Tracking a system of shared autonomous vehicles across the Austin,Texas network using agent-based simulation

This study provides a large-scale micro-simulation of transportation patterns in a metropolitan area when relying on a system of shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs). The six-county region of Austin, Texas is used for its land development patterns, demographics, networks, and trip tables. The agent-based MATSim toolkit allows modelers to track individual travelers and individual vehicles, with great temporal and spatial detail. MATSim’s algorithms help improve individual travel plans (by changing tour and trip start times, destinations, modes, and routes). Here, the SAV mode requests were simulated through a stochastic process for four possible fare levels: $0.50, $0.75, $1, and $1.25 per trip-mile. These fares resulted in mode splits of 50.9, 12.9, 10.5, and 9.2% of the region’s person-trips, respectively. Mode choice results show longer-distance travelers preferring SAVs to private, human-driven vehicles (HVs)—thanks to the reduced burden of SAV travel (since one does not have to drive the vehicle). For travelers whose households do not own an HV, SAVs (rather than transit, walking and biking) appear preferable for trips under 10 miles, which is the majority of those travelers’ trip-making. It may be difficult for traditional transit services and operators to survive once SAVs become available in regions like Austin, where dedicated rail lines and bus lanes are few. Simulation of SAV fleet operations suggest that higher fare rates allow for greater vehicle replacement (ranging from 5.6 to 7.7 HVs per SAV, assuming that the average SAV serves 17–20 person-trips per day); when fares rise, travel demands shift away from longer trip distances. Empty vehicle miles traveled by the fleet of SAVs ranged from 7.8 to 14.2%, across the scenarios in this study. Implications of mobility and sustainability benefits of SAVs are also discussed in the paper.     

Management objectives and the causes of mass transit deficits

Based on data for the period from 1948 to 1997, exogenous decreases in demand and increases in costs are estimated to have reduced the annual profitability of the Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) by $1 billion. Half of this decline was recouped by reductions in service, increased fares and increased productivity. Even more would have been recouped had the CTA not given away earlier productivity gains during the 1970s. This was during a period when subsidies were increasing rapidly, and seemingly without constraint. When faced with financial challenges, management has preferred to increase fares rather than reduce service levels to the detriment of social welfare.     

Individual freight effects,capacity utilization,and Amtrak service quality

This paper offers a new perspective on the post-deregulation rail industry. We hypothesize that a link exists between individual freight effects and Amtrak service quality. Specifically, we investigate the relationship between freight control of the infrastructure on which Amtrak trains operate and Amtrak train delays. Our sample consists of 1117 directional station-pairs for fiscal years 2002 through 2007 on 28 Amtrak non-Northeast Corridor passenger routes. We found that freight effects have a significant impact on Amtrak train delays after controlling for other important delay determinants such as the capacity utilization rate. The impact is higher on long-distance routes. We also observed significant differences between the effects of different freight railroads. For example, Amtrak operations on infrastructure controlled by several Class I railroads experienced significantly larger delays than baseline operations, while Amtrak train delays on Burlington Northern and Santa Fe’s tracks actually fell below baseline levels.     

Bus rapid transit systems: a comparative assessment

There is renewed interest in many developing and developed countries in finding ways of providing efficient and effective public transport that does not come with a high price tag. An increasing number of nations are asking the question—what type of public transport system can deliver value for money? Although light rail has often been promoted as a popular ‘solution’, there has been progressively emerging an attractive alternative in the form of bus rapid transit (BRT). BRT is a system operating on its own right-of-way either as a full BRT with high quality interchanges, integrated smart card fare payment and efficient throughput of passengers alighting and boarding at bus stations; or as a system with some amount of dedicated right-of-way (light BRT) and lesser integration of service and fares. The notion that buses essentially operate in a constrained service environment under a mixed traffic regime and that trains have privileged dedicated right-of-way, is no longer the only sustainable and valid proposition. This paper evaluates the status of 44 BRT systems in operation throughout the world as a way of identifying the capability of moving substantial numbers of passengers, using infrastructure whose costs overall and per kilometre are extremely attractive. When ongoing lifecycle costs (operations and maintenance) are taken into account, the costs of providing high capacity integrated BRT systems are an attractive option in many contexts.     

The effect of code-share agreements on the temporal profile of airline fares

This paper aims at investigating how the pricing strategy of European airlines is affected by code-share agreements on international routes. Our data cover several routes linking the main UK airports to many European destinations and includes posted fares collected at different days before departure. By analyzing the temporal profile of airline fares, we identify three main results. First, code-share increases fares especially for early bookers. Second, the higher prices in code-shared flights are offered by marketing carriers. Finally, in single operator code-shared flights (unilateral code-share), the pricing profile is flatter than under parallel code-share.     

The impact of real-time information on bus ridership in New York City

In the past few years, numerous mobile applications have made it possible for public transit passengers to find routes and/or learn about the expected arrival time of their transit vehicles. Though these services are widely used, their impact on overall transit ridership remains unclear. The objective of this research is to assess the effect of real-time information provided via web-enabled and mobile devices on public transit ridership. An empirical evaluation is conducted for New York City, which is the setting of a natural experiment in which a real-time bus tracking system was gradually launched on a borough-by-borough basis beginning in 2011. Panel regression techniques are used to evaluate bus ridership over a three year period, while controlling for changes in transit service, fares, local socioeconomic conditions, weather, and other factors. A fixed effects model of average weekday unlinked bus trips per month reveals an increase of approximately 118 trips per route per weekday (median increase of 1.7% of weekday route-level ridership) attributable to providing real-time information. Further refinement of the fixed effects model suggests that this ridership increase may only be occurring on larger routes; specifically, the largest quartile of routes defined by revenue miles of service realized approximately 340 additional trips per route per weekday (median increase of 2.3% per route). Although the increase in weekday route-level ridership may appear modest, on aggregate these increases exert a substantial positive effect on farebox revenue. The implications of this research are critical to decision-makers at the country’s transit operators who face pressure to increase ridership under limited budgets, particularly as they seek to prioritize investments in infrastructure, service offerings, and new technologies.     

A comparative life-cycle energy and emissions analysis for intercity passenger transportation in the U.S. by aviation,intercity bus,and automobile

Intercity passenger trips constitute a significant source of energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and criteria pollutant emissions. The most commonly used city-to-city modes in the United States include aircraft, intercity bus, and automobile. This study applies state-of-the-practice models to assess life-cycle fuel consumption and pollutant emissions for intercity trips via aircraft, intercity bus, and automobile. The analyses compare the fuel and emissions impacts of different travel mode scenarios for intercity trips ranging from 200 to 1600 km. Because these modes operate differently with respect to engine technology, fuel type, and vehicle capacity, the modeling techniques and modeling boundaries vary significantly across modes. For aviation systems, much of the energy and emissions are associated with auxiliary equipment activities, infrastructure power supply, and terminal activities, in addition to the vehicle operations between origin/destination. Furthermore, one should not ignore the embodied energy and initial emissions from the manufacturing of the vehicles, and the construction of airports, bus stations, highways and parking lots. Passenger loading factors and travel distances also significantly influence fuel and emissions results on a per-traveler basis. The results show intercity bus is generally the most fuel-efficient mode and produced the lowest per-passenger-trip emissions for the entire range of trip distances examined. Aviation is not a fuel-efficient mode for short trips (<500 km), primarily due to the large energy impacts associated with takeoff and landing, and to some extent from the emissions of ground support equipment associated with any trip distance. However, aviation is more energy efficient and produces less emissions per-passenger-trip than low-occupancy automobiles for trip distances longer than 700–800 km. This study will help inform policy makers and transportation system operators about how differently each intercity system perform across all activities, and provides a basis for future policies designed to encourage mode shifts by range of service. The estimation procedures used in this study can serve as a reference for future analyses of transportation scenarios.     

Mass transit designed by the user

This paper describes the commuter ride sharing concept as it relates to growing commuter acceptance and the energy intensiveness of various modes. The 10 to 40% reduction in automobile vehicle miles of travel achieved by commuter ride sharing programs is attributed to the satisfaction of the commuter's desire for fast, convenient door-to-door service at a reasonable cost. This excellent level of service, similiar to the privately driven automobile requires the commuter's direct involvement in the development and coordination of such car, van and bus pool programs. Comparing the energy intensiveness of the various commuter modes, the vanpool is the best, consuming about one-half of the BTU's per passenger mile as other modes. When considering the energy required to reach the rail station or bus fringe parking area, the gap widens. Overall, the commuter ride sharing programs have the potential to save 500,000 barrels of oil per day in the U.S. while virtually eliminating traffic congestion and reducing air pollution.     

Regulatory policy and economies of scale in the U.S. intercity bus industry

After nearly a half century of federal and state regulation, the U.S. intercity bus industry is the subject of proposals which would drastically reduce the extent of governmental control over fare setting, service abandonment, and market entry. An essential requirement for understanding how these regulatory changes might affect the industry is knowing the extent to which economies of scale are present in the provision of intercity bus services. This paper reports on the analysis of economies of scale for both Class I firms and for Class II and III firms. The results show nearly constant returns to scale beyond very low output levels but very strong dependence on the mix of charter and regular-route service provided.     

Bus policy — Conclusions from a case study

The main policy conclusions from a recent bus study in the new town of Telford in the U.K. are summarised and discussed. The choice of bus routes and their combination into networks is examined. Alternative fares systems are compared and the implications for the fare levels necessary to cover costs are discussed. It is argued that bus services can generally be financed from the fare-box but that, unless services are cut as passenger demand falls, unduly high fares will result and these will unnecessarily drive more passengers away from the buses. Several particular aspects of service marketing are then examined and the paper concludes by discussing the actual organisation of the bus services.     

Assessing the quality of intercity road transportation of passengers: An exploratory study in Brazil

In Brazil, buses represent the main mode of public transportation. However, in recent years intercity and interstate bus companies have been facing a growing competition with other forms of transportation such as bus companies competitors, illegal transportation companies, chartered buses, and, more recently, air companies. In this scenario characterized by growing competition, it is essential to evaluate the quality of road transportation of passengers. In order to contribute to the analysis of this issue, this paper presents a methodological approach to assess the quality of intercity road transportation of passengers, according to the customers’ perspective. By conducting a case study in a city of almost 500,000 inhabitants from the interior of Rio de Janeiro, an Importance–Satisfaction Analysis (ISA) and an assignment procedure were used in order to obtain: (i) the main factors (criteria) that influence the quality of service intercity road transportation of passengers, (ii) the importance degree of criteria related to road transportation of passengers, (iii) the satisfaction of the users of road transportation under the considered criteria, (iv) the critical criteria/items, and (v) the categories which best represent the quality of service intercity road transportation according to the passengers’ perspective. Finally, several possible corrective actions to improve the quality of services considering each critical item/criterion were highlighted and special recommendations were done for the critical process (ticket sales).     

Application of path analysis methodology to transit system maintenance performance

This paper develops a conceptual framework for bus maintenance based on path analysis and applies it to forty-eight bus transit systems. The application determines the total, direct, and indirect effects of the variables identified as having significant causal links with maintenance cost per mile. These variables are identified using the stepwise regression method. The findings are that the wage rate and fleet size increase maintenance cost directly and indirectly. In terms of the standardized regression coefficients, fleet size has been found to be the most important factor affecting maintenance cost per mile, followed by the proportion of articulated buses, the wage rate and local subsidy in that order. The proportion of articulated buses has been found to reduce maintenance cost per mile directly and to increase it indirectly. The indirect path coefficient of the proportion of articulated buses is 0.1794 whereas the direct path coefficient is –0.351. Similarly local subsidy as a proportion of revenue increases maintenance cost per mile directly and reduces it indirectly. The corresponding path coefficients for the direct and indirect effects of local subsidy are 0.2553 and –0.1073. In addition population density and the peak-base ratio are positively and significantly associated with miles between roadcalls. The implications of these findings are briefly examined in this paper. Because the path analysis methodology allows the direct and indirect effects of a causal variable to be determined, it is recommended for policy analysis.     

Demand for buses in Japanese medium sized cities

The number of bus passenger has been decreasing in Japan since 1969. The increase in car ownership and development in urban rapid rail network has deprived bus service of passengers. The bus industry has suffered from depression for the last twenty years. However, many bus routes are still operated commercially. The amount of external subsidies is not large. The industry is under strict regulation. The common way for bus operators has been to increase fares rapidly in order to keep their break even condition. The first half of the paper describes present circumstances of the bus industry in more details. Then the second half of the paper treats the estimation of the effect of each factor on bus demand by using pooled data in Japanese medium sized cities. The results suggest that the increase in car ownership has had a crucial effect on local public transport demand and is likely to continue to do so.     

Transport system management in San Francisco: an assessment

The paper reports the results of a transportation corridor study. The emphasis in the study is in transportation system management (TSM) policies although some capital intensive alternatives are also considered.

The results suggest that currently popular TSM policies in U.S.A., even when augmented with capital intensive changes, have only marginal impacts on modal choices. These currently popular policies, high occupancy vehicle priority lanes, improved bus and express bus service, increased feeder bus service and so forth, appear to confer benefits to well to do suburbanites but do not improve the transportation of urban dwellers.

Another interesting result is that if user costs were increased to cover the full costs of transportation the transit fares for low income people would increase ten percent and the increase for urban dwellers would be about 20 percent. Interestingly, there would be no change in bus fares for either group. However, for high income travellers and suburbanites the increase in transit fares would be in excess of 100 percent. Thus, the current fare structure is inequitable making the low income people and the urban dwellers to pay a much larger share of their transportation cost than the often well to do suburbanites.     

Intercity rail services: A nested logit stated choice analysis of pricing options

There is a renewed interest in intercity and long-distance rail services in many countries, with both new high-speed rail services and improvements to conventional rail under review. The current study reports on an investigation using a stated choice experiment, of the demand for sleeper services between Sydney, Northern New South Wales (NSW) and Brisbane in Australia, a 12 to 14 hour trip, just after a decision by the NSW government to temporarily suspend sleeper services and introduce seating service only, pending an inquiry into the demand for such loss-making services under alternative price and service levels. A matrix of direct fare elasticities within the rail mode and between rail and competing modes are obtained for concession and non-concession travellers from a nested logit model. The empirical evidence extends our knowledge of the sensitivity of the long distance passenger market to a range of rails fares, distinguishing between classes of fares and levels of service.     

Economic effects of air transport market liberalization in Africa

Although the aviation industry is increasingly becoming important for Africa’s economic development and integration, the ability of airlines to access foreign markets remains hindered by restrictive regulatory policies. Attempts have been made to fully liberalize the intra-African air transport market. Except for general assertions about the merits/demerits of liberalization, our empirical understanding of the welfare effects of such polices in Africa remains rudimentary. This study empirically measures the economic effects of air transport liberalization, mainly on two supply side variables: fare and service quality, measured as departure frequency. The empirical models evaluate how air fares and departure frequency respond to measures of openness in air services agreements, while controlling for other determinants. The results show up to 40% increase in departure frequency in routes that experienced some type of liberalization compared to those governed by restrictive bilateral air service agreements. Furthermore, there is a relatively larger increase in departure frequency in routes which experienced partial liberalization compared to fully liberalized ones. This can be explained by the diminishing marginal effect of progressive liberalization on departure frequency. While the effect of liberalization is substantial in improving service quality, there is no evidence of its fare reducing effect.     

Mass transportation needs and financing in the United States

The U.S. Department of Transportation (1974) recently completed a comprehensive study of mass transportation needs and methods for financing these needs. Using information from the 1974 National Transportation Study, the study determined the level of capital and operating funds that would be required to implement the 1972–90 long-range plans and 1972–80 short-range programs of the states and urbanized areas. It then analyzed various funding mechanisms at state and local levels for financing their portions of these plans and programs.It was found that urban areas, in general, not only plan to stabilize transit fares in the face of rising costs, but also intend to put $ 23.6 billion into capital investments through 1980 and an additional $ 34.6 billion through 1990. Of the total $ 58.2 billion in capital expenditures by 1990, 63% would be expended by the nine largest urbanized areas; 27.8% by the New York area alone. Rail transit and commuter railroad costs would account for 90% of the nine largest urbanized areas.States and localities would be able to carry the financial burden of mass transportation improvements, even if the proposed 1980 programs were implemented in their entirety, given current levels of Federal assistance. However, there would have to be a substantial financial commitment from the states and localities and some hard decisions made by them about public expenditure priorities, fare policies, and taxation levels, and policies to discourage automobile usage. This underscores the need for careful review of their overall plans and programs by state and local officials before making financial commitments.     

Impact assessment of the Internet of Things on feeder transit performance

ABSTRACT

Efficient planning for demand responsive transit (DRT) can contribute to fulfilling the first/last mile transport needs for users of a major transit line. With the advancement in communication technologies, the internet is expected to assist this growing need of providing first/last mile connectivity. This is proposed to be achieved through a network created by Internet of Things (IoT). This paper evaluates the effect of implementation of IoT on service quality (or disutility) of DRT for two scenarios – with enabled-IoT (e-IoT) and with disabled-IoT (d-IoT). Data from five different DRT-like systems known as Call-n-Ride (CnR) routes operating in Denver, Colorado, are used for evaluation purposes. These CnR routes are Meridian, Interlocken, South Inverness, Broomfield and Louisville. Results show that, in general, all CnR routes would experience more than a 58 percent decrease in disutility if their operations were based on ‘with e-IoT’ operations. Interlocken would record the largest percentage decrease (74 percent) in disutility if its route service switched from the ‘with d-IoT’ to the ‘with e-IoT’ scenario.     

Economic impact of a supply change in mass transit in urban areas: A Canadian example

This paper aims at estimating the economic impact of a supply change in the bus transit service in a Canadian city of medium size. By using a quasi-experiment approach and a difference-in-differences (DID) estimator, it evaluates the impact of the introduction of a rapid bus transit (RBT) in Quebec City (Canada) through a spatio-temporal analysis of house price variations. The hedonic price model shows that the new service generates an increase in house price ranging from 6.9% to 2.9%, for those properties located close to the service corridor where the population is quite dense and where the service was offered initially. Using sales transaction data and municipal assessment records from 1997, the effect on price is translated into an economic impact for the whole region. The paper shows that the improvement in public transit supply generates, for Quebec City, a significant fiscal impact estimated to $6 M and a plus-value for properties owners close to $35 M over 12 years. Finally, the implications of this kind of analysis for urban planning and development are discussed.     

Accounting for travel time variability in the optimal pricing of cars and buses

A number of studies have shown that in addition to travel time and cost as the common influences on mode, route and departure time choices, travel time variability plays an increasingly important role, especially in the presence of traffic congestion on roads and crowding on public transport. The dominant focus of modelling and implementation of optimal pricing that incorporates trip time variability has been in the context of road pricing for cars. The main objective of this paper is to introduce a non-trivial extension to the existing literature on optimal pricing in a multimodal setting, building in the role of travel time variability as a source of disutility for car and bus users. We estimate the effect of variability in travel time and bus headway on optimal prices (i.e., tolls for cars and fares for buses) and optimal bus capacity (i.e., frequencies and size) accounting for crowding on buses, under a social welfare maximisation framework. Travel time variability is included by adopting the well-known mean–variance model, using an empirical relationship between the mean and standard deviation of travel times. We illustrate our model with an application to a highly congested corridor with cars, buses and walking as travel alternatives in Sydney, Australia. There are three main findings that have immediate policy implications: (i) including travel time variability results in higher optimal car tolls and substantial increases in toll revenue, while optimal bus fares remain almost unchanged; (ii) when bus headways are variable, the inclusion of travel time variability as a source of disutility for users yields higher optimal bus frequencies; and (iii) including both travel time variability and crowding discomfort leads to higher optimal bus sizes.