Autonomous vehicles in mixed motorway traffic: capacity utilisation,impact and policy implications

In upcoming years, the introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) will reshape the transport system. The transition from a regular to an autonomous transport system, however, will take place over many years and lead to a long period with a mixed driving environment where AVs and regular vehicles (RVs) operate side by side. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the utilisation of the road capacity degrades as a function of heterogeneity in congested motorways. The analysis is based on a dedicated traffic simulator, which enables the investigation of complex dynamic spillback from congestion while allowing for different degrees of heterogeneity. The representation of autonomous vehicles is based on a modified intelligent driver model (IIDM) presented by Treiber et al. (Phys Rev E 62(2):1805–1824, 2000) and Treiber and Kesting (Traffic flow dynamics, Springer, Heidelberg, 2013), while the behaviour of drivers of RVs relies on a stochastic version of the IIDM. Three main conclusions stand out. Firstly, it is shown that in an idealised environment in which AVs operate alone, a substantially improved capacity utilisation can be attained. Secondly, when drivers of RVs are mixed with AVs, capacity utilisation degrades very fast as a function of the share of RVs. Thirdly, it is shown that the improved capacity utilisation of AVs comes in the form of reduced travel time and increased throughput, with indications that travel time reductions are the most important. From a strategical planning perspective, the results underline that dedicated lanes are preferable to attain the positive effects of AVs. Specifically, we compare a stylised situation with three lanes with a share of 33% AVs to a situation with two regular lanes and a single dedicated AV lane. The latter represents a tripling in consumer surplus all other things being equal.

     

Peak period tolls: Precepts and prospects

This article presents the economic rationale for road pricing and provides some scale on the magnitude of peak period tolls that might be justified. It discusses the impacts of such tolls on congestion, air quality and economic development and suggests a long term strategy towards areawide implementation of peak period pricing. It discusses current trends which are increasing the likelihood for implementation of congestion pricing and toll roads in the future. In particular, it discusses some aspects of the 1991 Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) which will eliminate some of the current restraints on congestion pricing and toll highways.Abbreviations ETC Electronic toll collection - FHWA Federal Highway Administration - HOV High occupancy vehicle - ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act - LOS Level of service - TCM Transportation control measure - V/C Volume-to-capacity ratio - VMT Vehicle mile(s) of travel - vphpl Vehicles per hour per lane     

PM2.5 and NOx from traffic: Human health impacts,external costs and policy implications from the Belgian perspective

This article employs an optimized impact pathway approach to marginal external health costs that relies on high-resolution dispersion models calibrated for Belgium and the surrounding areas. Per tonne, the MEHC_PM2.5 is found to be many times larger than MEHC_NOx, which is currently negative. Further, the impact of Belgian PM_2.5 emissions in the immediate area of generation is significantly larger than the impact on more distant areas; the opposite is true for NO_x. The MEHCs of both pollutants are predicted to increase in the coming years. Further analysis of the impacts of PM_2.5 and NO_x reveals that, on average, modern gasoline vehicles outperform their diesel counterparts as far as future emissions are concerned. This contrasts with findings for 2007, which suggested that Euro 5 diesels had fewer associated health costs because of the potential for ozone reduction offered by their NO_x emissions.     

Optimal offsets for traffic signal systems in urban networks

The paper proposes a binary integer programming model for the computation of optimal traffic signal offsets for an urban road network. The basic theoretical assumptions for the computation of delay on the network are those employed by the main models developed during the last few years. The set of input data coincides with that needed for the Combination Method and its extensions. The model is solved through a branch-and-backtrack method and allows the obtaining of optimal offsets for condensable or uncondensable networks without introducing any special assumption on delay-offset functions, contrary to what occurs within other mathematical programming formulations of the problem. A reduced memory dimension is required by the developed algorithm, which promptly supplies during the computation better and better sub-optimal solutions, very interesting in view of the possible application of the method to real-time control problems. The tests performed show that the method can be applied to networks of practical size.     

多方式多类型交通分配模型(MMA)在收费型公路网中的应用研究

在对收费型公路运营模式进行研究的基础上,利用交通规划软件建立了基于广义费用的交通流量分配模型即多方式多类型交通分配模型,通过对模型参数的科学标定和网络的合理设置,得到各类车型在特定网络上的流量分配、路段饱和率以及通行费用,并对此模型的应用效果进行分析,最终为区域高速公路网规划、路段交通量预测提供依据。     

Analytical model of traffic delays under bus signal preemption: Theory and application

Major emphasis has been placed in recent years on the improvement of the operations of existing transportation facilities, using Transportation Systems Management strategies. Accordingly, preferential treatment of high occupancy vehicles is playing an increasing role in transportation projects. This paper deals with one of these strategies, the priority treatment of buses at signalized intersections. Such treatment is aimed at improving the capacity of intersections. The paper develops an analytical model of delays at signalized intersections under a bus preemption scheme. The analysis is presented for the simplest case, i.e., two intersecting one-way streets. The results suggests that the benefits of bus preemption can be increased by properly adjusting several design parameters such as cycle and phase duration of the preempted phases as well as the non-preempted parameters. The model outlined in this paper is applicable to any situation in which stochastic variation is introduced into the signal cycle as well as to bus preemption. Consequently, other potential applications of the model include the design/analysis of traffic actuated signals, and pedestrian actuated signals.     

Analyzing the preference for non-exclusive forms of telecommuting: Modeling and policy implications

This study examines three models of the individual's preference for home- and center-based telecommuting. Issues concerning the estimation of discrete models when the alternatives are non-exclusive are discussed. Two binary logit models are presented, one on the preference to telecommute from a center versus not telecommuting from a center (adjusted ² = 0.24), and the other on the preference to telecommute from a center over telecommuting from home (adjusted ² = 0.64). A nested logit model is also estimated on the following four alternatives: preferring not to telecommute, preferring either form of telecommuting, preferring to telecommute from home, and preferring to telecommute from a center (adjusted ² = 0.35).The results of the models illustrated the importance of attitudinal measures in measuring an individual's preference to telecommute. Oblique factor scores representing workplace interaction, stress, workaholism, internal control, and commute stress were statistically significant in some or all of the models. Other explanatory variables which were found to be consistently significant were education, job suitability, and age. Most respondents preferred either to telecommute from home or were indifferent between either form of telecommuting, which raises the question as to whether there really is a sizeable market niche to be filled by telecommuting centers, and hence whether they may make a significant contribution to transportation demand reduction.     

Analytical and grid-free solutions to the Lighthill-Whitham-Richards traffic flow model

In this article, we propose a computational method for solving the Lighthill-Whitham-Richards (LWR) partial differential equation (PDE) semi-analytically for arbitrary piecewise-constant initial and boundary conditions, and for arbitrary concave fundamental diagrams. With these assumptions, we show that the solution to the LWR PDE at any location and time can be computed exactly and semi-analytically for a very low computational cost using the cumulative number of vehicles formulation of the problem. We implement the proposed computational method on a representative traffic flow scenario to illustrate the exactness of the analytical solution. We also show that the proposed scheme can handle more complex scenarios including traffic lights or moving bottlenecks. The computational cost of the method is very favorable, and is compared with existing algorithms. A toolbox implementation available for public download is briefly described, and posted at http://traffic.berkeley.edu/project/downloads/lwrsolver.     

The treatment of traffic in the Dutch environmental outlooks: the role of science in policy making and policy evaluation

The Dutch National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection publishes Environmental Outlooks in which 25‐year projections are made. These Outlooks quantifying the environmental problems, form the scientific basis for Dutch environmental policy. Traffic and transport is one of the main sectors causing environmental problems. The emissions and energy use of all relevant categories (road traffic, non‐road traffic) are based on model simulations with models. This paper describes the main models used.

If present policy is implemented only a minority of the environmental targets will be met.

If a sustainable transport system for the Netherlands means a large reducton in CO₂ emissions and energy use after 2010 a stronger emphasis on both technical and non‐technical measures (such as land‐use planning combined with public transport improvements) for the period until 2010 is needed than proposed in the Second Transport Structure Plan, unless a sustainable energy source becomes available.     

Optimization of traffic demand management policy in China: towards a sustainable mode split

The rapid increase in private car use in large metropolitan areas has led to irrational travel mode splits and severe traffic problems. Traffic demand management (TDM) is an effective policy to achieve a more sustainable development of traffic systems. This study analyzes the relationships between TDM policy, mode split, and travel mode choice using Stackelberg game theory. Then, using 0–1 programming, it establishes a combination of TDM policy instruments that can achieve a more sustainable mode split in a city and provides a case study in China. The method presented in this research has strong theoretical implications for TDM policymakers.     

Access control policies without inside queues: Their properties and public policy implications

An access control policy that eliminates all queues beyond the entry points to a network has obvious benefits, which include smooth travel and predictable travel times inside the network. Yet it has never been proven, to the best of our knowledge, whether excluding inside queues yields sub-optimal network performance or, in other words, allowing inside queues can actually further reduce the system travel cost. Moreover, it is not clear whether an optimal control policy derived from efficiency considerations can also be a fair policy to all road users. This paper provide answers to these questions in the context of a monocentric network. By analyzing the structure of the access control problem considering all feasible policies (with/without inside queues), we show that the minimal system cost realizable by access control can be obtained without directly solving a non-convex optimization program, and can indeed always be achieved by a control policy excluding all of the inside queues. These optimal policies are defined by a polyhedral set and a Finite Generation Algorithm can be applied to derive the analytical form of this set. The optimal policies are not unique in general, thus making it possible to achieve both minimal system cost and fairness simultaneously.     

Second best toll and capacity optimisation in networks: solution algorithm and policy implications

This paper looks at the first and second best jointly optimal toll and road capacity investment problems from both policy and technical oriented perspectives. On the technical side, the paper investigates the applicability of the constraint cutting algorithm for solving the second best problem under elastic demand which is formulated as a bilevel programming problem. The approach is shown to perform well despite several problems encountered by our previous work in Shepherd and Sumalee (Netw. Spat. Econ., 4(2): 161–179, 2004). The paper then applies the algorithm to a small sized network to investigate the policy implications of the first and second best cases. This policy analysis demonstrates that the joint first best structure is to invest in the most direct routes while reducing capacities elsewhere. Whilst unrealistic this acts as a useful benchmark. The results also show that certain second best policies can achieve a high proportion of the first best benefits while in general generating a revenue surplus. We also show that unless costs of capacity are known to be low then second best tolls will be affected and so should be analysed in conjunction with investments in the network.

Applications of wavelet transform for analysis of freeway traffic: Bottlenecks, transient traffic, and traffic oscillations

This paper demonstrates the capabilities of wavelet transform (WT) for analyzing important features related to bottleneck activations and traffic oscillations in congested traffic in a systematic manner. In particular, the analysis of loop detector data from a freeway shows that the use of wavelet-based energy can effectively identify the location of an active bottleneck, the arrival time of the resulting queue at each upstream sensor location, and the start and end of a transition during the onset of a queue. Vehicle trajectories were also analyzed using WT and our analysis shows that the wavelet-based energies of individual vehicles can effectively detect the origins of deceleration waves and shed light on possible triggers (e.g., lane-changing). The spatiotemporal propagations of oscillations identified by tracing wavelet-based energy peaks from vehicle to vehicle enable analysis of oscillation amplitude, duration and intensity.     

Uncovering travel and charging patterns of private electric vehicles with trajectory data: evidence and policy implications

Transportation - The market penetration rate of electric vehicle (EV) is on the rise globally. However, the use behaviors of private EVs have not been well understood, in part due to the lack of...     

The dynamics of traffic assignment and traffic control: A theoretical study

The paper considers traffic assignment, with traffic controls, in an increasingly dynamic way. First, a natural way of introducing the responsive policy, P_o, into steady state traffic assignment is presented. Then it is shown that natural stability results follow within a dynamical version of this static equilibrium model (still with a constant demand). We are able to obtain similar stability results when queues are explicitly allowed for, provided demand is constant. Finally we allow demand to vary with time; we consider the dynamic assignment problem with signal-settings now fixed. Here we assume that vehicles are very short and that deterministic queueing theory applies, and show that the time-dependent queueing delay at the bottleneck at the end of a link is a monotone function of the time-dependent input profile to the bottleneck. We have been unable to obtain results when dynamic demand and responsive signal control are combined.     

Assessment of product debundling trends in the US airline industry: Customer service and public policy implications

This paper reviews product debundling trends that have occurred in the US airline industry. Multiple sources of ancillary fees related to ticketing refunds and exchanges, checked baggage, on-board pets, preferred and/or advanced seating assignments, frequent flyer ticket redemptions, and day of departure standby policies are reviewed. Despite the fact that both low cost and network carriers stress the importance of future ancillary fees in their investor reports, our assessment suggests that these fees will be more broadly adopted by low cost carriers. We anticipate that many network carriers will eliminate ancillary fees, particularly as they begin to recognize how these fees can impact other system performance objectives such as minimizing the number of misconnecting passengers. We estimate that the debundling phenomenon has diluted revenues to the US Airport and Airways Trust Fund by at least 5%.     

Roadway and traffic characteristics for bicycling

The promotion of bicycle transportation includes the provision of suitable infrastructure for cyclists. In order to determine if a road is suitable for bicycling or not, and what improvements need to be made to increase the level of service for bicycles on specific situations, it is important to know how cyclists perceive the characteristics that define the roadway environment. The present paper describes research developed to define which roadway and traffic characteristics are prioritized by users and potential users in the evaluation of quality of roads for bicycling in urban areas of Brazilian medium-sized cities. A focus group discussion identified 14 attributes representing characteristics that describe the quality of roads for bicycling in Brazilian cities. In addition, an attitude survey was applied with individuals to assess their perception on the attributes, along with the importance given to each one of them. The results were analyzed through the Method of Successive Intervals Analysis, which allows the transformation of categorical data into an interval scale. The analysis suggests that both the roadway and traffic characteristics related to segments and those related to intersections are important to the survey respondents. The five most important attributes, in their opinion, are: (1) lane width; (2) motor vehicle speed; (3) visibility at intersections; (4) presence of intersections; and (5) street trees (shading). Therefore, the research suggests that to promote bicycle use in Brazilian medium-sized cities, these attributes must be prioritized.     

Impacts of the urban parking system on cruising traffic and policy development: the case of Zurich downtown area,Switzerland

Transportation - Cruising-for-parking is a common phenomenon in many urban areas worldwide. Properly understanding and mitigating cruising can reduce travel times, alleviate traffic congestion, and...     

Stochastic cell transmission model (SCTM): A stochastic dynamic traffic model for traffic state surveillance and assignment

The paper proposes a first-order macroscopic stochastic dynamic traffic model, namely the stochastic cell transmission model (SCTM), to model traffic flow density on freeway segments with stochastic demand and supply. The SCTM consists of five operational modes corresponding to different congestion levels of the freeway segment. Each mode is formulated as a discrete time bilinear stochastic system. A set of probabilistic conditions is proposed to characterize the probability of occurrence of each mode. The overall effect of the five modes is estimated by the joint traffic density which is derived from the theory of finite mixture distribution. The SCTM captures not only the mean and standard deviation (SD) of density of the traffic flow, but also the propagation of SD over time and space. The SCTM is tested with a hypothetical freeway corridor simulation and an empirical study. The simulation results are compared against the means and SDs of traffic densities obtained from the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of the modified cell transmission model (MCTM). An approximately two-miles freeway segment of Interstate 210 West (I-210W) in Los Ageles, Southern California, is chosen for the empirical study. Traffic data is obtained from the Performance Measurement System (PeMS). The stochastic parameters of the SCTM are calibrated against the flow-density empirical data of I-210W. Both the SCTM and the MCS of the MCTM are tested. A discussion of the computational efficiency and the accuracy issues of the two methods is provided based on the empirical results. Both the numerical simulation results and the empirical results confirm that the SCTM is capable of accurately estimating the means and SDs of the freeway densities as compared to the MCS.     

Financing congressional earmarks: Implications for transport policy and planning

This research documents the primary strategies used by the US Congress to fund transportation earmarks from the early 1990s to the mid-2000s. It draws on careful analysis of funding bills and primary and secondary sources including government reports, industry and policy newsletters, scholarly articles, and publicly available data on earmarks. It is also informed by interviews with transportation stakeholders involved with earmarks at federal, state, and regional levels. By detailing how Congress pays for earmarks, I show that earmarks do more to redistribute than add to existing transportation resources, and that the intricacy of Congressional funding maneuvers can make earmarks’ fiscal impacts hard to discern. Several implications follow for transportation policy and practice. First, critiques that earmarks increase federal transportation spending are misplaced. While such claims make it easy to discredit national investment in transportation, skepticism is in order when earmarks are invoked to throw out the baby with the bathwater. Second, earmarks’ true costs are related not to increased deficits but rather to opportunity costs incurred when unplanned earmarks replace other investments, particularly projects identified through regional and state planning or competitive selection by an executive agency. Finally, this work suggests productive directions for future earmark reform, such as limiting earmarks to projects in regional or state plans and making explicit for any earmarks in a bill the funding mechanisms that support them. Such steps could lessen the opportunity costs (and administrative inefficiencies) of earmarks, increase transparency in earmarking, and potentially make the practice less objectionable if used to facilitate passage of the long overdue surface transportation authorization bill.