Ranking the substantive problems in the Dutch Cost–Benefit Analysis practice

This paper investigates the perceptions of key participants in the Dutch Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) practice regarding substantive problems when appraising spatial-infrastructure projects with CBA. Two research methods were applied. Firstly, 86 key participants in the Dutch CBA practice were interviewed in-depth in order to obtain an overview and a ranking of perceived substantive problems with CBA in the Netherlands. Secondly, the people interviewed were also asked to fill in a written questionnaire in which they were asked to rank the substantive problems once again, in order to improve the validity of the ranking; 74 of the participants completed this questionnaire. The most important conclusions of this paper are, firstly, that key participants in the Dutch CBA practice consider ‘problems with the estimation of the non-monetized project effects’ as the most important substantive problem cluster and ‘problems with monetizing project effects’ as the second most important substantive problem cluster. Secondly, key participants in the Dutch CBA practice consider the ‘problem analysis’ in a CBA to be a very important substantive problem. Thirdly, there is, in a broad sense, consensus among the different groups in the Dutch CBA practice concerning their perception of the seriousness of problem clusters and the way they rank the problem clusters. Fourthly, a large part of the substantive problems mentioned by the key participants in the Dutch CBA practice are non-specific CBA problems.     

Does the choice model method and/or the data matter?

The opportunity to have seven data sets associated with a stated choice experiment that are very similar in content and design is rare, and provides an opportunity to look in detail at the empirical evidence within and between each data set in the context of a range of discrete choice estimation methods, from multinomial logit to latent class to scale multinomial logit to mixed logit, and the most general model, generalized mixed multinomial logit that accounts for preference and scale heterogeneity. Given the problems associated with data from different countries and time periods, we estimate separate models for each data set, obtaining values of travel time savings that are then updated post estimation to a common dollar for comparative purposes. We also pooled all data sets for a scaled MNL model, treating each data set as a set of three separate utility expressions, but linked to the other data sets through scale heterogeneity. This is not behaviourally appropriate with MNL, latent class or mixed logit. The main question investigated is whether there exists greater synergy in the willingness to pay evidence within model form across data sets compared to across model forms within data sets. The evidence suggests that there is a relatively greater convergence of evidence across the choice models, with the exception of generalized mixed logit, after controlling for data set differences; and there is strong evidence to suggest that differences between data sets do matter.     

The “Ubernomics” of ridesourcing: the myths and the reality

ABSTRACT

This paper looks at the economics of ridesourcing (or app-based ride-hailing) with a particular focus on the US. It brings together the rather dispersed literature on the subject focusing on the economic characteristics of the underlying industry and sets this within the broader context of transportation economics. In particular, it sorts out the realities of ridesourcing from some of myths that were perpetrated in its early days and, in many cases, still persist. It considers some of the empirical evidence that has emerged regarding the key parameters that determine the way Uber and the like operate, and the welfare implications of this, together with comments on some of the regulatory reactions to the new transportation platform. It concludes by suggesting some ways in which recent developments in economic could move forward our understanding of the industry as technologies and markets change.     

Deregulating the bus industry in Britain — (A) the proposals

Abstract

Over the past five years there has been an unprecedented stream of transport legislation in Britain, and policy has switched significantly towards the provision of services commensurate with market demand. The most important single document has been the recent publication of the White Paper on ‘Buses’ which could bring about dramatic changes in the road passenger transport industry. This introductory section outlines the arguments for and against change and then summarizes the proposals.     

Estimated mortality of mammals and the costs associated with animal–vehicle collisions on the roads in the Czech Republic

We use questionnaires to estimate the mortality of mammals on the roads in the Czech Republic and estimate the costs involved. Annual mortality was quantified for eleven species/groups of mammals, and the highest mortality was recorded for common species such as Lupus europaeus and Capreolus capreolus. The vehicle damage is most frequent after collisions with ungulates, which also impose the highest vehicle repair costs. If the animal loss were compensated by releasing animals into the wild, the highest costs would be associated with the release of C. capreolus and L. europaeus. Overall annual compensation costs would exceed €100 million.     

Use of combinatorial auctions in the railway industry: Can the “invisible hand” draw the railway timetable?

Rail capacity is currently administratively allocated in Europe, whereas the economic literature has often contemplated the opportunity of introducing market mechanisms, auctions in particular, into this industry. This article tries to fill the gap between practice and theory. It first describes the properties of rail capacity (rigidity and non-homogeneity) and shows that because of its very nature, this capacity must be allocated through combinatorial auctions. As identified by the economic literature, using combinatorial auctions introduces a lot of complexity (winner determination and information burden) into the allocation process. To deal with this complexity, some form of centralized planning is necessary to design the right market mechanisms and to allocate capacity. This could have strong consequences on the current deregulation process.     

“Cutting costs to the bone”: the Portuguese experience in renegotiating public private partnerships highways during the financial crisis

Transportation - How can governments renegotiate public private partnerships (PPPs) in order to reduce public expenditures? In 2011, in the aftermath of the financial and sovereign debt crisis,...     

Waterproofing Underground Structures:Lessons from the Past,Systems for the Future

The paper describes some of the key issues that need to be addressed in the design and execution of underground structures to ensure their long term suitability as watertight units and outlines through practical examples of structures that have not achieved their design requirements which situations need to be considered. Waterproofing is not an exact science but a combination of theoretical knowledge and practical experience based on the five key factors: Environment, Design, Materials, Application and Use of the Structure.In conclusion the paper outlines the advances in crack control to date that can provide the necessary long term guarantees.The adoption of re - injectable crack inducers permitted the Client to save over 10% on construction costs and reduced the construction time by six months.     

Transport deregulation and the economy wide implications of the wheeler‐Gilmour hypothesis

This paper focuses on the effects of deregulation of motor carriers in Australia. It is particularly concerned with the implications of regulatory reform beyond the transport sector and uses a general equilibrium approach to examine the economy wide effects of deregulation. Among other things the paper shows that the effects of deregulation are not evenly distributed across all types of industries. Furthermore it concludes that the magnitude of the effects from deregulation in any given industry is not necessarily correlated with the share of total costs devoted to the purchase of transportation services.

     

Do the selected Trans European transport investments pass the cost benefit test?

This paper assesses the economic justification for the selection of priority projects defined under the auspices of the Trans-European transport network. Three different transport models are used to analyse the costs and benefits associated with the current list of 30 priority projects. Most of these projects fail the cost-benefit test and few of the economically justifiable projects would need European subsidies to ensure their viability. Two remedies are proposed to minimise the inefficiencies surrounding project selection. The first remedy would oblige each member state or group of states to perform a cost-benefit analysis, followed by peer review and ensure that the results were published publicly prior to the ranking of federally funded priority projects. The second remedy would require federal funding to be made available only for projects with important spillovers to other countries in order to avoid pork barrel political behaviour.     

Computer aided design of the operation and the track layout of the passenger railway stations: interactive—graphic model AFAIG

This paper presents a software model for the planning of passenger railway stations. The aim of this model is the elaboration of operation programs within stations, and the evaluation of projects for the track layout.

This model allows the planner to elaborate interactively an operation program, through a man‐computer dialogue, in a way similar to the manual procedure with which he is familiar. On the other hand, the model includes an optimization algorithm which can be used to automatically set routes to the trains, through the station.     

When is getting there half the fun? Modeling the liking for travel

This paper analyzes empirically measured values of Travel Liking––how much individuals like to travel, in various overall, mode-, and purpose-based categories. The study addresses two questions: what types of people enjoy travel, and under what circumstances is travel enjoyed? We first review and augment some previously hypothesized reasons why individuals may enjoy travel. Then, using data from 1358 commuting residents of three San Francisco Bay Area neighborhoods, a total of 13 ordinary least-squares linear regression models are presented: eight models of short-distance Travel Liking and five models of long-distance Travel Liking. The results indicate that travelers’ attitudes and personality (representing motivations) are more important determinants of Travel Liking than objective travel amounts. For example, while those who commute long distances do tend to dislike commute travel (as expected), the variables entering the models that hold the most importance relate to the personality and attitudes of the traveler. Most of the hypothesized reasons for liking travel are empirically supported here.     

How perceptions mediate the effects of the built environment on travel behavior?

This study provides a better understand the mechanism underlying the built environment-behavior connection by systematically exploring the relationships between the objective (actual) environment and people’s perceptions of the environment, and their relative effects on travel behavior using the Stimuli-Organism-Response framework. Based on data for the Twin Cities, this study explores (1) How do perceptions mediate the effects of the objective environment on travel behavior? (2) How do travel attitudes influence the effects of perceptions on travel behavior? Among the eight empirical models tested here, six are consistent with the framework: objective built environment affects travel behavior through its influence on perceptions. Moreover, the framework fits walking and bicycling behavior better than transit and driving behavior. Furthermore, travel attitudes greatly moderate the influences of perceptions on travel behavior.

     

Who are the eco-bicyclists?

This study presents insights into the profile of eco-bicyclists. The empirical analysis is based on the estimation of binary logistic regression models. Four subsets of independent variables were used in this empirical analysis, namely: (i) demographic factors, (ii) economic variables, (iii) variables regarding environmental awareness and (iv) perceived advantages of biking. Empirical results suggest that younger people are probably more willing to cycle for environmental reasons. In general, women are more likely to be eco-bicyclists than men. However, the results suggest that marital status and educational level are not statistically significant factors. Rather, environmentally-conscious and low income consumers are more probable to be eco-bicyclists than others. Our analysis is focused on the usage of bicycle for environmental reasons because we expect that those people not being characterized as eco-bicyclists are a potentially relevant market segment for developing an efficient sustainable mobility strategy in Greece.     

The benefits to the public of vehicle legislation — Attempts to measure the unmeasurable

Although inevitably there are grey areas, a distinction may be drawn between environmental disbenefits arising from vehicles which cause annoyance, such as noise, or loss of peace and quiet, vibration, visual intrusion, severance, and those which endanger life and limb. Legislation implemented to reduce either category will inevitably generate costs.It is suggested that in evaluating legislation relating to environmental nuisance, attempts should be made carefully to measure the benefits, while for legislation when life and limb is involved a cost-effectiveness approach should be adopted. Methods currently available to measure environmental nuisance arising from vehicles, for example opinion surveys, observing the effect of changes in some independent indicator, and simulation exercises are critically examined. Using evidence from the Urban Motorway Committee Reports, Noise Advisory Council, Transport and Road Research Laboratory surveys on the effect of traffic in selected High Streets, and the Realistic Environment Assessment Laboratory, Social and Community Planning Research ping-pong technique, studies of house price differentials, and estimates of willingness-to-pay for exclusion facilities, an attempt is made to highlight the dilemma that while benefits of environmental nuisance legislation should be carefully weighed against the anti-pollution costs, techniques currently available for measuring such benefits are very underdeveloped.Paradoxically there is a far more clear-cut procedure for valuing benefits of policies affecting life and limb. Official accident evaluation policy in the U.K. is described, and legislation affecting life and limb is examined.Finally, difficulties of effectively enforcing legislation of both environmental nuisance and life and limb categories are illustrated.     

What are the value and implications of two-car households for the electric car?

The major barriers to a more widespread introduction of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) beyond early adopters are the limited range, charging limitations, and costly batteries. An important question is therefore where these effects can be most effectively mitigated. An optimization model is developed to estimate the potential for BEVs to replace one of the conventional cars in two-car households and to viably contribute to the households’ driving demand. It uses data from 1 to 3 months of simultaneous GPS logging of the movement patterns for both cars in 64 commuting Swedish two-car households in the Gothenburg region.The results show that, for home charging only, a flexible vehicle use strategy can considerably increase BEV driving and nearly eliminate the unfulfilled driving in the household due to the range and charging limitations with a small battery. The present value of this flexibility is estimated to be on average $6000–$7000 but varies considerably between households. With possible near-future prices for BEVs based on mass production cost estimates, this flexibility makes the total cost of ownership (TCO) for a BEV advantageous in almost all the investigated households compared to a conventional vehicle or a hybrid electric vehicle. Because of the ubiquity of multi-car households in developed economies, these families could be ideal candidates for the initial efforts to enhance BEV adoptions beyond the early adopters. The results of this research can inform the design and marketing of cheaper BEVs with small but enough range and contribute to increased knowledge and awareness of the suitability of BEVs in such households.     

Route structures in air transportation—the situation in the federal republic of Germany

This paper deals with route structures in air transportation in general and describes the derivation of such structures. Based on an extensive analysis of scheduled air traffic in Germany, an overview of the situation in domestic and international air travel is given. In particular, relationships were found which permit—in connection with a number of influencing factors—to derive from the present situation route structures, which are also valid for a future year.

This approach was used for the assignment of origin‐destination‐passenger flows to air network routes in a forecast of demand and services in commercial air transportation of the Federal Republic of Germany for the year 1995.     

How could the collaboration between airport and high speed rail affect the market?

This paper discusses the possibility of collaboration between airport and high speed rail (HSR) to improve the airport’s gateway function. We apply the model which consists of three players, carriers, passengers, and the airport. In order to estimate the impact of the collaboration, we carry out some numerical computations with the model under the twin hub three zones network. Our results show that the collaboration between HSR and the smaller demand airport can reduce the congestion at the bigger demand airport, which suggests the collaboration can be preferable for carriers and passengers; it would improve the social welfare.     

The History of the Transport Future—Evaluating Dutch Transport Scenarios of the Past

Abstract

This paper examines 42 business‐as‐usual (BAU) scenarios for future transport and traffic development in the Netherlands from the period 1970 to 2000. An important aspect of these scenarios is that they indicate the potential future state of the transport system if the policies in place at the time continue unchanged, thus raising issues which may require a policy response. This paper shows that in most of the important BAU transport scenario results of the past in the Netherlands, such as future car use and transport emissions, the policy makers were not misled. The prognoses for traffic congestion are an important exception as they underestimated the congestion problems that would arise. This paper shows that, based on the research it examines, BAU transport forecasting is an inaccurate practice. It is recommended that the BAU scenario designer communicates this high inaccuracy, enabling the policy maker to include the inherent future uncertainty in their decision‐making.