Sea level and Eddy Kinetic Energy variability in the Bay of Biscay, inferred from satellite altimeter data

Twelve years (1993–2005) of altimetric data, combining different missions (ERS-1/2, TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Envisat), are used to analyse sea level and Eddy Kinetic Energy variability in the Bay of Biscay at different time-scales. A specific processing of coastal data has been applied, to remove erroneous artefacts. Likewise, an optimal interpolation has been used, to create a series of regional Sea Level Anomaly maps, merging data sets from two satellites.The sea level presents a trend of about 2.7 mm/year, which is within the averaged values of sea level rise in the global ocean. Frequency spectra show that the seasonal cycle is the main time-scale affecting the sea level and Eddy Kinetic Energy variability. The maximum sea level occurs in October, whilst the minimum is observed in April. The steric effect is the cause of this annual cycle. The Northern French shelf/slope presents intense variability which is likely due to internal tides. Some areas of the ocean basin are also characterised by intense variability, due to the presence of eddies.The Eddy Kinetic Energy, in turn, is higher from December to May, than during the rest of the year and presents a weak positive trend from April 1995 to April 2005. Several documented mesoscale events, occurring at the end of 1997 and during 1998, are analysed. Altimetry maps prove to be a useful tool to monitor swoddy-like eddies from their birth to their decay, as well as the inflow of seasonal slope water current into the southeastern corner of the Bay of Biscay.     

Variability in hydrographic conditions to the east and northwest of South Georgia, 1996–2001

Six years of high-resolution hydrographic data from the eastern and northwestern sides of South Georgia (southwest Atlantic) are used to study the changing circulation and water mass properties of the region. One year of data from these locations was used previously to describe the oceanographic conditions at those times; using the much greater volume of data now available, we identify which features appear temporally robust and which are transient, and begin addressing topics relating to the forcing of the inter-annual variability and the potential consequences for the local ecosystem. Waters on the shelf and those over the adjacent deep ocean invariably have different hydrographic properties, though the transition between them can be abrupt or gradual. The onshelf/offshelf differences vary greatly from year to year, due to the combined influences of local and remote processes. There are several instances of strong physical coupling between the eastern and northwestern sides of South Georgia; this offers potential for distinguishing physically-induced ecosystems changes separately from biologically-induced ecosystems changes. On the northeast side of the shelf, close to Cumberland Bay, there is evidence of an often intense, but variable, cyclonic circulation that is the result of interaction with the local bathymetry. This may act as a retention mechanism, and enhance local productivity. Two examples of extreme cold anomalies are present in the series of measurements. One of these (in 2000/2001) affected a limited area at the eastern side of the region surveyed and was due to an intrusion of the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front. The other (in early 1998) was due to the combined effects of the passage of a large-scale ocean anomaly that had its origins upstream in the Pacific Ocean, and strong air/sea interaction. Both of these were associated with the strong 1997/1998 El Niño event. Whilst previous studies have observed a link between El Niño forcing and ocean response around South Georgia with a temporal lag of around 3 years, we observe a much more rapid response to the extremely strong 1997/1998 El Niño event. This indicates that the ocean and ecosystem around South Georgia are more immediately susceptible to extreme instances of remote climatic forcing than had been supposed.     

Vulnerability of Caribbean Island Cemeteries to Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that rising seas by the end of this century will increase the severity of coastal flooding and erosion. The Caribbean region is home to many small islands that are vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge. Much of the literature examining impacts of sea level rise in the Caribbean focuses on ecosystems, infrastructure, and recreation. Few studies have examined how sea level rise will impact historic and culturally important places. In an effort to address this research gap, geographic information systems and crowd-sourced, georeferenced photographs were used to build a first-of-its-kind database of 542 Caribbean small island cemeteries. Vulnerable cemeteries were then identified based upon elevation, proximity to the ocean, and the coastal profile. Over one-fifth of the cemeteries surveyed are within 100 m of the coast. The highest concentrations of vulnerable cemeteries are on flat islands such as the Cayman Islands. Yet, some mountainous islands such as Saint Martin also have potentially vulnerable cemeteries. These findings suggest that the bereaved, cemetery managers, and managers of coastal areas that have cemeteries may have additional considerations when making long-term decisions about where and how to bury the deceased.     

Climate Variability and Estuarine Water Resources: A Case Study from Tampa Bay,Florida

Natural variability in the myriad of physical processes that impact and control estuaries occurs at time scales that typically may exceed or partly exceed many monitoring programs. With respect to documenting and monitoring impacts of human influences- on estuaries, it is therefore important to frame the results of short-term monitoring programs within the context of longer term natural variability in the environment. In the Tampa Bay, Florida area, climate variability strongly influences seasonal precipitation, stream flow, and salinity. In particular, El Niño-Southern Oscillation impacts during the winter have the potential to influence both the availability of surface water for water supply withdrawal and the evaluation of the impacts of surface water withdrawals on the ecosystem.     

The Mercator global ocean operational analysis system: Assessment and validation of an 11-year reanalysis

This paper presents Prototype Système 2 Global (PSY2G), the first Mercator global Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) to assimilate along-track sea level anomaly (SLA) satellite data. Based on a coarse resolution ocean model, this system was developed mainly for climatic purposes and will provide, for example, initial oceanic states for coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal predictions. It has been operational since 3 September 2003 and produces an analysis and a two-week forecast for the global ocean every week. The PSY2G system uses an incremental assimilation scheme based on the Cooper and Haines [Cooper, M., Haines, K., 1996. Data assimilation with water property conservation. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 1059-1077.] lifting–lowering of isopycnals. The SLA increment is obtained using an optimal interpolation method then the correction is partitioned into baroclinic and barotropic contributions. The baroclinic ocean state correction consists of temperature, salinity and geostrophic velocity increments and the barotropic correction is a barotropic velocity increment. A reanalysis (1993–2003) was carried out that enabled the PSY2G system to perform its first operational cycle. All available SLA data sets (TOPEX/Poséïdon, ERS2, Geosat-Follow-On, Jason1 and Envisat) were assimilated for the 1993–2003 period. The major objective of this study is to assess the reanalysis from both an assimilation and a thermodynamic point of view in order to evaluate its realism, especially in the tropical band which is a key region for climatic studies. Although the system is also able to deliver forecasts, we have mainly focused on analysis. These results are useful because they give an a priori estimation of the qualities and capabilities of the operational ocean analysis system that has been implemented. In particular, the reanalysis identifies some regional biases in sea level variability such as near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, in the eastern Equatorial Pacific and in the Norwegian Sea (generally less than 1 cm) with a small seasonal cycle. This is attributed to changes in mean circulation and vertical stratification caused by the assimilation methodology. But the model's low resolution, inaccurate physical parameterisations (especially for ocean–ice interactions) and surface atmospheric forcing also contribute to the occurrence of the SLA biases. A detailed analysis of the thermohaline structure of the ocean reveals that the isopycnal lifting–lowering tends to diffuse vertically the main thermocline. The impact on temperature is that the surface layer (0–200 m) becomes cooler whereas in deeper waters (from 500 to 1500 m), the ocean becomes slightly warmer. This is particularly true in the tropics, between 30°N and 30°S. However it can be demonstrated that the assimilation improves the variability in both surface currents and sub-surface temperature in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.     

Land use implications of sea level rise: A case study at myrtle beach,South Carolina

Abstract

the prospect of global warming and consequent sea level rise will have important implications for coastal communities. this article examines the land use implications of alternate sea level rise scenarios on the city of myrtle beach, south carolina. current trends as well as high and low sea level rise scenarios are superimposed on the city's beach profile and near shore contours to estimate the type and value of land development likely to be impacted.

It is found that losses associated with accelerated sea level rise would be particularly high in the city's hotel district and that overall property loss could range from 21 to 60% of the city's total property value. to lessen these potential losses, coastal communities such as myrtle beach must choose among one of three policy options including: (1) barricade the beach, (2) raise the land, and (3) implement a strategic retreat. specific alternatives within each of these options are explored in turn. the article concludes that successful development plans will incorporate ground rules sensitive to and consistent with dynamic coastal processes.     

Application of new parameterizations of gas transfer velocity and their impact on regional and global marine CO2 budgets

One of the dominant sources of uncertainty in the calculation of air–sea flux of carbon dioxide on a global scale originates from the various parameterizations of the gas transfer velocity, k, that are in use. Whilst it is undisputed that most of these parameterizations have shortcomings and neglect processes which influence air–sea gas exchange and do not scale with wind speed alone, there is no general agreement about their relative accuracy.The most widely used parameterizations are based on non-linear functions of wind speed and, to a lesser extent, on sea surface temperature and salinity. Processes such as surface film damping and whitecapping are known to have an effect on air–sea exchange. More recently published parameterizations use friction velocity, sea surface roughness, and significant wave height. These new parameters can account to some extent for processes such as film damping and whitecapping and could potentially explain the spread of wind-speed based transfer velocities published in the literature.We combine some of the principles of two recently published k parameterizations [Glover, D.M., Frew, N.M., McCue, S.J. and Bock, E.J., 2002. A multiyear time series of global gas transfer velocity from the TOPEX dual frequency, normalized radar backscatter algorithm. In: Donelan, M.A., Drennan, W.M., Saltzman, E.S., and Wanninkhof, R. (Eds.), Gas Transfer at Water Surfaces, Geophys. Monograph 127. AGU,Washington, DC, 325–331; Woolf, D.K., 2005. Parameterization of gas transfer velocities and sea-state dependent wave breaking. Tellus, 57B: 87–94] to calculate k as the sum of a linear function of total mean square slope of the sea surface and a wave breaking parameter. This separates contributions from direct and bubble-mediated gas transfer as suggested by Woolf [Woolf, D.K., 2005. Parameterization of gas transfer velocities and sea-state dependent wave breaking. Tellus, 57B: 87–94] and allows us to quantify contributions from these two processes independently.We then apply our parameterization to a monthly TOPEX altimeter gridded 1.5° × 1.5° data set and compare our results to transfer velocities calculated using the popular wind-based k parameterizations by Wanninkhof [Wanninkhof, R., 1992. Relationship between wind speed and gas exchange over the ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 97: 7373–7382.] and Wanninkhof and McGillis [Wanninkhof, R. and McGillis, W., 1999. A cubic relationship between air−sea CO2 exchange and wind speed. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26(13): 1889–1892]. We show that despite good agreement of the globally averaged transfer velocities, global and regional fluxes differ by up to 100%. These discrepancies are a result of different spatio-temporal distributions of the processes involved in the parameterizations of k, indicating the importance of wave field parameters and a need for further validation.     

Greenhouse effect,sea level rise,and coastal zone management

Abstract

Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other gases are expected to warm the earth several degrees in the next century by a mechanism known as the greenhouse effect. Such a warming could cause sea level to rise two to five feet by expanding ocean water, melting mountain glaciers, and perhaps eventually causing polar glaciers to melt and slide into the oceans.

A rise in sea level of even three feet could cause substantial erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers. Fortunately, many of the adverse consequences can be avoided by taking timely measures in anticipation of sea level rise. Nevertheless, many coastal zone managers are reluctant to take these measures until the prospect of sea level rise becomes more certain.

This article examines the implications of future sea level rise and identifies anticipatory measures that may be appropriate today in spite of current uncertainties.     

Resilience of Touristic Island Beaches Under Sea Level Rise: A Methodological Framework

This contribution addresses the need for a simple model for managers to employ when planning strategies for the management of touristic beaches under sea level rise. A methodological framework was developed and tested in two Aegean archipelago islands (Lesvos and Rhodes, Greece). The scheme can represent the status of touristic island beaches, based on easily obtained variables/indicators and projections of beach erosion/retreat under different scenarios of mean sea level rise (MSLR) and extreme events. Information on beach geomorphological characteristics, environmental setting, water quality, management, and services (such as those used in the “Blue Flag” classification) was collated/collected and beach erosion/retreat due to CV & C was estimated through suitable ensembles of cross-shore (1-D) morphodynamic models. A Strength-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT) framework was employed to assist in the selection of indicators and multicriteria analysis used to optimize indicator weights and rank beaches according to their sustainability under sea level rise. Implementation of the framework at the two islands has shown that: the majority of Lesvos and Rhodes beaches (82% of a total of 217 beaches and 58% of a total of 97 beaches, respectively) can be classified as beaches with no, or minimal, human interference, suggesting that under environmentally sound coastal management further touristic development might be afforded; there could be very significant effects of the sea level rise on the carrying and buffering capacities of the most developed (“Blue Flag”) beaches, with some expected even under conservative projections to be completely eroded by 2100, unless technical adaptation measures are taken; and using the proposed framework, touristic beaches can be rapidly ranked in terms of their resilience to sea level rise and their development potential, allowing prioritization of effective management responses.     

Spatial and temporal variability in the pelagic ecosystem of the East Sea (Sea of Japan): A review

The East Sea (Sea of Japan) is a unique marginal sea because it exhibits features of oceanic dynamics of much larger ocean basins. This semi-enclosed basin may be considered as a model or microcosm for understanding of how biological processes and distributions in pelagic ecosystem are interacting with physical processes in highly dynamic ocean regions. This overview summarizes the recent progresses concerning spatial and temporal variability of pelagic ecosystem components form an interdisciplinary point of view. Spatial characteristics of physical environments and biogeography in the region are distinguished mainly by the subpolar front. It was also found that long-term changes in biomass and community structure as well as those in the physical and biological environments are associated with climate variability in the region. We conclude by identifying main needs for the information and researches, particularly regular and long-term sampling, and permanent monitoring if possible.     

In Political Seas: Engaging with Political Ecology in the Ocean and Coastal Environment

The world’s oceans and coasts are awash in a sea of politics. The marine environment is increasingly busy, changing, and a site of degradation, marginalization, injustice, contestation and conflict over declining resources and occupied spaces at local to global scales. Themes of political ecology, such as power and politics, narratives and knowledge, scale and history, environmental justice and equity, are thus salient issues to understand in ocean and coastal governance and management. This subject review examines research on these themes of political ecology in the ocean and coastal environment and reflects on how the insights gained might be applied to governance and management. Political ecology provides important insights into: the influence of power in ocean management and governance processes; the manner in which narratives, knowledge, and scale are used to legitimize and shape policies and management efforts; the effects of historical trajectories on present circumstances, options, and practices; and the nature of inequities and environmental injustices that can occur in the marine environment. Moreover, ocean and coastal researchers, practitioners, and decision makers ought to engage with the political processes and injustices occurring in the ocean. Moving from critical insights to constructive engagements will ensure that political ecology helps to plant seeds of hope in the Anthropocene ocean.     

1/32° real-time global ocean prediction and value-added over 1/16° resolution

A 1/32° global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center. It started running at the Naval Oceanographic Office in near real-time on 1 Nov. 2003 and has been running daily in real-time since 1 Mar. 2005. It became an operational system on 6 March 2006, replacing the existing 1/16° system which ceased operation on 12 March 2006. Both systems use the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with assimilation of sea surface height from satellite altimeters and sea surface temperature from multi-channel satellite infrared radiometers. Real-time and archived results are available online at http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom. The 1/32° system has improvements over the earlier system that can be grouped into two categories: (1) better resolution and representation of dynamical processes and (2) design modifications. The design modifications are the result of accrued knowledge since the development of the earlier 1/16° system. The improved horizontal resolution of the 1/32° system has significant dynamical benefits which increase the ability of the model to accurately nowcast and skillfully forecast. At the finer resolution, current pathways and their transports become more accurate, the sea surface height (SSH) variability increases and becomes more realistic and even the global ocean circulation experiences some changes (including inter-basin exchange). These improvements make the 1/32° system a better dynamical interpolator of assimilated satellite altimeter track data, using a one-day model forecast as the first guess. The result is quantitatively more accurate nowcasts, as is illustrated by several model-data comparisons. Based on comparisons with ocean color imagery in the northwestern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the 1/32° system has even demonstrated the ability to map small eddies, 25–75 km in diameter, with 70% reliability and a median eddy center location error of 22.5 km, a surprising and unanticipated result from assimilation of altimeter track data. For all of the eddies (50% small eddies), the reliability was 80% and the median eddy center location error was 29 km. The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system. This is due to (a) a more accurate initial condition for the forecast and (b) better resolution and representation of critical dynamical processes (such as upper ocean – topographic coupling via mesoscale flow instabilities) which allow the model to more accurately evolve these features in time while running in forecast mode (forecast atmospheric forcing for the first 5 days, then gradually reverting toward climatology for the remainder of the 30-day forecast period). At 1/32° resolution, forecast SSH generally compares better with unassimilated observations and the anomaly correlation of the forecast SSH exceeds that from persistence by a larger amount than found in the 1/16° system.     

Decadal sea level trends in the Bay of Biscay from tide gauges, GPS and TOPEX

Sea level time series derived from TOPEX altimeter and from tide gauge measurements in the Bay of Biscay (Eastern North Atlantic Ocean) are used to investigate the regional sea level rise. Altimetry sea level anomalies are computed from TOPEX measurements and resampled into fixed along track bins in order to obtain consistent records and to approach as close as possible to the coast. Tidal corrections are critical in the estimation of sea level trends; therefore an additional analysis has been carried out in order to identify and correct for residual tidal signals. The obtained mean sea level rise in the region is + 3.09 ± 0.21 mm/year over the period 1993–2002. Tide gauges have been corrected for vertical land motions by means of collocated GPS measurements. GPS-corrected tide gauges and nearby altimetry trends are found to be statistically consistent. The relationship with the atmospheric forcing is also investigated revealing that 15% of this sea level rise is attributed to the atmospheric pressure effects.     

A generalized model of pelagic biogeochemistry for the global ocean ecosystem. Part II: Numerical simulations

This paper presents a global ocean implementation of a multi-component model of marine pelagic biogeochemistry coupled on-line with an ocean general circulation model forced with climatological surface fields (PELAgic biogeochemistry for Global Ocean Simulations, PELAGOS). The final objective is the inclusion of this model as a component in an Earth System model for climate studies. The pelagic model is based on a functional stoichiometric representation of marine biogeochemical cycles and allows simulating the dynamics of C, N, P, Si, O and Fe taking into account the variation of their elemental ratios in the functional groups. The model also includes a parameterization of variable chlorophyll/carbon ratio in phytoplankton, carrying chl as a prognostic variable. The first part of the paper analyzes the contribution of non-local advective–diffusive terms and local vertical processes to the simulated chl distributions. The comparison of the three experiments shows that the mean chl distribution at higher latitudes is largely determined by mixing processes, while vertical advection controls the distribution in the equatorial upwelling regions. Horizontal advective and diffusive processes are necessary mechanisms for the shape of chl distribution in the sub-tropical Pacific. In the second part, the results have been compared with existing datasets of satellite-derived chlorophyll, surface nutrients, estimates of phytoplankton community composition and primary production data. The agreement is reasonable both in terms of the spatial distribution of annual means and of the seasonal variability in different dynamical oceanographic regions. Results indicate that some of the model biases in chl and surface nutrients distributions can be related to deficiencies in the simulation of physical processes such as advection and mixing. Other discrepancies are attributed to inadequate parameterizations of phytoplankton functional groups. The model has skill in reproducing the overall distribution of large and small phytoplankton but tends to underestimate diatoms in the northern higher latitudes and overestimate nanophytoplankton with respect to picoautotrophs in oligotrophic regions. The performance of the model is discussed in the context of its use in climate studies and an approach for improving the parameterization of functional groups in deterministic models is outlined.     

Long-term sea surface temperature baselines—time series, spatial covariation and implications for biological processes

Coastal areas such as estuaries, bays and fjords usually have hydrographic characteristics (e.g., temperature, salinity) which differ from those at larger spatial scales and in offshore areas. The differences can arise if the areas are subject to different climatic forcing or if they are relatively isolated from each other due to topographic and ocean circulation features which inhibit advective inputs of water mass properties. Local differences in hydrographic conditions can therefore potentially limit the applicability of existing long time series of coastally monitored temperatures for addressing questions at large spatial scales, such as the response of species distributions and phenologies to climate change. In this study we investigate the spatial synchrony of long-term sea surface temperatures in the North Sea–Baltic Sea region as measured daily at four coastal sites (Marsdiep, Netherlands; Torungen, Norway; Skagens Reef, Denmark; and Christiansø, Denmark) and in several large offshore areas. All time series, including two series reconstructed and intercalibrated for this study (Skagens Reef and Christiansø, Denmark), began during 1861–1880 and continue until at least 2001. Temperatures at coastal sites co-varied strongly with each other and with opportunistically measured offshore temperatures despite separation distances between measuring locations of 20–1200 km. This covariance is probably due to the influence of large-scale atmospheric processes on regional temperatures and is consistent with the known correlation radius of atmospheric fluctuations (ca. 1000 km). Differences (e. g, long-term trends, amplitude of seasonal variations) between coastal temperatures and those measured in adjacent offshore areas varied nonrandomly over time and were often significantly autocorrelated up to 2 years. These differences suggest that spatial variations in physical oceanographic phenomena and sampling heterogeneities associated with opportunistic sampling could affect perceptions of biological responses to temperature fluctuations. The documentation that the coastally measured temperatures co-vary with those measured opportunistically in offshore areas suggests that the coastal data, which have been measured daily using standardized methods and instruments, contain much of the variability seen at larger spatial scales. We conclude that both types of time series can facilitate assessments of how species and ecosystems have responded to past temperature changes and how they may react to future temperature changes.     

GIS-Based Coastal Behavior Modeling and Simulation of Potential Land and Property Loss: Implications of Sea-Level Rise at Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach,Sydney (Australia)

Rising sea level potentially poses a threat to many coastal areas, thereby possibly affecting coastal environments, including human assets. Taking into account the precau--tionary principle demanded at the Framework Convention for Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, coastal managers and planners are required to evaluate the possibility of both physical and economic impacts of sea-level rise. However, long-term and cost-intensive data capture is often not affordable for a first estimation of general trends. To determine physical and economic impacts on a spatial scale of less than 10 km, a rapid and low-cost method is required. A Geographic Information System (GIS), in combination with readily available data and two coastal behaviour models (the Bruun-GIS Model and the Aggradation Model) was applied to simulate shoreline recession caused by a rise in sea level. In addition, the potential impacts of a 50-year design storm were considered in conjunction with sea-level rise. The monetary vulnerability was assessed and combined with the simulated recession rates. This procedure provides a first estimate on the potential risk a locality (here Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach) may face due to the impacts of sea-level rise and/or coastal storms. Overall, the modelling outcome suggests that long-term erosion problems associated with rising sea level are less significant in comparison with those impacts associated with short-term coastal storm events for Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach.     

Clean Water Act Section 404 and Coastal Marsh Sustainability

The “no net wetland loss” goal has not been met in urban coastal regions where conditions continue to exacerbate wetland losses. Under the Clean Water Act (Section 404) the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and U. S. Environmental Protection Agency share responsibility for regulating placement of fill material in wetlands. The `no discharge of fill' rules threaten coastal wetlands with continuing losses due to effects of changing climate, including rising sea levels, higher storm surges, and flooding. Where inland migration is limited by development, or where sediment accretion rates are lower than the rate of sea level rise, urban wetlands will be lost unless marsh topography is elevated. We explored regulatory and design approaches in recent Hudson-Raritan Estuary (HRE), San Francisco Bay Estuary and coastal Louisiana restorations, including creation of new marshland using dredge material. Questions related to sea level rise, ecological position within the landscape, or potential effects of extreme storm events were not addressed in the HRE restoration designs; these concerns were taken into account in other regions. We suggest benefits of marsh `replenishment' should be acknowledged in Federal regulatory policy and that consistent policies supportive of low-lying coastal marsh preservation in all regions should be enacted.     

Uncertainty analysis of extreme mooring loads associated with environmental contours and peak tension distributions

This paper aims to assess the uncertainty on the extreme mooring loads of floating system considering short-term variability. Two environmental contour approaches based on the inverse First and Second Order Reliability Methods are employed to identify critical sea states that may give rise to extreme loads. The uncertainty related to the construction of environmental contours is addressed including significant differences due to marginal distribution fitting, parameter estimation methods and joint models. Three measured datasets are analysed using a known conditional joint distribution and proposed mixed copula model. 3-h time domain numerical simulation for each sea state is conducted and the characteristic extreme responses of mooring lines subjected to design loads are assessed. The uncertainties due to various statistical models including the average conditional exceedance rate method as well as global maxima, peak-over-threshold method combined with Gumbel distribution, Generalized Extreme Value distribution, Generalized Pareto distribution and 3-parameter Weibull distribution are investigated and quantified. It is observed that marginal distributions, joint models and parameters estimation methods have apparent effect on design loads estimation, and the extreme tensions of the semi-submersible platform shows significant difference using various probabilistic models. The results indicate that those epistemic uncertainties should be account for in the reliability analysis or safety factor calibration for mooring systems.     

The effect of precession-induced changes in the Mediterranean freshwater budget on circulation at shallow and intermediate depth

The Neogene marine sedimentary record of the Mediterranean basin is characterised by the regular occurrence of organic-rich layers or sapropels. These sapropels are known to correlate with the precession cycle: their deposition coincides with precession minima. This correlation is thought to be caused to a large extent by a precession-induced increase in the amount of freshwater reaching the Mediterranean Sea. In the literature, various sources of this extra freshwater have been identified and different mechanisms as to how this freshwater flux leads to sapropels have been proposed. In this study we investigate the effects of precession-induced changes in the freshwater budget using a regional ocean general circulation model of the Mediterranean Sea. Emphasis is on the effects at the surface and at intermediate depth. The forcing of the ocean model is adjusted to precession minimum conditions on a parameter by parameter basis. Novel to our approach is that the value of the required adjustments is taken from a global coupled climate model with which experiments have been performed for the present day (close to precession maximum) and precession minimum. With the ocean model we focus on the extent to which extra runoff from either south (specifically: the river Nile) or north and changes in net precipitation over the sea itself lead to a more stable stratification; this we judge by the associated reduction of the sea surface salinity and mixed layer depth in the regions of intermediate and deep water formation. Our main finding is that the effects of (1) increased discharge of the rivers coming from the north, and (2) the increase in net precipitation over the sea itself, are of equal or greater importance than that of increase in Nile discharge.     

关于进军海工装备市场的思考与对策

通过对世界和我国的海工装备市场竞争态势的分析,提出对我国造船企业进军海工装备市场的几点思考:市场进入的门槛高,决策要谨慎;船舶制造企业要与油气用户业主合作联手;科研、创新开发要更多地瞄准深海技术;海上应急救援装备要加大投入的力度;人才队伍建设是进军海工装备市场的关键。我国各海工企业在向海工市场进军的过程中必须保持清醒的头脑,做到有序发展,避免一哄而上、盲目进军。