基于Petri网考虑中介状态的机械系统失效相关可靠性分析

机械系统因其各子系统、各部件、各单元之间的相互复杂关系,容易受到自身结构与人为因素的影响,导致其发生失效,严重影响了机械系统的可靠性.在利用Petfi网模型对机械系统分析的基础上,并引入"安全-中介-失效"3级工作模式,从安全、中介、失效3个方面来反映机械系统的可靠(完全正常工作)、可靠与失效的中介过渡、失效(完全不能...     

Numerical simulation to reliability analysis of fault-tolerant repairable system

In the traditional method for the reliability analysis of fault-tolerant system, the system structure is described by means of binary decision diagram (BDD) and Markov process, and then the reliability indexes are calculated. However, as the size of system augments, the size of state space will increase exponentially. Additionally, Markov approach requires that the failure and repair time of the components obey an exponential distribution. In this study, by combining dynamic fault tree (DFT) and numerical simulation based on the minimal sequence cut set (MSCS), a new method to evaluate reliability of fault-tolerant system with repairable components is proposed. The method presented does not depend on Markov model, so that it can effectively solve the problem of the state-space combination explosion. Moreover, it is suitable for systems whose failure and repair time obey an arbitrary distribution. Therefore, our method is more flexible than the traditional method. At last, an example is given to verify the method.     

Reliability Copula Model for Wind Turbine Gearbox Based on Failure Correlation

On the basis of each gear’s failure correlation, the reliability Copula model of a wind turbine gearbox is established and a 1.5 MW wind turbine gearbox is taken as the research object. Firstly, based on the dynamic reliability model of mechanical parts, each gear’s life distribution function of a wind turbine gearbox is obtained.The life distribution function can be used as the marginal distributions of the system’s joint distribution. Secondly,Copula function is introduced to describe the failure correlation between parts, and the appropriate Copula function is selected according to the shape characters of Copula probability density function. Finally, the wind turbine gearbox system is divided into three parts according to the failure correlation of each gear. The Sklar theorem and the thought of step by step analysis are used to obtain the reliability Copula model for a wind turbine gearbox based on failure correlation.     

Reliability analysis of electrical system of computer numerical control machine tool based on bayesian networks

The core of computer numerical control (CNC) machine tool is the electrical system which controls and coordinates every part of CNC machine tool to complete processing tasks, so it is of great significance to strengthen the reliability of the electrical system. However, the electrical system is very complex due to many uncertain factors and dynamic stochastic characteristics when failure occurs. Therefore, the traditional fault tree analysis (FTA) method is not applicable. Bayesian network (BN) not only has a unique advantage to analyze nodes with multiply states in reliability analysis for complex systems, but also can solve the state explosion problem properly caused by Markov model when dealing with dynamic fault tree (DFT). In addition, the forward causal reasoning of BN can get the conditional probability distribution of the system under considering the uncertainty; the backward diagnosis reasoning of BN can recognize the weak links in system, so it is valuable for improving the system reliability.     

Bayesian reliability assessment and degradation modeling with calibrations and random failure threshold

A degradation model with a random failure threshold is presented for the assessment of reliability by the Bayesian approach. This model is different from others in that the degradation process is proceeding under pre-specified periodical calibrations. And here a random threshold distribution instead of a constant threshold which is difficult to determine in practice is used. The system reliability is defined as the probability that the degradation signals do not exceed the random threshold. Based on the posterior distribution estimates of degradation performance, two models for Bayesian reliability assessments are presented in terms of the degradation performance and the distribution of random failure threshold. The methods proposed in this paper are very useful and practical for multi-stage system with uncertain failure threshold. This study perfects the degradation modeling approaches and plays an important role in the remaining useful life estimation and maintenance decision making.     

基于首次穿越破坏的TMD体系频域可靠性分析

为了研究可靠度的频域特性及TMD(tuned mass damper)体系减震特性,基于首次穿越破坏准则,推导了结构在随机激励下关于谱矩截止频率的概率分布计算公式,采用向前差分方法求解关于频域的概率密度,利用概率分布计算公式分析了TMD结构体系可靠度的频域概率信息.结果表明:可靠度的频域概率密度为负值,且随着频带变宽频域可靠度趋近于直接按照首次穿越破坏准则的计算值;结构无控时前两阶频率处的可靠度下降比例为59.23%和35.45%, TMD结构体系的相应比例为34.54%和55.92%,从频域可靠度的角度表明了TMD结构体系主要控制一阶振型,并体现了减震的可靠性.      

Simulation on Reliability Enhancement Testing Technology of Ramming System

Ramming system is the key device to guarantee the firing speed of self-propelled gun. Based on traditional reliability enhancement testing method, a new kind of reliability enhancement testing simulation method of ramming system is put forward firstly. In CAD software Pro/E and dynamic simulation software ADAMS, the virtual prototype of ramming system is established. In EASY5 software, the corresponding hydraulic system and control system models are built. The reliability enhancement testing virtual environment of ramming system is developed using the mechanical-electrical-hydraulic co-simulation technology. Based on the load spectra provided by virtual prototype, and the stress distribution provided by finite element analysis and material's S-N curve(S is fatigue strength, N is fatigue life), a model of fatigue enhancement coefficient is established through the failure mechanism analysis. The simulation processes and simulation results show the feasibility of reliability enhancement testing based on virtual prototype, and provide sufficient theory reference for structure improvement and optimization of ramming system.     

基于响应面法的连续刚构桥梁体系可靠度分析

为了解决分析桥梁结构可靠度时功能函数不存在显式的问题,在现有响应面法的基础上,提出了改进的响应面法;利用有限元软件,对某高墩大跨连续刚构进行了受力分析;选取压应力、拉应力和稳定性失效3类失效模式,在改进的响应面法基础上,利用编程软件MATLAB,实现连续刚构桥梁体系可靠度的计算.算例分析表明,该方法迭代次数少,效率较高,可实现连续刚构桥功能函数重构和体系可靠度计算.     

机械零部件失效相依方向可靠性模型

为判定机械结构系统可靠性工程中相关性失效的相依方向,在线性回归背景下,根据线性相关系数的特性,建立了可靠性变量判定模型.应用Copula回归函数,将该模型扩展到对一般非对称型相关结构可靠性的相关性失效方向判定,并应用于判定机车设备转轴的磨损失效和变形失效相关性失效方向,得到其磨损量偏度系数、变形量偏度系数分别为2.362×10-6和9.665×10-33.研究结果表明,磨损失效占有主导地位,与实际转轴的主要失效形式一致,验证了该模型的有效性.      

铁道车辆LZ50车轴钢的概率机械性能

完成了铁道车辆LZ50车轴钢的概率机械性能试验研究，拓宽了确定有限疲劳可靠性数据良好假设分布的统一方法，比较了6种常用分布(即三参数Weibull、两参数Weibull、正态、对数正态、极大值和极小值分布)对试验数据的描述效果，综合分析了他们的拟合优度、失效机理的一致性和尾部预测的安全性。从预测的安全性角度，选择了极小值分布为最佳统计模型，提出了给定可靠度和置信度下基于极小值分布的机械性能参数估计方法，并有效地估计了材料的概率机械性能参数。     

考虑路段失效的军事物流配送中心选址模型

针对战场保障网络常常遭受敌人打击的现象,建立了考虑路段失效的军事配送中心可靠选址模型.模型为双层规划形式,上层规划的目标是优化系统在无路段失效和出现路段失效时所覆盖的总的需求量,下层规划的目标是最小化某一路段失效时系统覆盖的需求量.采用启发式算法求解下层规划,运用遗传算法求解整个模型.通过一个算例验证模型的优越性和算法的有效性.算例结果表明,尽管模型所得选址方案在无路段失效时覆盖的需求量,小于不考虑路段失效的最大覆盖模型选址方案覆盖的需求量,但在最佳路段失效时模型选址方案的覆盖效果优于后者.     

大型基础设施系统设计中的风险及概率

在大型基础设施系统中,不可避免地会出现重大的不确定性,因而,无法确保已建系统的安全性和可靠性.有功能失效甚至破坏的可能,同时也有相应的规避风险的措施.从实用角度出发,不确定性可以分为两大类:数据型(又称偶然型)不确定性和知识型(又称认知型)不确定性.前者可以通过对数据的观察来评估,而后者则需要主观判断.系统地分析了这两...     

Wind turbine gearbox reliability analysis based on the system level stress-strength model

In order to estimate the reliability of wind turbine gearbox based on the system level, a generalized stress-strength model is introduced. Considering that the system works properly under a variety of random stresses which affect every component, the total stress on the system is given by a known linear combination of the stresses of all components. Then the strength of the system can be viewed as a linear combination of the strengths of relative components. In this model, stress and strength are independent of each other. Reliability of the system is the probability that strength exceeds stress. Finally, the reliability of wind turbine gearbox is estimated by the multivariable reliability calculation method. The corresponding result is compared with the results of reliability in the extreme cases(completely dependent and completely independent) by the traditional evaluation method.     

Analysis of through-the-thickness stress distribution in thick laminate multi-bolt joints using global-local method

The stress distribution surrounding the fastener hole in thick laminate mechanical joints is complex. It is time-consuming to analyze the distribution using finite element method. To accurately and efficiently obtain the stress state around the fastener hole in multi-bolt thick laminate joints, a global-local approach is introduced. In the method, the most seriously damaged zone is 3D modeled by taking the displacement field got from the 2D global model as boundary conditions. Through comparison and analysis there are the following findings: the global-local finite element method is a reliable and efficient way to solve the stress distribution problem; the stress distribution around the fastener hole is quite uneven in through-the-thickness direction, and the stresses of the elements close to the shearing plane are much higher than the stresses of the elements far away from the shearing plane; the out-of-plane stresses introduced by the single-lap joint cannot be ignored due to the delamination failure; the stress state is a useful criterion for further more complex studies involving failure analysis.     

Stochastic optimal control for first-passage failure of nonlinear oscillators with multi-degrees-of-freedom

To enhance the reliability of the stochastically excited structure,it is significant to study the problem of stochastic optimal control for minimizing first-passage failure.Combining the stochastic averaging method with dynamical programming principle,we study the optimal control for minimizing first-passage failure of multidegrees-of-freedom（MDoF）nonlinear oscillators under Gaussian white noise excitations.The equations of motion of the controlled system are reduced to time homogenous difusion processes by stochastic averaging.The optimal control law is determined by the dynamical programming equations and the control constraint.The backward Kolmogorov（BK）equation and the Pontryagin equation are established to obtain the conditional reliability function and mean first-passage time（MFPT）of the optimally controlled system,respectively.An example has shown that the proposed control strategy can increase the reliability and MFPT of the original system,and the mathematical treatment is also facilitated.     

Reliability Analysis of Retracting Actuator with Multi-State Based on Goal Oriented Methodology

In order to conduct effective reliability analysis of retracting actuator with multi-state(success state,safety failure state and action failure state), we redefine type-3 operator in goal oriented(GO) method to describe three states of main charge of retracting actuator and improve type-15 operator in GO method to describe the logic relations of multi-state output. The quantitative and qualitative reliability analyses of retracting actuator are made based on GO method in this paper. The system state probability of retracting actuator is obtained through quantitative analysis, and its weakness is found through qualitative analysis. The analysis results show that GO method is effective to improve the reliability of retracting actuator, and this method is also feasible for reliability analysis of other complicated initiating explosive systems.     

基于环剪试验的含钙质结核古土壤剪切特性

含钙质结核古土壤在黄土滑坡的剪切带中广泛分布,影响滑坡的剪切特性.?通过固结排水环剪试验,改变轴应力大小,研究不同钙质结核含量下古土壤的剪切力学特性;基于对剪切破坏面的宏观结构分析,总结并提出剪切破坏面的"一"型和"U"型两种破坏形态及平稳、过渡、波动3种破坏模式.?研究结果表明:在低轴应力下,应力-位移曲线均为软化型...     

共因失效修理工多重休假的两相同部件串联系统的可靠性分析

研究了共因失效修理工多重休假的两相同部件串联系统的可靠性,在假定部件的失效分布服从指数分布,修理工修理时间和休假时间均服从一般连续型分布的条件下,利用补充变量法,得到了该系统的瞬时可用度和稳态可用度、系统的可靠度、系统的瞬时和稳态故障频度等重要可靠性指标。     

Approach for Reliability Evaluation of Cross-Linked Polyethylene Under Combined Thermal and Vibration Stresses

Based on Wiener process model, a new approach for reliability evaluation of cross-linked polyethylene(XLPE) is proposed to improve the lifetime evaluation reliability of XLPE under multi-stressing conditions and study the failure probability distribution. In this paper, two accelerated aging tests are carried out under combined thermal and vibration conditions. The volume resistance degradation data of XLPE samples are tested with a24 h interval under the accelerated stressing conditions at(130℃, 12 m/s~2) and(150℃, 8.5 m/s~2), respectively.Nonlinear degradation data obtained from the experiment are transformed to linear intermediate-variable values using time scaling function, and then linearized degradation data are calculated and evaluated on the basis of linear Wiener process model. Considering traditional Arrhenius equation and inverse power criterion, parameters of the linear Wiener model are estimated according to the maximum likelihood function. The relationship curves on probability density and reliability are given, and the lifetime distribution of XLPE under different stressing conditions is also obtained for evaluating the reliability of XLPE insulation. Finally, the life expectancy of XLPE is 17.9 a under an allowance temperature of 90℃ and an actual vibration acceleration of 0.5 m/s~2. The approach and results in this paper may be used for reliability assessment of high-voltage multiple samples or apparatuses.     

Risk-identification-based hybrid method for estimating the system reliability of existing jacket platforms under fire

This paper proposes a risk-identification-based hybrid method for estimating the system reliability of steel jacket structures under fire.The proposed method starts with risk identification;according to the results of hazard identification and Dow’s fire and explosion index(F&EI) methodology,the most dangerous hazard sources are determined.In term of each equipment layout in steel jacket structures,fire load is imposed and elasto-plastic analysis is performed.According to the deformed state of steel jacket structures,the weakest failure mode of steel jacket structures is identified.In order to know the effect on ultimate bearing capacity of the offshore structural system,a series of elasto-plastic analyses are performed in which single failure element contained in the weakest failure mode is removed from the whole offshore platform structural system.Finally,the failure function of the steel jacket structure is generated and the failure probability of the steel jacket structure system is estimated under fire by genetic algorithm via MATLAB program.