A latent class joint mode and departure time choice model for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area

This paper presents a closed-form Latent Class Model (LCM) of joint mode and departure time choices. The proposed LCM offers compound substitution patterns between the two choices. The class-specific choice models are of two opposing nesting structures, each of which provides expected maximum utility feedback to the corresponding class membership model. Such feedback allows switching class membership in response to the changes in choice contexts. The model is used for an empirical investigation of commuting mode and departure time choices in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) by using a large sample household travel survey dataset. The empirical model reveals that overall 38% of the commuters in the GTHA are more likely to switch modes than departure times and 62% of them are more likely to do the reverse. The empirical model also reveals that the average Subjective Value of Travel Time Savings (SVTTS) of the commuters in the GTHA can be as low as 3 dollars if a single choice pattern of departure time choices nested within mode choices is considered. It can also be as high as 67 dollars if the opposite nesting structure is assumed. However, the LCM estimates the average SVTTS to be around 27 dollars in the GTHA. An empirical scenario analysis by using the estimated model indicates that a 50% increase in morning peak period car travel time does not sway more than 4% of commuters from the morning peak period.

     

Route choice and the value of commuting time: An economic model of dichotomous choice

This paper presents an economic model of generalized travel cost and provides an empirical study of the parameters of the cost function. The route-choice model that is estimated combines McFadden's theory of qualitative choice behavior with a function for the value of travel time in which total trip time and the income level are assumed to influence the marginal value of time. The empirical results indicate that, for a sample of commuters in the Chicago metropolitan area in 1972, the value of time is a positive function of total trip time, but is not a function of income.     

An analysis of trip length and land use patterns in the Greater Athens Area

The research described in this paper is an attempt to quantify the impact of a certain distribution of land uses upon trip characteristics — notably trip lengths. The idea is to relate trip lengths classified by mode and purpose to the distance of one trip end from the conurbation centre. The latter is defined as the point which represents a reasonable estimate of the place where the economic, administrative, and cultural life of the urban area is centered.By relating trip lengths to the distance of one trip end from the centre, one could obtain a relation which in effect would be a quantitative expression of the relation between transport and land use. The first application of this idea was in London using the 1966 journey to work data, and it gave quite satisfactory results.The area examined in this research is the Greater Athens Area. The method of analysis is similar to that followed in London so the results of the two studies can be compared. Only work trips are considered for four modes: car, bus, train and all modes (total). It is found that in the case of Athens too, when distance of the workplace from the centre is considered, trip lengths change in smoothly varying ways and a series of mathematical curves can be fitted to the data with an acceptable degree of accuracy. These curves are of the Gamma family having a constant spread factor and varying scale factors for each mode considered. When the distance of the residence end of the trip from the centre is considered, the trip length distributions are not very smooth, a clear mathematical curve cannot be fitted, but again a considerable degree of order can be detected. In addition to the above results a discussion is given on their meaning and the possibilities for future research. In fact the results so far are considered to be the first stage of a more extended research programme which will eventually connect trip length distributions to income and other economic or social parameters in an urban area.The author wishes to express his thanks and appreciation for the comments and constructive criticism made on the various drafts of this paper by M.J.M.     

Hierarchical ordering of nests in a joint mode and destination choice model

This paper seeks to explore the relationship between mode and destination choice in an integrated nested choice model. A fundamental argument can be made that in certain circumstances, the ordering of choices should be reversed from the usual sequence of destination choice preceding mode choice. This results in a travel demand model where travelers are more likely to change destinations than to change transportation modes. For small and medium size urban areas, particularly in the United States, with less well developed public transit systems that draw few choice riders, this assumption makes much more sense than the traditional modeling assumptions. The models used in the new travel modeling system developed for Knoxville, Tennessee utilize this reversed ordering, with generally good results, which required no external tinkering in the logsum parameters.     

Modelling commuting mode choice with explicit consideration of carpool in the choice set formation

This article investigates the carpool mode choice option in the context of overall commuting mode choice preferences. The article uses a hybrid discrete choice modelling technique to jointly model the consideration of carpooling in the choice set formation as well as commuting mode choice together with the response bias corrections through the accommodation of measurement equations. A cross-nested error structure for the econometric formulation is used to capture correlations among various commuting modes and carpool consideration in the choice set. Empirical models are estimated using a data set collected through a week-long commuter survey in Edmonton, Alberta. The empirical model reveals many behavioural details of commuting mode choice and carpooling. Interestingly, it reveals that interactions between various Travel Demand Management (TDM) tools with the carpooling option can be different at different level of decision making (choice set formation level and final choice making level).     

Longitudinal analysis of activity generation in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area

Transportation - This paper presents a longitudinal analysis of activity generation behaviour in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) between 1996 and 2016 for various activity types: work,...     

Modelling the joint choice of activity timing and duration

This paper develops a model of activity and trip scheduling that combines three elements that have to date mostly been investigated in isolation: the duration of activities, the time-of-day preference for activity participation and the effect of schedule delays on the valuation of activities. The model is an error component discrete choice model, describing individuals’ choice between alternative workday activity patterns. The utility function is formulated in a flexible way, applying a bell-shaped component to represent time-of-day preferences for activities. The model was tested using a 2001 data set from the Netherlands. The estimation results suggest that time-of-day preferences and schedule delays associated with the work activity are the most important factors influencing the scheduling of the work tour. Error components included in the model suggest that there is considerable unobserved heterogeneity with respect to mode preferences and schedule delay.     

Unraveling the relationship between trip chaining and mode choice: evidence from a multi-week travel diary

Abstract

Trip chaining (or tours) and mode choice are two critical factors influencing a variety of patterns of urban travel demand. This paper investigates the hierarchical relationship between these two sets of decisions including the influences of socio-demographic characteristics on them. It uses a 6-week travel diary collected in Thurgau, Switzerland, in 2003. The structural equation modeling technique is applied to identify the hierarchical relationship. Hierarchy and temporal consistency of the relationship is investigated separately for work versus non-work tours. It becomes clear that for work tours in weekdays, trip-chaining and mode choice decisions are simultaneous and remain consistent across the weeks. For non-work tours in weekdays, mode choice decisions precede trip-chaining decisions. However, for non-work tours in weekends, trip-chaining decisions precede mode choice decisions. A number of socioeconomic characteristics also play major roles in influencing the relationships. Results of the investigation challenge the traditional approach of modeling mode choice separately from activity-scheduling decisions.     

Modeling co-dependent choice of workplace,residence and commuting mode using an error component mixed logit model

Transportation - This paper develops an error component mixed logit model to analyze the multi-dimensional residential, work and transportation mode choice. It expanse previous studies based on...     

Steering short-term demand for car-sharing: a mode choice and policy impact analysis by trip distance

Transportation - Car-sharing could have substantial benefits. However, there is not enough evidence about if more people choosing car-sharing would reduce private car usage or public transport...     

Development and validation of a direct mode choice model

A direct discrete mode choice model is introduced using relative attributes of competing modes as well as socioeconomic characteristics of travelers. The model is calibrated and validated for two available historic databases in the Dallas–Fort Worth region. The validation is conducted against the outputs of a current nested logit model used by the regional planning organization as well as the observed values based on transit ridership surveys for a newly inaugurated commuter rail service. The calibrated model is applied after the introduction of this new transit mode. The results show that the estimated mode shares by the proposed model have a statistically better consistency with the observed values than the estimates of the conventional nested logit model. Unlike the logit model, the structure of the direct model based on relative attributes also has the advantage of not needing recalibration each time a new travel mode is introduced. The model is found to be easier to calibrate and produces more accurate results than the nested logit model, commonly used by many metropolitan planning organizations.     

A comparison of the sustainability of public and private transportation systems: Study of the Greater Toronto Area

A macroscopic assessment of the impacts of private and public transportation systems on the sustainability of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is undertaken from economic, environmental and social perspectives. The methodology draws upon the urban metabolism and sustainability indicators approaches to assessing urban sustainability, but compares modes in terms of passenger-kms. In assessing the economic sustainability of a city, transportation should be recognized as a product, a driver and a cost. In 1993, the traded costs of automobile use in the GTA were approximately balanced by the value of the automobile parts and assembly industry. But local transit costs 1/3 to 1/6 of the auto costs per person-km, in traded dollars, mainly because local labour is the primary cost.Public transportation is more sustainable from an environmental perspective. Automobile emissions are a major contributor to air pollution, which is a serious contemporary environmental health problem in Toronto. Public transportation modes are less energy intensive (including indirect energy consumption) and produce CO₂ at an order of magnitude lower, although these benefits are partially undermined by under-utilization of transit capacity and the source of electricity generation.The social benefits of automobile use are likely more significant than costs in determining GTA residents' preferential mode choice. The speed and access of auto use provide important economic benefits, e.g. relating to employment and product choice. Nevertheless, offsetting the service attributes of private transportation are large social costs in terms of accidents. The costs of automobile insurance provide one tangible measure of such negative impacts.In order to improve the sustainability of the GTA, innovative approaches are required for improving the performance level of public transportation or substantially reducing the need for the service level provided by automobiles. Efforts such as greater integration of bicycles with public transit, or construction of light-rail systems in wide roadways, might be considered. But to be sustainable overall, a transportation system has to be flexible and adaptable and so must combine a mixture of modes.     

Heterogeneity in marginal value of urban mobility: evidence from a large-scale household travel survey in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area

Transportation - The value of mobility is an unresolved question in transportation economics literature. The advent of ride-hailing services and the emergence of mobility as a service (MaaS) place...     

Semiparametric specification of the utility function in a travel mode choice model

We propose a semiparametric approach that can capture the nonlinearity of deterministic components of the utility functions in discrete choice models and demonstrate it by analyzing travel mode choice behaviour for an interregional trip. The proposed smoothing spline-based specification method can be used to make ex ante evaluations regarding the parametric specifications of the deterministic utility functions in discrete choice models.     

A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip: An addendum

A paper was published in the immediately previous issue of this journal describing a stated preference experiment examining how people are influenced in the selection of a departure time for a hypothetical trip to see a movie. The title was ‘A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip’, Volume 30(3):17–44. Numbers were used to indicate references in the text of the paper and in Table 1 accompanying the text, but these numbers were omitted from the list of references at the end of the paper - making it very difficult to identify specific citations. The list of references from the paper is reprinted below with the reference numbers included. This provides a listing that can be used in conjunction with the text of the paper and Table 1 as published to identify specific citations as intended.     

Household-level commuting mode choices,car allocation and car ownership level choices of two-worker households: the case of the city of Toronto

The paper presents a comprehensive investigation on household level commuting mode, car allocation and car ownership level choices of two-worker households in the City of Toronto. A joint econometric model and a household travel survey dataset are used for empirical investigations. Empirical models reveal that significant substitution patterns exist between auto driving and all other mode choices in two-worker households. It is revealed that, female commuters do not prefer auto driving, but in case of a one car (and two commuters with driving licenses) household, a female commuter gets more preference for auto driving option than the male commuter. Reverse commuting (commuting in opposite direction of home to central business district) plays a critical role on household level car allocation choices and in defining the stability of commuting behaviour of two-worker households. Two worker households in higher income zones and with longer commuting distances tend to have higher car ownership levels than others. However, higher transit accessibility to jobs reduces household car ownership levels. The study reveals that both increasing two worker households and reverse commuting would increase dependency on private car for commuting.     

Shopping trip mode choice of older adults: an application of activity space and hybrid choice models in understanding the effects of built environment and personal goals

Transportation - Rapid growth of the older population worldwide, coupled with their overreliance on automobile and its negative consequences for the environment and for their wellbeing, has...     

An empirical investigation on the dynamic processes of activity scheduling and trip chaining

Investigation of the dynamic processes of activity scheduling and trip chaining has been an interest of transportation researchers over the past decade because of its relevance to the effectiveness of congestion management and intelligent transportation systems. To empirically examine the processes, a computerized survey instrument is developed to collect household activity scheduling data. The instrument is unique in that it records the evolution of activity schedules from intentions to final outcomes for a weekly period. This paper summarizes the investigation on the dynamic processes of activity scheduling and trip chaining based on data collected from a pilot study of the instrument. With the data, ordered logit models are applied to identify factors that are pertinent to the scheduling horizon of activities. Results of the empirical analysis show that a daily schedule often starts with certain activities occupying a portion of the schedule and other activities are then arranged around these pre-occupants. Activities of shorter duration are more likely to be opportunistically inserted in a schedule already anchored by their longer duration counterparts. Persons with children often expect more constraining activities than those with no children. The analysis also shows that female respondents tend to be more structured in terms of how the week is planned. Additionally, analysis of travel patterns reveals that many trip-chains are formed opportunistically. Travel time required to reach an activity is positively related to the scheduling horizon for the activity, with more distant stops being planned earlier than closer locations.     

Factors underlying the connections between active transportation and public transit at commuter rail in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area

Transportation - Encouraging the integration of active transportation with transit is increasingly being pursued as a strategy by transit agencies to boost alternative means to access transit...