A quadratic programming model for designing and evaluating distance-based and zone fares for urban transit

A microcomputer based system for designing and evaluating distance-based and zone fares for transit properties is described. At the heart of the system is an optimization model that finds the fixed charge, mileage charge, and transfer charge that maximize gross revenue subject to constraints on ridership and the form of the fare equation. A linear approximation to the demand curve at the base case values results in a quadratic programming problem. Three alternative modes of using the model system are demonstrated using selected data from the Chicago Transit Authority. Model extensions and proposed future work are outlined.     

油田埋地盗油管道地面温度场周期性变化模拟计算

建立了埋地盗油管道年周期性变化温度场的物理模型,通过简化该物理模型建立了埋地盗油管道数学模型,进行了数值模拟运算.分析比较了不同月份埋地盗油管道热影响区域地表温度场特征,其结论表明:夏天相同距离温度差异比较小,在冬天相同距离温度差异比较大.     

哑铃形钢管混凝土拱肋简化建模方法研究

哑铃形钢管混凝土拱肋作为钢管混凝土拱桥的主要受力构件,其建模方法是否合理对全桥结构的安全性具有重要的意义。文章采用MIDAS软件,对哑铃形钢管混凝土拱肋进行了多种简化模拟,并将这些简化模型计算结果与运用AN—SYS软件建立的板、实体单元模型的计算结果进行了比较,以研究探讨较为合理适用的简化建模方法。     

Modeling lane-changing behavior in a connected environment: A game theory approach

Vehicle-to-Vehicle communications provide the opportunity to create an internet of cars through the recent advances in communication technologies, processing power, and sensing technologies. A connected vehicle receives real-time information from surrounding vehicles; such information can improve drivers’ awareness about their surrounding traffic condition and lead to safer and more efficient driving maneuvers. Lane-changing behavior, as one of the most challenging driving maneuvers to understand and to predict, and a major source of congestion and collisions, can benefit from this additional information. This paper presents a lane-changing model based on a game-theoretical approach that endogenously accounts for the flow of information in a connected vehicular environment. A calibration approach based on the method of simulated moments is presented and a simplified version of the proposed framework is calibrated against NGSIM data. The prediction capability of the simplified model is validated. It is concluded the presented framework is capable of predicting lane-changing behavior with limitations that still need to be addressed. Finally, a simulation framework based on the fictitious play is proposed. The simulation results revealed that the presented lane-changing model provides a greater level of realism than a basic gap-acceptance model.     

Heterogeneous platoon flow dispersion model based on truncated mixed simplified phase‐type distribution of travel speed

Existing research on platoon dispersion models either describe homogeneous traffic flow feature, or are in lack of analytical solutions. By analyzing the field data, the truncated mixed simplified phase‐type distribution is proved to be capable of capturing the characteristics of heterogeneous traffic flow with an excellent fitting result. In light of this, we derive a generic heterogeneous platoon dispersion model with truncated mixed simplified phase‐type of speed in the forms of integrable functions. Numerical case studies are conducted to compare the performance of the proposed model and the conventional models (i.e., the Robertson model and truncated mixed Gaussian model). The results show that the proposed model not only better captures the platoon dispersion laws of heterogeneous traffic flow, but also presents higher computational efficiency, which provides practical implications on traffic signal control. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of a constrained multinomial logit model

Identifying the set of available alternatives in a choice process after considering an individual’s bounds or thresholds is a complex process that, in practice, is commonly simplified by assuming exogenous rules in the choice set formation. The Constrained Multinomial Logit (CMNL) model incorporates thresholds in several attributes as a key endogenous process to define the alternatives choice/rejection mechanism. The model allows for the inclusion of multiple constraints and has a closed form. In this paper, we study the estimation of the CMNL model using the maximum likelihood function, develop a methodology to estimate the model overcoming identification problems by an endogenous partition of the sample, and test the model estimation with both synthetic and real data. The CMNL model appears to be suitable for general applications as it presents a significantly better fit than the MNL model under constrained behaviour and replicates the MNL estimates in the unconstrained case. Using mode choice real data, we found significant differences in the values of times and elasticities between compensatory MNL and semi-compensatory CMNL models, which increase as the thresholds on attributes become active.     

Simultaneous optimization of transit line configuration and passenger line assignment

Passenger transportation in most large cities relies on an efficient mass transit system, whose line configuration has direct impacts on the system operating cost, passenger travel time and line transfers. Unfortunately, the interplay between transit line configuration and passenger line assignment has been largely ignored in the literature. This paper presents a model for simultaneous optimization of transit line configuration and passenger line assignment in a general network. The model is formulated as a linear binary integer program and can be solved by the standard branch and bound method. The model is illustrated with a couple of minimum spanning tree networks and a simplified version of the general Hong Kong mass transit railway network.     

环向集中力作用管道的变分法受力分析

轴向压入式管道连接是基于材料在过盈配合作用下产生弹塑性变形的基本原理实现相互连接或密封的技术。文中根据设计的管接头,建立其结构的力学模型。利用变分法原理计算管接头在受到环向集中力作用时管道的径向位移,并与弹性力学中薄壁圆筒受环向集中力时简化计算公式的计算数据进行比较。数据对比表明：利用Rayleigh－Ritz变分法计算圆筒模型的管道变形时,其数据经过校正后满足密封性能要求,具有工程实用性。     

Analysis of factors that influence the sensor location problem for freeway corridors

The use of traffic sensors to acquire real‐time traffic information for intelligent transportation systems is becoming increasingly common. It is a challenge to determine where these sensors should be located to maximize the benefit of their use. This paper aims to illuminate the interaction of the sensor location problem (SLP) and its influencing factors, and to reveal the influencing mechanisms between those factors and the optimal sensor numbers. Firstly, we sum up the factors that influence the SLP for freeway corridors in detail and present the mathematical formulation of each factor. Then, given the parameters, which are derived from those influencing factors, the maximum integration value model (MIVM) and simplified MIVM are proposed for addressing the SLP. Finally, a real world case study, in which the simplified MIVM is used, is presented to illustrate how these factors influence the optimal sensor numbers and the maximum integration value, and also leads to the typical influencing patterns of those factors for freeway corridors. The results of the case study also demonstrate the effectiveness of the model and problem solving scheme. What is more, the suggestions for using the findings hereof in practical applications are put forward. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of urban bus transit marginal cost without cost data

We develop a method to study the industrial structure of urban bus transit without using cost data. To do so, we estimate the marginal cost function under the assumption that firms compete on frequency and adjust frequency to maximize profits. Our methodology is applied to Santiago, Chile. In this case, demand is modeled with a simplified model of transit network assignment. The goal is to consider how frequency, capacity, and on-board passengers affect the bus line’s demand. The marginal cost function is estimated by using the first-order conditions of the firm’s profit maximization problem, using the results of the demand model as data. We conclude that the urban bus transit industry in Santiago exhibits increasing returns to scale for low levels of demand and that these returns are exhausted rapidly at a moderate demand level. Additionally, firms exhibit economies of network expansion, on average.     

Integrating a simplified emission estimation model and mesoscopic dynamic traffic simulator to efficiently evaluate emission impacts of traffic management strategies

This paper presents a computationally efficient and theoretically rigorous dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model and its solution algorithm for a number of emerging emissions and fuel consumption related applications that require both effective microscopic and macroscopic traffic stream representations. The proposed model embeds a consistent cross-resolution traffic state representation based on Newell’s simplified kinematic wave and linear car following models. Tightly coupled with a computationally efficient emission estimation package MOVES Lite, a mesoscopic simulation-based dynamic network loading framework DTALite is adapted to evaluate traffic dynamics and vehicle emission/fuel consumption impact of different traffic management strategies.     

A hierarchical control system for freeway traffic

A hierarchical control system consisting of three control layers is developed for the freeway traffic control problem. A simplified optimization problem for the overall freeway system is solved on-line in an optimization layer. Optimization results are used as reference values for an inferior decentralized direct control layer. Prediction of slowly varying variables like on-ramp demands and origin-destination rates as well as of particular model parameters are provided by a supremal adaption layer. The overall control structure is shown to be robust even in the case of strong unexpected disturbances like incidents.     

Eco-system optimal time-dependent flow assignment in a congested network

This research addresses the eco-system optimal dynamic traffic assignment (ESODTA) problem which aims to find system optimal eco-routing or green routing flows that minimize total vehicular emission in a congested network. We propose a generic agent-based ESODTA model and a simplified queueing model (SQM) that is able to clearly distinguish vehicles’ speed in free-flow and congested conditions for multi-scale emission analysis, and facilitates analyzing the relationship between link emission and delay. Based on the SQM, an expanded space-time network is constructed to formulate the ESODTA with constant bottleneck discharge capacities. The resulting integer linear model of the ESODTA is solved by a Lagrangian relaxation-based algorithm. For the simulation-based ESODTA, we present the column-generation-based heuristic, which requires link and path marginal emissions in the embedded time-dependent least-cost path algorithm and the gradient-projection-based descent direction method. We derive a formula of marginal emission which encompasses the marginal travel time as a special case, and develop an algorithm for evaluating path marginal emissions in a congested network. Numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is able to effectively obtain coordinated route flows that minimize the system-wide vehicular emission for large-scale networks.     

Optimization of incentive polices for plug-in electric vehicles

High purchase prices and the lack of supporting infrastructure are major hurdles to the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). It is widely recognized that the government could help break these barriers through incentive policies, such as offering rebates to PEV buyers or funding charging stations. The objective of this paper is to propose a modeling framework that can optimize the design of such incentive policies. The proposed model characterizes the impact of the incentives on the dynamic evolution of PEV market penetration over a discrete set of time intervals, by integrating a simplified consumer vehicle choice model and a macroscopic travel and charging model. The optimization problem is formulated as a nonlinear and non-convex mathematical program and solved by a specialized steepest descent direction algorithm. We show that, under mild regularity conditions, the KKT conditions of the proposed model are necessary for local optimum. Results of numerical experiments indicate that the proposed algorithm is able to obtain satisfactory local optimal policies quickly. These optimal policies consistently outperform the alternative policies that mimic the state-of-the-practice by a large margin, in terms of both the total savings in social costs and the market share of PEVs. Importantly, the optimal policy always sets the investment priority on building charging stations. In contrast, providing purchase rebates, which is widely used in current practice, is found to be less effective.     

The suitability of hedonic models for cost-benefit analysis: Evidence from commuting flows

We compare two estimates of benefits arising from the construction of new bridges in south-west Norway. One estimate comes from a hedonic property value model. Rather than follow an approach which is strictly theoretically correct, we adopt Rosen’s simple first-stage approach. To investigate and validate whether this simplified approach gives a reasonable estimate, we compare it to an estimate derived from a travel demand model. We find that a variant of an ex post hedonic house price model gives very similar estimates to the estimates from the travel demand model. This supports a hypothesis that the simplistic hedonic approach is reasonable.     

Multi-regime arrival rate uniform delay models for signalized intersections

This paper presents the development and validation of uniform delay models for coordinated signalized intersections. The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) identifies one uniform and five non-uniform (platoon) arrival types. Delays for non-uniform arrival cases are computed by applying progression adjustment factors (PFs) to the delay for uniform arrival case. The range of PF is from 0% to 256%. We found that the PF approach produced accurate results for only one-half of cases. This paper presents an Arrival-Based approach that eliminates the needs for applying PF. The AB approach directly considers the effects of quality of progression in formulating delay models. It uses different flow rates for vehicles within and outside platoons. A total of 11 different delay models were derived to cover all arrival cases. Data from three different states were used for validation of AB delay models. The results indicate that AB models provided accurate results for all arrival types. However, HCM uniform delay model was not accurate for Arrival Types 1, 4 and 6. Furthermore, the results of cycle-by-cycle delay analyses showed that the difference between field delays and AB models were not significant, but that was not the case for the HCM model. The AB models can be simplified to yield the HCM uniform delay model, if a single regime arrival rate is assumed. Single regime arrival rate implies that the flow rate for vehicles in platoon is the same as those arriving randomly. For only the uniform arrival case, the AB delay model is identical to the HCM delay model; thus making the HCM uniform delay model a special case of AB models.     

Modelling the full costs of an intermodal and road freight transport network

This paper develops a model for calculating comparable combined internal and external costs of intermodal and road freight transport networks. Internal costs consist of the operational-private costs borne by the transport and intermodal terminal operators, and the time costs of goods tied in transit. The external costs include the costs of the impacts of both networks on society and the environment such as local and global air pollution, congestion, noise pollution, and traffic accidents. The model is applied to the simplified configurations of both networks using the inputs from the European freight transport system. The objective is to investigate some effects of European Union policy, which aims to internalise the external costs of transport, on the prospective competition between two networks from a social perspective.     

热管在冻土路基中应用的数值模拟分析

文章通过对大气-热管-土体耦合传热模型进行分析简化,采用ANSYS有限元分析系统建立了热管路基三维传热模型,并以青藏铁路北麓河地区气候条件和地质条件为背景,对普通路基和热管路基进行了模拟计算与对比分析,得到了两种冻土路基不同时刻的路基温度场变化规律。     

Applying measures of modelling quality to a national time series: a benchmark for transport demand models

ABSTRACT

In current urban planning practice, macroscopic transport demand and assignment models are essential for the evaluation of mid- and long-term land use developments and infrastructure investments. The credibility of their projections strongly depends on their ability to reproduce present day traffic volumes. Obviously, a simplified model of reality will display some shortcomings, and the effect of these is asserted by quality measures that quantify the divergence from observed traffic volumes. There is, however, only rough guidance regarding acceptable ranges of these measures. Most of the literature on this subject approach these ranges from below, by discussing measures attained by operational models and using these as a benchmark, or by using the adverse effects of modelling errors to derive a minimum quality level. On the contrary, this study suggests upper limits for quality measures by analysing year-on-year variations in traffic volumes that result from changing land use and infrastructure.     

A probabilistic stationary speed–density relation based on Newell’s simplified car-following model

Probabilistic models describing macroscopic traffic flow have proven useful both in practice and in theory. In theoretical investigations of wide-scatter in flow–density data, the statistical features of flow density relations have played a central role. In real-time estimation and traffic forecasting applications, probabilistic extensions of macroscopic relations are widely used. However, how to obtain such relations, in a manner that results in physically reasonable behavior has not been addressed. This paper presents the derivation of probabilistic macroscopic traffic flow relations from Newell’s simplified car-following model. The probabilistic nature of the model allows for investigating the impact of driver heterogeneity on macroscopic relations of traffic flow. The physical features of the model are verified analytically and shown to produce behavior which is consistent with well-established traffic flow principles. An empirical investigation is carried out using trajectory data from the New Generation SIMulation (NGSIM) program and the model’s ability to reproduce real-world traffic data is validated.