Economic effects of air transport market liberalization in Africa

Although the aviation industry is increasingly becoming important for Africa’s economic development and integration, the ability of airlines to access foreign markets remains hindered by restrictive regulatory policies. Attempts have been made to fully liberalize the intra-African air transport market. Except for general assertions about the merits/demerits of liberalization, our empirical understanding of the welfare effects of such polices in Africa remains rudimentary. This study empirically measures the economic effects of air transport liberalization, mainly on two supply side variables: fare and service quality, measured as departure frequency. The empirical models evaluate how air fares and departure frequency respond to measures of openness in air services agreements, while controlling for other determinants. The results show up to 40% increase in departure frequency in routes that experienced some type of liberalization compared to those governed by restrictive bilateral air service agreements. Furthermore, there is a relatively larger increase in departure frequency in routes which experienced partial liberalization compared to fully liberalized ones. This can be explained by the diminishing marginal effect of progressive liberalization on departure frequency. While the effect of liberalization is substantial in improving service quality, there is no evidence of its fare reducing effect.     

Investigating effects of asphalt pavement conditions on traffic accidents in Tennessee based on the pavement management system (PMS)

Pavement maintenance is essential for ensuring good riding quality and avoiding traffic congestion, air pollution, and accidents. Improving road safety is one of the most important objectives for pavement management systems. This study utilized the Tennessee Pavement Management System (PMS) and Accident History Database (AHD) to investigate the relationship between accident frequency and pavement distress variables. Focusing on four urban interstates with asphalt pavements, divided median types, and 55 mph speed limits, 21 Negative Binomial Regression models were developed for predicting various types of traffic accident frequencies based on different pavement condition variables, including rut depth (RD), International Roughness Index (IRI), and Present Serviceability Index (PSI). The modeling results indicated that the RD models did not perform well, except for predicting accidents at night and accidents under rain weather conditions; whereas, IRI and PSI were always significant prediction variables in all types of accident models. Comparing the models goodness‐of‐fit results, it was found that the PSI models had a better performance in crash frequency prediction than the RD models and IRI models. This study suggests that the PSI accident prediction models should be considered as a comprehensive approach to integrate the highway safety factors into the pavement management system. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of information bias and riding frequency on noise annoyance to a new railway extension in Hong Kong

We investigate how two non-acoustic factors, information bias and riding frequency, can affect the annoyance response of an urban population to noise created by a new railway line. The study shows that information bias is asymmetrical. Respondents receiving only information on positive measures taken by the authority to reduce noise emission are more tolerant of the noise impact, but those receiving only critical views tend to be more annoyed because they feel that not all measures to reduce noise have been employed. Additionally people who use the line frequently are more tolerant to the noise impact than those who do not. Information bias seems to have a temporary masking effect over riding frequency lasting for a few weeks after railway opening. This suggest that whilst free flow of information provided by the authority can help alleviate annoyance response, encouraging the people affected to make use of the new infrastructure may be useful to reduce public resistance and noise annoyance.     

Assessment of the effects of highway geometric design features on the frequency of truck involved crashes using bivariate regression

Given the enormous losses to society resulting from large truck involved crashes, a comprehensive understanding of the effects of highway geometric design features on the frequency of truck involved crashes is needed. To better predict the occurrence probabilities of large truck involved crashes and gain direction for policies and countermeasures aimed at reducing the crash frequencies, it is essential to examine truck involved crashes categorized by collision vehicle types, since passenger cars and large trucks differ in dimensions, size, weight, and operating characteristics. A data set that includes a total of 1310 highway segments with 1787 truck involved crashes for a 4-year period, from 2004 to 2007 in Tennessee is employed to examine the effects that geometric design features and other relevant attributes have on the crash frequency. Since truck involved crash counts have many zeros (often 60–90% of all values) with small sample means and two established categories, car-truck and truck-only crashes, are not independent in nature, the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models are developed under the bivariate regression framework to simultaneously address the above mentioned issues. In addition, the bivariate negative binomial (BNB) and two individual univariate ZINB models are estimated for model validation. Goodness of fit of the investigated models is evaluated using AIC, SBC statistics, the number of identified significant variables, and graphs of observed versus expected crash frequencies. The bivariate ZINB (BZINB) models have been found to have desirable distributional property to describe the relationship between the large truck involved crashes and geometric design features in terms of better goodness of fit, more precise parameter estimates, more identified significant factors, and improved predictive accuracy. The results of BZINB models indicate that the following factors are significantly related to the likelihood of truck involved crash occurrences: large truck annual average daily traffic (AADT), segment length, degree of horizontal curvature, terrain type, land use, median type, lane width, right side shoulder width, lighting condition, rutting depth (RD), and posted speed limits. Apart from that, passenger car AADT, lane number, and indicator for different speed limits are found to have statistical significant effects on the occurrences of car-truck crashes and international roughness index (IRI) is significant for the predictions of truck-only crashes.     

Determinants of airports’ environmental effects

Aviation is a fast growing sector with increasing environmental concerns linked to aircraft emissions at airports and noise nuisance. This paper investigates the factors affecting the annual environmental effects produced by a national aviation system. The environmental effects are computed using certification data for each aircraft-engine combination. Moreover, we also take into account for the amount of environmental effects that is internalized at the airport, mainly through noise regulation. We study a dataset covering information on Italian airports during the period 1999–2008. We show that a 1% increase in airport’s yearly movements yields a 1.05% increase in environmental effects, a 1% in aircraft size (measured in MTOW) gives rise to a 1.8% increase and a 1% increase in aircraft age generates a 0.69% increase in environmental effects. Similar results but with smaller magnitudes are observed if airport internalization is considered. Our policy implications are that the tariff internalizing the total amount of externality is about euro 180 per flight, while the tariff limiting only pollution is about euro 60 and the one reducing noise is about euro 110. Moreover, our airport examples show that managers should prefer to address additional capacity by increasing frequency rather than aircraft size, since the former strategy is more environmental friendly.     

Why railway passengers are more polluting in the peak than in the off-peak; environmental effects of capacity management by railway companies under conditions of fluctuating demand

Given the difference between peak and off-peak occupancy rates in public transport, the average emission per traveller kilometre is lower in the peak than during the off-peak period. However, in this paper it is argued that it is much more fruitful to analyse environmental effects in marginal than in average terms. The issue appears to depend on capacity management policies of public transport suppliers that are facing increases in demand both during the peak and off-peak period. A detailed analysis of capacity management of the Netherlands Railways reveals that the off-peak capacity supply is mainly dictated by the demand levels during the peak period. Topics that receive attention in the analysis are the effects of frequency increases and size of vehicle increases on environmental effects. Also environmental economies of vehicle size are taken into account in the analysis. The main conclusion is that the marginal environmental burden during the peak is much higher than is usually thought, whereas it is almost zero at the off-peak period. Thus, one arrives at a pattern that is entirely reversed compared with the average environmental burden: peak passengers are more polluting than off-peak passengers. The conclusion is that policies based on average environmental performances would lead to misleading conclusions.     

A hazard-based approach to modelling the effects of online shopping on intershopping duration

Despite growing prevalence of online shopping, its impacts on mobility are poorly understood. This partially results from the lack of sufficiently detailed data. In this paper we address this gap using consumer panel data, a new dataset for this context. We analyse one year long longitudinal grocery shopping purchase data from London shoppers to investigate the effects of online shopping on overall shopping activity patterns and personal trips. We characterise the temporal structure of shopping demand by means of the duration between shopping episodes using hazard-based duration models. These models have been used to study inter-shopping spells for traditional shopping in the literature, however effects of online shopping were not considered. Here, we differentiate between shopping events and shopping trips. The former refers to all types of shopping activity including both online and in-store, while the latter is restricted to physical shopping trips. Separate models were estimated for each and results suggest potential substitution effects between online and in-store in the context of grocery shopping. We find that having shopped online since the last shopping trip significantly reduces the likelihood of a physical shopping trip. We do not observe the same effect for inter-event durations. Hence, shopping online does not have a significant effect on overall shopping activity frequency, yet affects shopping trip rates. This is a key finding and suggests potential substitution between online shopping and physical trips to the store. Additional insights on which factors, including basket size and demographics, affect inter-shopping durations are also drawn.     

Impacts of improvements in rural roads on household income through the enhancement of market accessibility in rural areas of Cambodia

Rural areas in low-income countries often face severe poverty typically caused by insufficient accessibility to basic facilities. Improvements in rural roads are expected to reduce poverty although the mechanism has not been investigated sufficiently. This study empirically analyzes the impacts of rural road improvements implemented from 2012 to 2014 in Cambodia, highlighting local residents’ accessibility to local markets. This study assumes two causal relationships: rural road improvements have upgraded the accessibility and travel frequency to local markets, and the upgraded accessibility and travel frequency to local markets have led to a growth in local residents’ income. The hypotheses are statistically tested with a dataset developed through a questionnaire survey conducted in three areas in 2016. The dataset contains responses from 400 local residents to questions concerning their social attributes, livelihoods, travel modes, travel frequency, and time/cost of travels to the basic facilities. The quasi-experimental design incorporating a difference-in-differences design and an inverse possibility of treatment weighting approach revealed that the improvements in rural roads did not affect travel time nor travel cost but significantly enhanced travel frequency to local markets, and that an increase in the travel frequency to local markets and travel time savings significantly contributed to the households’ income growth. The results suggest that the improvement of seasonal reliability in accessing local markets through an introduction of all-weather roads could be critical to enhance household income, particularly in areas where agriculture is a leading industry and weather conditions are unstable across seasons.

     

An examination of the determinants of day-to-day variability in individuals' urban travel behavior

Day-to-day variability in individuals' travel behavior (intrapersonal variability) has been recognized in conceptual discussions, yet the analysis and modeling of urban travel are typically based on a single day record of each individual's travel. This paper develops and examines hypotheses regarding the determinants of intrapersonal variability in urban travel behavior.Two general hypotheses are formulated to describe the effects of motivations for travel and related behavior and of travel and related constraints on intrapersonal variability in weekday urban travel behavior. Specific hypotheses concerning the effect of various sociodemographic characteristics on intrapersonal variability are derived from these general hypotheses. These specific hypotheses are tested empirically in the context of daily trip frequency using a five-day record of travel in Reading, England.The empirical result support the two general hypotheses. First, individuals who have fewer economic and role-related constraints have higher levels of intrapersonal variability in their daily trip frequency. Second, individuals who fulfil personal and household needs that do not require daily participation in out-of-home activities have higher levels of intrapersonal variability in their daily trip frequency.     

An examination of the determinants of day-to-day variability in individuals' urban travel behavior

Day-to-day variability in individuals' travel behavior (intrapersonal variability) has been recognized in conceptual discussions, yet the analysis and modeling of urban travel are typically based on a single day record of each individual's travel. This paper develops and examines hypotheses regarding the determinants of intrapersonal variability in urban travel behavior.Two general hypotheses are formulated to describe the effects of motivations for travel and related behavior and of travel and related constraints on intrapersonal variability in weekday urban travel behavior. Specific hypotheses concerning the effect of various sociodernographic characteristics on intrapersonal variability are derived from these general hypotheses. These specific hypotheses are tested empirically in the context of daily trip frequency using a five-day record of travel in Reading, England.The empirical results support the two general hypotheses. First, individuals who have fewer economic and role-related constraints have higher levels of intrapersonal variability in their daily trip frequency. Second, individuals who fulfil personal and household needs that do not require daily participation in out-of-home activities have higher levels of intrapersonal variability in their daily trip frequency.     

Estimating the effects of entry regulation in the Istanbul taxicab market

The economic literature shows that entry regulation in taxicab markets brings about a dramatic increase in medallion prices or license values of taxicabs. However, there is no study estimating what the effect of regulation is exactly on real medallion prices. We develop a model to estimate the effect of entry restrictions in the Istanbul taxicab market over real medallion prices and inflation. Our findings contribute that entry regulation in taxicab markets increases medallion prices. Moreover, we find that entry regulation in Istanbul pressures inflation rates as well.     

钢管混凝土构件自振特性分析

钢管混凝土构件的自振特性（自振频率和振型）是结构动力特性分析和抗震设计的重要参数。文章根据结构自振特性分析理论,利用有限元模型对钢管混凝土构件的自振频率和振型进行了模拟分析,并阐述了自振频率和振型在桥梁损伤检测中的应用情况。     

Transport effects of e-commerce: what can be learned after years of research?

This paper offers an extensive review of conceptual and quantitative studies on the implications of business-to-consumer (b2c) e-commerce on mobility. To create a more comprehensive understanding of the mobility implications we also discuss the complementary side: freight transport. Most studies conducted thus far have looked at the consequences of b2c e-commerce for either personal travel or goods movement, but not for both. The added value of this review article is that it not only explores the conclusions drawn in the wide-ranging published research, but also attempts to review the sampling strategies, definitions, assumptions and methodologies that lead to the diverse conclusions. For example, the paper discusses the differences in how “e-shopping” is defined (whether it includes browsing or only purchasing) and with what frequency a respondent e-shops (however it is defined) in order to be considered an “e-shopper”. The review describes how product differentiation is necessary to scrutinize the mobility effects of e-commerce. It points to studies which tend to have a dual conclusion. We try to observe whether complementary effects are given the same level of attention as substitution effects. Each of these factors can have sizable impacts on the quantitative conclusions reached. Our aim is that, by calling attention to these issues, the conclusions of studies will be discussed in a rigorous way to improve our knowledge of the transportation impacts of online shopping.     

Bus congestion, optimal infrastructure investment and the choice of a fare collection system in dedicated bus corridors

Microeconomic optimisation of scheduled public transport operations has traditionally focused on finding optimal values for the frequency of service, capacity of vehicles, number of lines and distance between stops. In addition, however, there exist other elements in the system that present a trade-off between the interests of users and operators that have not received attention in the literature, such as the optimal selection of a fare payment system and a designed running speed (i.e., the cruising speed that buses maintain in between two consecutive stops). Alternative fare payment methods (e.g., on-board and off-board, payment by cash, magnetic strip or smart card) have different boarding times and capital costs, with the more efficient systems such as a contactless smart card imposing higher amounts of capital investment. Based on empirical data from several Bus Rapid Transit systems around the world, we also find that there is a positive relationship between infrastructure cost per kilometre and commercial speed (including stops), achieved by the buses, which we further postulate as a linear relationship between infrastructure investment and running speed. Given this context, we develop a microeconomic model for the operation of a bus corridor that minimises total cost (users and operator) and has five decision variables: frequency, capacity of vehicles, station spacing, fare payment system and running speed, thus extending the traditional framework. Congestion, induced by bus frequency, plays an important role in the design of the system, as queues develop behind high demand bus stops when the frequency is high. We show that (i) an off-board fare payment system is the most cost effective in the majority of circumstances; (ii) bus congestion results in decreased frequency while fare and bus capacity increase, and (iii) the optimal running speed grows with the logarithm of demand.     

Airline competition and market frequency: A comparison of the s-curve and schedule delay models

We compare two common ways of incorporating service frequency into models of airline competition. One is based on the so called s-curve, in which, all else equal, market shares are determined by frequency shares. The other is based on schedule delay—the time difference between when travelers wish to travel and when flights are available. We develop competition models that differ only with regard to which of the above approaches is used to capture the effect of frequency. The demand side of both models is an approximation of a nested logit model which yields endogenous travel demand by including not traveling in the choice set. We find symmetric competitive equilibrium for both models analytically, and compare their predictions concerning market frequency with empirical evidence. In contrast to the s-curve model, the schedule delay model depicts a more plausible relationship between market share and frequency share and accurately predicts observed patterns of supply side behavior. Moreover, the predictions from both models are largely the same if we employ numerical versions of the model that capture real-world aspects of competition. We also find that, for either model, the relationship between airline frequency and market traffic is the same whether frequency is determined by competitive equilibrium, social optimality, or social optimality with a break-even constraint.     

电磁感应加热在管道管口焊接预热中的应用

为适应大口径长距离管道优质高效建设的需要,采用电力半导体元件研制成功大口径管道管口中频预热设备并投入西气东输工程应用。实现了可控硅中频电源的风冷化、小型化及与自制的多功能移动电站的动力匹配;电磁感应加热器采用有断点开合结构及无断点技术,操作简便,性能可靠。克服了施工现场气候环境因素及管墩等障碍的影响,提高了管口预热综合效率,填补了国内现代感应技术在长输管道施工中应用的空白。     

河流穿越管道冲管段涡激振动研究

河流穿越管道冲管段主要是在管道露出河床的基础上,由于冲刷现象使管底“淘空”而形成。在分析冲管段河流中的涡旋发放现象和频率锁定现象的基础上,描述了涡旋发放规律的涡旋发放频率、约化速度等基本参数,及诱发涡旋发放的举升力、拖曳力、惯性力及来流速度等激振力。由如要避免类似共振现象,就要加大管子固有频率和涡旋发放频率的数量级的差距,得出必须及时抢修冲管段的最大长度的计算公式。     

沥青混合料动态特性试验研究

文章通过采用简单性能试验机（SPT）测量AC13、AC16和AC20三种沥青混凝土在不同温度和荷载作用频率下的动态模量和相位角,分析了温度和荷载作用频率对沥青混合料动态特性的影响,并依据时-温等效原理,对沥青混合料的粘弹性性质进行了研究。     

Comparing the unit emissions of daily frequency and slow steaming strategies on trunk route deployment in international container shipping

This study examines NO_x, SO₂, CO₂, HC, and PM reductions for international container shipping carriers from slow steaming and from making use of daily frequency strategies. The options are examined using activity-based methods for surveys on Far East-Europe routes. It is found that both strategies examined are effective in reducing emissions, with daily frequency more effective in reducing emission levels when slow steaming is not employed.