Deregulating the bus industry in Britain: a reply

In the last four years, some 20 urban areas in the UK have commissioned or considered conducting Integrated Transport Studies, which are designed to develop a transport strategy for the next 20–30 years. Such studies represent a new approach to transport policy formulation, since they respond to a vision of the future for the area, treat a wide range of transport and land use policy instruments, emphasize synergy between those instruments, and provide a framework for facilitating action rather than a rigid blueprint for the future. They also differ from past studies in the speed with which they have been conducted, and in the analytical techniques which have made this possible. This paper reviews the background to these studies, the evaluation approach adopted, the policy instruments considered and the analytical methods developed for the studies. It concludes with an assessment of the policy implications stressing in particular the need to reduce trip length, the crucial impact of pricing as an instrument of transport policy, the importance of achieving synergy in strategy development, and the requirement for a common basis for evaluating and financing different transport policy instruments.     

The principles of calibrating traffic microsimulation models

Traffic microsimulation models normally include a large number of parameters that must be calibrated before the model can be used as a tool for prediction. A wave of methodologies for calibrating such models has been recently proposed in the literature, but there have been no attempts to identify general calibration principles based on their collective experience. The current paper attempts to guide traffic analysts through the basic requirements of the calibration of microsimulation models. Among the issues discussed here are underlying assumptions of the calibration process, the scope of the calibration problem, formulation and automation, measuring goodness-of-fit, and the need for repeated model runs.

A framework for urban freight policy analysis

This paper provides an overview of the urban freight process, in the context of the supply and demand aspects of freight. A framework for analysis is developed, and within that framework, particular aspects of the urban freight process are described. Issues of concern from a public policy viewpoint are highlighted.

Seven main instruments related to public policy are introduced and their application described — taxes and subsidies, regulations, investment, operational instruments, planning, public ownership and research.

It is concluded that the importance of urban freight to the community and its relevance to urban transport justifies a higher level of attention in transport planning and policy formulation, and that there are a wide range of policy instruments available to enable this to be done. The objective of such planning and policy making needs to be specified in each specific context.     

Accelerating the transformation to a low carbon passenger transport system: The role of car purchase taxes,feebates, road taxes and scrappage incentives in the UK

The transition to a low carbon transport world requires a host of demand and supply policies to be developed and deployed. Pricing and taxation of vehicle ownership plays a major role, as it affects purchasing behavior, overall ownership and use of vehicles. There is a lack in robust assessments of the life cycle energy and environmental effects of a number of key car pricing and taxation instruments, including graded purchase taxes, vehicle excise duties and vehicle scrappage incentives. This paper aims to fill this gap by exploring which type of vehicle taxation accelerates fuel, technology and purchasing behavioral transitions the fastest with (i) most tailpipe and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions savings, (ii) potential revenue neutrality for the Treasury and (iii) no adverse effects on car ownership and use.The UK Transport Carbon Model was developed further and used to assess long term scenarios of low carbon fiscal policies and their effects on transport demand, vehicle stock evolution, life cycle greenhouse gas emissions in the UK. The modeling results suggest that policy choice, design and timing can play crucial roles in meeting multiple policy goals. Both CO₂ grading and tightening of CO₂ limits over time are crucial in achieving the transition to low carbon mobility. Of the policy scenarios investigated here the more ambitious and complex car purchase tax and feebate policies are most effective in accelerating low carbon technology uptake, reducing life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and, if designed carefully, can avoid overburdening consumers with ever more taxation whilst ensuring revenue neutrality. Highly graduated road taxes (or VED) can also be successful in reducing emissions; but while they can provide handy revenue streams to governments that could be recycled in accompanying low carbon measures they are likely to face opposition by the driving population and car lobby groups. Scrappage schemes are found to save little carbon and may even increase emissions on a life cycle basis.The main policy implication of this work is that in order to reduce both direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions from transport governments should focus on designing incentive schemes with strong up-front price signals that reward ‘low carbon’ and penalize ‘high carbon’. Policy instruments should also be subject to early scrutiny of the longer term impacts on government revenue and pay attention to the need for flanking policies to boost these revenues and maintain the marginal cost of driving.     

Critical success conditions of collaborative methods: a comparative evaluation of transport planning projects

This paper explores critical success conditions of collaborative planning projects in the area of urban transport, evaluating the impact of new collaborative methods, instruments and processes on project performance. Hypothesis building is based on a comparative, empirical research design, rather than on deductive theory construction. Potential critical success conditions are derived from literature. Based on five urban transport planning projects in Gothenburg (Sweden), London (United Kingdom), Milwaukee (United States), Tokyo (Japan) and Mexico City (Mexico), a rough set analysis of the five cases reveals validated success conditions, which can be used for formulating hypotheses for further research or for policy and process improvement. The results suggest that a dedicated management of the multi-actor network, a high diversity of actors, as well as an extensive use of knowledge integration methods in combination with a high network density are critical success conditions of these planning processes. Surprisingly, the extensive use of unilateral methods also showed to be an important success condition. The traditional role of the planner will have to be complemented with the expertise of network and methodology management. The authors conclude that rough set analysis can be a valuable addition to narrative, single-case analysis of collaborative urban transport planning processes.     

The treatment of traffic in the Dutch environmental outlooks: the role of science in policy making and policy evaluation

The Dutch National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection publishes Environmental Outlooks in which 25‐year projections are made. These Outlooks quantifying the environmental problems, form the scientific basis for Dutch environmental policy. Traffic and transport is one of the main sectors causing environmental problems. The emissions and energy use of all relevant categories (road traffic, non‐road traffic) are based on model simulations with models. This paper describes the main models used.

If present policy is implemented only a minority of the environmental targets will be met.

If a sustainable transport system for the Netherlands means a large reducton in CO₂ emissions and energy use after 2010 a stronger emphasis on both technical and non‐technical measures (such as land‐use planning combined with public transport improvements) for the period until 2010 is needed than proposed in the Second Transport Structure Plan, unless a sustainable energy source becomes available.     

Vehicular pollution control in Delhi

Delhi is one of the most polluted cities in the world caused by spectacular vehicular growth in the past 2–3 decade. To restore the air quality and refurbish its image, a number of command and control policy instruments have been implemented in Delhi. The paper attempts to investigate whether the enactment of policy instruments and the efforts have led to commensurate fall in air pollution in Delhi. The analysis shows that the imposition has not resulted in concomitant improvement in ambient air quality. One of the reasons is reliance on new vehicles, with little emphasis on in-service vehicles. Even with new vehicles, the focus is on emission limits not on the limit on ambient air quality. With between 370 and 600 new vehicles being registered every day, any expectation of improvement in air quality is far-fetched. The paper concludes that the containment of vehicular pollution requires an integrated approach, with combined use of transport policies and air pollution control instruments.     

Forecasting petrol demand and assessing the impact of selective strategies to reduce fuel consumption

Abstract

The use of fossil fuels in transportation is an important topic as a result of growing concerns over global warming. Automobile petrol demand has been of particular interest to researchers and policy-makers, given that the automobile is a major contributor to the enhanced greenhouse effect. This paper forecasts Australia's automobile petrol demand up to the year 2020 based on the best performing forecasting model selected out of eight models. In order to establish ways to reduce the demand for petrol, and the consequent by-product of reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emissions, we have estimated the impact on CO₂ for several potential policy instruments, using Transportation and Environment Strategy Impact Simulator (an integrated transport, land use and environmental strategy impact simulation programme). We find that a carbon tax of AU$0.50/kg can reduce automobile kilometres by 5.9%, resulting in reduced demand for petrol and a reduction in CO₂ of 1.5%.     

Policy analysis of third party electronic coupons for public transit fares

Mobile technologies are generating new business models for urban transport systems, as is evident from recent startups cropping up from the private sector. Public transport systems can make more use of mobile technologies than just for measuring system performance, improving boarding times, or for analyzing travel patterns. A new transaction model is proposed for public transport systems where travelers are allowed to pre-book their fares and trade that demand information to private firms. In this public-private partnership model, fare revenue management is outsourced to third party private firms such as big box retail or large planned events (such as sports stadiums and theme parks), who can issue electronic coupons to travelers to subsidize their fares. This e-coupon pricing model is analyzed using marginal cost theory for the transit service and shown to be quite effective for monopolistic coupon rights, particularly for demand responsive transit systems that feature high cost fares, non-commute travel purposes, and a closed access system with existing pre-booking requirements. However, oligopolistic scenarios analyzed using game theory and network economics suggest that public transport agencies need to take extreme care in planning and implementing such a policy. Otherwise, they risk pushing an equivalent tax on private firms or disrupting the urban economy and real estate values while increasing ridership.     

A parking model hierarchy

The last decade has seen considerable developments in computer assisted design procedures which enable planners to investigate the impacts of changes in the transport system. These developments have become more available to analysts through the introduction of microcomputers and computer graphics. Unfortunately, the impacts of parking on the transport have not been incorporated explicitly in many of these models since their prime concern is the movement of traffic. Parking system design and policy analysis can, however, benefit greatly from these developments in computer technology and availability. The design of parking systems can be improved and the investigation of policy impacts can be trialed or refined prior to their introduction using microcomputer packages. This paper outlines some developments in these areas. More specifically, it outlines a hierarchy or microcomputer models and information systems that can investigate parking policy and study the level of service provided by parking systems.     

Transport policy prioritisation for Dublin

Internalisation of the external costs of transport is currently the subject of much debate. Estimation of costs such as those of pollution and congestion is a primary element in any strategy involving policies for use in the internalisation of these costs. The objective of the TRENEN II STRAN project, funded by the EU, was to develop a methodology for estimation of the marginal external costs of transport. The model developed during the project was used in a series of case studies. One of the case studies, that conducted for Dublin, is reported in this paper. A brief summary of the TRENEN approach is presented followed by the results for Dublin produced from policies such as Do Nothing, Uniform pricing (internalising external costs by means of fuel taxation), Congestion Pricing (cordon pricing) and a first-best policy, the Full Optimum where one assumes that the policy maker has perfect pricing instruments available. As one would expect, the model shows that the greatest reduction in traffic level and external costs would occur if it were possible to introduce a highly differentiated and sophisticated pricing system. Increased taxation on fuel is not an efficient policy as it does not address the marginal external costs of congestion in a way that time-differentiated road-use pricing would. The results from testing of the different measures are interesting particularly those relating to parking and the way in which residents within the CBD and commuters to the CBD are dealt with. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Analysis of tourist behaviour based on the tracking data collected using a mobile communication instrument

Recently, tracking-type travel data collection methods using mobile communication instruments have developed rapidly. The detailed and accurate travel data are useful for understanding travel behaviour and evaluating the actual effects of transport policy such as traffic demand management. This paper studies a simple index of a tourist behaviour using tracking data collected with a mobile instrument. Based on the proposed index and actual data collected in Kobe, cluster analysis is applied to find the topological characteristics of tourist behaviour.     

Some thoughts on competitive tendering in local bus operations

Abstract

This article is derived from a report by Metra Consulting Group for the Dutch Ministry of Public Health and the Environment. The aim of Metra's study was to identify ways of reducing the environmental nuisance of urban traffic without adding excessively to transport costs.

The main theme of the article is that the traditional idea of an inherent conflict between transport efficiency and the environment is mistaken. Both efficiency and the environment are threatened by the same thing: the excessive and indiscriminate use of vehicles. This comes about because of defects in the fiscal and regulatory framework within which people take transport decisions. Suitable reforms in this framework would simultaneously enhance the environment and improve access for all classes of road user.

In the development of this theme, particular attention is paid to transport activities which tend to be neglected by policy makers, such as walking, cycling and urban goods distribution; and to measures which are not always thought of as instruments of policy at all, such as locational policy and development control, vehicle design, and vehicle taxation, especially of goods vehicles.     

The role of VMT reduction in meeting climate change policy goals

This article evaluates the case for vehicle miles traveled (VMT) reduction as a core policy goal for reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs), concluding the economic impacts and social consequences would be too severe given the modest potential environmental benefits. Attempts to reduce VMT typically rely on very blunt policy instruments, such as increasing urban densities, and run the risk of reducing mobility, reducing access to jobs, and narrowing the range of housing choice. VMT reduction, in fact, is an inherently blunt policy instrument because it relies almost exclusively on changing human behavior and settlement patterns to increase transit use and reduce automobile travel rather than directly target GHGs. It also uses long-term strategies with highly uncertain effects on GHGs based on current research. Not surprisingly, VMT reduction strategies often rank among the most costly and least efficient options. In contrast, less intrusive policy approaches such as improved fuel efficiency and traffic signal optimization are more likely to directly reduce GHGs than behavioral approaches such as increasing urban densities to promote higher public transit usage. As a general principle, policymakers should begin addressing policy concerns using the least intrusive and costly approaches first. Climate change policy should focus on directly targeting greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., through a carbon tax) rather than using the blunt instrument of VMT reduction to preserve the economic and social benefits of mobility in modern, service-based economies. Targeted responses are also more cost effective, implying that the social welfare costs of climate change policy will be smaller than using broad-brushed approaches that directly attempt to influence living patterns and travel behavior.     

Traffic Noise in Europe: A Comparison of Calculation Methods,Noise Indices and Noise Standards for Road and Railroad Traffic in Europe

The demand for inland freight transport in Europe is mainly met by road transport, leading to unsustainable impacts such as air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and congestion. Since rail transport has lower externalities than road transport, a modal shift from road to rail is an accepted policy goal for achieving a more sustainable and competitive transport system. However, intermodal road–rail transport is mainly competitive for long-distance transport, and as a consequence, the potential for modal shift is limited. The cost efficiency of road–rail intermodal transport is particularly sensitive to pre- and post-haulage (PPH) costs, since this activity typically has a larger cost compared with its share of the total distance in the transport chain. For intermodal transportation over shorter distances, for example, below 300 km and where there are substantial PPH activities at both ends of the chain, the competitiveness of the intermodal transport system compared with that of direct road is low. Improving the efficiency of PPH activities is, therefore, of utmost importance for the competitiveness of the intermodal transport system. This paper looks into the issue of improving the cost efficiency of an intermodal transport chain by implementing an innovative and flexible legal framework regarding the PPH activities in the chain. By extending the legal framework with exemptions for longer vehicles in PPH, the cost efficiency could be greatly improved. The purpose of such a framework is to allow and enable, for PPH exclusively, the use of 2?×?40 foot or even two semi-trailers using only one vehicle in the context of the Swedish regulatory framework. This paper develops a strategic calculation model for assessing and investigating the consequences of such a framework and investigates the framework's potential in terms of cost efficiency. The model in combination with a sensitivity analysis of input variables gives a comprehensive understanding of the effects of PPH under different circumstances. From the results, it is evident that there are substantial positive effects associated with a PPH framework of longer vehicles. Results indicate that a typical shipper may experience cost reductions of about 5–10% of the total costs of the intermodal transport chain. In summary, a more innovative and flexible legal framework regarding vehicle length in the PPH links can contribute to a greater modal shift, improved cost efficiency and more environmentally friendly transportation systems.     

The applicability of non-cooperative game theory in transport analysis

Various models that incorporate concepts from Non-Cooperative Game Theory (NCGT) are described in the transport literature. Game Theory provides powerful tools for analysing transport systems, but these tools have some drawbacks that should be recognised. In the current paper we review games that describe transport problems and discuss them within a uniform context. Although the paper does not introduce new tools, it presents insights concerning the relations between transport models and games. We divide existing games into groups and show that some common features characterise multiple games. We distinguish between games that make a conceptual contribution and games that are suitable for application. Compact or symmetric game structures make remarkable observations but often do not support actual decision-making. Less aesthetic formats, most of which are Stackelberg games between authorities and travellers, are stronger as instruments that assist in determining real-life policies; these formulations can be treated by practitioners as mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints and not as games. Yaron Hollander is currently conducting economic research of bus reliability at the Institute for Transport Studies at the University of Leeds. He previously worked for the Technion—Israel Institute of Technology; for the Israel Institute for Transportation Planning and Research; and for the public transport department at Ayalon Highways Co. Joseph N. Prashker is a professor at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Technion—Israel Institute of Technology. Till recently he served as head of the Transportation Research Institute at the Technion. His interests are behavioural demand models, network analysis, and Game Theory applications in transportation.     

A survey of the Swiss public transport system and policy

This paper surveys Swiss public transport structure and policy. The regulatory regime is explained with the division between the two operators working under federal monopoly — the State railways (SBB) and the postbuses (PTT) — and the rest of the system. The rather complicated Swiss subsidy arrangements are described. The federal government's emphasis on introducing cheap public transport fares on environmental grounds through the federal transport measures (BTM) and the use of cheap fares in urban areas are discussed. The paper notes the Swiss people's rejection by a referendum of a federal commission's proposal for an integrated transport policy, though some of the solutions were introduced in their own right: the division of SBB into two parts, and the creation of the concept Rail 2000, later developed into Rail + Bus 2000. Finally, the paper reviews problems of the Swiss policy, including the future of cheap fares, making some comparisons with developments in Scandinavia.     

Road pricing — an outsider's view of American experiences

Abstract

Substantial changes in urban transport policy have taken place over the past decade. The concern with expanding infrastructure and the preoccupation with providing sufficient road capacity to meet the increasing demand of unrestricted car use, which characterized transport policy in the 1950s and 1960s, has gradually given way to the idea that there is a need to restrain motor traffic if urban society is to function efficiently. A variety of restrictive physical traffic management, land use planning and economic policies have, in consequence, been pursued. One option which has attracted considerable attention in the academic literature, but which has been received more cooly by policy‐makers, is the possibility of optimizing urban traffic congestion through the imposition of road pricing. The introduction and relative success of the area licensing scheme in Singapore has added fuel to the arguments of the advocates of such a policy. This review is not directly concerned with either the experiment with road pricing in Singapore nor the theoretical debates which have taken place concerning the potential merits and defects of such policies but rather looks at the applied work in the United States which has looked into the practical implications of road pricing for its cities. Further, it seeks to explore, again drawing on American experiences, just why there has been so much opposition to the employment of economic pricing principles in the urban road transport market. The author presents the results of an SSRC sponsored study into the practical problems of introducing road pricing to cities in the United States.     

Transport and society1

In 1963, the Buchanan Report in the UK advocated a combination of new road capacity, improved public transport and traffic restraint as a means to tackle congestion. Forty years on, and the advice from many transport experts remains the same. However, the scale and complexity of the problems associated with a mobility‐dependent society have grown. The need for politicians to make tough but realistic policy decisions on transport is now becoming unavoidable. They must confront the realities of living with the car as must the general public. Policymakers now also have social well‐being and sustainable development moving higher on their agendas alongside transport. Against such a backdrop, the paper makes the case for transport research, policy and practice to acknowledge more fully the inherent links between transport and society. It argues that greater recognition and understanding of such links is crucial to confronting the present realities. Transport does not merely serve society: it shapes society, as in turn society shapes transport. The future of each is dependent on the other, and this fact must be recognized. The paper advocates in turn that the transport profession must move from its heartlands in engineering and economics also to embrace more fully such disciplines as sociology and psychology. A factual picture of the many facets of present‐day society is presented and the implications for travel demand are discussed. Through considering phenomena such as social norms and habitual behaviour, it is then argued that the travel choices and behaviour of individuals are not simply a matter of economic optimization. This points to the need for decision‐makers to be furnished with better evidence about the transport problems faced and the potential efficacy of measures that might be taken. Discussion of public attitudes and the role of the media are included in the context of assessing how politicians can be encouraged and supported in their implementation of realistic but unpopular policies. Evidence and experience within the paper are UK based, although many of the issues and arguments apply world wide.     

Well-being and Transport: Taking Stock and Looking Forward

ABSTRACT

It is only recently that researchers have attempted to directly link transport to models of well-being and in turn try to map transport's linkages to well-being outcomes. This paper seeks to add to this new literature by introducing a dynamic model of well-being, which highlights the different domains that make up well-being, and in turn — through providing one of the most holistic and comprehensive discussions of the current well-being literature — provide an evaluation of our current understanding of transport's relationship to well-being. The paper also seeks to highlight the different dimensions and complexities of seeking to monitor and improve well-being through transport policy. It will in turn be argued that the varied and complex sets of outcomes that arise from transport policy interventions, and the multiple ways in which they affect well-being, make a well-being approach (that measures policy outcomes in terms of units of well-being) of particular value for policy-makers. However, due to the complexities in comparing positive well-being outcomes, it is argued that the best use of well-being evidence for the transport sector may be to try to minimise the negative effects on well-being caused by policy outcomes.