Implications of current household vehicle ownership and use patterns on the feasibility of electric cars

Electric cars provide the convenience and mobility of internal combustion engine vehicles without their dependence on fossil fuels or their associated environmental problems. While range constraints continue to limit their ultimate market acceptance, recent changes in the automotive marketplace have made American consumers more energy conscious. This paper examines a recently conducted U.S. survey of household travel behavior. The objective of the analysis is to determine the implications of observed vehicle ownership and use patterns on the feasibility of limited performance vehicles. Several factors are identified which serve to enhance the potential market penetration of electric cars. Included here are the recent growth in multiple vehicle ownership, and significant functional specialization in household allocation of vehicle use. On the other hand, it is pointed out that the substitutability of electric cars with the majority of currently owned vehicles is not clear by virtue of either their seating capacity, luggage space, or other specialized characteristics. Moreover, it is shown that the majority of secondary household cars are purchased used, which raises questions on the cost competitiveness of electric cars.The analysis of household daily driving range confirms the finding from previous studies that currently available electric vehicle technology can serve over 95 percent of vehicle travel requirements. However, serious flaws are pointed out in the use of cross sectional travel diaries for such analyses, raising questions as to the validity of the results. Overall, it is concluded that the ultimate potential size of the electric vehicle market with current technology is about one third of U.S. household vehicles, representing approximately one fifth of total non-commercial VKT. However, more research is needed to assess whether functionally feasible electric vehicles can actually be competitive under market conditions.     

The impacts of environmental knowledge and attitudes on vehicle ownership and use

Using responses to a knowledge–attitudes–behavior questionnaire administered in the Sacramento, California metropolitan region, the effects of environmental knowledge and environmental attitudes on the numbers and types of vehicles owned per household, annual vehicle miles traveled, and fuel consumption are assessed. The results indicate that households with pro-environmental attitudes own fewer and more fuel-efficient vehicles, drive them less, and consequently consume less fuel than do the households of respondents without pro-environmental attitudes. The households of respondents who know more about the environmental impacts of owning and using vehicles own more fuel-efficient vehicles, but environmental knowledge is not statistically significant in relation to numbers of vehicles owned, miles driven, or fuel consumption.     

The effect of the competition between cars and trucks on the evolution of the motorway transport system

Motorways, which were devised at the beginning of their history as dedicated roads intended to be traveled by cars only, are at present also traveled by considerable flows of trucks. This fact has deeply changed the motorway transport system with respect to its original conception, owing to the interactions between two categories of vehicles whose characteristics are very different. These interactions greatly increase the transport cost perceived by car drivers with respect to truck drivers. This paper studies the consequences of this cost asymmetry on the evolution of the transport system when the geometric characteristics of a motorway remain unchanged in time, while transport demand increases. By using a theoretical model of competition between cars and trucks, it is shown that, if both the geometric characteristics of a motorway and the increase rate of the activities that feed the transport demand remain unchanged over time, the competition between cars and trucks, as well as the fact that in general passengers have better transport alternatives than freight, make the increase rate of truck traffic greater than that of cars, causing a progressive increase in the proportion of trucks in the time periods in which a motorway is traveled by both the vehicle categories. Since truck traffic on motorways, at least in Europe, is very scarce on weekends and in holiday periods, in which motorways are traveled almost only by cars, these results seem to indicate a tendency to the specialization of motorways, which are likely to be used in the future mostly by only one category of vehicles in different periods of time.     

The effect of income on car ownership: evidence of asymmetry

This paper examines the effect of income on car ownership, and specifically the question of hysteresis or asymmetry. Although there is little doubt that rising income leads to higher car ownership, less is understood about the effect of falling income. Traditional demand modelling is based on the implicit assumption that demand responds symmetrically to rising and falling income. The object of this study is to test this assumption statistically. Using a dynamic econometric model relating household car ownership to income, the number of adults and children in the household, car prices and lagged car ownership, income decomposition techniques are employed to separately estimate elasticities with respect to rising and falling income. The equality of these elasticities – no hysteresis – is tested statistically against the inequality – hysteresis – hypothesis. Various functional specifications are tested in order to assure the robustness of the results to assumptions concerning functional form. The estimation is based on cohort data constructed from 1970 to 1995 UK Family Expenditure Surveys, and a pseudo-panel methodology is employed. The results indicate that car ownership responds more strongly to rising than to falling income – there is a ‘stickiness’ in the downward direction. In addition, there is evidence that the income elasticity is not constant, but instead declines with increasing car ownership.     

Small area estimation of vehicle ownership and use

A national model of vehicle ownership and use is developed for the USA. Decisions about the number of cars owned by households and the annual miles traveled are jointly modeled using a discrete–continuous probit model, which has been estimated on the 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data. The model system covers four Census Regions (Northeast, Midwest, South and West) and three area types (urbanized area, urban clusters and rural). Models’ estimates have been applied to data extracted from the American Community Survey (ACS) to forecast household vehicle demand at county level. Results show that the national models are transferable to small areas with different geographical and socio-demographic characteristics.     

Car ownership and public transport use: Revisiting the interaction

At the beginning of the 1980s, it seemed that a consensus was emerging among researchers that public transport service levels, fares or quality had a small but possibly important effect on car ownership, and that this should be taken into account for those purposes where car ownership forecasts are used for developing policy on public transport or roads. Somehow, the findings faded away, and had little effect on policy thinking or on analytical techniques. The results of six surveys carried out in South Yorkshire over the period 1972 to 1991, during which there were extreme changes in public transport policy, tend to support a prima facie case for reopening the question. At the household level, car ownership rates are shown to be more volatile than is often assumed, especially in multiple car households. This volatility provides a context within which the quality of public transport provision appears to influence both the level of car ownership and the relationship between changes in the level of car ownership and changes in public transport use.     

A causal analysis of car ownership and transit use

The causal structure underlying household mobility is examined in this study using a sample obtained from the Dutch National Mobility Panel survey. The results indicate that car ownership is strongly associated with mode use, but that it has no influence on weekly person trip generation by household members. Characteristics of mode use are examined through a causal analysis of changes in car ownership, number of drivers, number of car trips, and number of transit trips. It is shown that observed changes in mode use cannot be adequately explained by assuming that a change in transit use influences car use. The finding suggests that the increase in car use, which is a consequence of increasing car ownership, may not be suppressed by improving public transit.     

The asymmetric income effect on household vehicle ownership in Taiwan: A threshold cointegration approach

This paper uses the asymmetric threshold cointegration test to examine the asymmetric relationship between household income and vehicle ownership in Taiwan, presenting estimated asymmetric error correction models. The empirical data include information on household income, car ownership and motorcycle ownership in different regions from 1974 to 2009. The results show that, first, motorcycle ownership is asymmetrically cointegrated with household income in each region, and car ownership is asymmetrically cointegrated with household income in all regions except Taipei city. Second, both car and motorcycle ownership levels increase faster than they decrease in the asymmetric adjustment of their long-run relationship. Third, sensitivity tests for the period 1987-2009 show that the cointegration relationship of the car ownership equations vanished. Finally, we find evidence on the effects of household income on motorcycle ownership, and the effects of income variables on car and motorcycle ownership are dissimilar. This study exhibits different results across regions. These findings may be related to the development of public transit system in each region.     

Assessing the impact of long-term mobility choice motivation and short-term mobility means connotation on the use intention of electric cars in rural areas

In this study several hypotheses comprising a heuristic framework derived from rational-choice (RC) premises and regarding some potentially influencing variables on future use intention of different vehicle types are tested with a rural area sample. Especially the differentiation between long-term vs. short-term as well as functional/rational vs. extra-functional/emotional motivators is assessed. Results suggest a predominance of functional motivators and rational connotations over extra-functional/emotional ones. The models to check whether short-term or long-term effects dominate did not clearly confirm a predominance of long-term factors as hypothesized. In several regression models a moderating effect of rational short-term connotations on different long-term motivators was found, thus contributing notably to the prediction of future vehicle use-intention. The need for further research and theory-driven modeling is briefly discussed.     

Bicycle ownership use and exposure: Participation and activity patterns in Melbourne,Australia

The users of bicycles are usually assumed to be children. The data collected in transportation studies is, therefore, of great value as it is sufficiently extensive to be used for a broader analysis of this question than would ever be possible in a special bicycle survey. Most bicycle surveys are aimed closely at schools, so that the concentrated traffic known to move to and from schools can be used to pinpoint other origins and destinations of these journeys. This paper reports a systematic analysis of bicycle access, usage and exposure for households of different compositions and people of different ages, based on transport survey home interview data for Melbourne (Australia) in 1978. Time profiles of involvement in cycling and other modes are presented for Melbourne, and comparisons are drawn with similar results from Adelaide. A key feature of this analysis is the decomposition of “trip rates” into participation rates and the corresponding activity rates (i.e. trips) of those who participate at all in the specified mode or activity. This technique is shown to have considerable potential.     

Car ownership,travel and land use: a comparison of the US and Great Britain

This paper conducts an international comparative analysis of relationships between car ownership, daily travel and urban form. Using travel diary data for the US and Great Britain, we estimate models of car ownership and daily travel distance. Both a structural model with daily travel conditional upon car ownership and a reduced form model for daily travel, excluding car ownership, are estimated. Model results are similar, and show that differences in travel are explained by (1) differences in demographics between the two countries; (2) lower household income in Great Britain; (3) country specific differences in costs of car ownership and use, transport supply and other factors we have not been able to control. We find that metropolitan size affects travel only in the largest metropolitan areas of the US. Daily travel distance is inversely related to local population density, but the effect is much stronger for the US than Great Britain. We conclude that higher transport costs in Great Britain promote economizing behavior, which in turns leads to more consumption of local goods and services and more use of alternative transport modes.     

Modeling car ownership and use in a developing country context with informal public transportation

Transportation - Car ownership and use is a main contributor to the deterioration of air quality in cities and to global warming. There is thus a pressing need to understand their determinants in...     

The influences of past and present residential locations on vehicle ownership decisions

This study explores the relationship between historical exposure to the built environment and current vehicle ownership patterns. The influence of past exposure to the built environment on current vehicle ownership decisions may be causal, but there are alternative explanations. Households may primarily select to live in neighborhoods that facilitate their vehicle ownership preferences, or they may retain preferences that they have developed in the past, irrespective of their current situations. This study seeks to control for these alternative explanations by including the built environment attributes of households’ past residences as an influence on vehicle ownership choices. We use a dataset from a credit reporting firm that contains up to nine previous residential ZIP codes for households currently living in the 13-county Atlanta, Georgia, metropolitan area. Results show that past location is significant, but of marginal influence relative to the attributes of the current location. From a practical perspective, our results suggest that models that include current but not past neighborhood attributes (also controlling for standard socioeconomic variables) can forecast vehicle ownership decisions reasonably well. However, models that include both current and past neighborhood attributes can provide a more nuanced understanding of the built environment’s potentially causal influences on vehicle ownership decisions. This better understanding may provide more realistic forecasts of responses to densification or other travel demand management strategies.     

Assessing the effect of urban socioeconomic factors and the financial crisis of 2008 on domestic air cargo traffic in Florida

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the social and economic attributes of metropolitan areas and their corresponding domestic cargo traffic. We considered a period of 14 years (2003–2016) and studied the impact of population demographics, employment, and regional industries on domestic cargo traffic of a sampled set of metropolitan areas in Florida. We considered all-cargo carriers and mixed passenger–cargo carriers. Our results provide empirical insights into factors determining the air cargo traffic in Florida. Both population and age demographics of a region is shown to be influential on cargo traffic. Manufacturing industries are shown to prefer all-cargo carriers to mixed passenger–cargo carriers and their concentration in a metro area results in an increase of cargo traffic. In contrast, service industries generate low demand for air cargo. Our results show that larger airports tend to attract cargo traffic away from smaller airports in their close proximity. We also provide insights into the impact of the financial crisis of 2008 on domestic cargo traffic in the region. We study the recovery trend and the impact of the high fuel jet prices on slowing down this trend.

     

Disentangling the role of cars and transit in employment and labor earnings

We examine the relationship between transportation access on the one hand and individuals’ employment and labor earnings on the other. We improve on existing studies by bringing a large national panel data set to bear on this question, attempting to disentangle the mechanisms by which individuals improve their economic standing and, finally, comparing the economic benefits to the direct costs of car ownership. To do this, we use nine waves from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1999 to 2015. We find that access to a car is a strong predictor of future economic benefit for individuals, and that at very high levels of transit access, carless individuals can also fare equally well. Access to an automobile is strongly associated with employment, job retention, and earning more money over time. Though having a car is associated with economic benefits, owning and operating a car is expensive; yet, our findings suggest that the benefits may outweigh the costs for most people living outside neighborhoods with truly excellent transit service.

     

The impact of private autonomous vehicles on vehicle ownership and unoccupied VMT generation

With 36 ventures testing autonomous vehicles (AVs) in the State of California, commercial deployment of this disruptive technology is almost around the corner (California Department of Transportation, 2016). Different business models of AVs, including Shared AVs (SAVs) and Private AVs (PAVs), will lead to significantly different changes in regional vehicle inventory and Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT). Most prior studies have already explored the impact of SAVs on vehicle ownership and VMT generation. Limited understanding has been gained regarding vehicle ownership reduction and unoccupied VMT generation potentials in the era of PAVs. Motivated by such research gap, this study develops models to examine how much vehicle ownership reduction can be achieved once private conventional vehicles are replaced by AVs and the spatial distribution of unoccupied VMT accompanied with the vehicle reduction. The models are implemented using travel survey and synthesized trip profile from Atlanta Metropolitan Area. The results show that more than 18% of the households can reduce vehicles, while maintaining the current travel patterns. This can be translated into a 9.5% reduction in private vehicles in the study region. Meanwhile, 29.8 unoccupied VMT will be induced per day per reduced vehicles. A majority of the unoccupied VMT will be loaded on interstate highways and expressways and the largest percentage inflation in VMT will occur on minor local roads. The results can provide implications for evolving trends in household vehicles uses and the location of dedicated AV lanes in the PAV dominated future.     

Institutional constraints on transport policymaking: the case of company cars in Israel

Transportation analysis emphasizes the necessity to internalize the transport externalities of car usage through taxation. Yet taxation decisions are often made with non-transport goals in mind. In such cases, transport policies are made ‘by the way.’ This paper examines such a case: Israel’s taxation policy on company cars. It shows that current taxation policies result in increasing numbers of company cars and growing numbers of transport users who are not sensitive to the marginal cost of car use and make excessive use of the car. As a result, a significant portion of Travel Demand Management (TDM) measures cannot affect this group. The Israeli case of company car tax reform demonstrates the problematic effect of a policy that does not take its overall consequences on other policy fields into account and thereby impairs efforts to reduce the negative impacts of the transport system. Also, it demonstrates the importance of institutional aspects of transport policymaking.

The tax treatment of company cars, commuting and optimal congestion taxes

In Europe, the preferential tax treatment of company cars implies that many employees receive a company car as part of their compensation package. In this paper, we consider a model in which wages and the decision whether or not to provide a company car are the result of direct negotiation between employer and employee. Using this framework, we theoretically and numerically study first- and second-best optimal tax policies on labour and transport markets, focusing on the role of the tax treatment of company cars. We obtain the following results. First, higher labour taxes and a more favourable tax treatment of company cars raise the fraction employees that receives a company car; congestion and congestion tolls reduce it. Second, in countries that provide large implicit subsidies to company cars, eliminating the preferential tax treatment of company cars may be an imperfect but quite effective substitute for currently unavailable congestion tolls. The numerical illustration, calibrated using Belgian data, suggests that it yields about half the welfare gain attainable through optimal congestion taxes. Third, the favourable tax treatment of company cars justifies large public transport subsidies; the numerical results are consistent with zero public transport fares. Finally, we find that earlier models that ignored the preferential tax treatment of company cars may have substantially underestimated optimal congestion tolls in Europe. The numerical illustration suggests that about one third of the optimal congestion toll we obtain can be attributed to the current tax treatment of company cars.