Study on simulation modeling and evaluation of equipment maintenance

Aiming at the actual demand for the maintenance support of new general equipments, this paper analyzes the structure and circulation of maintenance support system, builds the simulation model of running process by entity flow chart method, and constructs the basic frame of the simulation model. The generating method of random variables and the advancing process of the simulation clock are described, and the accurate prediction of maintenance equipment is realized. Moreover, the material readiness rate is analyzed in statistics objective to evaluate the simulation result. The research is of significance for improving the efficiency of equipment maintenance and the promotion of material readiness rate.     

基于Monte Carlo仿真的地铁车辆系统可靠性研究

论文在地铁车辆系统失效模式与影响分析（FMECA）的基础上,考虑到地铁车辆系统故障率较低,故障状态枚举方法难以获得精确的随机状态,故运用蒙特卡洛（Monte Carlo）改进算法模拟仿真了地铁车辆系统设备单元发生故障的实际过程,并给出仿真的一般求解方法．针对地铁车辆系统故障模式及故障持续时间,构建了其可靠性的评估指标,应用实例数据进行了分析计算,得出了稳态下的系统可靠性结果．研究成果对地铁车辆运营及维修管理均具有一定的参考价值．     

基于Monte Carlo法的山区路网应急中心选址

阐述了灾时山区路网各路段组成单元通行概率的分析方法,采用Monte Carlo模拟法对山区路网连通可靠度进行分析和计算,并通过概率解析法来检验Monte Carlo模拟法的计算精度。采用Monte Carlo模拟法分析路网节点间连通可靠度,提出了灾时山区路网应急救护中心优化选址方法。最后,通过实例阐述其计算过程。结果表明:采用Monte Carlo模拟法分析山区路网交通节点间的连通可靠度,找出灾时山区路网连通薄弱环节,为山区应急救护中心优化选址提供依据。     

基于Monte Carlo法的山区路网应急中心选址

阐述了灾时山区路网各路段组成单元通行概率的分析方法,采用Monte Carlo模拟法对山区路网连通可靠度进行分析和计算,并通过概率解析法来检验Monte Carlo模拟法的计算精度.采用Monte Carlo模拟法分析路网节点间连通可靠度,提出了灾时山区路网应急救护中心优化选址方法.最后,通过实例阐述其计算过程.结果表...     

基于蒙特卡罗模拟的交通状态辨识

提出了一种基于蒙特卡罗模拟的利用交通流参数实现交通状态辨识的方法.采 用 FANNY 算法实现了四种交通状态的聚类分析;利用蒙特卡罗模拟方法建立了 SVC 交 通状态辨识模型;分别构建了固定窗口模型和滑动窗口模型对交通状态进行辨识并综合 评价.分析结果表明：该方法能够对实时交通流参数进行准确辨识,尤其是构建的滑动窗 口模型,对交通状态辨识平均精度、召回率和 F 度量分别为 97.98%、94.64%和 96.21%.本方 法可为分析高速公路交通状态演化规律和发展趋势,建立预测预警、应急处置和信息发 布等应急运行机制提供科学方法和数据支撑.     

基于特征正交分解的桥梁风场模拟

推导出了随机过程特征正交分解计算公式.为提高原型谱表示法的计算速度,将特征正交分解的强形式,即基于功率谱矩阵的随机过程特征正交分解(SPT)引入到谱表示法中,代替原有的对功率谱矩阵的Cho lesky分解,并给出了实用的模拟公式.该算法可用FFT加速.结合模态截断技术,POD的引进可节省谱表示法模拟的计算量.通过算例,定义了风的吹动模态,说明了风场SPT的明确的物理意义,同时模拟方法的有效性亦得到验证.     

Monte carlo model in metal recrystallization simulation

Some new advices are proposed for Monte Carlo model of recrystallization annealing simulation, including an additional recovery process, a new stored energy distribution, a more advanced nucleation model and a conversion probability of site orientation. Then a Monte Carlo model is established absorbing the above improvements, and used to isothermal annealing simulation of 1060 pure aluminum cold-rolled sheet. For contrast, a recrystallization annealing experiment of 1060 pure aluminum is carried out at the same time. The results show that the 1060 aluminum alloy in the annealing experiment produces obvious recrystallization, and the grain morphology of recrystallization is similar to isometric. The new model can effectively simulate the nonhomogeneous nucleation process and the microstructure evolution of 1060 industrial pure aluminum in annealing, and the simulated recrystallization kinetics curve is similar to the theoretical curve. The Avrami exponent coincides with the experimental result but is lower than the theoretical value of 2. As the Monte Carlo model does not consider the preferential growth orientation, some simulated results are not completely consistent with that from experiments.     

Influence of the inverse-time protection relays on the voltage dip index

The probability-assessment analyses on the characteristic value of voltage dip by using Monte Carlo stochastic modeling method to stimulate the randomness of the short circuit fault are introduced. Using Matlab and Power Systems CAD （PSCAD）, we design control interface which combines the electromagnetic transient simulation with the Monte Carlo method. Specifically, the designing of interface which is meant to employ the method of Matlab programming to control the electromagnetic transients including direct current （EMTDC） simulation is introduced. Furthermore, the influences of the protection devices on the voltage dip to ensure the authenticity and the referential reliability are simulated. A system with the inverse-time protection devices equipped on each line which can coordinate together is designed to cut off the short-circuit fault. The voltage dip of the designed system is assessed by the pre- and post-system average root mean square （RMS） variation frequency index, and the voltage dip index is compared with the Information Technology Industry Council （IT1C） curves. The simulation results demonstrate that the inverse-time relay protection equipments are well-coordinated, and the severity and the range of the voltage dip are influenced by the cooperation of the equipped inverse-time protection devices.     

基于LJ-GCEMC的炭化木纤维滤芯超微粒子吸附模拟

炭化微米木纤维(CMWF)滤芯不但绿色环保、成本低、净化效率高,而且特有的活性炭性质使其对柴油机排放中的超微碳烟颗粒具有很强的吸附能力。分析炭化微米木纤维滤芯及柴油车排放颗粒物特性,利用混合Lennard Jones势能——巨正则系综蒙特卡罗法(混合LJ-GCEMC)模拟超微碳烟颗粒在炭化微米木纤维活性炭孔中的吸附,结果表明,CMWF滤芯的孔径范围可以确定为320⁴20 nm之间,孔径过小或过大都会阻碍积聚态粒子吸附数密度的增加;模拟结果也表明积聚态粒子吸附数密度随压力的增加而增加,而随温度的升高略有减少。     

Uncertainty analysis of value for money assessment for public-private partnership projects

In recent years, private sectors are encouraged to take an active part in franchising of urban infrastructure investments and operations, which promotes the rapid development of public-private partnership (PPP) in infrastructure and public service supply. Value for money (VFM) assessment has been officially proposed to provide a reference for selection of projects planning to adopt PPP. Based on the bottlenecks of VFM application in China and the uncertainties for urban infrastructure PPP projects, a discounted cash flow (DCF) model is established for VFM of infrastructure PPP projects. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation model is established on the basis of uncertainty factors for VFM. Through the analysis of Huai’an trams PPP project, coping strategies of uncertainties for VFM are put forward. Findings of the research may propel the establishment of a complete VFM evaluation system for PPP projects. Key instructional functions of VFM during the process of decision-making can be brought into full play and PPP may develop orderly.     

不确定箱重下内河集装箱班轮航线配载决策

与集装箱海运相比内河集装箱班轮运输具有其独特性,同时对于内贸箱而言,货主订舱时箱重信息的不确定性导致其航线配载决策变得更加复杂.本文考虑不确定箱重影响,以最小化航线班轮堆栈占用数量为目标,构建内河集装箱班轮航线配载决策的随机规划模型.为实现求解,基于随机规划理论,采用机会约束描述随机约束,将随机规划模型转化为随机机会约束规划模型,并设计混合邻域搜索算法求解.算法由蒙特卡罗随机模拟、神经元网络训练及邻域搜索启发式3个部分组成.算例研究表明,混合邻域搜索算法的鲁棒性较好,可实现配载计划对不确定因素的有效吸收.     

基于HAM的汽车乘员约束系统多参数优化

针对汽车乘员约束系统高度非线性且难于求解最优值的特点,提出全局敏感性分析结合混合元模型的优化方法,通过蒙特卡罗模拟在整个设计空间内采样,以元模型代替仿真模型来完成设计参数的敏感性分析,并将分析获得的信息用于混合元模型优化（hybrid and adaptive metamodeling method,HAM）,将二阶多项式响应面、Kriging模型、径向基函数三种元模型有机结合,自适应选择最佳的元模型进行寻优.搜索过程中元模型不断更新与重建,逐渐提高关键区域的精度,从而快速寻找到全局最优解.对某工程实例的优化结果表明该方法是有效的.     

牵引变电所馈线电流的概率模型

基于随机过程理论,采用数值分析方法,通过对大量实测数据的统计分析,用β-函数拟合牵引变电所馈线电流的概率密度.采用蒙特卡罗法,获得了牵引变电所馈线电流的子样,为牵引变电所馈线电流的过程分析提供了大量信息.牵引变电所馈线电流的仿真结果与实测数据的比较表明,二者的统计规律基本相同,说明所采用的方法是有效的.     

基于Monte Carlo模拟的Mixed Logit模型求解研究

Mixed Logit模型因能有效地避免其他离散选择模型的限制而被广泛地运用于交通领域,但由于它概率形式的非封闭性而导致了复杂的求解过程。从理论上证明利用Monte Carlo模拟方法求解Mixed Logit模型具有一定的合理性,并给出具体的求解步骤,可有效简化Mixed Logit模型的求解过程。     

Modelling upgrading maintenance policy in the one-dimensional renewing warranty period

In the one-dimensional renewing warranty period, the quality of the spares for product is likely to be improved during the warranty period. Therefore, upgrading maintenance becomes more and more common. Then the manufacturers (customers) may have to decide whether or not to provide (buy) the warranty considering upgrading maintenance. This paper presents a mathematical model considering upgrading maintenance for products with multiple failure modes. Upgrading maintenance is taken into account with the assumption that the warranted item is upgraded one time during the warranty cycle. The upgrading maintenance is carried out, when the corrective maintenance is taken place. After upgrading maintenance, the high-quality spares are used to replace the failed item. In the numerical example, the results of the models are calculated. Monte Carlo simulation results are compared with the analytical results to demonstrate the correctness and efficiency of the proposed models considering upgrading maintenance.     

用蒙特卡洛法分析重庆至宜昌段月客流的概率分布

结合长江航务管理局实测统计的2006年-2009年各航段月客流量数据,运用蒙特卡洛等方法,对重庆至宜昌段总月客流量进行了模拟分析,并绘出了其概率分布函数图和概率密度分布图,得出重庆至宜昌段总月客流量近似呈正态分布。     

一种机动目标的自适应跟踪算法

通过分析"当前"统计模型采取固定机动加速度最大值在目标跟踪中的不足,引入模糊逻辑技术,提出了一种基于"当前"统计模型的自适应跟踪算法.该算法实现了目标机动加速度最大值随机动特性的自适应调整,从而实现了系统状态噪声方差的自适应调整,提高了系统的跟踪性能.对两种典型的目标机动形式进行了Monte Carlo仿真研究,结果表明了新算法对于解决机动目标跟踪问题的有效性.     

DEPLETION POTENTIAL OF COLLOIDS: A DIRECT SIMULATION STUDY

IntroductionWhen two big hard spheres suspended in a flu-id of small hard colloidal sphere systems,the bigspheres will attracteach other when the separationbetween the big spheres is about or less than thesmall sphere diameter.The physical picture of thisattractive interaction is clear,when small particlesare depleted from the space between big spheresthe pressure of other small particles will push thebig spheres together and an attraction arise.Thiscan also be understood by the entropy argume…     

基于Monte Carlo的行程时间可靠性研究

从分析行程时间可靠性的概念及其重要性入手,提出了路段、路径、OD对以及系统行程时间可靠性的定量计算方法.在路段通行能力随机变化的条件下,基于Monte Carlo仿真建立了行程时间可靠性的求解算法.考虑到行程时间可靠性与出行者路径选择的相互作用,该方法将基于行程时间可靠性的交通分配纳入到行程时间可靠性的评价之中.用一个简单算例进行测试,结果表明该方法能够对行程时间可靠性进行合理评定.     

Research on network maintenance strategy selection based on analytic hierarchy process and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution algorithm

Network maintenance strategy selection is a multi-objective decision making topic. It mostly depends on the uncertainty and fuzziness of decision makers and conditions. In this paper, based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), TOPSIS partial order method is proposed to choose the optimal maintenance strategy. This method uses AHP to determine the weights of evaluation indexes. The optimal maintenance strategy choice is given as an example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.