What drives people to accept automated vehicles? Findings from a field experiment

This field study aims at understanding the influence of direct experience of an automated vehicle (AV, Level 3) and explaining and predicting public acceptance of AVs through a psychological model. The model includes behavioral intention (BI) to use self-driving vehicles (SDVs, Level 5), willingness to re-ride (WTR) in our AV (Level 3), and their four potential determinants, namely perceived usefulness (PU), perceived ease of use (PEU), trust related to SDVs, and perceived safety (PS) while riding in our AV. The last two determinants are largely ignored, but we consider them critical in the context of AVs. Three-hundred students were invited as participants (passengers) to experience the AV. The trust, PU, PEU, and BI of the participants were recorded prior to their experiencing the AV; after this experience, all the constructs of the psychological model were recorded. The participants’ experience with the AV was found to increase their trust, PU and PEU (but not BI), the consistency between PU/PEU and BI, and the explanatory power of BI. The model explained 55% of the variance in BI and 40% in WTR. PU, trust, and PS were found to be steady and direct predictors of both the acceptance measures; PEU predicted BI only after the participants’ AV experience. Mediation analysis showed that trust also can indirectly affect AV acceptance through other determinants. Out-of-sample prediction confirmed the model’s predictive capability for AV acceptance. The theoretical contributions and practical implications of the findings are discussed.     

Autonomous vehicle perception: The technology of today and tomorrow

Perception system design is a vital step in the development of an autonomous vehicle (AV). With the vast selection of available off-the-shelf schemes and seemingly endless options of sensor systems implemented in research and commercial vehicles, it can be difficult to identify the optimal system for one’s AV application. This article presents a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art AV perception technology available today. It provides up-to-date information about the advantages, disadvantages, limits, and ideal applications of specific AV sensors; the most prevalent sensors in current research and commercial AVs; autonomous features currently on the market; and localization and mapping methods currently implemented in AV research. This information is useful for newcomers to the AV field to gain a greater understanding of the current AV solution landscape and to guide experienced researchers towards research areas requiring further development. Furthermore, this paper highlights future research areas and draws conclusions about the most effective methods for AV perception and its effect on localization and mapping. Topics discussed in the Perception and Automotive Sensors section focus on the sensors themselves, whereas topics discussed in the Localization and Mapping section focus on how the vehicle perceives where it is on the road, providing context for the use of the automotive sensors. By improving on current state-of-the-art perception systems, AVs will become more robust, reliable, safe, and accessible, ultimately providing greater efficiency, mobility, and safety benefits to the public.     

Optimal deployment of autonomous vehicle lanes with endogenous market penetration

This paper develops a mathematical approach to optimize a time-dependent deployment plan of autonomous vehicle (AV) lanes on a transportation network with heterogeneous traffic stream consisting of both conventional vehicles (CVs) and AVs, so as to minimize the social cost and promote the adoption of AVs. Specifically, AV lanes are exclusive lanes that can only be utilized by AVs, and the deployment plan specifies when, where, and how many AV lanes to be deployed. We first present a multi-class network equilibrium model to describe the flow distributions of both CVs and AVs, given the presence of AV lanes in the network. Considering that the net benefit (e.g., reduced travel cost) derived from the deployment of AV lanes will further promote the AV adoption, we proceed to apply a diffusion model to forecast the evolution of AV market penetration. With the equilibrium model and diffusion model, a time-dependent deployment model is then formulated, which can be solved by an efficient solution algorithm. Lastly, numerical examples based on the south Florida network are presented to demonstrate the proposed models.     

Impacts of highly automated vehicles on travel demand: macroscopic modeling methods and some results

Automated vehicles (AV) will change transport supply and influence travel demand. To evaluate those changes, existing travel demand models need to be extended. This paper presents ways of integrating characteristics of AV into traditional macroscopic travel demand models based on the four-step algorithm. It discusses two model extensions. The first extension allows incorporating impacts of AV on traffic flow performance by assigning specific passenger car unit factors that depend on roadway type and the capabilities of the vehicles. The second extension enables travel demand models to calculate demand changes caused by a different perception of travel time as the active driving time is reduced. The presented methods are applied to a use case of a regional macroscopic travel demand model. The basic assumption is that AV are considered highly but not fully automated and still require a driver for parts of the trip. Model results indicate that first-generation AV, probably being rather cautious, may decrease traffic performance. Further developed AV will improve performance on some parts of the network. Together with a reduction in active driving time, cars will become even more attractive, resulting in a modal shift towards car. Both circumstances lead to an increase in time spent and distance traveled.

     

Designing optimal autonomous vehicle sharing and reservation systems: A linear programming approach

Autonomous vehicle (AV) technology holds great promise for improving the efficiency of traditional vehicle sharing systems. In this paper, we investigate a new vehicle sharing system using AVs, referred to as autonomous vehicle sharing and reservation (AVSR). In such a system, travelers can request AV trips ahead of time and the AVSR system operator will optimally arrange AV pickup and delivery schedules and AV trip chains based on these requests. A linear programming model is proposed to efficiently solve for optimal solutions for AV trip chains and required fleet size through constructed AVSR networks. Case studies show that AVSR can significantly increase vehicle use rate (VUR) and consequentially reduce vehicle ownership significantly. In the meantime, it is found that the actual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in AVSR systems is not significantly more than that of conventional taxis, despite inevitable empty hauls for vehicle relocation in AVSR systems. The results imply huge potential benefits from AVSR systems on improving mobility and sustainability of our current transportation systems.     

Parents’ perspectives on using autonomous vehicles to enhance children’s mobility

Prior research has estimated the impact of an autonomous vehicle (AV) environment on the mobility of underserved populations such as adult non-drivers. What is currently unknown is the impact of AVs on enhancing the mobility of children who are also mobility disadvantaged, as child passengers are likely part of AV ridership scenarios in the perceivable future. To address this question, our study collected perceived benefits and concerns of AVs from a US convenience sample of parents whose children relied on them for mobility. We found that parents’ intentions to travel in AV and their technology readiness as well as parent (sex, residence area) and child (age, restraint system) demographic profiles were important determinants of potential AV acceptance and impact. In addition, two groups of potential AV users emerged from the data: the curious and the practical. This study addresses a gap in the literature by assessing parents’ perspectives on using AVs to transport children. The results have great potentials to guide the design of mobility features, safety evaluations, and implementation policies, as a decline in public interest in AVs has been recently documented.     

Roads in transition: Integrated modeling of a manufacturer-traveler-infrastructure system in a mixed autonomous/human driving environment

This paper develops an integrated model to characterize the market penetration of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in urban transportation networks. The model explicitly accounts for the interplay among the AV manufacturer, travelers with heterogeneous values of travel time (VOTT), and road infrastructure capacity. By making in-vehicle time use more leisurely or productive, AVs reduce travelers’ VOTT. In addition, AVs can move closer together than human-driven vehicles because of shorter safe reaction time, which leads to increased road capacity. On the other hand, the use of AV technologies means added manufacturing cost and higher price. Thus, traveler adoption of AVs will trade VOTT savings with additional out-of-pocket cost. The model is structured as a leader (AV manufacturer)-follower (traveler) game. Given the cost of producing AVs, the AV manufacturer sets AV price to maximize profit while anticipating AV market penetration. Given an AV price, the vehicle and routing choice of heterogeneous travelers are modeled by combining a multinomial logit model with multi-modal multi-class user equilibrium (UE). The overall problem is formulated as a mathematical program with complementarity constraints (MPCC), which is challenging to solve. We propose a solution approach based on piecewise linearization of the MPCC as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) and solving the MILP to global optimality. Non-uniform distribution of breakpoints that delimit piecewise intervals and feasibility-based domain reduction are further employed to reduce the approximation error brought by linearization. The model is implemented in a simplified Singapore network with extensive sensitivity analyses and the Sioux Falls network. Computational results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the solution approach and yield valuable insights about transportation system performance in a mixed autonomous/human driving environment.     

Fully autonomous vehicles: analyzing transportation network performance and operating scenarios in the Greater Toronto Area,Canada

Fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) have the potential to considerably change urban mobility in the future. This study simulates potential AV operating scenarios in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada, and assesses transportation system performance on a regional level. For each scenario, the base capacities of certain types of road links are modified to simulate the theoretical increase in throughput enabled by AV driving behavior. Another scenario examines driverless parking operations in downtown Toronto. Simulation results indicate that the increased attractiveness of freeways relative to other routes leads to slightly increased average travel distance as vehicles divert to access higher capacity road links. Average travel time is found to decrease by up to one-fifth at the 90% AV market penetration level. Concurrently, localized increases in congestion suggest that proactive transportation planning will be needed to mitigate negative consequences of AV adoption, especially in relation to induced demand for personal automobile travel.     

Transit-oriented autonomous vehicle operation with integrated demand-supply interaction

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) represent potentially disruptive and innovative changes to public transportation (PT) systems. However, the exact interplay between AV and PT is understudied in existing research. This paper proposes a systematic approach to the design, simulation, and evaluation of integrated autonomous vehicle and public transportation (AV + PT) systems. Two features distinguish this research from the state of the art in the literature: the first is the transit-oriented AV operation with the purpose of supporting existing PT modes; the second is the explicit modeling of the interaction between demand and supply.We highlight the transit-orientation by identifying the synergistic opportunities between AV and PT, which makes AVs more acceptable to all the stakeholders and respects the social-purpose considerations such as maintaining service availability and ensuring equity. Specifically, AV is designed to serve first-mile connections to rail stations and provide efficient shared mobility in low-density suburban areas. The interaction between demand and supply is modeled using a set of system dynamics equations and solved as a fixed-point problem through an iterative simulation procedure. We develop an agent-based simulation platform of service and a discrete choice model of demand as two subproblems. Using a feedback loop between supply and demand, we capture the interaction between the decisions of the service operator and those of the travelers and model the choices of both parties. Considering uncertainties in demand prediction and stochasticity in simulation, we also evaluate the robustness of our fixed-point solution and demonstrate the convergence of the proposed method empirically.We test our approach in a major European city, simulating scenarios with various fleet sizes, vehicle capacities, fare schemes, and hailing strategies such as in-advance requests. Scenarios are evaluated from the perspectives of passengers, AV operators, PT operators, and urban mobility system. Results show the trade off between the level of service and the operational cost, providing insight for fleet sizing to reach the optimal balance. Our simulated experiments show that encouraging ride-sharing, allowing in-advance requests, and combining fare with transit help enable service integration and encourage sustainable travel. Both the transit-oriented AV operation and the demand-supply interaction are essential components for defining and assessing the roles of the AV technology in our future transportation systems, especially those with ample and robust transit networks.     

A statistical analysis of consumer perceptions towards automated vehicles and their intended adoption

ABSTRACT

While automated vehicle (AV) development continues to progress rapidly, how the public will accept and adopt automated vehicles remains an open question. Using extensive survey data, we apply cluster analysis to better understand consumer perceptions toward potential benefits and concerns related to AVs with regard to factors influencing their AV adoption likelihood. Four market segments are identified – ‘benefits-dominated,’ ‘concerns-dominated,’ ‘uncertain,’ and ‘well-informed.’ A random parameters multinomial logit model is then estimated to identify factors influencing the probability of respondents belonging to one of these four market segments. Among other influences (such as socio-economic and current travel characteristics), it is found that ‘Millennials’ have a higher probability of belonging to the well-informed market segment, ‘Gen-Xers’ with a lower probability to the uncertain market segment, and ‘Baby Boomers’ with a higher probability to the concerns-dominated market (relative to the ‘Great Generation’). We also study the individuals’ expressed likelihood of AV adoption using separate random parameters ordered probit estimations for each of the four market segments. The substantial and statistically significant differences across each AV consumer market segment underscore the potentially large impact that different consumer demographics may have on AV adoption and the need for targeted marketing to achieve better market-penetration outcomes.     

Investigating user perception on autonomous vehicle (AV) based mobility-on-demand (MOD) services in Singapore using the logit kernel approach

The rapid development of autonomous vehicles (AV) in recent years has drawn the attention of numerous countries in terms of its feasibility for use and deployment as individually-owned vehicles or for large-scale fleet planning and deployment as a mobility-on-demand (MOD) service. Singapore is no exception to this global trend and in her pursuit to be smart and car-lite, numerous efforts are made to have AV trials in place and test out their potential deployment in the city state. As one of the many prerequisites of AV planning, public perception on AV plays a vital role when designing any potential AV deployment scheme. As such, a stated preference survey comprising both online survey and field interviews/surveys, was performed island-wide to understand how commuters in Singapore perceive about different AV-based MOD modes. The logit kernel model is adopted to determine how different preference attributes and key demographic indicators can affect the use of AV-based MOD services over other existing first- and last-mile connection modes. The model results have identified how demographics such as gender, age, housing type, education level and income level can influence the travel mode choice. Also, the impacts brought by individuals’ stated preferences over convenience, privacy and familiarity of ride-hailing apps are also investigated. Such findings can provide useful insight in planning future car-lite towns and implementing AV-based MOD services in these towns.

     

Fuel economy testing of autonomous vehicles

Environmental pollution and energy use in the light-duty transportation sector are currently regulated through fuel economy and emissions standards, which typically assess quantity of pollutants emitted and volume of fuel used per distance driven. In the United States, fuel economy testing consists of a vehicle on a treadmill, while a trained driver follows a fixed drive cycle. By design, the current standardized fuel economy testing system neglects differences in how individuals drive their vehicles on the road. As autonomous vehicle (AV) technology is introduced, more aspects of driving are shifted into functions of decisions made by the vehicle, rather than the human driver. Yet the current fuel economy testing procedure does not have a mechanism to evaluate the impacts of AV technology on fuel economy ratings, and subsequent regulations such as Corporate Average Fuel Economy targets. This paper develops a method to incorporate the impacts of AV technology within the bounds of current fuel economy test, and simulates a range of automated following drive cycles to estimate changes in fuel economy. The results show that AV following algorithms designed without considering efficiency can degrade fuel economy by up to 3%, while efficiency-focused control strategies may equal or slightly exceed the existing EPA fuel economy test results, by up to 10%. This suggests the need for a new near-term approach in fuel economy testing to account for connected and autonomous vehicles. As AV technology improves and adoption increases in the future, a further reimagining of drive cycles and testing is required.     

Governing autonomous vehicles: emerging responses for safety,liability, privacy,cybersecurity, and industry risks

ABSTRACT

The benefits of autonomous vehicles (AVs) are widely acknowledged, but there are concerns about the extent of these benefits and AV risks and unintended consequences. In this article, we first examine AVs and different categories of the technological risks associated with them. We then explore strategies that can be adopted to address these risks, and explore emerging responses by governments for addressing AV risks. Our analyses reveal that, thus far, governments have in most instances avoided stringent measures in order to promote AV developments and the majority of responses are non-binding and focus on creating councils or working groups to better explore AV implications. The US has been active in introducing legislations to address issues related to privacy and cybersecurity. The UK and Germany, in particular, have enacted laws to address liability issues; other countries mostly acknowledge these issues, but have yet to implement specific strategies. To address privacy and cybersecurity risks strategies ranging from introduction or amendment of non-AV specific legislation to creating working groups have been adopted. Much less attention has been paid to issues such as environmental and employment risks, although a few governments have begun programmes to retrain workers who might be negatively affected.     

Shared versus private mobility: Modeling public interest in autonomous vehicles accounting for latent attitudes

Emerging autonomous vehicles (AVs) and shared mobility systems per se will transform urban passenger transportation. Coupled together, shared AVs (SAVs) can facilitate widespread use of shared mobility services by providing flexible public travel modes comparable to private AV. Hence, it may be conjectured that future urban mobility is likely an on-demand service and AV private ownership is unappealing. Nonetheless, it is still unclear what observable and latent factors will drive public interest in (S)AVs, the answer to which will have important implications on transportation system performance. This paper aims to jointly model public interest in private AVs and multiple SAV configurations (carsharing, ridesourcing, ridesharing, and access/egress mode) in daily and commute travels with explicit treatment of the correlations across the (S)AV types. To this end, multivariate ordered outcome models with latent variables are employed, whereby latent attitudes and preferences describing traveler safety concern about AV, green travel pattern, and mobility-on-demand savviness are accounted for using structural and measurement equations. Drawing from a stated preference survey in the State of Washington, important insights are gained into the potential user groups based on the socio-economic, built environment, and daily/commute travel behavior attributes. Key policies are also offered to promote public interest in (S)AVs by scrutinizing the marginal effects of the latent variables.     

Evaluating the impacts of shared automated mobility on-demand services: an activity-based accessibility approach

Transportation - Autonomous vehicle (AV) technologies are under constant improvement with pilot programs now underway in several urban areas worldwide. Modeling and field-testing efforts are...     

Autonomous vehicles: who will use them,and will they share?

ABSTRACT

The advent of road transport automation is suggested to be one of four key technological transitions that could amount to a major transformation in mobility practices. Specifically, fully Automated Vehicles (AVs) might replace the current private car owner user model with fleets of on-demand synchronously-shared automated taxis. However, significant barriers to this vision becoming the norm remain. This paper examines two critical user-acceptance aspects of the transition: willingness to adopt AVs, and willingness to share an AV with others, particularly strangers. Our novel survey (n?=?899) included a choice experiment featuring four future full automation transport services (private, synchronously/asynchronously shared, and public). Cluster analysis examined respondents' preferences and their demographic and psycho-social characteristics. We uncover significant uncertainty about willingness to adopt automation and sharing, and important differences between clusters within our sample. For example, under 50% of participants report willingness to use an AV over their normal mode, or would prefer an automated option to a current human-driven option. Our findings raise critical questions for policymakers and transport authorities. Not least, how can AV technologies help realise the environmental and social benefits of widespread vehicle sharing in a context of a travelling public that still prefers its privacy on-the-move?     

Planning the driverless city

ABSTRACT

AV technologies have the potential to transform urban landscapes and existing transport systems and networks. Yet, the utopian imaginary of reduced automobile ownership and a new shared economic future sits in tension with suggestions that car dependency, urban sprawl and transport inaccessibility will be exacerbated. The issues are situated in a complex governance landscape involving an influential private sector who are increasingly setting the agenda. The public sector may be forced into reacting to the new innovations by information technology and automobile companies as they are introduced into existing built environments. Drawing on an extensive literature base and interviews with public sector planners, this paper reveals the conceptual gaps in the framing of AV technology – the prospects and limits – and how these are conceived. The paper raises questions about the role urban planning can play in the rollout of AVs in order to anticipate and mediate unwanted built environment and socio-spatial impacts, as well as reconciling the ambition of transport innovation with the public purpose of planning.     

Dynamic autonomous vehicle fleet operations: Optimization-based strategies to assign AVs to immediate traveler demand requests

Motivated by the growth of ridesourcing services and the expected advent of fully-autonomous vehicles (AVs), this paper defines, models, and compares assignment strategies for a shared-use AV mobility service (SAMS). Specifically, the paper presents the on-demand SAMS with no shared rides, defined as a fleet of AVs, controlled by a central operator, that provides direct origin-to-destination service to travelers who request rides via a mobile application and expect to be picked up within a few minutes. The underlying operational problem associated with the on-demand SAMS with no shared rides is a sequential (i.e. dynamic or time-dependent) stochastic control problem. The AV fleet operator must assign AVs to open traveler requests in real-time as traveler requests enter the system dynamically and stochastically. As there is likely no optimal policy for this sequential stochastic control problem, this paper presents and compares six AV-traveler assignment strategies (i.e. control policies). An agent-based simulation tool is employed to model the dynamic system of AVs, travelers, and the intelligent SAMS fleet operator, as well as, to compare assignment strategies across various scenarios. The results show that optimization-based AV-traveler assignment strategies, strategies that allow en-route pickup AVs to be diverted to new traveler requests, and strategies that incorporate en-route drop-off AVs in the assignment problem, reduce fleet miles and decrease traveler wait times. The more-sophisticated AV-traveler assignment strategies significantly improve operational efficiency when fleet utilization is high (e.g. during the morning or evening peak); conversely, when fleet utilization is low, simply assigning traveler requests sequentially to the nearest idle AV is comparable to more-advanced strategies. Simulation results also indicate that the spatial distribution of traveler requests significantly impacts the empty fleet miles generated by the on-demand SAMS.     

Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: opportunities,barriers and policy recommendations

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) represent a potentially disruptive yet beneficial change to our transportation system. This new technology has the potential to impact vehicle safety, congestion, and travel behavior. All told, major social AV impacts in the form of crash savings, travel time reduction, fuel efficiency and parking benefits are estimated to approach $2000 to per year per AV, and may eventually approach nearly $4000 when comprehensive crash costs are accounted for. Yet barriers to implementation and mass-market penetration remain. Initial costs will likely be unaffordable. Licensing and testing standards in the U.S. are being developed at the state level, rather than nationally, which may lead to inconsistencies across states. Liability details remain undefined, security concerns linger, and without new privacy standards, a default lack of privacy for personal travel may become the norm. The impacts and interactions with other components of the transportation system, as well as implementation details, remain uncertain. To address these concerns, the federal government should expand research in these areas and create a nationally recognized licensing framework for AVs, determining appropriate standards for liability, security, and data privacy.     

A Time-use Model for the Automated Vehicle-era

Automated Vehicles (AVs) offer their users a possibility to perform new non-driving activities while being on the way. The effects of this opportunity on travel choices and travel demand have mostly been conceptualised and modelled via a reduced penalty associated with (in-vehicle) travel time. This approach invariably leads to a prediction of more car-travel. However, we argue that reductions in the size of the travel time penalty are only a crude proxy for the variety of changes in time-use and travel patterns that are likely to occur at the advent of AVs. For example, performing activities in an AV can save time and in this way enable the execution of other activities within a day. Activities in an AV may also eliminate or generate a need for some other activities and travel. This may lead to an increase, or decrease in travel time, depending on the traveller’s preferences, schedule, and local accessibility. Neglecting these dynamics is likely to bias forecasts of travel demand and travel behaviour in the AV-era. In this paper, we present an optimisation model which rigorously captures the time-use effects of travellers’ ability to perform on-board activities. Using a series of worked out examples, we test the face validity of the model and demonstrate how it can be used to predict travel choices in the AV-era.