逐渐下降，仅占全球海运量的9．6％，而铁矿石海运贸易量猛增，铁矿石海运量占全球干散货海运量的比重达到27％，取代粮食成为干散货市场的主导货种。因此粮食散货运输对干散货市场的影响逐渐下降，主要起到稳定干散货市场走势的作用。     

2007年我国铁矿石进口市场形势分析

随着我国钢铁工业的快速发展，铁矿石进口量年年攀升，在全球海运中的地位也逐渐上升，不可避免地对国际干散货海运市场产生了巨大的影响，同时也受到海运市场高涨的严重影响。     

干散货运输市场分析

通过对世界经济与贸易，主要干散货海运运量，干散货船队以及费率的过去和现状的分析，对未来航运市场进行预测。     

2008年国际粮食散货运输市场分析

21世纪之前粮食贸易在国际干散货运输中具有重要地位，巴拿马型船美湾／日本粮食程租航线是干散货市场行情的晴雨表。但是进入21世纪，随着粮食运量增长有限甚至是负增长，粮食在全球干散货海运量的比重逐渐下降，仅占全球海运量的9．6％，而铁矿石海运贸易量猛增，铁矿石海运量占全球干散货海运量的比重达到27％，取代粮食成为干散货市场的主导货种。因此粮食散货运输对干散货市场的影响逐渐下降，主要起到稳定干散货市场走势的作用。     

国际干散货运输市场回顾与展望

2003年是国际干散货运输市场迄今为止表现最为强劲的一年。以中国进口铁矿石和日本进口煤炭为核心的需求空前高涨,谷物和小宗散货海运贸易也十分活跃,历史罕见的压港和低增长的新交船使运力供应高度紧张,市场出现严重的“结构性失调”,不仅夏季淡季不淡,表现火爆。而且在中国“十一”长假期间出现“井喷”行情,BDI指数一举冲破4 500点大关,较上一个历史高点1995年5月1日的2 352点高出2 000多点,三大船型运价水平均创历史新高。之后市场经过半个月的调整又再度发力,BDI再度越过4 700点大关,以完美的表现宣告了今年的结束。各权威机构对世界经济在2004年将加快发展已经基本达成共识,而目前在国际干散货运输市场中起着引擎作用的我国经济发展更是势头强劲,其钢铁工业步入高增长期,已成为不容争辩的事实,这无疑都为国际干散货运输市场提供了一个更加广阔的发展空间。运力方面虽然新交船数量略高,但船舶压港短时间内难以解决。因此,2004年的干散货运输市场总体形势看好。     

国际干散货航运市场回顾与展望

自2003年10月份以来,国际干散货航运市场表现十分强劲,但从2005年的BDI指数走势来看,这种高景气度已有明显的见顶迹象,对于国际干散货航运市场能否持续高涨的行情,说法众多不一。首先对国际干散货航运市场进行回顾,并针对与干散货航运市场关系密切的世界经济以及国际干散货航运市场供需两方面进行分析,最后对2006年国际干散货航运市场的发展加以展望。     

金融危机时期国际干散货船舶运输市场状况与对策

2008年金融危机以来,世界经贸形势错综复杂,国际干散货船舶运输市场陷入低迷,BDI指数持续低谷盘整。研究了国际干散货运输需求情况和运力增长规模,剖析了国际干散货运价走势,并针对金融危机时期国际干散货船舶运输市场状况,提出了金融危机时期国际干散货船舶运输的发展对策。     

国际干散货运输市场回顾与展望

从5个方面对2002年的干散货运输市场进行总体分析预测,同时整理归纳了2002年干散货运输的几大特点。 +     

2006年国际干散货运输市场走势预测

2005年国际干散货运输市场总体表现为前高后低、中间大幅调整、波动剧烈等特征。对于2006年的市场走势,业界已达成调整下降的共识,但调整的幅度、下降的速度观点不一。通过宏观和微观两个方面分析世界和中国经济的发展、钢铁业的走势、需求与供给、市场面临的风险,综合预测2006年国际干散货运输市场的走势。     

2014年世界船舶市场评述及2015年展望

对2014年世界经济、航运、造船市场进行回顾,并对2015年的发展方向进行展望。2014年,世界经济总体属于不均衡复苏;航运市场总体表现低于预期,油运市场相对较好,商船队保有量增速持续放缓;新造船市场订单量过亿吨,液货船订单增多,新造船价格呈现中间高两端低的走势。预计2015年世界经济将继续呈现不均衡复苏态势,2014年大宗商品价格的暴跌将有利于世界经济的复苏;航运市场方面,预计集装箱运输市场和油运市场贸易运输需求增速超过运力增速,干散货运输市场继续供大于求;预测2015年油船订单将继续复苏,集装箱船和散货船市场维持2014年的景气度,海工市场看淡。     

An analysis of freight rate volatility in dry bulk shipping markets

The world bulk shipping market has been in a peak period since 2003, and this has lasted an incredibly long time considering that the markets are much more complex than before. This paper investigates the characteristics of volatility in dry bulk freight rates of different vessel sizes (capesize, panamax and handysize). The daily returns of freight rate indices of three different types of bulk vessel in the sample period have been examined. The sample period ran from 1 March 1999 to 23 December 2005, and applying the GARCH (generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedasticity) model showed that the shocks will not decrease but have the tendency to strengthen for all the daily return series. Further, external shocks on the market have a different magnitude of influence on volatility in different types of vessels due to their distinct flexibility. To examine the asymmetric characters of daily return volatility in different bulk shipping sectors and different market conditions, the sample was divided into two periods: one is from 1 March 1999 to 31 December 2002, the other is from 1 January 2003 to 23 December 2005; the EGARCH (exponential generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedasticity) model was then applied to investigate the asymmetric impact between past innovations and current volatility. The results show that the asymmetric characters are distinct for different vessel size segments and different market conditions. The reasons for the results are discussed and it is considered that the main reasons may be the different flexibility and different commodity transport on different routes. The results from this investigation will be useful for the operators and investors in the dry bulk shipping market to increase profitability and reduce investment risk.     

Technical changes and impacts on economic performance of dry bulk vessels

Spurred by the expanding bulk shipping and technological innovations, dry bulk vessels have gained considerable development in ship types, ship design, and operation since the invention of the first specialized dry bulk carrier in the early 1950s. However, questions like: what changes in technical specifications have occurred for dry bulk vessels during the past four decades; what triggered these changes and what impacts have these specific changes had on shipping costs or earnings potential, have never been examined systematically in previous work. Subsequently, this article attempts to investigate changes in main technical specifications and relationships between the main technical variables and their economic performance measured by costs and revenues of dry bulk carriers. Technical changes in speed, deadweight, lightweight, and engines are checked for the main types of dry bulk vessels, and trends revealed in these developments are demonstrated to be the consequences of both technical improvement and economical considerations. Additionally, it has been found that the earnings potential differs much from dry bulk vessels with different technical specifications. This can be manifested in the sensitivity analysis. The analysis of this article may contain useful information to practitioners of dry bulk shipping in guiding their market decisions about ship building and operations.     

Assessment of investment decision in the dry bulk shipping market based on real options thinking and the shipping cycle perspective

As the dry bulk shipping market seems to have been stuck in a trough period for a long time, investors need to pay more attention to their investment strategies to survive during this period. This study aimed to find a suitable model to assess dry bulk ship investment decisions in the tough and peak periods based on real options theories. Two options, involving an abandonment option and a deferrable option, were used to define investors’ responses to the uncertainty in investment processes such as stopping or selling vessels. The option valuation was solved by using a binomial valuation model, due to data limitations. In accordance with shipping cycle theories, different volatility parameters for the tough and peak periods were calculated using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The application of the real options model to a case study involving secondhand ship trading indicated its viability. According to the results of the case study, the new model has advantages over the traditional net present value (NPV) method in uncertain investment environments. Thus, the results demonstrate that the real options model is a more suitable method for use in the current dry bulk shipping market.     

沿海干散货运输市场预测及建议

通过数据详尽分析2009年沿海干散货运输市场的水运形势,同时根据电力行业、钢铁行业的发展对未来2-3年中国煤炭需求、金属矿石需求和干散货运输市场进行预测,建议重视集疏运系统建设,签订长期协议,提高合同兑现率。