Comparison of several traffic forecasting methods based on travel time index data on weekends

Traffic forecasting provides the estimation of future traffic state to help traffic control,travel guide,etc. This paper compared several widely used traffic forecasting methods,and analyzed each one's performance in detail to make conclusions,which could redound to researchers choosing an appropriate traffic forecasting method in their own works. Compared with conventional works,this paper creatively assessed the performance of traffic forecasting methods based on travel time index (TTI) data prediction,wh...     

边坡变形时序分析的进化-自适应神经模糊推理模型

变形监测与预报是保证边坡工程施工安全与工程质量的重要措施,但由于位移时间序列的强非线性,边坡变形预报成为非常困难的问题．自适应模糊神经推理系统（ANFIS）有优越的学习和泛化性能,而遗传算法（GA）是优秀的全局优化工具．采用遗传算法优化ANFIS参数,并编制了相应的计算程序．结合三峡工程永久船闸施工变形监测和新滩滑坡变形监测,建立了边坡变形时序分析的GA-ANFIS智能模型．为了对比该模型的预测精度,采用GA优化支持向量回归（SVR）和BP神经网络的模型参数,编制了GA-SVR及GA-BP程序,对相同的算例进行了变形预测分析．按滚动预测法对三峡永久船闸高边坡和新滩滑坡的计算结果表明,文中提出的GA-ANFIS模型能够获得比GA-SVR和GA-BP模型更高的预测精度,可以应用于边坡工程变形监测预报分析,并为类似工程提供参考．     

Online sequential extreme learning machine based multilayer perception with output self feedback for time series prediction

This study presents a time series prediction model with output self feedback which is implemented based on online sequential extreme learning machine. The output variables derived from multilayer perception can feedback to the network input layer to create a temporal relation between the current node inputs and the lagged node outputs while overcoming the limitation of memory which is a vital part for any time-series prediction application. The model can overcome the static prediction problem with most time series prediction models and can effectively cope with the dynamic properties of time series data. A linear and a nonlinear forecasting algorithms based on online extreme learning machine are proposed to implement the output feedback forecasting model. They are both recursive estimator and have two distinct phases: Predict and Update. The proposed model was tested against different kinds of time series data and the results indicate that the model outperforms the original static model without feedback.     

基于道路流量和服务水平的停车需求预测分析

为使停车需求预测更准确,提出基于道路流量和服务水平停车需求预测模型。分析停车需求预测方法的现状,同时引入道路流量和服务水平这两个重要的影响因素,在多元回归模型的基础上,引入停车泊位增加系数,建立改进的停车预测模型。通过大量的调查数据对该模型进行检验,验证模型的准确性,该方法对解决城市中心区的动态交通拥堵具有一定的指导意义。     

基于浏览器/服务器模式的洪水预报系统

笔者通过比较客户机/服务器模式与Web浏览器/服务器模式的优劣,指出基于Web浏览器/服务器模式的洪水预报系统是今后发展的趋势.以乌江江口水电站洪水预报系统为例,探讨基于Web浏览器/服务器模式的洪水预报系统的结构、特点及通过Delphi的实现方法.     

A vehicle traveling time prediction method based on grey theory and linear regression analysis

Vehicle traveling time prediction is an important part of the research of intelligent transportation system. By now, there have been various kinds of methods for vehicle traveling time prediction. But few consider both aspects of time and space. In this paper, a vehicle traveling time prediction method based on grey theory (GT) and linear regression analysis (LRA) is presented. In aspects of time, we use the history data sequence of bus speed on a certain road to predict the future bus speed on that road by GT. And in aspects of space, we calculate the traffic affecting factors between various roads by LRA. Using these factors we can predict the vehicle's speed at the lower road if the vehicle's speed at the current road is known. Finally we use time factor and space factor as the weighting factors of the two results predicted by GT and LRA respectively to find the fina0l result, thus calculating the vehicle's travehng time. The method also considers such factors as dwell time, thus making the prediction more accurate.     

我国路桥类上市公司二级市场表现分析

随着近几年我国公路交通的快速发展,路桥类公司上市发行日益增多。为了进一步认识这些上市公司,辅导投资决策,本文分析了行业背景和公司的财务及经营,并编制了路桥成份指数。     

时间序列AR模型的正则化及其应用

基于正则化理论,通过添加一个正则化因子,构造了一个正则化时间序列模型.算例分析表明,新的正则化时间序列分析模型可改善时间序列分析模型中信息矩阵的病态程度,避免时间序列分析模型产生的不适定性,在一定程度上起到了稳定所求参数的作用.     

刘家峡桁架梁悬索桥的颤抖振时域分析

以刘家峡大桥为工程背景,建立了钢桁架梁悬索桥的有限元模型,采用改进谐波合成法模拟了脉动风荷载,结合大跨桥梁颤抖振分析的基本理论,计算了对应于桥梁各节点的静风力、抖振力和自激力.在此基础上,利用ANSYS参数化设计语言（APDL）编制了相应的计算程序,将计算所得的各类风荷载施加在全桥有限元模型的节点上,对刘家峡桁架梁悬索桥进行了颤抖振时域分析,以精确求解不同桥面基准风速下,桥梁各关键部位的抖振扭转角、抖振侧向位移、抖振竖向位移,进而研究了风速变化对悬索桥最大颤抖振响应的影响.与全桥模型风洞试验的对比结果表明：对大跨桥的颤抖振分析方法是合理可行的,可为同类大跨桥梁风致振动的研究提供科学的依据和参考.     

Multilingual financial news retrieval and smart recommendation based on big data

In view of the study of finance and economics information, we research on the real-time financial news posted on the authority sites in the world’s major advanced economies. Analyzing the massive financial news of different information sources and language origins, we come up with a basic theory model and its algorithm on financial news, which is capable of intelligent collection, quick access, deduplication, correction and integration with financial news’ backgrounds. Furthermore, we can find out connections between financial news and readers’ interest. So we can achieve a real-time and on-demand financial news feed, as well as provide a theoretical basis and verification of the scientific problems on real-time processing of massive information. Finally, the simulation experiment shows that the multilingual financial news matching technology can give more help to distinguish the similar financial news in different languages than the traditional method.     

新型冠状病毒肺炎患者治愈时间的分析

目的 分析新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称新冠肺炎)从确诊到治愈出院的时间,即治愈时间.方法 基于各省、市卫生健康委员会公布治愈病例的入院日期、确诊日期和出院日期,计算从确诊到出院的时间,并基于集合数据累计确诊人数、治愈人数与死亡人数及其比例关系计算治愈时间.结果 580例新冠肺炎患者的治愈时间曲线属偏态分布,偏度为1.09,治...     

基于Visual Basic在交通分布预测中的运用研究

主要是在分析交通分布预测方法的基础上,采用Visual Basic语言进行交通分布预测模型的系统设计;最后通过实例验证了该程序设计的实用性和快捷性,实践也表明采用该系统进行预测目标年交通分布,工作量较小,且操作简单,可为交通规划工作者提供一些参考价值。     

基于组合预测理论的交通事故预测研究

提出一种适用于道路交通事故预测的组合预测模型。实例计算分析表明组合预测比单一预测技术的预测效果更好,在交通事故的预测问题方面具有一定的应用价值。     

基于最小二乘支持向量机的交通流量预测模型

城市交通流具有复杂性、时变性和随机性,实时准确的交通流量预测是实现智能交通诱导及控制的前提.综合分析交通流量影响因素的基础上,进行多路段的交通流量预测研究,提出了基于最小二乘支持向量机的交通流量预测改进模型,并应用平安大街的流量数据进行实例验证.结果表明,该模型具有学习速度快、跟踪性能好及泛化能力强等优点,在交通流预测中更具有实用性和推广性.     

股票市场制度的经济学分析

市场制度影响市场的经济效能，本文提出了中国股票市场制度经济分析的理论框架，指出了中国股票市场制度设计存在的问题，并从经济学的角度进行了探讨。     

公交财政补贴的基本属性分析与管理

城市公交服务发展中的问题,不仅有财政补贴经费不到位的问题,还有财政补贴管理不到位的问题.解决补贴不到位的问题,需要深化对公交财政补贴属性的认识;改进管理不到位的问题,需要加强对公交财政补贴属性的研究.     

股票期权计划行权价的博弈分析

分析了股票期权计划行权价在确定时，存在着激励效用不足、忽视高级管理人员的真实努力程度及缺乏约束等诸多问题．运用博弈论，拟定了股票期权定价博弈的基本思路．在股票期权定价博弈分析时，探讨了通过一次博弈与重复博弈合理确定股票期权计划中的行权价，并进行了实例分析．     

基于不确定度的最小一乘法在企业施工定额消耗量预测中的应用

基于企业施工定额原始数据的特点和现有施工定额原始数据处理方法的实际情况,采用最小一乘法和最小二乘法理论,并引入不确定度的概念,建立适合贫数据的企业施工定额数据计算模型.对最小一乘法与最小二乘法分别求解可知,最小一乘法的结果更为精确.该结果为定额测时过程中未观测到的某些条件下消耗量的推算提供参考.     

Periodic preventive maintenance policy with infinite time and limit of reliability based on health index

The aging of machine can be slowed and the life of machine can be increased by implementing periodic predictive maintenance. In this article,an improvement factor considering maintenance cost,age of machine and learning effect in the process of maintaining is constructed to describe the effect of periodic preventive maintenance. The model of improvement factor can be fitted through health index. Based on improvement factor with infinite time,cost function including preventive maintenance cost,minimal repair...     

浅谈汽车驾驶培训市场的培育与发展

本文通过对我省驾培市场现状与不利影响因素的分析,提出培育与发展汽车驾培市场的几点意见.