京杭运河穿黄及黄河北航道走向探析

近年来,京杭运河黄河以北段复航呼声越来越高,京杭运河穿黄及黄河北山东段走向成为目前需要迫切解决的问题。本文通过对东平湖周边防洪工程现状分析,提出了穿黄位置、穿黄方案及穿黄线路走向;根据黄河北河系水网布置,提出了京杭运河黄河北山东段航道初步走向,为京杭运河黄河以北段复航工程提供技术参考。     

The maximum shipping capacity of the Suez Canal

This paper considers the determination of the maximum shipping capacity of the Suez canal. Initially, some assumptions are made in order to calculate the ‘theoretical’ maximum capacity in terms of ‘standard ships’. This last term defines ships which transit the Canal at a given speed and at a given time interval from the vessel ahead and astern.

Data has been collected from the Canal Zone, the analysis of which provides the necessary information regarding speeds of vessels at different sections of the Canal, time gaps between different classes of ship at different nodes of the Canal, and relationships between time widths of convoys and numbers of ships in those convoys at different points of the Canal.

This data has then been used to calculate the maximum capacity of the Canal in terms of ‘real ships’. For that purpose four schemes have been devised, each taking a different mix of categories of ships. A sensitivity analysis has been undertaken in order to investigate the effect of each class of ship on the real maximum shipping capacity of the Canal. The last two schemes take into consideration the effect of the future introduction of supertankers.     

Impacts of Kra Canal and its toll structures on tanker traffic

This article discusses the proposed Kra Canal and its impacts on the tanker market from an economic perspective. We forecast tanker size distributions and further analyze the impacts of toll structures on tanker traffic. The forecast for tanker size distributions is based on distance savings for tankers as potential users of the Kra Canal. The database covers 105 busiest oil transport routes through the Strait of Malacca for the three-year period 2013–2015. Forecasts for individual routes are achieved using an autoregressive model. Two toll polices, namely the willingness-to-pay policy and the differential-pricing policy, are analyzed in order to maximize the annual toll income of the Kra Canal. The findings for the proposed Kra Canal will attract large vessels from the Strait of Malacca. An interesting finding is that the Kra Canal becomes more profitable during an unfavorable tanker market situation when the time-charter rate is low and fuel price is high. The article concludes with a policy that satisfies the goals of canal operator and government.     

Demand Information from Incomplete Data—Application to Commercial Catfish

This paper provides general background information relating to the physical characteristics and operations of the Suez Canal. In connection with the future development of the Canal, the research programme currently being undertaken by a British consortium is outlined, with particular reference to the traffic system presently operating.     

The expansion of the Panama Canal and its impact on global CO2 emissions from ships

As part of the discussions of the environmental effects of the expansion of the Canal through the construction of a third set of locks, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) began to consider measuring the impact of the project on global CO₂ emissions in 2006. The hypothesis PCA intends to investigate whether the third set of locks will prompt reductions in total world CO₂ emissions or not. The Canal's third set of locks will prevent reaching the saturation point, and will avoid diversion of traffic to potentially longer alternative routes, such as the Suez Canal and Cape Horn, thereby reducing distances and fuel consumption. In addition, the widening of the Canal may promote the construction of modern-type post-Panamax vessels, making transportation of freight more efficient through economies of scale. This white paper will initiate an exploratory research on the subject based on two possible scenarios: an existing Canal and an expanded Canal. Both scenarios will take physical distances, closest alternative routes, as well as fuel consumption of vessels and other relevant modes of transportation into consideration.     

京杭运河山东段航运发展战略探索

在分析京杭运河山东段航运发展现状的基础上,提出京杭运河山东段航运发展战略总体目标是建设京杭运河水上运输高速大通道,打造现代化航运体系,并阐述了实施四大战略的发展战略重点及建立六大工作机制的发展战略措施。     

京杭运河集装箱船队构想

该文根据对京杭运河适箱货物运输量的预测,考虑到京杭运河吃水浅,航道复杂,沿岸头装卸设备不配套的情况,提出了自带装卸设备的集装箱运输船队的构想。     

京杭运河江苏段船型标准化研究

运用SWOT分析方法对京杭运河江苏段船型标准化工程进行了分析研究,并提出了相应的对策,为京杭运河标准化工程下一阶段发展起到抛砖引玉的作用。     

船舶通过苏伊士运河的航行体会

本文简要介绍了苏伊士运河的概况，并分析了过运河的准备和手续，又进一步阐明了北上和南下船舶通过运河的基本方法，最后总结了过运河的体会和经验，供读者参考。     

Forecasting the Suez Canal traffic: a neural network analysis

Although the Suez Canal is the most important man-made waterway in the world, rivaled perhaps only by the Panama Canal, little research has been done into forecasting its traffic flows. This paper uses both univariate ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and Neural network models to forecast the maritime traffic flows in the Suez Canal which are expressed in tons. One of the important strengths of the ARIMA modelling approach is the ability to go beyond the basic univariate model by considering interventions, calendar variations, outliers, or other real aspects of typically observed time series. On the other hand, neural nets have received a great deal of attention over the past few years. They are being used in the areas of prediction and classification, areas where regression models and other related statistical techniques have traditionally been used. The models obtained in this paper provide useful insight into the behaviour of maritime traffic flows since the reopening of the Canal in 1975—following an 8-year closure during the Arab–Israeli wars (1967–1973)—till 1998. The paper also compares the performance of ARIMA models with that of neural networks on an example of a large monthly dataset.     

Forecasting the Suez Canal traffic: a neural network analysis

Although the Suez Canal is the most important man-made waterway in the world, rivaled perhaps only by the Panama Canal, little research has been done into forecasting its traffic flows. This paper uses both univariate ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and Neural network models to forecast the maritime traffic flows in the Suez Canal which are expressed in tons. One of the important strengths of the ARIMA modelling approach is the ability to go beyond the basic univariate model by considering interventions, calendar variations, outliers, or other real aspects of typically observed time series. On the other hand, neural nets have received a great deal of attention over the past few years. They are being used in the areas of prediction and classification, areas where regression models and other related statistical techniques have traditionally been used. The models obtained in this paper provide useful insight into the behaviour of maritime traffic flows since the reopening of the Canal in 1975—following an 8-year closure during the Arab-Israeli wars (1967-1973)—till 1998. The paper also compares the performance of ARIMA models with that of neural networks on an example of a large monthly dataset.     

巴拿马运河吃水、吃水差控制实用计算

鉴于当今巴拿马型散货船对吃水以及吃水差控制不当而造成超吃水,导致这种船穿越巴拿马运河的事故频繁发生。本文主要分析了上述事件常见的典型错误计算,并结合生产实践介绍了几种实用而简单的船舶穿越巴拿马运河控制吃水和吃水差的计算方法,以期给船舶驾驶人员以正确的计算指导。     

京杭运河的船闸设计研究

简要介绍京杭运河的建设情况,分析京杭运河船闸的总平面布置设计要点及船闸输水系统和主体机构的设计要点。     

Panama Canal expansion: alleviating global climate change

This paper quantifies likely changes in greenhouse gas emissions which contribute to anthropogenic climate change, resulting from the expansion of the Panama Canal and the consequent increase in ship-borne commercial transportation from east Asia to the US east coast. Ocean transportation offers higher fuel economy and lower pollutant emissions compared with land transport. Additionally, truck and train transportation of cargo along the US land bridge threatens to overwhelm existing highway and rail systems and limit economic growth. The alternate transportation route for easterly transit of the Panama Canal will reduce overland traffic congestion and enhance economic development by maintaining freight flow efficiency.     

京杭运河穿黄工程探析

介绍京杭大运河历史、现状和发展成就。在南水北调东线第一期长江水已过黄河的基础上,参照国际上运河穿越天然河流的先进工程经验,结合黄河的水文、地形、地质条件,提出几种可能的运河与黄河平交和隧洞、渡槽、宽轨+船箱等立交航运方案,并给出分析意见。京杭运河穿黄航运工程方案的提出与实施,不仅在技术上向世界昭示我国内河水运工程的建设水平,而且在创造条件实现京杭大运河全线通航的同时,为京津冀地区一体化发展做出应有的贡献。     

东济运河通航功能的恢复与开发研究

东济运河是京杭运河在山东省境内的一段 ,现已完全失去通航功能。随着《南水北调》东线工程的实施 ,为该运河恢复航运功能提供了机遇。就调水资源的综合开发利用、发展航运的必要性与通航工程的建设规模及建设方案等重大问题进行具体论述     

Vulnerability analysis of global container shipping liner network based on main channel disruption

The Malacca Strait, the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal play an important role in the global container shipping. To study the impact of main channel interruption on the container shipping, we analysed statistical data on all routes operated by the top 100 global container liner companies and constructed a network model. We selected four topological metrics to measure the network’s connectivity and used the network weekly total shipping capacity and average shortest shipping time to measure the network’s transportation capacity and transportation time. The interruption of the main channel is simulated, and the changes in the metrics are analysed. The results indicated that the network’s vulnerability is sensitive to main channel interruption. If the Malacca Strait is interrupted, the network’s prosperity degree fall by almost half and the network’s transportation time increase by more than a quarter if the Suez Canal is interrupted. In addition, East Asian and European container liner shipping have more than 50% dependence on the Malacca Strait and the Suez Canal. Moreover, the container transport time between ports in East Asia, Europe, and North America and the rest of the world increases by an average of 4–9 days in the main channel interruption.     

隋朝大运河的重要工程——通济渠和永济渠

隋朝大运河以洛阳为中心,北起涿郡,南到余杭,全长五千多华里,是世界上最雄伟的工程之一。它的完成,体现了我国古代劳动人民的聪明才智和创造力。通济渠和永济渠,作为隋朝大运河的重要组成部分,对隋唐乃至以后历朝,都发挥了重要的作用。     

高良涧双线并列船闸下游引航道水流特性研究

高良涧扩容船闸和二线船闸并列布置,且共用引航道,下游较短范围内引航道与苏北灌溉总渠交汇,其下游引航道水流条件受双线船闸相互泄水及苏北灌溉总渠泄流的影响变得十分复杂。采用二维水流数学模型计算和分析的手段,进行高良涧船闸各种典型水位组合及运行方式下的下游引航道水流条件的研究,针对存在的水力学问题,结合高良涧船闸的特点,提出便捷有效的工程措施--格栅式分隔堤,研究成果可供工程设计和运行管理参考。     

京杭运河江苏段航运水污染防治对策研究

苏北运河治污工程是南水北调东线治污工程中的重要组成部分,是一项功在当代、利在千秋的国家重大工程。文中从苏北运河航运水污染防治工作现状及存在的主要问题、今后一个时期拟采取的措施对策、下一步政策建议三方面．进行了详细的阐述,重点提出了苏北运河航运水污染防治工作的措施与对策。