两岸“三通”后福建港口对台发展形势的SWOT分析及对策研究

福建省地处东南沿海,与我国台湾隔海相望,港口资源丰富。两岸实现“大三通”以后,福建港口对台发展既面临着机遇,也遭受着挑战。运用SWOT分析方法对福建港口对台发展进行了分析,并在此基础上提出了相应的对策,旨在为福建省加快海峡西岸港口群建设、提升港口竞争力提供参考。     

台湾海峡外海港口项目的建设要点

随着海峡西岸经济区开发的加快进行,福建沿海港湾资源的布局正重新整合、调整,煤炭、原油、集装箱等能源、物流基础设施建设正全面展开。尽管海峡西岸具有海域条件良好的兴化湾、湄州湾、泉州港、厦门港等港湾,但随着海运船舶的大型化,港口工程向外海发展也成为趋势。由于特殊的水域条件,在台湾海峡外海建设港口项目有着特殊的要求。结合最近几年在海峡外海按照工程总承包模式建设的几个大型原油、散货码头工程,提出工程建设的经验和体会。     

基于MNL模型的托运人港口选择分析

运用Multinomial Logit(MNL)模型,以长江三角洲港口为例,从港口和承运人两方面综合考虑,提出由港口和承运人不同组合而形成的各种选择方案,计算了托运人对各种方案的选择概率和各个港口的市场份额,并进一步分析各个因素的影响程度以及港口市场份额对这些因素变化的弹性程度。旨在为托运人合理选择港口和降低运输成本、为港口正确制定经营策略和合理明确自身定位提供一定的参考依据。     

Studying port selection on liner routes: An approach from logistics perspective

The research aims to study the port selection in liner shipping. The central work is to set up a model to deal with port choice decisions. The model solves three matters: ports on a ship’s route; the order of selected ports and loading/unloading ports for each shipment. Its objective is to minimize total cost including ship cost, port tariff, inland transport cost and inventory cost. The model has been applied in real data, with cargo flows between the USA and Northern Europe. Afterwards, two sensitive analyses are considered. The first assesses the impact of a number of port calls on the total cost which relates closely to the viability of two service patterns: multi ports and hub & spoke. The second analyzes the efficiency of large vessels in the scope of a logistics network. The overriding result of this research is to indicate the influence of logistics factors in the decision of port choice. The research emphasizes the necessity to combine different factors when dealing with this topic, or else a result can be one-sided.     

完善基础设施 加大改革力度——构筑现代化国际大港

<正>厦门港是我国东南沿海重要的深水良港。这几年来,随着厦门市“以港立市”战略的实施,港口生产建设不断发展,港口规模日益扩大,厦门港已经由地方小港,发展成为一个以外贸运输和临海工业为主,兼有旅游、客运、国际中转、过境贸易、商贸多功能,配套设施较齐全的国家大型一类港口,迈入国家主枢纽港、基本港行列。厦门港目前拥有生产性码头81个,其中万吨级以上深水泊位16个。1997年全港货物吞吐量达到1753.7万吨,跻身我国沿海十大港口行列,排名第十位;集装箱吞吐量首次突破50万标箱,达54.6万标箱,在世界100个集装箱大港中排名第78位,在我国大陆排名第6位;国有企业实现利润连续四年超亿元,去年达13100万元。厦门港目前与40多个国家和地区的60多个港口有海运往来,开辟     

两岸“三通”后闽台港口合作发展展望

运用SWOT分析方法,指出闽台两地港口共建的优势和劣势,机遇和面临的强大挑战.提出了两地当务之急是要建立港口战略合作沟通机制,深度整合双方港口资源,研究突破双方开展港口合作的制度障碍,加大两地临港工业和港口物流建设的力度,不断加强双方的港口货物集疏运系统建设,增加对腹地货源的吸引力.     

江苏沿海港口吞吐量影响因素及预测分析

目前江苏沿海地区综合开发已上升到国家发展战略层面,沿海港口建设正在迅猛开展。港口吞吐量的预测对于港口的建设有着极其重要的意义。以港口和腹地之间的互动关系为出发点,分析了可能影响江苏沿海港口吞吐量的若干因素,采用主成分分析法提取了过去10年影响港口吞吐量的最关键因素,剖析了江苏港口发展的内在影响机理,并提出了基于影响机理的预测模型。最后使用模型对江苏港口吞吐量进行验证分析,模型为江苏沿海港口新一轮发展提供了有力的数据支撑。     

Modelling port choice in an uncertain environment

Port choice is an important issue to be investigated to ensure the effective integration of container supply chains and the sustainable development of regional economy. The selection of appropriate ports to facilitate shipping activities and international trade is crucial for many stakeholders, including shipping lines, port administrators, cargo shippers and national governments. The task is essentially a process of multiple criterion decision-making (MCDM) under uncertainty, requiring analysts to derive rational decisions from uncertain and incomplete data related to different quantitative and qualitative determinants. This paper aims at proposing a new conceptual port choice method by explaining the role fuzzy logic in evidential reasoning in a complementary way, in which various forms of raw data (either objective or subjective) collected to evaluate port performance can first be converted into and presented as fuzzy grades defined using linguistics terms with degrees of belief (DoBs) and second be combined using evidential reasoning to produce a port choice preference score. The method is applied to analyse the selection of major Northeast Asian (NEA) container ports from a shipping line’s perspective. The outcome, a port choice preference score, is calculated using evidential reasoning to directly synthesize the true estimation of the port with respect to each criterion and therefore, unlike a relative ranking index, keeps the ‘goodness’ of port evaluation, capable of benchmarking a specific port’s performance and monitoring the increase of its competitiveness in a longitude study with respect to an individual criterion or all the criteria as a whole.     

Short sea shipping in North America: understanding the requirements of Atlantic Canadian shippers

This research examines the potential for short sea shipping services on the east coast of North America, and focuses on the factors that freight shippers use to choose a transport mode. While there is significant literature available on modal choice and carrier selection, very little examines the effect of splitting the business on the choice that shippers specifically make between short sea and trucking options. Contrary to existing literature, we find that shippers' perceptions of short sea are favourable in this market. We also identify a new method of collecting data on how companies split business in these decisions.     

Characteristics and consequences of the cruise traffic seasonality on ports: the Spanish Mediterranean case

Cruise traffic is a maritime business and tourist typology that has expanded significantly in the past two decades. The seasonality of the industry affects maritime traffic, generating negative effects for the primary stakeholders involved in the configuration of a cruise itinerary. This article focuses on cruise traffic seasonality from the perspective of cruise ports by analysing a sample of 13 ports on the Spanish Mediterranean coast. The variable used was cruise passenger movements during the period 2000–2015. The main objective of this article is to analyse cruise traffic seasonality in order to identify a pattern, classify through a cluster analysis, and identify the changes in seasonality during the period. Specifically, a threefold analysis has been performed, with the additional goal of providing a series of counter-seasonal suggestions and strategies to apply in the management of cruise ports. First, the seasonality pattern of each port was determined. Second, a cluster analysis was conducted to classify ports into clusters with homogeneous seasonality patterns. Third, an analysis was conducted to identify the changes in seasonality during the period of analysis using the coefficient of variation and the Gini coefficient. This article concludes the existence of two port clusters with different seasonal patterns.     

‘Tool port’ to ‘landlord port’: a game theory approach to analyse gains from governance model transformation

This study investigates potential port users’ surplus and terminal operators’ profits due to transforming port governance from the ‘tool port’ model to the ‘landlord port’ model. Although the landlord port model is one of the most adopted and successful port governance models, many ports still operate under other models. Chittagong Port, the largest port in Bangladesh, currently operates under the tool port model, while the country’s second-largest port, Mongla Port, operates under the service port model. Chittagong Port is currently facing many challenges, including capacity expansion and renovation of port facilities. Therefore, we form four hypothetical situations for port governance model transformation, assuming that Chittagong Port will transform to the landlord port model but that Mongla Port will run under the existing governance model. Estimating a Bertrand game model, we present a cost-benefit analysis for port users and terminal operators (or port authorities) in hypothetical game situations. The results reveal that privatising one of the container terminals under a landlord setting is the most profitable scenario for Chittagong Port Authority, but privatising all terminals of Chittagong Port yields the highest users’ surplus. However, privatising two of the terminals while they cooperate yields the lowest users’ surplus.     

舟山北部水域大型泊位规划对通航效率影响的仿真模拟研究

远期规划的舟山北部水域大型泊位高达50余个。进港航速低、历时长、乘潮和靠泊时间窗口要求特殊,是大型船舶影响港口通航效率的主要因素。在现状及近、远期港口规划条件下,基于Arena仿真建模方法,构建舟山北部水域大型船舶进出港仿真模型,定量统计分析不同阶段大型泊位规划对船舶通航效率的影响。结果表明:近、远期规划实施后大型船舶流量增加33%和65%,远期规划中黄泽作业区的船舶平均等待时间较现状增加约10.5 h,小洋山作业区和鼠浪湖作业区分别增加约0.5 h和2 h,对通航效率整体影响有限。     

Evaluating determinants of attractiveness and their cause-effect relationships for container ports in Taiwan: users’ perspectives

The attractiveness of ports is usually a pre-requisite and necessary condition for ports to achieve competitiveness, as well as the springboard to explore the competitive advantages of ports. To determine whether a port is competitive, it is necessary to explore whether it boasts certain factors that make the port attractive to users. The main purpose of this article is to apply the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique to evaluate key determinants of attractiveness and their cause/effect relationships for container ports in Taiwan. The empirical results showed that: (1) Top six determinates of attractiveness for container ports are ‘ample cargo sources,’ ‘favorable port charges,’ ‘dense ship network and routes,’ ‘low transshipment costs,’ ‘efficient wharf operations,’ and ‘adequate wharfs and back-line land,’ respectively. (2) Among the above six determinants of attractiveness, ‘ample cargo sources’ is the cause determinant. Three determinants of port attractiveness, ‘favorable port charges,’ ‘dense ship network and routes,’ ‘low transshipment costs,’ which are the effect determinants. They are affected by the determinants of attractiveness of ‘ample cargo sources’. In addition, this study discusses the above findings and expects to provide the study results to Taiwan’s port authorities for reference.     

The dynamics of port reform: different contexts,similar strategies

Research into port reform in Taiwan and Australia indicates that reform was undertaken in different contexts while committed and adopting similar strategies. Reform in both countries has been consistent with paradigmatic shifts towards market orientation, and within this context, privatisation was considered the preferred option. In both Taiwan and Australia, however, governments, reluctant to relinquish control over their ports, opted for corporatisation models. This article discusses the dynamics and drivers of reform and examines the outcome of these strategies. Both countries commenced port reform with deregulation of dock labour employment and introduced enterprise-based employment replacing the labour pool system. Privatisation of stevedoring operations was introduced at the same time in Taiwan. In the second reform phase, Taiwan amalgamated the four major commercial ports under a single state-owned port company in March 2012, with the objective of reducing inter-port competition and creating a central port planning mechanism. Australian ports, on the other hand, have undergone restructuring with the implementation of corporatisation, privatisation and commercialisation strategies since 1990s. Reform strategies in both countries display some similarities, e.g. rationalisation strategies in both Taiwan and Tasmanian ports, but also display some distinct dissimilarities with the increasing move to privatisation in Australia, e.g. the sale of South Australian ports and in 2010 the sale of the port of Brisbane.     

Potential port responses to new information systems on ships

Innovations in information technology, satellite navigation and hydrography are making it technically possible for commercial ships, run by very small crews, to be navigated in the world's seas and oceans with positional accuracies measured in tens of metres. If shipping lines do make the necessary investment in technological hardware, training, operational readjustments and data acquisition, and are also allowed to exploit the full potential of GPS, it will not be surprising if they then expect the ports to provide levels of information that allow the ships to exploit their new capabilities right up to the berth. Ports wishing to hold or improve their perceived service quality in the competitive port league will need to consider whether, and how, they can meet the shipping lines' requirements.

The introduction of strict product liability law adds a new dimension to the assessment of commercial risk in the various technological possibilities available to the ports. The possible costs involved in cases where third party data processors, software producers and electronic chart hardware manufacturers all stand between the port's data output and the user's perception and use of it, in a completely ephemeral form on a screen, need to be considered carefully. Simpler forms of data transmission, such as via traffic advice broadcast or by pilots in person may be seen as the more prudent choice in the five to ten year horizon.     

基于DEA模型的我国邮轮母港的综合评价

针对现阶段我国邮轮母港建设过盛的情况,运用DEA模型对我国相对有可能发展成邮轮母港的港口城市进行评价。通过分析影响邮轮母港建设的因素和条件,构建邮轮母港指标体系进行评价,并对得出的结果进行分析,解决邮轮港口功能定位的问题,即发展国际邮轮母港和发展国际邮轮靠泊港孰优的问题。     

A game-theoretic analysis of competition among container port hubs: the case of Busan and Shanghai 1

Countries throughout the world, and especially within Asia, are investing heavily in container port infrastructure in the hopes of capturing a larger share of global shipping activity for their economies. Many existing ports are emphasizing developing the capacity to serve as a hub port, building deepwater berths with large terminals to facilitate transfer of containers from feeder ships to mother ships for intercontinental transport. We develop a game-theoretic best response framework for understanding how competitor ports will respond to development at a focus port, and whether the focus port will be able to capture or defend market share by building additional capacity. We apply this model to investment and competition currently occurring between the ports of Busan and Shanghai.     

Freight forwarders speak: the Perception of Route Competition via Seaports in the European Communities Research Project. Part 1

This paper, in two parts, reports on the Perception of Route Competition via Seaports in the European Communities Research Project wherein a total of 72 interviews were held in 11 European countries. Respondents were also asked to fill in a questionnaire, and it is these questionnaire findings that are reported in this first part of the paper. These is a perhaps surprisingly widespread belief that frequency of shipping service is a main reason for choice of seaport in cargo movement. Time on the route and labour problems at ports are major concerns of freight forwarders whose minds are powerfully imbued with the spirit of free enterprise(absence of governmental or other planning agency intervention). Among other major conclusions are a preference for 'delivered price' consignments and the belief in the importance of port charges in route determination (see table 2 for summary of major conclusions).     

基于位序-规模法则的区域港口群发展演化规律

为合理利用港口资源、减少恶意竞争,提出基于位序-规模法则的港口群发展演化规律研究方法。以吞吐量为衡量港口规模的指标,以变异系数、基尼系数等指数研究区域港口群规模差异,以首位度指数判断区域港口群是否服从位序-规模分布,进而基于位序-规模理论研究区域港口群规模分布,定量分析区域港口群发展演化规律。实例分析以欧盟港口群为研究对象,结果表明:欧盟港口群规模差异较大,不均衡程度会逐年增大;欧盟港口群符合位序-规模法则,随着港口位序由高到低,吞吐量增长率会随之减小。