基于Fuzzy-FMEA的快速压排载系统可靠性分析

针对半潜式起重拆解平台开发,以快速压排载系统为研究对象,建立系统可靠性分析模型.区别于传统故障模式和影响分析(Failure Mode and Effect Analysis,FMEA),通过采用模糊理论与FMEA结合来完成对快速压排载系统的定性与定量分析,解决传统方法中故障模式影响因素不易量化的问题,甄别设备潜在风险...     

FPSO火灾爆炸风险评估方法

为了保障海上油气开发的安全进行,对FPSO设备失效引起火灾爆炸进行风险评估.基于模糊Shannon熵和模糊多属性理想现实分析比较法(FMAIRCA),提出了一种改进的FMEA风险评估方法.通过模糊Shannon熵确定风险因素之间的模糊相对重要度,采用FMAIRCA中的重要度值对失效模式进行风险等级排序.通过对FPSO火灾爆炸进行风险评估,并与TOPSIS方法和传统FMEA方法得到的评估结果进行对比,验证评估方法的有效性和可靠性.研究表明,提出的方法能在模糊数据中获取准则权重,在处理大量失效模式和决策标准的情况下计算成本低,该方法排序稳定性更高能够获得更加可靠的风险评估结果.     

基于FMEA和模糊TOPSIS的波浪能发电装置风险评估方法

波浪能发电装置结构复杂，运行环境恶劣，易受到风浪冲击和海水长期浸泡腐蚀的威胁，对装置进行可靠性分析时面临系统故障模式复杂、故障记录少等问题，海洋工程领域传统的故障模式及影响分析（FMEA）方法难以对装置系统的风险进行准确评价。基于模糊逼近理想排序法（TOPSIS）提出一种改进的FMEA风险评价模型，采用模糊置信结构对评价因素进行表示，引入评价因素的权重概念，建立风险性能指标的加权规范化矩阵，利用TOPSIS逼近理想解的原理进行风险排序，得到风险优先数，并以浮力摆式波浪能装置为例进行分析，结果表明俘获系统对波浪能发电装置整体的可靠性影响最为显著。     

FMEA和FCE方法在动力定位控制系统中的应用

针对传统的FMEA(故障模式与影响分析)过于定性化、主观化以及不能进行量化分析的问题,本文提出了一种量化FMEA风险等级数的评定方法,并通过层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评判法(FCE)的理论分析,构建了动力定位控制系统的综合评判模型,将FMEA的结果进行了量化分析,从而能更好地预防故障的发生。以Arrow号近海支援船DP2动力定位(DP)控制系统为例,选择操作站操作面板为研究对象,对该系统的各个组成部分及其模块进行了故障模式与影响分析并做出评判,列出了可能发生的故障模式,确定了故障等级并提出了建议措施,其分析结果证明FMEA和模糊综合评判法是有效的。通过对动力定位控制系统进行故障模式与影响分析(FMEA),可以对动力定位控制系统和设备进行改进、维护和完善,以提高其可靠性,延长设备的使用寿命,提高动力定位船舶的安全水平。     

故障模式及影响分析在高速船设计中的应用

故障模式及影响分析(Failure Mode and Effect Analysis,FMEA)是系统可靠性定性分析的一种重要方法。介绍了FMEA及其一般过程,根据某高速海巡艇管辖海域发生事故实例,建立了故障树模型,并对该失效模式、失效影响进行了分析,从而找出系统的薄弱环节,提出设计修改和操作管理建议。高速海巡艇FMEA表明,该工作对高速船设计具有指导意义。     

载人潜器纵倾调节系统设计及FMEA分析

本文以某载人潜器的纵倾调节系统为故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)的研究对象。结合故障树分析(FTA)方法列举了潜在故障模式,之后分析其故障原因、故障影响和故障检测方法,给出了发生度、严重度、检测度等级分数,计算出风险顺序数(RPN),输出FMEA分析表,最后针对处于高等级风险的故障给出控制和改进措施,以提高纵倾调节系统的可靠性能。     

基于模糊评价和灰色关联度的动力定位系统FMEA方法

针对传统FMEA方法存在无法综合评定故障后果,缺乏量化评价指标的局限性。本文以传统的FMEA理论为基础,提出一种基于模糊评价与灰色关联度的动力定位FMEA方法。首先应用模糊集理论来建立评价故障模式下的模糊术语集和相对应的模糊数,再根据灰色关联理论计算各个故障模式的关联度,最后利用计算结果确定各个故障模式的风险排序。结果表明,相较于传统FMEA,本文方法综合考虑发生频率、严重度和难检测度的权重,更具有有效性和可行性。     

FPSO单点系泊系统失效数据库的设计与实现

为方便海洋结构物风险评估相关人员对失效数据的提取,设计浮式生产储油装置(FPSO)系泊设备失效数据库,通过故障模式及影响分析方法(FMEA)总结该数据库的基本数据需求,建立失效数据库的概念结构模型,并在现有的国内外数据库资料基础上收集FPSO系泊系统设备的失效模式、失效机制及失效案例等一系列数据。     

基于Bowtie和RCM的大型海工平台拖航作业风险控制

为对平台拖航风险有效地进行识别、分析和控制,提出一种基于领结法(Bowtie)和改进的以可靠性为中心的维修(Reliablity Centered Maintenance, RCM)风险控制方法。在对大型海工平台拖航作业特点进行分析的基础上,运用Bowtie模型对拖航作业系统风险进行辨识,形成初步的风险应对措施,利用失效和影响分析(Failure Mode and Effect Analysis, FMEA)法对系统风险进行量化评价,对风险等级较高的故障模式进行危险与可操作性分析(Hazard and Operability Analysis, HAZOP)分析,并利用逻辑决断的方法,得出相关的风险预控措施及事故缓解措施。经拖航实践应用表明:该方法有助于对拖航作业每一个重要环节的风险进行控制,从而提升拖航作业的安全性。     

多重模糊条件下的水上服务区类型决策

针对水上服务区类型选择的多重模糊性问题,提出基于模糊贝叶斯的决策方法,根据文献确定水上服务区选择的影响因素和决策准则,建立四层决策框架;根据各服务区的供需关系对影响因素进行模糊化,利用改进的IF-THEN规则建立影响因素和输入变量之间、影响因素和决策准则之间的推理关系;利用贝叶斯网络对推理规则库进行转换,通过计算贝叶斯网络的边缘概率获得决策方案值;对各节点的决策状态赋予效用值及权重,获得各水上服务区类型的综合得分。将该方法应用于芜申运河宜兴水上服务区的类型选择,结果表明,该方法能够很好地实现水上服务区的类型选择。     

An advanced risk analysis approach for container port safety evaluation

Risk analysis in seaports plays an increasingly important role in ensuring port operation reliability, maritime transportation safety and supply chain distribution resilience. However, the task is not straightforward given the challenges, including that port safety is affected by multiple factors related to design, installation, operation and maintenance and that traditional risk assessment methods such as quantitative risk analysis cannot sufficiently address uncertainty in failure data. This paper develops an advanced Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) approach through incorporating Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Networks (FRBN) to evaluate the criticality of the hazardous events (HEs) in a container terminal. The rational use of the Degrees of Belief (DoB) in a fuzzy rule base (FRB) facilitates the implementation of the new method in Container Terminal Risk Evaluation (CTRE) in practice. Compared to conventional FMEA methods, the new approach integrates FRB and BN in a complementary manner, in which the former provides a realistic and flexible way to describe input failure information while the latter allows easy updating of risk estimation results and facilitates real-time safety evaluation and dynamic risk-based decision support in container terminals. The proposed approach can also be tailored for wider application in other engineering and management systems, especially when instant risk ranking is required by the stakeholders to measure, predict and improve their system safety and reliability performance.     

FPSO关键系统风险分析(英文)

Risk analysis of key systems have become a growing topic late of because of the development of offshore structures. Equipment failures of offloading system and fire accidents were analyzed based on the floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) features. Fault tree analysis (FTA), and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) methods were examined based on information already researched on modules of relex reliability studio (RRS). Equipment failures were also analyzed qualitatively by establishing a fault tree and Boolean structure function based on the shortage of failure cases, statistical data, and risk control measures examined. Failure modes of fire accident were classified according to the different areas of fire occurrences during the FMEA process, using risk priority number (RPN) methods to evaluate their severity rank. The qualitative analysis of FTA gave the basic insight of forming the failure modes of FPSO offloading, and the fire FMEA gave the priorities and suggested processes. The research has practical importance for the security analysis problems of FPSO.     

故障模式及影响分析方法在船舶主推进系统中的应用

采用故障模式及影响分析方法对船舶系统进行可靠性或安全性分析,并以燃油系统为研究对象,找到系统可能的故障模式、发生故障的原因、故障对局部及最终的影响等,以提高船舶系统的可靠性。     

FMEA在船舶系统风险评估中的应用

在船舶系统风险评估中,FMEA(故障模式与影响分析)技术是一种较为有效和常用的风险分析方法,已被国内外的船舶规范所采用。从风险评估的角度,着重介绍FMEA技术、其扩展FMECA(故障模式、影响及危害度分析)技术,及其在船舶系统中的应用。     

FMEA在船舶主机润滑系统中的应用

应用故障模式及影响分析方法(FMEA)对船舶主机润滑系统出现故障的原因和模式进行研究和分析,计算出故障的风险度并进行分级,根据结果提出提高其可靠性的措施。本文研究为轮机人员有效地对船舶主机润滑系统进行维护和管理提供帮助。     

FMEA在船舶分油机中的应用

以船舶分油机为研究对象,应用故障模式及影响分析方法(FMEA)确定出分油机的各种可能故障模式、故障原因和故障影响.同时计算出各故障的风险度,并依此对故障进行了分级,找出对分油机危害严重的故障.最后根据分析结果提出提高其可靠性的参考措施.本文研究能对其他的船舶设备应用FMEA进行可靠性分析提供有效的参考.     

A fuzzy failure mode and effects approach to analyse concentrated inspection campaigns on board ships

ABSTRACT

Maritime actions against substandard operations of ships are a great deal of memorandum of understanding (MoUs) under regional basis agreements among port state control (PSC) organisations. Herein, concentrated inspection campaigns (CIC), performed by the different members of MoUs in certain periods, are a monitoring strategy to effectively control the core operational matters encountered in fire-safety systems, propulsion and auxiliary machinery system, lifesaving appliances, working conditions on board ships, etc. This paper proposes a quantified maritime safety analysis based on fuzzy failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to evaluate CIC database of MoUs in order to achieve advance creative solutions. Demonstration studies are performed on the special database on fire-safety system deficiencies. Since the fuzzy FMEA outcomes point out the risk prioritisation numbers and relevant control options, the paper attempts to transform CIC feedback into useful information in terms of enhancing the ship PSC inspection concept (e-PSC inspection). The paper theoretically contributes to safety analysis methods in literature while demonstration of e-PSC inspections offers an insight into maritime industry in safety improvement.     

A quantitative risk analysis by using interval type-2 fuzzy FMEA approach: the case of oil spill

ABSTRACT

Risk assessment in maritime domain is one of the most cited topics since maritime transportation poses potential hazard for human life, marine environment and property. To mitigate risk and enhance safety awareness in maritime transportation, safety researchers have been seeking proactive solutions. This article prompts a quantitative risk-based approach combining interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FSs) with failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to perform a comprehensive risk analysis. Thus, potential failure modes and their effects are revealed by calculating risk prioritisation numbers (RPNs). Whilst the FMEA method provides a robust risk analysing tool with relevant control options, the IT2FSs deals with ambiguity and vagueness of linguistic assessment of decision-makers through the FMEA. Hence, expert’s linguistic assessment in risk assessment can be transformed into useful information in terms of enhancing safety and pollution prevention in maritime industry. To demonstrate the proposed approach, potential failures and effects of a real shipboard oil spill case are handled. The findings show that incomplete information exchanged with local maritime authorities, malfunction of oil skimmer and poor organization of shoreline clean-up team are the most important failures during case of oil spill. The proposed approach provides not only theoretical insight into the maritime transportation industry but also practical contributions to chemical/oil tanker safety and environmental protection by mitigating risk in terms of technical or operational aspects.     

基于供应链思想的第四代港口概念特征及发展策略研究

与第一、二、三代港口不同,第四代港口从强调自己是一个“物流中心”,转变为强调是供应链中的一个环节,为此,有必要研究基于供应链管理思想的第四代港口的若干问题。在给出具有供应链管理特征的第四代港口的定义的基础上,提出了港口与供应链关系的演进模型,指出港口与供应链关系发展经历了分离（即相互独立）、整合（即形成港口物流服务链,为制造业供应链提供高效的增值服务）和嵌入（即港口被嵌入到制造业供应链中）三个阶段。应对供应链管理的要求,第四代港口应具有与前三代港口不同的差异化、精益化和敏捷化特征。基于上述分析,第四代港口的发展策略应为,主动整合并构建自身的供应链和与供应链核心企业联合等。