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1.
The impact of high-speed technology on railway demand 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper estimates a passenger railway demand function to analyse effects arising from the introduction and use of high-speed
technologies. The paper reports estimates of demand elasticities with respect to price, income, quality of service and a range
of exogenous characteristics. The results show that travel time savings from conventional high-speed technology have a larger
impact on passenger demand than tilting train technology. The introduction of conventional high-speed technology is associated
with an 8% increase in passenger railway demand. Increasing the use of either type of high-speed technology appears to induce
small positive effects on demand beyond those obtained from usual traffic density increases on non-high-speed existing technology.
Antonio Couto is an assistant professor in the Faculty of Engineering (FEUP) at the University of Porto. He received his PhD from FEUP in 2005 having completed a thesis in railway transport economics. His research focuses on issues related to transport economics and infrastructures. Daniel J. Graham is a Reader in the Centre for Transport Studies at Imperial College London. He specialises in the economics of transport, focusing in particular on modelling the implications of transport provision and accessibility for productivity and economic growth. 相似文献
Daniel J. Graham (Corresponding author)Email: |
Antonio Couto is an assistant professor in the Faculty of Engineering (FEUP) at the University of Porto. He received his PhD from FEUP in 2005 having completed a thesis in railway transport economics. His research focuses on issues related to transport economics and infrastructures. Daniel J. Graham is a Reader in the Centre for Transport Studies at Imperial College London. He specialises in the economics of transport, focusing in particular on modelling the implications of transport provision and accessibility for productivity and economic growth. 相似文献
2.
Robert Bain 《Transportation》2009,36(5):469-482
Traffic forecasts are employed in the toll road sector, inter alia, by private sector investors to gauge the bankability of
candidate investment projects. Although much is written in the literature about the theory and practice of traffic forecasting,
surprisingly little attention has been paid to the predictive accuracy of traffic forecasting models. This paper addresses
that shortcoming by reporting the results from the largest study of toll road forecasting performance ever conducted. The
author had access to commercial-in-confidence documentation released to project financiers and, over a 4-year period, compiled
a database of predicted and actual traffic usage for over 100 international, privately financed toll road projects. The findings
suggest that toll road traffic forecasts are characterised by large errors and considerable optimism bias. As a result, financial
engineers need to ensure that transaction structuring remains flexible and retains liquidity such that material departures
from traffic expectations can be accommodated.
Robert Bain spent the first 15 years of his career as a traffic and transportation consultant before joining the infrastructure team at Standard & Poor’s in 2002. He is currently retained by the rating agency on a freelance basis and, separately, provides transport-related technical support services to infrastructure funds, insurance companies and institutional investors. Robert recently completed a PhD at the Institute for Transport Studies—hence his affiliation with the University of Leeds. 相似文献
Robert BainEmail: |
Robert Bain spent the first 15 years of his career as a traffic and transportation consultant before joining the infrastructure team at Standard & Poor’s in 2002. He is currently retained by the rating agency on a freelance basis and, separately, provides transport-related technical support services to infrastructure funds, insurance companies and institutional investors. Robert recently completed a PhD at the Institute for Transport Studies—hence his affiliation with the University of Leeds. 相似文献
3.
Traffic microsimulation models normally include a large number of parameters that must be calibrated before the model can
be used as a tool for prediction. A wave of methodologies for calibrating such models has been recently proposed in the literature,
but there have been no attempts to identify general calibration principles based on their collective experience. The current
paper attempts to guide traffic analysts through the basic requirements of the calibration of microsimulation models. Among
the issues discussed here are underlying assumptions of the calibration process, the scope of the calibration problem, formulation
and automation, measuring goodness-of-fit, and the need for repeated model runs.
Yaron Hollander is a transport analyst, working for Steer Davies Gleave in London. His work combines advanced demand modelling, Stated Preference, appraisal, design of public transport systems, transport policy and network modelling. He completed his PhD at the Institute for Transport Studies in Leeds, and previously worked for the Technion – Israel Institute for Technology; for the Israeli Institute for Transportation Planning and Research; and for the public transport department at Ayalon Highways Co. Ronghui Liu is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. Her main research interests are modelling of traffic and microsimulation of driver behaviour and dynamical systems. She develops and applies network microsimulation models to a wide range of areas from transport policy instruments such as road pricing, to public transport operations and traffic signal controls. 相似文献
Ronghui LiuEmail: |
Yaron Hollander is a transport analyst, working for Steer Davies Gleave in London. His work combines advanced demand modelling, Stated Preference, appraisal, design of public transport systems, transport policy and network modelling. He completed his PhD at the Institute for Transport Studies in Leeds, and previously worked for the Technion – Israel Institute for Technology; for the Israeli Institute for Transportation Planning and Research; and for the public transport department at Ayalon Highways Co. Ronghui Liu is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. Her main research interests are modelling of traffic and microsimulation of driver behaviour and dynamical systems. She develops and applies network microsimulation models to a wide range of areas from transport policy instruments such as road pricing, to public transport operations and traffic signal controls. 相似文献
4.
Simon Peter Shepherd 《Transportation》2008,35(4):559-577
Transport externalities such as costs of emissions and accidents are increasingly being used within appraisal and optimisation
frameworks alongside the more traditional congestion analysis to set optimal transport policies. Models of externalities and
costs of externalities may be implemented by a simple constant cost per vehicle-km approach or by more complex flow and speed
dependent approaches. This paper investigates the impact of using both simple and more complex models of CO2 emissions and cost of accidents on the optimal toll for car use and upon resulting welfare levels. The approach adopted is
to use a single link model with a technical approach to the representation of the speed-flow relationship as this reflects
common modelling practice. It is shown that using a more complex model of CO2 emitted increases the optimal toll significantly compared to using a fixed cost approach while reducing CO2 emitted only marginally. A number of accident models are used and the impact on tolls is shown to depend upon the assumptions
made. Where speed effects are included in the accident model, accident costs can increase compared to the no toll equilibrium
and so tolls should in this case be reduced compared to the congestion optimal toll. Finally it is shown that the effect of
adding variable CO2 emission models along with a fixed cost per vehicle-km for accidents can increase the optimal toll by 44% while increasing
the true welfare gained by only 8%. The results clearly demonstrate that model assumptions for externalities can have a significant
impact on the resulting policies and in the case of accidents the policies can be reversed.
Simon Peter Shepherd at the Institute for Transport Studies since 1989, he gained his doctorate in 1994 applying state-space methods to the problem of traffic responsive signal control in over-saturated conditions. His expertise lies in modelling and policy optimisation ranging from detailed simulation models through assignment to strategic land use transport models. He is currently working on optimal cordon design and systems dynamics approaches to strategic modelling. 相似文献
Simon Peter ShepherdEmail: |
Simon Peter Shepherd at the Institute for Transport Studies since 1989, he gained his doctorate in 1994 applying state-space methods to the problem of traffic responsive signal control in over-saturated conditions. His expertise lies in modelling and policy optimisation ranging from detailed simulation models through assignment to strategic land use transport models. He is currently working on optimal cordon design and systems dynamics approaches to strategic modelling. 相似文献
5.
Singapore motorisation restraint and its implications on travel behaviour and urban sustainability 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Piotr S. Olszewski 《Transportation》2007,34(3):319-335
The example of Singapore shows that rapid urban and economic growth does not have to bring traffic congestion and pollution.
Singapore has chosen to restrain car traffic demand due to its limited land supply. Transport policy based on balanced development
of road and transit infrastructure and restraint of traffic has been consistently implemented for the past 30 years. Combined
with land use planning, it resulted in a modern transport system, which is free from major congestion and provides users with
different travel alternatives. As the economic growth caused a substantial increase in demand for cars, several pricing policies
were introduced with the aim of restraining car ownership and usage. Growth of the vehicle population is now controlled and
potentially congested roads are subject to road pricing. These measures help to keep the roads free from major congestion,
maintain car share of work trips below 25% and keep the transport energy usage low. Although Singapore conditions are in many
aspects unique, its travel demand experience can provide useful lessons for other rapidly growing cities in Asia.
相似文献
Piotr S. OlszewskiEmail: |
6.
There has been a great deal of research on deriving estimates of the value of travel time savings (VTTS) as a way of converting
travel time benefits of toll roads relative to free routes into monetary units, the major user benefit in the development
of forecasts of traffic and hence revenue streams. By contrast there has been almost no consideration given to identifying
the role that various tollroad products play in establishing preferences for toll routes over non-tolled routes. Increasingly
tollroads give users the option to pay by cash at a toll booth, by electronic tolling or by a pre- or post-paid debit and
credit account system involving vehicle identification. The efficiency gained by electronic tolling for both the users and
the operator have resulted in moves in many jurisdictions to eliminate cash collection entirely (or not introduce it when
introducing a new tolled road facility), and to introduce a range of pre- and post-payment options. This has been accompanied
by a growing move to distance-based charging in some contexts which is more cumbersome to structure with a cash option. This
paper investigates current and potential travellers’ preferences for a range of toll products and how much individual’s are
willing to pay for very specific toll products. Data from a stated choice experiment is used in a mixed logit model to establish
the role that toll products play in the context of offered times and costs of alternative routes, in choosing between alternative
ways of paying for the use of tolled routes.
David A. Hensher is Professor of Management, and Founding Director of the Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies. David is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia, Recipient of the 2006 Engineers Australia Transport Medal for lifelong contribution to transportation, member of Singapore Land Transport Authority International Advisory Panel (Chaired by Minister of Transport). David is on the editorial boards of 10 of the leading transport journals and Area Editor of Transport Reviews. David was appointed in 1999 by one of the worlds most prestigious academic publishing houses—Elsevier Science press as series and volume editor of a new handbook series “Handbooks in Transport”. Appointments over recent years include: a member of the executive committee that reviewed bus transport bids for the Olympic Games, the NSW Government’s Peer Review Committee for the Sydney Strategic Transport Plan, Peer reviewer for Transfund (NZ) of the New Zealand project evaluation program, Peer reviewer of the NZ Land Passenger Transport Procurement Strategy for Land Transport NZ, member of the executive committee of ATEC, a consortium promoting a freight rail system between Melbourne and Darwin; economic adviser to Gilbert+Tobin Lawyers on valuation methods in IP context; panel member of NSW Ministry of Transport benchmarking program; specialist toll road project adviser to Thiess. John M. Rose is Director of the Industry Program and a Deputy Director at Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS). John’s research interests are in the areas of discrete choice modelling and efficient stated choice experiments. John has several articles published in the top Transportation and Logistics journals (including Transportation, Transportation Research A, B and E) and is a co-author of (with Professors David Hensher and William Greene) Applied Choice Analysis; A Primer, (2005) by Cambridge University Press. He is currently writing a book on generating efficient stated choice experimental designs (with Mike Bliemer, Delft). 相似文献
John M. RoseEmail: |
David A. Hensher is Professor of Management, and Founding Director of the Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies. David is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia, Recipient of the 2006 Engineers Australia Transport Medal for lifelong contribution to transportation, member of Singapore Land Transport Authority International Advisory Panel (Chaired by Minister of Transport). David is on the editorial boards of 10 of the leading transport journals and Area Editor of Transport Reviews. David was appointed in 1999 by one of the worlds most prestigious academic publishing houses—Elsevier Science press as series and volume editor of a new handbook series “Handbooks in Transport”. Appointments over recent years include: a member of the executive committee that reviewed bus transport bids for the Olympic Games, the NSW Government’s Peer Review Committee for the Sydney Strategic Transport Plan, Peer reviewer for Transfund (NZ) of the New Zealand project evaluation program, Peer reviewer of the NZ Land Passenger Transport Procurement Strategy for Land Transport NZ, member of the executive committee of ATEC, a consortium promoting a freight rail system between Melbourne and Darwin; economic adviser to Gilbert+Tobin Lawyers on valuation methods in IP context; panel member of NSW Ministry of Transport benchmarking program; specialist toll road project adviser to Thiess. John M. Rose is Director of the Industry Program and a Deputy Director at Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS). John’s research interests are in the areas of discrete choice modelling and efficient stated choice experiments. John has several articles published in the top Transportation and Logistics journals (including Transportation, Transportation Research A, B and E) and is a co-author of (with Professors David Hensher and William Greene) Applied Choice Analysis; A Primer, (2005) by Cambridge University Press. He is currently writing a book on generating efficient stated choice experimental designs (with Mike Bliemer, Delft). 相似文献
7.
Railway reforms: do they influence operating efficiency? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper considers railway operations in 23 European countries during 1995–2001, where a series of reform initiatives were
launched by the European Commission, and analyses whether these reform initiatives improved the efficiency of the railway
systems. Efficiency is measured using Multi-directional Efficiency Analysis, which enables investigation of how railway reforms
affect the inefficiencies of specific cost drivers. The main findings are that the reform initiatives generally improve technical
efficiency but potentially differently for different cost drivers. Specifically, the paper provides empirical evidence that
accounting separation is important for improving the efficiency in the use of both material and staff costs, whereas other
reforms only influenced one of these factors.
Mette Asmild is Associate Professor in Operational Research at Warwick Business School (UK). Her main research interests are theoretical developments and practical applications of efficiency and productivity analysis techniques, particularly Data Envelopment Analysis. Torben Holvad is Economic Adviser at the European Railway Agency (France), senior research associate at the Transport Studies Unit (University of Oxford) and external associate professor at the Department of Transport (Danish Technical University). He obtained Economics degrees from Copenhagen University (MSc) and the European University Institute in Florence (PhD). Jens Leth Hougaard is Professor in Applied Microeconomics at Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen. His main research interests are related to applied microeconomics and include Efficiency Analysis and Benchmarking. Currently, he is working with cost sharing methods and allocation in networks. Dorte Kronborg is MSc in mathematical statistics from the University of Aarhus and Associate Professor at Center for Statistics, Department of Finance, Copenhagen Business School. Her primary research interests are applications and development of mathematical statistical methods within business economics. 相似文献
Dorte KronborgEmail: |
Mette Asmild is Associate Professor in Operational Research at Warwick Business School (UK). Her main research interests are theoretical developments and practical applications of efficiency and productivity analysis techniques, particularly Data Envelopment Analysis. Torben Holvad is Economic Adviser at the European Railway Agency (France), senior research associate at the Transport Studies Unit (University of Oxford) and external associate professor at the Department of Transport (Danish Technical University). He obtained Economics degrees from Copenhagen University (MSc) and the European University Institute in Florence (PhD). Jens Leth Hougaard is Professor in Applied Microeconomics at Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen. His main research interests are related to applied microeconomics and include Efficiency Analysis and Benchmarking. Currently, he is working with cost sharing methods and allocation in networks. Dorte Kronborg is MSc in mathematical statistics from the University of Aarhus and Associate Professor at Center for Statistics, Department of Finance, Copenhagen Business School. Her primary research interests are applications and development of mathematical statistical methods within business economics. 相似文献
8.
When a new public transport service is introduced it would be valuable for public authorities, financing organisations and
transport operators to know how long it will take for people to start to use the service and what factors influence this.
This paper presents results from research analysing the time taken for residents living close to a new guided bus service
to start to use (or adopt) the service. Data was obtained from a sample of residents on whether they used the new service
and the number of weeks after the service was introduced before they first used it. Duration modelling has been used to analyse
how the likelihood of starting to use the new service changes over time (after the introduction of the service) and to examine
what factors influence this. It is found that residents who have not used the new service are increasingly unlikely to use
it as time passes. Those residents gaining greater accessibility benefits from the new service are found to be quicker to
use the service, although the size of this effect is modest compared to that of other between-resident differences. Allowance
for the possibility that there existed a proportion of the sample that would never use the new service was tested using a
split population model (SPD) model. The SPD model indicates that 36% of residents will never use the new service and is informative
in differentiating factors that influence whether Route 20 is used and when it is used.
Kiron Chatterjee has been a Senior Lecturer at the University of the West of England, Bristol, since 2003 and previously was at the University of Southampton. Currently, a main focus of his research is on longitudinal analysis of travel behaviour to improve policy analysis. Kang-Rae Ma received a PhD in Planning from University College London. He worked at the University of the West of England, Bristol, and the Korea Transport Institute before he joined Chung-Ang University as an Assistant Professor. His research interests include modelling of travel behaviour and urban excess commuting. 相似文献
Kang-Rae MaEmail: |
Kiron Chatterjee has been a Senior Lecturer at the University of the West of England, Bristol, since 2003 and previously was at the University of Southampton. Currently, a main focus of his research is on longitudinal analysis of travel behaviour to improve policy analysis. Kang-Rae Ma received a PhD in Planning from University College London. He worked at the University of the West of England, Bristol, and the Korea Transport Institute before he joined Chung-Ang University as an Assistant Professor. His research interests include modelling of travel behaviour and urban excess commuting. 相似文献
9.
This paper looks at the first and second best jointly optimal toll and road capacity investment problems from both policy
and technical oriented perspectives. On the technical side, the paper investigates the applicability of the constraint cutting
algorithm for solving the second best problem under elastic demand which is formulated as a bilevel programming problem. The
approach is shown to perform well despite several problems encountered by our previous work in Shepherd and Sumalee (Netw.
Spat. Econ., 4(2): 161–179, 2004). The paper then applies the algorithm to a small sized network to investigate the policy implications of the first and second
best cases. This policy analysis demonstrates that the joint first best structure is to invest in the most direct routes while
reducing capacities elsewhere. Whilst unrealistic this acts as a useful benchmark. The results also show that certain second
best policies can achieve a high proportion of the first best benefits while in general generating a revenue surplus. We also
show that unless costs of capacity are known to be low then second best tolls will be affected and so should be analysed in
conjunction with investments in the network.
Andrew Koh Prior to joining the Institute for Transport Studies in December 2005, Andrew was employed for number of years as a consultant in highway assignment modelling. He is an economist with wide ranging research interests in transport economics as well as evolutionary computation heuristics such as genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimisation and differential evolution. Simon Shepherd At the Institute for Transport Studies since 1989, he gained his doctorate in 1994 applying state-space methods to the problem of traffic responsive signal control in over-saturated conditions. His expertise lies in modelling and policy optimisation ranging from detailed simulation models through assignment to strategic land use transport models. Recently he has focussed on optimisation of road user charging schemes and is currently working on optimal cordon design and system dynamics approaches to strategic modelling. Agachai Sumalee Agachai is currently an Assistant Professor at Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University (). He obtained a Ph.D degree with the thesis entitled “Optimal Road Pricing Scheme Design” at Leeds University in 2004. His research areas cover transport network modeling and optimization, stochastic network modeling, network reliability analysis, and road pricing. Agachai is currently an associate editor of Networks and Spatial Economics. 相似文献
Agachai SumaleeEmail: |
Andrew Koh Prior to joining the Institute for Transport Studies in December 2005, Andrew was employed for number of years as a consultant in highway assignment modelling. He is an economist with wide ranging research interests in transport economics as well as evolutionary computation heuristics such as genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimisation and differential evolution. Simon Shepherd At the Institute for Transport Studies since 1989, he gained his doctorate in 1994 applying state-space methods to the problem of traffic responsive signal control in over-saturated conditions. His expertise lies in modelling and policy optimisation ranging from detailed simulation models through assignment to strategic land use transport models. Recently he has focussed on optimisation of road user charging schemes and is currently working on optimal cordon design and system dynamics approaches to strategic modelling. Agachai Sumalee Agachai is currently an Assistant Professor at Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University (). He obtained a Ph.D degree with the thesis entitled “Optimal Road Pricing Scheme Design” at Leeds University in 2004. His research areas cover transport network modeling and optimization, stochastic network modeling, network reliability analysis, and road pricing. Agachai is currently an associate editor of Networks and Spatial Economics. 相似文献
10.
Georgina Santos 《运输评论》2013,33(5):511-534
Abstract The congestion charging schemes in London and Singapore are compared and assessed in the light of guidelines set out in the Smeed Report, published by the UK Ministry of Transport in 1964, and their performance in reducing congestion and raising net revenue. The aim is to draw lessons for other towns and cities considering the introduction of congestion charging. One important result from Electronic Road Pricing in Singapore is that a per‐entry charge is more effective at reducing congestion than a per‐day charge. It is concluded that although Electronic Road Pricing in Singapore is more in line with the desirable properties outlined in the Smeed Report, both schemes are part of a wider package of transport policies, and that is probably the most important reason for their success. The main lesson for other towns and cities around the world considering the possibility of introducing congestion charging is that any such scheme ought to be accompanied by complementary measures that will provide motorists with a valid alternative to the car. 相似文献
11.
Theo Arentze Harry Timmermans Peter Jorritsma Marie-José Olde Kalter Arnout Schoemakers 《Transportation》2008,35(5):613-627
This paper reports the results of a scenario-based simulation study to explore mobility effects of an aging society in the
Netherlands. Four accumulative behavioral scenario variants, embedded in an economic and demographic scenario are used to
simulate possible future activity-travel patterns, using the Albatross system as the simulator. The variants account for likely
differences in activity-travel behavior between elderly today and elderly in the future. Trends ongoing over the last decade
in the Netherlands suggest that future elderly need to work longer, change their activity pattern with most growth occurring
in the social/leisure activity category, will try to avoid morning peak hours by rescheduling their activities and may introduce
more spatial diversity in terms of their residence location. Results show that these behavioral and spatial changes lead to
a significant increase in travel demands as well as temporal, spatial and modal shifts in mobility patterns. We discuss possible
policy implications of these predictions and evaluate the specific strength of activity-based models for studies of this kind.
Theo Arentze received a Ph.D. in Decision Support Systems for urban planning from the Eindhoven University of Technology. He is now an Associate Professor at the Urban Planning Group at the same university. His main fields of expertise and current research interests are activity-based modeling, discrete choice modeling, knowledge discovery and learning-based systems, and decision support systems with applications in urban and transport planning. Harry Timmermans (1952) holds a Ph.D. degree in Geography/Urban and Regional Planning. He studied at the Catholic University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands. Since 1976 he is affiliated with the Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning of the Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands. First as an assistant professor of Quantitative and Urban Geography, later as an associate professor of Urban Planning Research. In 1986 he was appointed chaired professor of Urban Planning at the same institute. In 1992 he founded the European Institute of Retailing and Services Studies (EIRASS) in Eindhoven, the Netherlands (a sister-institute of the Canadian Institute of Retailing and Services Studies). His main research interests concern the study of human judgement and choice processes, mathematical modelling of urban systems and spatial interaction and choice patterns and the development of decision support and expert systems for application in urban planning. He has published several books and many articles in journals in the fields of Marketing, Urban Planning, Architecture and Urban Design, Geography, Environmental Psychology, Transportation Research, Urban and Regional Economics, Urban Sociology, Leisure Sciences and Computer Science. Peter Jorritsma graduated in 1981 as a Traffic Engineer and in 1987 as MSc in Economic Geography at the University of Groningen. After a 2-year period as researcher at the Faculty of Spatial Sciences of the University of Groningen he started in 1989 a career at the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Planning and Water Management. Within the Ministry, Peter Jorritsma worked within different research departments. The focus of his research work was on (inter)national public transport issues, spatial planning in relation to transport, travel behaviour in common and travel behaviour of different groups in society (elderly, immigrants, women). Since 2006 Peter Jorritsma is working for the KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis, a scientific research institute within the Ministry of Transport. Marie-José Olde Kalter graduated in 1997 as MSc in Traffic and Transport Engineering at the University of Twente. She started her career at Goudappel Coffeng BV, a traffic and transport consultant for public and private parties. Within Goudappel Coffeng, Marie-José was the first 3 years concerned with developing transport models to forecast the future use of infrastructure given different scenario’s and policy measures. After this period she specialized in qualitative and quantitative research methods. In 2005 she continued her career at the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Strategic Modeling and Forecasting. Since 2006 is Marie-José working for the KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis, a scientific research institute within the Ministry of Transport. She is mainly involved in qualitative and quantitative research related to travel behaviour. Arnout Schoemakers graduated in 1998 as MSc in Environmental and Infrastructure Planning at the University of Groningen. He started his career at AGV, a traffic and transport consultant for public and private parties. Within AGV, Arnout was concerned with developing land-use and transportation models to forecast the future use of infrastructure and land-use given different scenario’s and policy measures. In 2002 he continued his career at the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Strategic Modeling and Forecasting. At this Ministry Arnout was project manager of the new developed LUTI model TIGRIS XL and the activity based model ALBATROSS. Since 2008 Arnout is working at Oranjewoud, a stock-noted leading consultancy and engineering firm. He is mainly involved developing and using transport models, and in designing processes how to use these model systems in the Dutch planning system. 相似文献
Theo ArentzeEmail: |
Theo Arentze received a Ph.D. in Decision Support Systems for urban planning from the Eindhoven University of Technology. He is now an Associate Professor at the Urban Planning Group at the same university. His main fields of expertise and current research interests are activity-based modeling, discrete choice modeling, knowledge discovery and learning-based systems, and decision support systems with applications in urban and transport planning. Harry Timmermans (1952) holds a Ph.D. degree in Geography/Urban and Regional Planning. He studied at the Catholic University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands. Since 1976 he is affiliated with the Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning of the Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands. First as an assistant professor of Quantitative and Urban Geography, later as an associate professor of Urban Planning Research. In 1986 he was appointed chaired professor of Urban Planning at the same institute. In 1992 he founded the European Institute of Retailing and Services Studies (EIRASS) in Eindhoven, the Netherlands (a sister-institute of the Canadian Institute of Retailing and Services Studies). His main research interests concern the study of human judgement and choice processes, mathematical modelling of urban systems and spatial interaction and choice patterns and the development of decision support and expert systems for application in urban planning. He has published several books and many articles in journals in the fields of Marketing, Urban Planning, Architecture and Urban Design, Geography, Environmental Psychology, Transportation Research, Urban and Regional Economics, Urban Sociology, Leisure Sciences and Computer Science. Peter Jorritsma graduated in 1981 as a Traffic Engineer and in 1987 as MSc in Economic Geography at the University of Groningen. After a 2-year period as researcher at the Faculty of Spatial Sciences of the University of Groningen he started in 1989 a career at the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Planning and Water Management. Within the Ministry, Peter Jorritsma worked within different research departments. The focus of his research work was on (inter)national public transport issues, spatial planning in relation to transport, travel behaviour in common and travel behaviour of different groups in society (elderly, immigrants, women). Since 2006 Peter Jorritsma is working for the KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis, a scientific research institute within the Ministry of Transport. Marie-José Olde Kalter graduated in 1997 as MSc in Traffic and Transport Engineering at the University of Twente. She started her career at Goudappel Coffeng BV, a traffic and transport consultant for public and private parties. Within Goudappel Coffeng, Marie-José was the first 3 years concerned with developing transport models to forecast the future use of infrastructure given different scenario’s and policy measures. After this period she specialized in qualitative and quantitative research methods. In 2005 she continued her career at the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Strategic Modeling and Forecasting. Since 2006 is Marie-José working for the KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis, a scientific research institute within the Ministry of Transport. She is mainly involved in qualitative and quantitative research related to travel behaviour. Arnout Schoemakers graduated in 1998 as MSc in Environmental and Infrastructure Planning at the University of Groningen. He started his career at AGV, a traffic and transport consultant for public and private parties. Within AGV, Arnout was concerned with developing land-use and transportation models to forecast the future use of infrastructure and land-use given different scenario’s and policy measures. In 2002 he continued his career at the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Strategic Modeling and Forecasting. At this Ministry Arnout was project manager of the new developed LUTI model TIGRIS XL and the activity based model ALBATROSS. Since 2008 Arnout is working at Oranjewoud, a stock-noted leading consultancy and engineering firm. He is mainly involved developing and using transport models, and in designing processes how to use these model systems in the Dutch planning system. 相似文献
12.
Congestion charging is being considered as a potential measure to address the issue of substantially increased traffic congestion and vehicle emissions in Beijing. This study assessed the impact of congestion charging on traffic and emissions in Beijing using macroscopic traffic simulation and vehicle emissions calculation. Multiple testing scenarios were developed with assumptions in different charging zone sizes, public transit service levels and charging methods. Our analysis results showed that congestion charging in Beijing may increase public transit use by approximately 13%, potentially reduce CO and HC emissions by 60–70%, and reduce NOx emissions by 35–45% within the charging zone. However, congestion charging may also result in increased travel activities and emissions outside of the charging zone and a slight increase in emissions for the entire urban area. The size of charging zone, charging method, and charging rate are key factors that directly influence the impact of congestion charging; improved public transit service needs to be considered as a complementary approach with congestion charging. This study is used by Beijing Transportation Environment and Energy Center (BTEC) as reference to support the development of Beijing’s congestion charging policy and regulation. 相似文献
13.
Due to a variety of reasons, the previous century is characterized by an extraordinary growth in car use that has continued
into the current century. This has resulted in serious environmental repercussions. Despite technological advancements, the
externalities remain an ecological threat that can not be discarded by policy makers. Therefore, it is essential that policy
makers focus on reducing car use and on stimulating the shift towards more environment-friendly transport modes. In this study,
Q-methodology is adopted as the technique to segment people, and to ascertain which approaches and determinants matter to
medium distance travel. Segmentation is important, as policy measures will be more efficient and effective if they are fine-tuned
on specific target groups. The analysis revealed that four discourses preponderate the paradigm of environmentally sustainable
transport: travelers who use public transport as a dominant alternative, car-dependent travelers, travelers with a positive
perception of using public transport, and travelers with a preference for car use. Concerning rational, economic motives,
individuals evaluate travel time reliability as most important. To increase the reliability policy makers should consider
the use of separate bus lanes and traffic light manipulation. In addition, public transport can be made even more attractive,
when costs of cars are made more variable by road or congestion charging. When the s motives are discussed, the differences
between the different groups of travelers were more pronounced. Next to increasing the benefits of using public transport,
policy makers should also pay attention to removing psycho-social barriers.
相似文献
Mario CoolsEmail: |
14.
This study explores the relationships between adoption and consideration of three travel-related strategy bundles (travel
maintaining/increasing, travel reducing, and major location/lifestyle change), linking them to a variety of explanatory variables.
The data for this study are the responses to a fourteen-page survey returned by nearly 1,300 commuting workers living in three
distinct San Francisco Bay area neighborhoods in May 1998. We first identified patterns of adoption and consideration among
the bundles, using pairwise correlation tests. The test results indicate that those who have adopted coping strategies continue
to seek for improvements across the spectrum of generalized cost, but perhaps most often repeating the consideration of a
previously-adopted bundle. Furthermore, we developed a multivariate probit model for individuals’ simultaneous consideration
of the three bundles. It is found that in addition to the previous adoption of the bundles, qualitative and quantitative Mobility-related
variables, Travel Attitudes, Personality, Lifestyle, Travel Liking, and Sociodemographics significantly affect individual
consideration of the strategy bundles. Overall, the results of this study give policy makers and planners insight into understanding
the dynamic nature of individuals’ responses to travel-related strategies, as well as differences between the responses to
congestion that are assumed by policy makers and those that are actually adopted by individuals.
Sangho Choo is a Research Associate at The Korea Transport Institute. His research interests include travel demand modeling, travel survey methods with GPS, and travel behavior modeling. Patricia L. Mokhtarian is a professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, chair of the interdisciplinary Transportation Technology and Policy MS/PhD program, and Associate Director for Education of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis. She has been modeling travel behavior and attitudes for more than 30 years. 相似文献
Patricia L. Mokhtarian (Corresponding author)Email: |
Sangho Choo is a Research Associate at The Korea Transport Institute. His research interests include travel demand modeling, travel survey methods with GPS, and travel behavior modeling. Patricia L. Mokhtarian is a professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, chair of the interdisciplinary Transportation Technology and Policy MS/PhD program, and Associate Director for Education of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis. She has been modeling travel behavior and attitudes for more than 30 years. 相似文献
15.
An analysis on long term emission benefits of a government vehicle fleet replacement plan in northern illinois 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
There have been a number of studies of the effectiveness of vehicle scrappage programs, which offer incentives to accelerated
scrappage of older vehicles often thought to be high emitters. These programs are voluntary and aimed at replacement of household
vehicles. In contrast, there is a gap in knowledge related to the emissions benefits of government fleet replacement (retirement)
programs. In this study, the efficacy of a fleet replacement program for a local government agency in Northern Illinois, the
Forest Preserve of DuPage County (FPDC), is examined using a probabilistic vehicle survival model that accounts for time-varying
covariates such as vehicle age and gasoline price. The vehicle lifetime operating emissions are calculated based on the estimated
vehicle survival probabilities from the survival model and compared with those derived using the EPA default fleet used in
MOBILE6 and the fleet represented by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) survival curve. The results suggest that while
there may be short term emission benefits of the FPDC fleet replacement plan, the long-term emission benefits are highly sensitive
to economic factors (e.g., future gasoline price) and exhibit a decreasing trend. This indicates that an adaptive multi-stage
replacement strategy as opposed to a fixed one is preferable to achieve optimal cost effectiveness.
Dr. Jie Lin (Jane) is an assistant professor in Department of Civil and Materials Engineering and a researcher with the Institute for Environmental Science and Policy at University of Illinois at Chicago. Her current research is focused on transportation sustainability through holistic modeling of energy consumption and emissions associated with private, freight, and public transportation activities. Dr. Cynthia Chen is an assistant professor in the civil engineering department at City College of New York. Her research expertise and interests cover travel behavior analysis, land use and transportation, transportation safety, and environmental analysis. Dr. Deb Niemeier is a professor at UC Davis and her current research focus is on the nexus between transportation, land use and climate change, particularly how land use and transportation decisions affect energy consumption and contribute to climate change. She is considered an expert on transportation-air quality modeling and policy and sustainability. 相似文献
Debbie A. NiemeierEmail: |
Dr. Jie Lin (Jane) is an assistant professor in Department of Civil and Materials Engineering and a researcher with the Institute for Environmental Science and Policy at University of Illinois at Chicago. Her current research is focused on transportation sustainability through holistic modeling of energy consumption and emissions associated with private, freight, and public transportation activities. Dr. Cynthia Chen is an assistant professor in the civil engineering department at City College of New York. Her research expertise and interests cover travel behavior analysis, land use and transportation, transportation safety, and environmental analysis. Dr. Deb Niemeier is a professor at UC Davis and her current research focus is on the nexus between transportation, land use and climate change, particularly how land use and transportation decisions affect energy consumption and contribute to climate change. She is considered an expert on transportation-air quality modeling and policy and sustainability. 相似文献
16.
This paper proposes an innovative approach for designing a road user charging scheme to meet multiple policy objectives. Three
practical features are integrated into the design methodology including (i) cordon formation, (ii) a set of design constraints,
and (iii) multiple objectives of the scheme. The methods also consider possible responses of road travellers to the charging
scheme. Two methods based on genetic algorithms (GA) are developed for optimising a charging cordon scheme with constraints
and with multiple objectives. The dynamic self-adaptive penalty GA and Non-dominated Sorting GA II (NSGA-II) are applied to
the constrained design and multi-objective design respectively. The objective functions or constraints considered include
social welfare improvement, revenue generation, and distributional equity impact. A case study of the City of Edinburgh is
presented and common characteristics of charging cordon designs which perform well against the three objectives are discussed.
相似文献
Agachai SumaleeEmail: |
17.
In this paper, we take an initial look at the spatial and temporal flexibility in the activity patterns of the so-called “baby-boomer”
cohort (born 1947–1966) in comparison with younger and older adults. Using a unique longitudinal survey carried in Quebec
City from 2002 to 2005, we explore activity patterns and trip rates over a seven-day observation period during the first wave,
and take a first look at some aspects of their evolution over two subsequent waves at about one-year intervals. We model the
propensity to undertake activities within selected conventional non-work classifications such as “shopping” and “leisure”,
and also according to respondents’ own perceptions of the spatial and temporal flexibility of each out-of-home activity that
they had executed. While we cannot strictly separate cohort effects from age-related effects, after controlling for gender
and household structure, we infer that age and related lifestyle effects dominate in explaining these propensities. However,
the boomers were the only age stratum to increase their total out-of-home activity participation over the course of the panel,
an intriguing starting point for the future study of this cohort.
Luis F. Miranda-Moreno has been recently appointed as Assistant Professor in the Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics at McGill University. His research focuses on travel behaviour, transportation safety and evaluation of sustainable transport strategies. Martin Lee-Gosselin recently retired as Full Professor at the Graduate School of Planning and CRAD, Université Laval, Québec, and is Visiting Professor at Imperial College London. His research interests are transport and telecommunications behaviour, survey methods, energy efficiency and the impacts of transport on the environment and public health. 相似文献
Martin Lee-GosselinEmail: |
Luis F. Miranda-Moreno has been recently appointed as Assistant Professor in the Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics at McGill University. His research focuses on travel behaviour, transportation safety and evaluation of sustainable transport strategies. Martin Lee-Gosselin recently retired as Full Professor at the Graduate School of Planning and CRAD, Université Laval, Québec, and is Visiting Professor at Imperial College London. His research interests are transport and telecommunications behaviour, survey methods, energy efficiency and the impacts of transport on the environment and public health. 相似文献
18.
What neighborhood are you in? Empirical findings of relationships between household travel and neighborhood characteristics 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In recent years, there have been studies of the influence of neighborhood or built environment characteristics on residential
location choice and household travel behavior. Interestingly, there is no uniform definition of neighborhood in the literature
and the definition is often vague. This paper presents an alternative way of defining neighborhood and neighborhood type,
which involves innovative usage of public data sources. Furthermore, the paper investigates the interaction between neighborhood
environment and household travel in the US. A neighborhood here is spatially identical to a census tract. A neighborhood type
identifies a group of neighborhoods with similar neighborhood socio-economic, demographic, and land use characteristics. This
is accomplished by performing log-likelihood clustering on the Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) 2000 data. Five
household travel measures, i.e., number of trips per household, mode share, average travel distance and time per trip, and
vehicle miles of travel (VMT), are then compared across the resulting 10 neighborhood types, using the 2001 National Household
Travel Survey (NHTS) household and trip files. It is found that household life cycle status and residential location are not
independent. Transit availability at place of residence tends to increase the transit mode share regardless of household automobile
ownership and income level, and job-housing trade-offs are evident when mobility is not of concern. The study also reveals
racial preference in residential location and contrasting travel characteristics among ethnic groups.
Dr. Jie Lin (Jane) is an assistant professor in Department of Civil and Materials Engineering and a researcher with the Institute for Environmental Science and Policy at University of Illinois at Chicago. Her research is focused on transportation demand analysis, data mining, and transportation sustainability in private, freight, and public transportation systems. Dr. Liang Long received a Doctorate degree in Civil Engineering from the University of Illinois at Chicago and a Master’s degree in Civil Engineering (Transportation Engineering) from Tongji University. She is currently with Cambridge Systematics as a transportation modeler with expertise in travel demand forecasting, geographic information systems (GIS) and market research. 相似文献
Liang LongEmail: |
Dr. Jie Lin (Jane) is an assistant professor in Department of Civil and Materials Engineering and a researcher with the Institute for Environmental Science and Policy at University of Illinois at Chicago. Her research is focused on transportation demand analysis, data mining, and transportation sustainability in private, freight, and public transportation systems. Dr. Liang Long received a Doctorate degree in Civil Engineering from the University of Illinois at Chicago and a Master’s degree in Civil Engineering (Transportation Engineering) from Tongji University. She is currently with Cambridge Systematics as a transportation modeler with expertise in travel demand forecasting, geographic information systems (GIS) and market research. 相似文献
19.
《Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice》2005,39(7-9):737-754
A disaggregate spatial analysis, using enumeration district data for London was conducted with the aim of examining how congestion may affect traffic safety. It has been hypothesized that while congested traffic conditions may increase the number of vehicle crashes and interactions, their severity is normally lower than crashes under uncongested free flowing conditions. This is primarily due to the slower speeds of vehicles when congestion is present. Our analysis uses negative binomial count models to examine whether factors affecting casualties (fatalities, serious injuries and slight injuries) differed during congested time periods as opposed to uncongested time periods. We also controlled for congestion spatially using a number of proxy variables and estimated pedestrian casualty models since a large proportion of London casualties are pedestrians. Results are not conclusive. Our results suggest that road infrastructure effects may interact with congestion levels such that in London any spatial differences are largely mitigated. Some small differences are seen between the models for congested versus uncongested time periods, but no conclusive trends can be found. Our results lead us to suspect that congestion as a mitigator of crash severity is less likely to occur in urban conditions, but may still be a factor on higher speed roads and motorways. 相似文献
20.
Konstantinos G. Zografos Konstantinos N. Androutsopoulos Teemu Sihvola 《Transportation》2008,35(6):777-795
Flexible transport services include a wide range of demand responsive transport systems that provide non-conventional passenger
and freight transportation services. Several alternative business models varying according to the local market conditions,
the socio-economic, legal, and institutional framework may be developed for the provision of Flexible Transport Systems (FTS).
The objective of this paper is twofold: first to present an integrated methodological framework for developing and assessing
alternative FTS business models and second to demonstrate its applicability to a case study regarding the prioritization of
alternative FTS business models for the provision of flexible passenger transport services in Helsinki.
相似文献
Teemu SihvolaEmail: |