系统电磁兼容层次化预测方法研究

介绍了电磁兼容预测的概念和特点,从系统级角度分析电磁干扰问题,分4个层次来论述电磁兼容预测分析的总技术路线,并提出了系统电磁兼容预测的层次化方法.此外,还运用层次化预测方法,结合实际工程,给出了电磁兼容预测的一般分析步骤.该方法和分析步骤可为电磁兼容的理论分析和工程实践提供参考.     

大连港集装箱吞吐量预测

以大连港历史数据为依据，运用指数平滑、回归分析、弹性系数法等对大连港集装箱吞吐量进行预测分析，并在原有预测方法的基础上提出一种新的组合预测模型，通过对各预测结果的比较。证明此模型在港口吞吐量预测中有较高的精度。     

人的失误模型在船舶溢油事故应急中的应用分析

船舶交通事故问题的预测一直是业内研究人员十分重视的研究课题。分别采用回归预测法、时间序列预测法、灰色理论预测法和贝叶斯统计预测法等不同方法,结合国内某港引航站近十多年来船舶引航总量和事故的实际情况,进行了比较分析和对未来情况予以预测。着重就贝叶斯方法在港口船舶引航风险预测中的运用进行了探讨。结论证明贝叶斯估计方法得到的结果具有良好的预测效果。     

港口船舶引航风险预测

船舶交通事故问题的预测一直是业内研究人员十分重视的研究课题。分别采用回归预测法、时间序列预测法、灰色理论预测法和贝叶斯统计预测法等不同方法，结合国内某港引航站近十多年来船舶引航总量和事故的实际情况，进行了比较分析和对未来情况予以预测。着重就贝叶斯方法在港口船舶引航风险预测中的运用进行了探讨。结论证明贝叶斯估计方法得到的结果具有良好的预测效果。     

基于ANN的非线性组合预测方法在水运货运量预测中的应用

组合预测方法可综合利用各单项预测方法提供的有用信息,有效地提高预测的精度,已被广泛运用到水运货运量预测中。本文将利用人工神经网络技术的非线性映射能力,建立一种非线性组合预测模型,并将之应用到水运货运量预测中。实践表明,这种新的预测方法可大大提高水运货运量预测精度。     

港口货物吞吐量预测方法探讨

对常用的港口货物吞吐量预测方法进行了系统分析,并以重庆涪陵港为例,综合运用回归分析法、平均增长率法、弹性系数法、产销平衡法等定量预测方法和专家预测法等定性预测方法进行吞吐量预测,经与相关资料比较,表明其预测结果是合理的,同时本文采用的预测方法也可为其它港口的货物吞吐量预测提供参考。     

洋山港区某抛石围堤航标灯基础工后沉降预测

基于抛石斜坡堤提出一种工后沉降量预测方法,通过e-p曲线和钻孔探摸方法预测工后沉降量,结合实际沉降监测数据进行工后沉降预测。以洋山深水港区某抛石围堤航标灯建设为例,运用该方法进行预测,在实际工程中得到较好的印证。     

基础沉降的组合预测法

通过对基础沉降的发生过程、特点及灰色Verhulst模型特点的分析,提出可以根据施工过程中的观测资料,运用基于BP神经网络的组合预测模型对不同时刻的基础沉降进行预测;首先分别利用灰色Verhulst模型和BP神经网络模型对基础沉降进行估算,然后利用人工神经网络中的BP神经网络对采用前2种模型所得的结果进行组合预测。计算实例表明,使用该组合预测方法所得到的预测结果比单独使用灰色Verhulst模型或BP神经网络模型所得到的预测结果的总体误差要小,因而该方法是可行的、有效的;可以运用到实际工程中。     

基于ANN的非线性组合预测方法在水运货运量预测中的应用

组合预测方法可综合利用各单项预测方法提供的有用信息，有效地提高预测的精度．已被广泛运用到水运货运量预测中。本文将利用人工神经网络技术的非线性映射能力。建立一种非线性组合预测模型，并将之应用到水运货运量预测中。实践表明，这种新的预测方法可大大提高水运货运量预测精度。     

机载电子设备间电磁干扰预测分析及抑制研究

针对机载电子设备之间存在的电磁干扰问题,对设备间的电磁干扰进行预测分析,给出了预测分析的基本传播方程,结合实际的电磁干扰预测数据,对设备间的各因素进行预测,最后给出了几种能有效抑制电磁干扰的方法。     

Commercial public bus transport services in Germany: How a market in motion struggles with its regulatory framework

After decades of stagnation, the competitive market for commercial public bus transport services in Germany is beginning to move. Nevertheless, compared to the total market volume, the number of cases where competition is observable remains small. An empirical analysis of competition in the commercial services market as compared to competition in the non-commercial services market confirms that entry barriers do exist. These barriers clearly impede competitive developments in this embryonic market, which relies on the market initiatives of operators to develop. The paper identifies a key entry barrier in the institutional framework: for potential market entrants, the overall uncertainty regarding competitive procedures for commercial services is significantly higher than usual in tendering procedures. This high uncertainty poses the main disadvantage for newcomers as compared to incumbents.     

An empirical study of the impacts of operating and market conditions on container-port efficiency and benchmarking

Despite the growing amount of research on container-port efficiency and benchmarking, the literature on the subject is yet to provide stable and consistent results across researchers and in relation to dynamic operating and market conditions. In this paper, we formulate a number of operational hypotheses to test the sensitivity of benchmarking results to port market and operating conditions namely production scale, cargo mix, transhipment ratio, operating configurations, and working procedures. A series of data envelopment analysis (DEA) models are used to measure the operational efficiency of 420 container terminal decision-making units from 2004 till 2010. The results show that variations in operating conditions highly impact terminal efficiency and that future work on container-port performance and benchmarking should take into account the structure and mechanisms underpinning the operations of container ports and terminals.     

积极开展市场营销促进港口快速发展

从港口业的特点出发,结合市场营销理论,分析了港口市场营销过程中的4P因素,论述了港口开展市场营销的必要性以及目前存在的主要问题,最后从产品、价格、渠道和促销四个方面提出了港口开展市场营销的策略。     

海洋运输运价保值市场的研究和创新

国际上创设的多种运费衍生市场，理论上能够起到运费保值的作用，但因市场交易清淡，保值范围非常有限。针对国际集装箱运输市场的特点，本文提出了运费保值市场的架构：创设以做市商为中心的、零售性质的远期运费合同市场，以利于中小型外贸公司规避运价的不确定性，并建立集装箱远期运费协议市场，以便做市商、大货主和大船运公司在衍生市场进行运费保值。     

政府对港口产业结构的管制效应分析

港口作为一个特殊的基础产业部门,其市场的结构形态也具有一定的特性,为此,本文结合港口产业的基本特点,对港口产业中港口数量及由此形成的市场结构等问题进行了理论探讨。     

Market role and regulation of extensive urban minibus services as large bus service capacity is restored - Case studies from Ghana, Georgia and Kazakhstan

In some cities, the degeneration and collapse of formal bus services has allowed large-scale minibus operations to become established but, over time, city authorities and municipal bus operators regain at least part of their operating capacity and seek to regain their market share. This paper examines and compares three case studies: Accra, Tbilisi, and cities of Kazakhstan. It examines the development of the urban minibus services market as conventional bus services went into decline, the gradual re-emergence of large buses, how the authorities have viewed the minibuses as circumstances change, and market and regulatory strategies followed by city authorities.     

船舶低硫燃油系统的应用分析

介绍低硫燃油的特性及其关键技术,分析低硫燃油市场供应情况,结合工程应用实际,提出了4种应用方案,经过对比分析,提出了一种面向工程实际的推荐方案。     

A cause of oversupply and failure in the shipping market: measuring herding behavior effects

ABSTRACT

The shipping market is volatile. In general, the shipping market cycle shows four stages, through—recovery—peak—collapse, while a upward trend lasts for 7~8 years and a downward trend for another 7~8 years. So the market’s bubble is not sustainable but always ends in a recessionary trend. The economic cycle is common knowledge and an axiom of the shipping industry, but many ship-owners take no account of it. Previous study stated that ship-owners’ fears, triggered by a violently changeable market, make them mimic the crowd mind or herd mentality, following market sentiment. This study aims to measure the effects of herding behavior (HB), triggered by market sentiment, on the shipping market. We attempt to address two research questions: (1) How does HB arise, and what course does it follow? (2) How many vessels (or how many tons) were purchased under the influence of HB? We estimate that 50.5% (227.8 vessels) of the total vessels or 30.4% (3,670.2 tons) of the total tonnage were purchased under the influence of HB. Looking at international finance, we found that ship investment HB is a very strong factor of the recent shipping market, at least in Korea.     

北亚得里亚海集装箱港口群市场前景分析

欧洲发达市场是全球集装箱海运重要板块,对其市场发展潜力分析是中资企业参与欧洲集装箱港口投资的必要前提。集装箱港口市场发展潜力受多种因素影响,以腹地生产法进行市场预测是当前的主流方法,但该方法主要以外贸需求作为变量,存在片面性。针对当前海外港口集装箱市场分析中存在的问题,提出最优路径模型下港口集装箱市场规模预测,并以亚得里亚海北部港口群作为典型案例予以说明。分析表明,最优路径模型在大范围集装箱港口市场规模分析中具有较好的适应性,能够为投资决策提供参考。     

航运市场中的牛鞭效应研究

揭示了航运市场中存在的牛鞭效应。结合航运产品的特点及H.L.Lee对牛鞭效应的研究,分析了对航运产品需求的预测、船舶建造周期、批量运输及运输的不平衡性、运输价格的波动、定量供应与短缺博弈是产生航运市场牛鞭效应的主要原因,并由此提出了相应的对策框架。