A survey of Hungarian transport policy

Abstract

In its introductory part this article discusses the principles of the transport policy approved in 1968, followed by the reasons behind the advances on this policy approved in 1978.

It then goes on to review the Hungarian transport pattern and organization, including the roles played by the railways, the road transport companies, the state‐owned enterprises as well as cooperatives, urban transport, shipping, air transport, pipelines, and private transport.

In discussing the division of labour (or market sharing) in transport it concludes that passenger transport is increasing slowly, while the proportion of private transport is continuing to rise. A moderate increase is expected in goods transport with a decline in the share of the railways and a rise in that of the other transport branches. This division of labour is being influenced by economic, not administrative, means.

The main target of the advanced transport policy is to shape a transport system which corresponds to socioeconomic requirements. This means that goods transport capacities must be put to more efficient use, which involves improving development, organizational and planning operations. In passenger transport priority must go to public transport while the proportion of private transport must be defined in keeping with demand and economic possibilities.

In the development of the infrastructure and investments, the need to improve energy use and protect the environment must be stressed.

The rest of the article presents the detailed reasoning behind the measures already taken and scheduled to be taken to achieve these main targets.     

Transport infrastructure and regional economic growth: evidence from China

This article develops a multi-dimensions measurement of transport infrastructure and examines the linkage between transport infrastructure and regional economic growth. A panel data model is estimated using data from a sample of 31 Chinese provinces from 1998 to 2007. The results provide strong evidence that transport infrastructure plays an important role in economic growth. Both land transport and water transport infrastructure have strong and significant impacts, while the contribution of airway transport infrastructure is weak. Furthermore, land transport infrastructure contributes more to economic growth in locations with poor land transport infrastructure, while the investment in water transport infrastructure contribute positively to economic growth only after the investment scale exceeds a threshold level. These results are robust to a variety of alternative methods, the exclusion of possible outliers, and consideration of endogeneity. A retrospective analysis shows that uneven distribution of transport infrastructure is an important reason behind economic disparities across Chinese regions.     

Changes in transport planning policy: Changes in transport planning methodology?

The 1990s saw the emergence of influential transport legislation both in the UK and in the USA. This "watershed" period appears to indicate that a significant turning point in transport policy is underway. There is now a need to re-evaluate how transport planning is done, and to consider changes to commonly used methods. Criticisms of urban transport planning are traced in the paper. These often focus on the four-stage modelling approach, but some authors also criticise the "rational comprehensive" paradigmatical framework within which the use of four-stage computer models is situated. It is argued that the rational comprehensive model of thinking is less useful today, due to the increasing complexity of the transport planning exercise; the rejection by the public of the transport planner as "expert"; and the highly political nature of transport planning. Alternative approaches are needed in order to address the new types of problems which transport planners face. The use of one such alternative approach, the Soft Systems Methodology, is illustrated as suitable for investigating complex decision-making systems in transport planning. It is suggested that this method could be beneficial in other problematic transport planning situations where the rational comprehensive approaches prove inadequate. Finally, the paper briefly looks ahead and considers the implications of a changing policy environment to the training of transport planners in the future.     

An environmental economic analysis of the new rail link to European main port Rotterdam

After a long policy debate it has been decided to built in the near future a new rail link (Betuwe line) in the Netherlands to handle the rapidly increasing volume of goods to be transported from Rotterdam harbour to the centre of Europe. This study analyses its economic and environmental aspects and compares rail transport with road transport and transport on inland waterways. It is shown that transport by water will compete strongly with transport on the new railway and that water transport is attractive economically and environmentally.     

Urban public transport in Europe: Technology diffusion and market organisation

Technological change and incremental technology, at various levels, are believed to have played an important role in the success of urban public transport in Europe. In this paper, a historical overview of the evolution of different transport modes across different European cities is presented. Our major concern is with the processes of diffusion of urban transport modes in European cities and, in particular, with the factors, mainly of an economic nature, that may explain their rates of adoption across Europe. Among these factors, special attention is given to the role played by the dimension and organisation of public transport markets in the rates of adoption of different public transport modes. The main conclusion of the paper is that the success of the introduction of a new transport mode appeared to be mainly related to its ability to provide cheaper and more reliable transport services compared with previous transport modes, and that, in the case of the electric tram, this was achieved by transforming of the structure of the market relating to this urban transport mode into monopolies.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from road transport in South Africa and Lesotho between 2000 and 2009

Road transport is the major source of global greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector, contributing about three quarters towards the total transport emissions. This study used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Tier 2 approach to calculate greenhouse gas emissions from road transport in South Africa and Lesotho between 2000 and 2009. Key transport emitting sources, trend analysis and modal intensities were determined for the two countries. For South Africa, provincial road transport emissions were calculated from the number of vehicles by vehicle type and distance travelled. Calculations were at a national level in Lesotho. Road transport carbon dioxide equivalent emissions were estimated at 43.5 million tonnes in South Africa and 0.28 million tonnes in Lesotho in 2009. Motorcars and trucks produced 70.6% of the total road transport emissions in South Africa. Road transport emissions increased by approximately 2.6% per year between 2000 and 2009 in South Africa, while they increased by approximately 2.5% per annum in Lesotho over the same period. Gauteng province had the highest emissions, contributing approximately a third of total road transport emissions in South Africa; while the Northern Cape contributed only 2%. Minibus taxis were the most efficient transport mode on the basis of load carried. The Northern Cape had the highest emissions per passenger-kilometres and tonne-kilometre while the North West had the lowest. Trend assessment showed that emissions from trucks increased rapidly while emissions from other modes of transport decreased over the study period.     

Comparison of road freight transport trends in Europe. Coupling and decoupling factors from an Input–Output structural decomposition analysis

Decoupling road freight transport from economic growth has been acknowledged by the European Union as a key means to improving sustainability. It is therefore important to identify both the coupling and decoupling drivers of road freight transport demand in order to determine possible factors that may contribute to reduce road transport in the future without curbing economic development. This research proposes an Input–Output (IO) structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to explain road freight transport in terms of a set of key factors that have strongly influenced road freight demand in recent decades in European countries—such as economic growth, economic structure and the evolution of road transport intensity (including improvements in both supply and transport systems). This methodological approach allows us to quantify and compare their contribution in different European countries to either increase or decrease road freight transport demand. The empirical basis for this analysis is a dataset of nine European countries which have IO tables and road transport data available from 2000 to 2007, comprising data on domestic production, imports and exports as well as tonne-kms for 11 types of commodity classes. The results show that, as a whole, aggregate road transport demand has grown—driven mainly by economic activity—but this growth has been strongly curbed in some countries by changes in road freight transport intensity and moderately by the dematerialization of the economy. International transport has been also proven to be a key factor driving road freight transport volumes. Moreover, the increased penetration of foreign operators in national haulage markets appears to have reinforced the final decoupling levels observed in some cases.     

Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport: The Sixth International Conference,Cape Town,South Africa,September 1999 - Part 2

This paper presents an overview of some recent developments in and policy issues relating to integrated transport systems in the European Union (EU). Both goods and passenger transport systems are considered in the context of actions recently undertaken and supported by the EU. The paper considers the very general background of these systems at the EU scale and offers insights into some recent successful and promising policy, real-life, and research attainments. In addition, it attempts to identify some directions for future actions in fields such as transport policy, transport technology, transport economics and transport scenarios.     

Environmental benefits from better freight transport management: freight traffic in a VAR model

Most macro empirical studies on the price elasticity in the freight transport sector focus on the demand for transport. However, most of the external costs from the freight transport sector are more closely linked with the traffic volumes. In the paper an explicit distinction between traffic and transport demand is made by regarding traffic as an input in the shippers’ production of transport services, while transport demand is derived from firms’ production of output. An empirical analysis based on aggregate time series is carried out in a VAR model, where the stationary long run relationships are estimated using the so-called ‘Johansen Procedure’. The estimated price elasticity with respect to traffic (−0.81) is considerably higher than the elasticity with respect to transport (−0.47).     

Impacts of combining partial and general equilibrium modelling in freight transport analyses – a forest sector case study from Norway

Abstract

The forest sector in Norway is very transport intensive, accounting for approximately 14% of total domestic freight transport traffic on Norwegian roads. This paper presents an analysis linking a general equilibrium freight transport modelling tool with a partial equilibrium model of the forest sector. The freight transport model predicts transport costs, modal split and transport patterns, and the results are treated as inputs to the forest sector model. The objective of the paper is to analyse the modelling effect of taking forest sector model effects back into the freight transport model and treated as new demand. Compared to a base scenario for the year 2020, we compare analyses with and without this new demand from the forest sector model back into the freight transport modelling tool.     

Physical characteristics of paratransit in developing countries of Asia

Paratransit modes play a significant role in the urban transport sectors of developing countries since in many cities more than half of the total public transport demand are carried by them. Rapid increase in urban population, per capita income, along with inadequate existing transport infrastructures have stimulated their usage as cheap and convenient public transport modes. This paper examines their present role and physical characteristics in a comparative form to provide a basic data for discussion of urban transport issues in developing cities.     

高铁时代下广西道路客运企业面临的机遇与挑战探析

文章从高铁时代下高铁运输对传统道路运输的冲击入手,结合区域经济发展情况,分析道路运输企业所面临的挑战和发展机遇,探讨了高铁与道路客运的优劣性,提出道路客运企业应对挑战、走出困境、持续发展的对策。     

综合交通线网规划方案合理性评价内涵探讨

文章从合理性的一般哲学解释出发,论证出综合交通线网规划方案合理性存在的必然性,然后分别从多方式合理分工、各交通线路分阶段整体推进、交通线网投资实施总体控制、交通网络构建符合OD分布规律、以及线网规划目标考虑资源消耗限制等方面,深入分析合理的综合交通体系应具备的特征,并由此推荐系列评价指标集,从而为综合交通线网规划方案合理性评价提供理论依据。     

成品油顺序输送中混油量的计算

文中介绍了顺序输油管道工艺特点,结合顺序输送工艺特性给出了顺序输送中产生混油的机理,详细叙述了顺序输送过程中混油量的计算公式,包括混油量的理论计算公式和经验计算公式,并结合运行管道在顺序输送过程中产生混油量进行分析,给出顺序输送减少混油的措施。     

Modal-split effects of climate change: The effect of low water levels on the competitive position of inland waterway transport in the river Rhine area

Future climate change is expected to affect inland waterway transport in most main natural waterways in Europe. For the river Rhine it is expected that, in summer, more and longer periods with low water levels will occur. In periods of low water levels inland waterway vessels have to reduce their load factors and, as a result, transport prices per tonne will increase. One possible consequence of these higher transport prices is a deterioration of the competitive position of inland waterway transport compared with rail and road transport, and thus a change in modal split. We study this issue using a GIS-based software model called NODUS which provides a tool for the detailed analysis of freight transportation over extensive multimodal networks. We assess the effect of low water levels on the costs of transport operations for inland waterway transport in North West Europe under several climate scenarios. It turns out, that the effect on the modal split is limited. Under the most extreme climate scenario, inland waterway transport would lose about 5.4% of the quantity that is currently being transported annually in the part of the European inland waterway transport market considered. The very dry year of 2003 can be seen as an analogue for this scenario.     

September 11 and the World Airline Financial Crisis

Abstract

This paper analyses the effectiveness of policy measures aimed at triggering a modal shift in the freight transport market. The analysis is based on the inventory‐theoretic framework that studies modal choice from a business logistics viewpoint. The crux of the inventory‐theoretic approach lies in the fact that explicit attention is paid to all costs in the supply chain that are affected by the choice of transport mode. After a brief literature review on the inventory‐theoretic framework, the framework is used to calculate the market shares of different freight transport modes for a hypothetical transport market. In a second step, the impact of some policy measures on the market shares of the transport modes is calculated. By way of illustration, the analysis is applied to the market for container transport from a seaport to its hinterland. It is shown that a combination of certain policy measures can lead to significant modal shifts from road transport to intermodal transport.     

Sustainability assessment of inland transportation in China: A triple bottom line-based network DEA approach

The transport sector accounts for nearly one third of the world’s total energy use, while inland transport alone is responsible for half of the global petroleum consumption. The expansion of motorization in newly industrialized economies necessitates setting realistic targets. To support decision-makers in better assessment of transport sustainability performance, we introduce a systematic triple bottom line-based approach to evaluate inland transport, considering social, economic, and environmental dimensions of sustainability. The proposed network data envelopment analysis (DEA) measure organizes the three components of the system into a parallel structure, allocates shared input across subsystems, and incorporates undesirable output. The empirical application determines the efficiency of regional inland transportation systems in China from 2006 to 2015. The results indicate a rise in overall transport efficiency between China’s 11th and 12th five-year development plan periods and link the economic growth with a decrease in environmental transport efficiency in the Central and Western zones and with a decline in social efficiency in the Eastern zone. Since 2012, the social sustainability remains the weakest component of inland transport, which requires special attention by policy-makers to support vulnerable groups of transport users. This study provides further insight into the investigated measures and proposes recommendations for the improvement of inland transport in China.     

Short Sea Shipping’s Green Label at Risk

Abstract

Shifting cargo from land‐based modes to maritime transport has been a prioritized policy in many policy papers to make transport more environmental friendly. Traditional calculations of emissions per transport capacity unit have supported this. However, maritime transport may stand to loose its good environmental reputation in comparison to road transport due to (1) the sluggish processes in maritime environmental policies and the low ambition level of current regulations, (2) the much higher focus on improving the environmental efficiency of the road haulage industry, (3) the much longer economic life of vessels compared to trucks, and (4) focus on faster vessels that increase the average fuel consumption of the sea transport alternative. Through a realistic case study, the energy efficiency and emissions of alternative multimodal transport chains is presented to illustrate these points.     

A procedure for estimating transit subsidization requirements for developing countries

The paper presents a procedure that has been developed for estimating subsidization requirements for urban transit services in developing countries. The procedure is based on a subsidization policy of reducing transport expenditure burden on the average commuter, by maintaining his transport expenditure-income ratio at a reasonable level. It is designed for both regulated and deregulated transport markets. It requires, as input, historical data (previous year) on fare, productivity, and load factor for the transport service or mode concerned, the transport expenditure-income ratio distribution of the commuters, and the current level of commuter personal transport allowance. It is based on the premise that transport expenditure-income ratio is inversely related to income. The subsidization formula developed in the paper yields a level of subsidy that is commensurate with the level of control a government is able to exercise over transit operations.