Estimating the demand for urban bus travel

The disadvantages of conventional transportation study models, in particular their large data requirements and their weaknesses in dealing with changes in trip generation rates have led to a need for a simple model that can quickly and at low cost examine alternative public transport strategies.This paper investigates simple economic models of bus demand, examines alternative variables that can be used and discusses some alternative model forms. It demonstrates the results of a model using data from twelve urban bus operators in Britain and compares the results with those from other types of study. The model utilises fare and service quality elasticities to explain the decline in passengers on urban bus services, and derives an average elasticity with respect to fare changes of –0.31 and with respect to service quality changes of +0.62. It is estimated that fare rises accounted for 13% of the 43% decline in passengers over the last fifteen years, vehicle mileage reductions for 14.3% and that only 15.7% was due to such factors as rising car ownership which are often given as the cause of declining bus patronage.The results, by showing that passengers are far more sensitive to changes in service than they are to fare rises, are a useful guide to the broader public transport policy issues, and the paper concludes that the model does provide a useful method of forecasting public transport demand at a strategic level. Further work is needed, however, to establish more accurate forecasts for different types of passenger and studies are now being undertaken to establish these and to construct an operational forecasting model that can be applied with only limited data requirements     

The role of congestion of transportation networks in urban location and travel choices

Congestion of urban transportation systems results from an equilibrium of location and travel choices with generalized travel costs which increase with vehicle flows as well as other factors. The use of network equilibrium concepts in analyzing urban policies and evaluating alternative plans is examined. Issues arising in the use of network equilibrium models are described, and formulations of urban network prediction and design models are explored.     

Nested logit models for mixed-mode travel in urban corridors

The nested logit (NL) model is a generalisation of the well-known multinomial logit (MNL) model which copes with its “independence from irrelevant alternatives” problem, at the expense of more difficult calibration and use. Mixed-mode movements (i.e. park-and-ride) are by nature not independent of competing single-mode options and have, therefore, traditionally been inadequately modelled in most empirical applications. This paper reports on the specification, estimation, testing and comparison of MNL and NL models using disaggregate data of work trips in an urban corridor, where choice was among several alternatives including mixed-mode options. It was found that the more general NL model was more adequate, not only in theory but in practice. The paper concludes by comparing the disaggregate NL model with previously calibrated aggregate NL models for the same corridor using a different data set.     

An examination of the determinants of day-to-day variability in individuals' urban travel behavior

Day-to-day variability in individuals' travel behavior (intrapersonal variability) has been recognized in conceptual discussions, yet the analysis and modeling of urban travel are typically based on a single day record of each individual's travel. This paper develops and examines hypotheses regarding the determinants of intrapersonal variability in urban travel behavior.Two general hypotheses are formulated to describe the effects of motivations for travel and related behavior and of travel and related constraints on intrapersonal variability in weekday urban travel behavior. Specific hypotheses concerning the effect of various sociodemographic characteristics on intrapersonal variability are derived from these general hypotheses. These specific hypotheses are tested empirically in the context of daily trip frequency using a five-day record of travel in Reading, England.The empirical result support the two general hypotheses. First, individuals who have fewer economic and role-related constraints have higher levels of intrapersonal variability in their daily trip frequency. Second, individuals who fulfil personal and household needs that do not require daily participation in out-of-home activities have higher levels of intrapersonal variability in their daily trip frequency.     

A schedule-based time-dependent trip assignment model for transit networks

A schedule-based time-dependent trip assignment model for transit networks is presented. First the transit network model is formulated using the schedule-based approach, in which the vehicles are assumed to arrive punctually in accordance with a scheduled time-table. Based on a previously developed time-dependent shortest path algorithm, an all-or-nothing network loading procedure is employed to assign the passenger trips onto the network. Both the passenger demand and scheduled time-table are time-varying. This provides a versatile tool for the evaluation of the performance of transit networks subject to peak period loading. A case study using the Mass Transit Railway System in Hong Kong is given to illustrate the potential applications of the model.     

Dynamic user optimal traffic assignment on congested multidestination networks

An equivalent continuous time optimal control problem is formulated to predict the temporal evolution of traffic flow pattern on a congested multiple origin-destination network, corresponding to a dynamic generalization of Wardropian user equilibrium. Optimality conditions are derived using the Pontryagin minimum principle and given economic interpretations, which are generalizations of similar results previously reported for single-destination networks. Analyses of sufficient conditions for optimality and of singular controls are also given. Under the steady-state assumptions, the model is shown to be a proper dynamic extension of Beckmann's mathematical programming problem for a static user equilibrium traffic assignment.     

Estimating travel time functions for urban roads: options and issues

Travel time functions specify the relationship between the travel time on a road and the volume of traffic on the road. Until recently, the parameters of travel time functions were rarely estimated in practice; however, a compelling case can be made for the empirical examination of these functions. This paper reviews, and qualitatively evaluates, a range of options for developing a set of travel time functions. A hierarchy of travel time functions is defined based on four levels of network detail: area, corridor, route and link. This hierarchy is illustrated by considering the development of travel time functions for Adelaide. Alternative sources of data for estimating travel time functions are identified.

In general, the costs and benefits increase as the travel time functions are estimated at finer levels of network detail. The costs of developing travel time functions include data acquisition costs and analysis costs. The benefits include the potential for reducing prediction errors, the degree of application flexibility and the policy sensitivity of the travel time functions.     

Methodologies for exploring the link between urban form and travel behavior

Communities are increasingly looking to urban design and the concept of the New Urbanism as an effective strategy for reducing automobile dependence in suburban areas. While the available empirical evidence suggests that automobile travel is lower in traditional-style neighborhoods, it provides limited insights as to how and why, largely because the research methodologies used have been insufficent for the task. Most of the studies addressing this question fall into three categories: simulation studies, aggregate analyses, and disaggregate analyses. Two other approaches offer greater promise for understanding the relationship between urban form and travel behavior: choice models and activity-based analyses. This paper reviews alternative approaches for exploring the link between urban form and travel behavior, outlines issues and complexities that this research must address, and, finally, suggests that the focus of this research should shift from the search for strategies to change behavior to a search for strategies to provide choices.     

Local online kernel ridge regression for forecasting of urban travel times

Accurate and reliable forecasting of traffic variables is one of the primary functions of Intelligent Transportation Systems. Reliable systems that are able to forecast traffic conditions accurately, multiple time steps into the future, are required for advanced traveller information systems. However, traffic forecasting is a difficult task because of the nonlinear and nonstationary properties of traffic series. Traditional linear models are incapable of modelling such properties, and typically perform poorly, particularly when conditions differ from the norm. Machine learning approaches such as artificial neural networks, nonparametric regression and kernel methods (KMs) have often been shown to outperform linear models in the literature. A bottleneck of the latter approach is that the information pertaining to all previous traffic states must be contained within the kernel, but the computational complexity of KMs usually scales cubically with the number of data points in the kernel. In this paper, a novel kernel-based machine learning (ML) algorithm is developed, namely the local online kernel ridge regression (LOKRR) model. Exploiting the observation that traffic data exhibits strong cyclic patterns characterised by rush hour traffic, LOKRR makes use of local kernels with varying parameters that are defined around each time point. This approach has 3 advantages over the standard single kernel approach: (1) It allows parameters to vary by time of day, capturing the time varying distribution of traffic data; (2) It allows smaller kernels to be defined that contain only the relevant traffic patterns, and; (3) It is online, allowing new traffic data to be incorporated as it arrives. The model is applied to the forecasting of travel times on London’s road network, and is found to outperform three benchmark models in forecasting up to 1 h ahead.     

Store-and-forward based methods for the signal control problem in large-scale congested urban road networks

The problem of designing network-wide traffic signal control strategies for large-scale congested urban road networks is considered. One known and two novel methodologies, all based on the store-and-forward modeling paradigm, are presented and compared. The known methodology is a linear multivariable feedback regulator derived through the formulation of a linear-quadratic optimal control problem. An alternative, novel methodology consists of an open-loop constrained quadratic optimal control problem, whose numerical solution is achieved via quadratic programming. Yet a different formulation leads to an open-loop constrained nonlinear optimal control problem, whose numerical solution is achieved by use of a feasible-direction algorithm. A preliminary simulation-based investigation of the signal control problem for a large-scale urban road network using these methodologies demonstrates the comparative efficiency and real-time feasibility of the developed signal control methods.     

Floating car based travel times for city logistics

City logistics routing requires time-dependent travel times for each network link. We rely on the concept of Floating Car Data (FCD) to develop and provide such travel times. Different levels of aggregation in the determination of time-dependent travel times from a database of historical FCD are presented and evaluated with regard to routing quality. Furthermore, a Data Mining approach is introduced, allowing for a substantial reduction of the volume of input data required for city logistics routing. The different approaches are investigated and evaluated by a huge amount of FCD collected for the urban area of Stuttgart, Germany. The results show that the Data Mining approach enables efficient provision of time-dependent travel times without a significant loss of routing quality for city logistics applications.     

A dynamic stochastic assignment model for the analysis of general networks

The paper adopts the framework employed by the existing dynamic assignment models, which analyse specific network forms, and develops a methodology for analysing general networks. Traffic conditions within a link are assumed to be homogeneous, and the time varying O-D travel times and traffic flow patterns are calculated using elementary relationships from traffic flow theory and link volume conservation equations. Each individual is assumed to select a departure time and a route by trading off the travel time and schedule delay associated with each alternative. A route is considered as reasonable if it includes only links which do not take the traveller back to the origin. The set of reasonable routes is not consistant but depends on the time that an individual decides to depart from his origin. Equilibrium distributions are derived from a Markovian model which describes the evolution of travel patterns from day to day. Numerical simulation experiments are conducted to analyse the impact of different work start time flexibilities on the time dependent travel patterns. The similarity between link flows and travel times obtained from static and dynamic stochastic assignment is investigated. It is shown that in congested networks the application of static assignment results in travel times which are lower than the ones predicted by dynamic assignment.     

Deploying public charging stations for electric vehicles on urban road networks

This paper explores how to optimally locate public charging stations for electric vehicles on a road network, considering drivers’ spontaneous adjustments and interactions of travel and recharging decisions. The proposed approach captures the interdependency of different trips conducted by the same driver by examining the complete tour of the driver. Given the limited driving range and recharging needs of battery electric vehicles, drivers of electric vehicles are assumed to simultaneously determine tour paths and recharging plans to minimize their travel and recharging time while guaranteeing not running out of charge before completing their tours. Moreover, different initial states of charge of batteries and risk-taking attitudes of drivers toward the uncertainty of energy consumption are considered. The resulting multi-class network equilibrium flow pattern is described by a mathematical program, which is solved by an iterative procedure. Based on the proposed equilibrium framework, the charging station location problem is then formulated as a bi-level mathematical program and solved by a genetic-algorithm-based procedure. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the models and provide insights on public charging infrastructure deployment and behaviors of electric vehicles.     

Singapore motorisation restraint and its implications on travel behaviour and urban sustainability

The example of Singapore shows that rapid urban and economic growth does not have to bring traffic congestion and pollution. Singapore has chosen to restrain car traffic demand due to its limited land supply. Transport policy based on balanced development of road and transit infrastructure and restraint of traffic has been consistently implemented for the past 30 years. Combined with land use planning, it resulted in a modern transport system, which is free from major congestion and provides users with different travel alternatives. As the economic growth caused a substantial increase in demand for cars, several pricing policies were introduced with the aim of restraining car ownership and usage. Growth of the vehicle population is now controlled and potentially congested roads are subject to road pricing. These measures help to keep the roads free from major congestion, maintain car share of work trips below 25% and keep the transport energy usage low. Although Singapore conditions are in many aspects unique, its travel demand experience can provide useful lessons for other rapidly growing cities in Asia.

A combined activity/travel choice model for congested road networks with queues

This paper presents a combined activity/travel choice model and proposes a flow-swapping method for obtaining the model's dynamic user equilibrium solution on congested road network with queues. The activities of individuals are characterized by given temporal utility profiles. Three typical activities, which can be observed in morning peak period, namely at-home activity, non-work activity on the way from home to workplace and work-purpose activity, will be considered in the model. The former two activities always occur together with the third obligatory activity. These three activities constitute typical activity/travel patterns in time-space dimension. At the equilibrium, each combined activity/travel pattern, in terms of chosen location/route/departure time, should have identical generalized disutility (or utility) experienced actually. This equilibrium can be expressed as a discrete-time, finite-dimensional variational inequality formulation and then converted to an equivalent "zero-extreme value" minimization problem. An algorithm, which iteratively adjusts the non-work activity location, corresponding route and departure time choices to reach an extreme point of the minimization problem, is proposed. A numerical example with a capacity constrained network is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed model and solution algorithm.     

Optimal offsets for traffic signal systems in urban networks

The paper proposes a binary integer programming model for the computation of optimal traffic signal offsets for an urban road network. The basic theoretical assumptions for the computation of delay on the network are those employed by the main models developed during the last few years. The set of input data coincides with that needed for the Combination Method and its extensions. The model is solved through a branch-and-backtrack method and allows the obtaining of optimal offsets for condensable or uncondensable networks without introducing any special assumption on delay-offset functions, contrary to what occurs within other mathematical programming formulations of the problem. A reduced memory dimension is required by the developed algorithm, which promptly supplies during the computation better and better sub-optimal solutions, very interesting in view of the possible application of the method to real-time control problems. The tests performed show that the method can be applied to networks of practical size.     

The impact of urban form on automobile travel: disentangling causation from correlation

A longstanding question within the field of transportation demand management is the strength of the relationship between urban form and mobility behavior. Although several studies have identified a strong correlation between these variables, there is as yet scant evidence to support policy interventions that target land use as a means of influencing travel. To the contrary, some of the more recent research has cast skepticism on the proposition that the relationship is causative, recognizing the possibility that households endogenously self-select themselves into communities that support their preferences for particular transportation modes. Focusing on individual automobile travel, the present study seeks to contribute to this line of inquiry by estimating econometric models on a panel of travel-diary data collected in Germany between 1996 and 2003. Specifically, we employ the two-part model (2PM)—a procedure involving probit and OLS estimators—to assess the determinants of the discrete decision to use the car and the continuous decision of distance traveled. Beyond modeling variables that capture the urban form features that are commonly suggested to influence mobility behavior, including mixed use and public transit, this study employs instrumental variables to control for potential endogeneity emerging from the simultaneity of residential and mode choices. Unlike much of the work to date, our results suggest that urban form has a causative impact on car use, a finding that is robust to alternative econometric specifications.

An adaptive information fusion model to predict the short-term link travel time distribution in dynamic traffic networks

As intelligent transportation systems (ITS) approach the realm of widespread deployment, there is an increasing need to robustly capture the variability of link travel time in real-time to generate reliable predictions of real-time traffic conditions. This study proposes an adaptive information fusion model to predict the short-term link travel time distribution by iteratively combining past information on link travel time on the current day with the real-time link travel time information available at discrete time points. The past link travel time information is represented as a discrete distribution. The real-time link travel time is represented as a range, and is characterized using information quality in terms of information accuracy and time delay. A nonlinear programming formulation is used to specify the adaptive information fusion model to update the short-term link travel time distribution by focusing on information quality. The model adapts good information by weighing it higher while shielding the effects of bad information by reducing its weight. Numerical experiments suggest that the proposed model adequately represents the short-term link travel time distribution in terms of accuracy and robustness, while ensuring consistency with ambient traffic flow conditions. Further, they illustrate that the mean of a representative short-term travel time distribution is not necessarily a good tracking indicator of the actual (ground truth) time-dependent travel time on that link. Parametric sensitivity analysis illustrates that information accuracy significantly influences the model, and dominates the effects of time delay and the consistency constraint parameter. The proposed information fusion model bridges key methodological gaps in the ITS deployment context related to information fusion and the need for short-term travel time distributions.     

An algorithm for the combined distribution and assignment problem

Much interest has recently been shown in the combination of the distribution and assignment models. In this paper we adopt a generalized Benders' decomposition to solve this combined problem for a system optimized assignment with linear link costs and explicit capacity constraints on link flows. The master problem which is generated is used to show that the combined problem can be viewed as a modified distribution problem, of gravity form, with a minimax instead of a linear objective function. An algorithm for solving the master problem is discussed, and some computational results presented.     

Exploiting the fundamental diagram of urban networks for feedback-based gating

Traffic signal control for urban road networks has been an area of intensive research efforts for several decades, and various algorithms and tools have been developed and implemented to increase the network traffic flow efficiency. Despite the continuous advances in the field of traffic control under saturated conditions, novel and promising developments of simple concepts in this area remains a significant objective, because some proposed approaches that are based on various meta-heuristic optimization algorithms can hardly be used in a real-time environment. To address this problem, the recently developed notion of network fundamental diagram for urban networks is exploited to improve mobility in saturated traffic conditions via application of gating measures, based on an appropriate simple feedback control structure. As a case study, the proposed methodology is applied to the urban network of Chania, Greece, using microscopic simulation. The results show that the total delay in the network decreases significantly and the mean speed increases accordingly.